We are all tied at 4-4 in the B1G-ACC Challenge. Tonight DraftKings has a 7-game DFS slate featuring 5 of the 6 remaining games to determine conference supremacy. The two non B1G-ACC matchups are not short on intrigue either.
Redhot DePaul takes on a Texas Tech team that needs a win badly. The undefeated Oklahoma State team tangles with the troubled and turmoiled Georgetown Hoyas. Overall it is shaping up to be a great night of basketball and if we here @CBBDFS are as on target as we were last night there will be a lot of Bucketheads winning a lot of money tonight! Let’s Go!!!
#5 Virginia @ Purdue
Let’s talk about what makes this game interesting because the DFS portion of this writeup will be small. With an over under at 102.5 there isn’t much playable in this one.
Purdue (4-3) is surprisingly a -3 point favorite over the #5 team in the nation and defending national champs. UVA hasn’t really been tested yet this year so the trip to West Lafayette should tell us a lot more about the Cavs and their DFS “stars” according to the pricing.
Mamadi Diakite (F, 7300) needs 30 to hit value, and he has only been over 30 DK one time this year and that was against James Madison. Braxton Key (G, 6500) is out after under going wrist surgery, so you’d think that would open up some value, but again we are talking an implied 50 points for this team.
The best I can do is maybe give you a price saver at guard. Casey Morsell (G, 4300) is a capable shooter and getting all the minutes. If Eastern locks down Kihei Clark (G, 6400) it could lead to a lot of Morsell looks. I don’t hate Tomas Woldentensae (G, 3900) as a punt either.
Nojel Eastern (G, 4800) mentioned above is a defensive stopper, so not interested. Matt Haarms (F, 6900) and Jahaad Proctor (G, 6800) are fairly priced but there are better options on this slate.
Like UVA I can only give you potential value plays. I like Trevion Williams (F, 4500). He’s an absolute black hole when he gets the ball and just needs minutes to get his 4x. Sasha Steanovic (G, 4100) could be a deep cut as well. Minutes have been down lately but he can flat out shoot it.
Notre Dame @ #3 Maryland
Maryland has lost 6 straight games in the B1G-ACC Challenge and all 5 since joining the Big Ten. That looks to change tonight as Vegas has the Terrapins as -9 point favorites at home hosting Notre Dame.
Currently #3 in the nation, Maryland is led by Jalen Smith (F, 7800) and Anthony Cowan (G, 7500). Smith is playing well right now, but Cowan is on an absolute heat check.
Both are very playable with Cowan bordering on must play for me. After those two, Aaron Wiggins (G, 6600), Darryl Morsell (G, 5300), and Eric Ayala (G, 4500) make up the wing rotation. They all play a ton as the Terps aren’t particularly deep. Down low, Donta Scott (F, 3800) will get some minutes in the post.
After Scott it is anyone’s guess who gets the remaining 10-15 minutes in the paint. Whomever it is will have to contend with DFS darling John Mooney (F, 8500). The Irish center is still underpriced at 8500. With two 50+ DK efforts under his belt this year it will be awfully hard to fade him when just 34 fantasy points hits value.
After Big John, everyone on ND seems to be priced pretty favorably. Juwan Durham (F, 6000) has gone 6x in 2/3 and is averaging about 1.5 fppm when on the floor. At one of the guard spots it seems Rex Pflueger (5200) is grossly underpriced. Sexy Rexy has 30+ DK in 3-straight and was priced at 7.1k to start the season.
Also in the backcourt Prentiss Hubb (G, 5000) and T.J. Gibbs (G, 6500) have the ability to break out with a hot shooting night. Gibbs is a bit more consistent as reflected in his price. A pair of 4600 guys wrap up the playable ND players as Nate Laszewski (F) and Dane Goodwin (G) will get minutes, but I’d rather find a way to pay up for Rex.
Georgetown @ Oklahoma State
It is not a happy holiday season for Hoya fans. James Akinjo has left and Josh LeBlanc has been kicked off the team, along with a few other likely suspensions coming to bench players. It’s a hot mess in DC and it’s not going to get any better tonight against an undefeated Oklahoma St. team that just held Ole Miss to 37 points. The good news is both teams like to play fast, so we’ll want some exposure here for sure.
