If you were born the year the B1G-ACC challenge started, congratulations you are old enough to drink. This Conference clash for the Commissioner’s Cup turns 21 years old with the tip offs tonight. Cheers.
The ACC leads the all-time series 12-5-3. That margin is padded by a 10-0 ACC run during the first decade while the B1G is 5-2-3 since. However the ACC is 2-0-1 in their last three years. In a result of tie the Commissioners Cup stays with the previous year’s winner therefore it has been with the ACC since 2016.
This year’s Challenge features 14 games over the next