Akinjo’s absence creates massive usage opportunity, so the Mac McClung (G, 5100) show should be in full effect. McClung is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re going to get, but I’d count on 30+% usage and a full minute share tonight. He’s your classic boom or bust GPP option, but $5100 is probably the lowest price he’ll see again this season if you are so inclined.
Omer Yurtseven (F, 8300) has elite usage and rebounding rates, but needs to avoid foul trouble and will have a tough time down low against Yor Anei. He’s probably a fade for me given all the question marks on this team. Jamorko Pickett (F, 4900) and Jagan Mosely (G, 4600) should see more PT with LeBlanc gone. Pickett feels like a safe 4x+ option while Mosely is more of a wait and see, as his usage is currently “nearly invisible” on Kenpom.com.
I’ll do some more digging, but I’m assuming Terrell Allen (G, 3700) becomes the new PG with Akinjo gone. He is a proven commodity, as he was a 30+ min per game starter for UCF before transferring. Keep an eye on starting lineups, but he’s a potential value play at a super low price point.
Georgetown was 310th in turnover % with an elite PG on their team. Now that he’s gone, the turnover rate could get weird. Issac Likekele (G, 8000) is 21st in steal rate in the nation, including at least 3 steals in 5 straight games. He does a bit of everything and has scoring upside, as shown by his 53 DK performance at Syracuse. There are probably some better guard options in the mid-$7k range, but overall he feels like a very safe option at home.
Yor Anei (F, 7500) has been a complete stud this year. He’s got the #1 block rate in the nation, top 200 rebounding rates, and has even started scoring a bit. He has 32 DK in 3 straight. His offensive usage lowers his ceiling, but he’s a safe 4x option at home against an undisciplined Hoya team. Lindy Waters (G, 6300) has 27 DK in 4 of his last 5, so another safe 4x type option, but due to the balanced offensive attack his ceiling is also low.
Hard to believe the Crime Dog Cam McGriff is only $5300, down $1600 from the start of the year. He averaged 12 ppg and 7 boards last year and is coming off a solid game against Ole Miss. He’s a bet on talent play at a soft price. Thomas Dziagwa(G, 4300) rounds out the starters and he’s averaging 10 points per game and can shoot the rock. He has GPP upside as a 25+ minute player who has a 6x and 7x on his game logs so far.
Texas Tech @ DePaul
Raise your hand if you picked DePaul to go undefeated thru 8 games, including road wins at Iowa and Minnesota. Anyone? Anyone? The Blue Demons are playing incredible basketball right now. The same cannot be said for preseason media darling Texas Tech, who are coming off back to back neutral site losses. The Jahmi’us Ramsey injury isn’t helping the Red Raider cause, and he’s officially a GTD with a hamstring injury. Even if he does play, at $8100 it’s too much risk and not enough reward.
With Ramsey out of the lineup, Beard played 4 guys 35+ minutes and my guess is Holyfield would have played more too if it wasn’t for foul trouble. V-Tech transfer Chris Clarke (G, 6800) does it all, which is what we want from our DFS plays. He’s in great form as well with 35 and 41 DK points in his last 2. If Ramsey is out, I feel really good about Clarke’s chances to excel.
Kyler Edwards (G, 6900) also does a bit of everything and has more offensive usage than Clarke, but he feels a hair overpriced to me. TJ Holyfield (F, 6700) hasn’t broken 21 DK in 4 straight, so hard to trust him. Davide Moretti (G, 6200) continues to be a scoring dependent player that hasn’t seen a significant increase in usage compared to last year. I’d rather spend $1400 less on freshmen Terrence Shannon, Jr. (G, 4800), who has 4-5x in 4 straight games, including a season high 36 minutes when Ramsey missed v. Creighton.
They may be building a Paul Reed (F, 8700) statue outside the DePaul Arena, as he’s been a beast this season. He is an elite rebounder, makes plays defensively, and has multiple 50 burgers this season. Unfortunately, he’s up against a solid Tech defense, so limit expectations a bit.
KU transfer and Chicago native Charlie Moore, Jr. (G, 8100) has 28% usage and top 20 assist rates in the nation and his form is complete fireballs right now. It’s a scary matchup, but he’s at home and has extreme usage so you have to consider him given his recent form:
Jaylen Butz (F, 6400) has some splash games, but feels overpriced. Romeo Weems (F, 6000) is a stud freshmen and has plenty of upside, but he’s in a bit of a slump. I prefer Jalen Coleman-Lands (G, 5000) for $1000 less. He plays 30+ minutes/game and has 4x/6x in his last 2. He’s a bit scoring dependent, so that’s the only concern. Overall, you have to limit expectations a bit against a tough Chris Beard defense, but I don’t mind if you dip your toe in the Blue Demon water for some exposure.
Wake Forest @ Penn State
PMR is “Possible Minutes Remaining” on a slate. We all start with 320 and as our players go that number reduces to zero. Some DFS players like to have PMR late and will load up plays that tip at 8pm instead of 6pm. The mental psychology reassures the gambler… there is still a chance. While this is a fools practice, I’d be lying if I said I haven’t used the tip off time to break a tie between two players.
This game tips at 8pm and has the highest over-under (143.5) of the later tips. Penn State is an -11.5 point favorite and has been very DFS friendly this year. Therefore, for one night only, lets call him PMR Lamar.
Tonight Lamar Stevens (F, 8200) is your ace in the hole. He accounts for 40 PMR and will get 40 DK on one of the last games on the night. The PSU senior has been over 4x value in his last five games and there is no reason to think the trend stops tonight.
If the steady 4-5x isn’t your thing, Stevens’ frontcourt mate Mike Watkins (F, 7900) might be. Watkins is a bit of a rollercoaster in with extreme highs (59 DK in 26 min) and extreme lows (11.5 DK in 16 min.
For the Nittany Lions perimeter Myreon Jones (G, 6300) and Myles Dread (G, 6100) are the main attraction. Jones is in better form right now. Jamari Wheeler (G, 5100) is an intriguing option as well. He does a bit of everything and keeps getting more and more mintues.
From the Wake Forest side of things it is all about Brandon Childress (G, 8200) who has been pretty consistent this year, but hasn’t show much of a ceiling. For the same price you should probably go Stevens. Chaundee Brown (G, 7100) is an efficient player but not some one I am targeting.
In the post Olivier Sarr (F, 7000) is averaging near a double-double (13.1 and 9.5) so he is in play. Isaiah Mucius (F, 5000) has show the ability to 5x but his game log is scary.
Wisconsin @ NC State
The road hasn’t been kind to the Badgers so far this season. They came up short against a solid Saint Mary’s squad in Sioux Falls to start the season and just returned from a disastrous trip to the BK where they dropped 2 in a row. Now they try to bring some Kohl Center magic to Raleigh as they square off against the Wolfpack. Wisconsin is predictably slow paced, while the Pack will want to push tempo, currently top 40 in offensive possession length. Less than a third of NC State’s opponents’ shots come from 3. The Badgers would like that number to be closer to 45% even though they’re only hitting 30% of them. Wisconsin is top 15 in defensive rebounding % and should have a decisive edge there. Look for the Pack to force turnovers, and while they’re not a prolific 3-point shooting team, they should get some open looks.
Ethan Ha…err…Nate Reuvers (F, 7300) hasn’t quite lived up to the long lineage of Wisconsin centers yet, but worth noting he is at his lowest price since the $5800 DK glitch to start the season. Also worth noting, he does have a 50DK game and coming off a near 5x game. The key for him is rebounding and while NC State has length, they are just average on the boards. Give Nate a look in GPP.
The rest of the Badgers don’t look very appealing in this matchup. Aleem Ford (F, 5200) has attractive usage (23%), shot share (25%), and a nice smile, but he’s 2x on the road and 2/12 FG in last 2. Other than Kobe King (G, 5500), who’s priced way too high, the other guards are too shot dependent to be more than GPP darts.
Markell Johnson (G, 7400) is coming off a 43DK game and leads the team in usage (26%) and shot share (25%). Don’t let the 66% minute share fool you, he missed the Georgia Tech game and limited in blowouts. He played 39 minutes against Memphis and I expect similar PT here. Johnson does a little of everything and can really get cooking when the shot is falling. He’s a strong cash and GPP option against a team allowing 35% from 3.
CJ Bryce (G, 7700) has had some big games which is why he’s priced so high. His biggest games have come with double digit rebounding efforts. We know Wisconsin is solid on the boards, so that limits his upside, also being more of an interior scorer. I expect a 4x ceiling tonight. Devon Daniels (G, 6100) has always been similar to Bryce statistically but minutes, usage, and shot share have dropped lately for some reason, so be cautious. Don’t have a ton of confidence in DJ Funderburk (F, 5800) for his price and Manny Bates (F, 5000) isn’t a serious threat right now. Alright, now I need your attention Bucketheads…
Jericole Hellems (F, 4800) is mispriced. He’s played 31 mpg in last 3 going for 5x/6x/5x. He can board, get to the line, and also has 6 steals in that time. Matchup is bad and ownership may be high, but solid value option if you need one.
#6 Ohio State @ #7 North Carolina
The undefeated Buckeyes beat a top 50 team in Cincinnati and completely took apart a ranked Villanova team at home. As we saw with Wisconsin, however, the road is a dangerous place… Ohio St was a top 25 defensive team last season, so it’s not a surprise to see them ranked #2 on KenPom for Adj Def. Eff. The Buckeyes are #299 in tempo, a stark contrast from the paced-up Tarheels. The team that can impose its will should come away with the W. UNC should have an advantage on the boards, but they are not shooting the ball well at all right now (47% 2P, 30% 3P).
Cole Anthony (G, 9300) is coming off his worst game (30DK in 28 mins) against a stout Oregon defense. His price tag is finally adjusting to his performance, down $800 from his peak. Might not be a bad time to take him in a GPP lineup actually. Ownership may be lower than normal with the bad matchup and injury concerns. Keep your eyes on Twitter…
We’re not seeing any price relief with Garrison Brooks (F, 7200) who has 3x in last 2. That’s partially due to matchup and mostly to do with the emergence of Armando Bacot (F, 7200) who has 2 50DK games under his belt already. The freshman will be up and down and this matchup is as bad as it gets, but right now he’s a live GPP play. Brooks could get loose on some o-reb put-backs which are his specialty.
Leaky Black (G, 4900) is banged up and limited in practice. If he’s a no-go, think about either Christian Keeling (G, 4000) or Andrew Platek (G, 4100). The former seems to have gotten the bulk of the minutes against Oregon. Regardless, Brandon Robinson (G, 5700) is worth a look. DK still trying to figure out how to price him. I think he’s safe in cash and even worth a shot in GPP as we haven’t seen his ceiling yet.
Kaleb Wesson (F, 7600) is sort of a mystery at times, however there’s a strong correlation of output to minutes this season which is nice. He’s kept his fouling under control which has allowed him to go 35 mins against Cincy and Nova. Rebound upside should be there which will put him in the hunt for a double-double. I think you need to consider him for GPP, even in a hostile road environment.
Coach Holtmann is still trying to figure out the 4 spot. I’m not seeing any certainty there yet, so Kyle Young (F, 5800), EJ Liddell (F, 4600), and Alonzo Gaffney (F, 3600) are GPP darts at best, with Young, as the starter, being least risky. Big bro Andre Wesson (F, 5100) seems to have gotten over the hump with his injury. He had 31 DK in 20 mins last game on perfect shooting. He flashed at times last year, but not sure I fully trust him yet.
I badly want DJ Carton (G, 4700) on a roster when he smashes a slate because it’s going to happen. Usage and shot share are high (24%) and assist rate respectable (26%). He needs more minutes, but an up-tempo game may favor him. IDK, maybe you should listen to your heart this time.
CJ Walker (G, 4500) seems to be locked onto a 20 mpg schedule. He does have some familiarity with the Tarheels. Holtman may feel safer with him as he did with Nova, so he could be worth a shot. The 2 starting wings, Duane Washington (G, 4400) and Luther Muhammad (G, 4000), I wouldn’t even mention if they weren’t so cheap, but they’re both shooting extremely well, so if one can get hot, 5x isn’t way out of bounds.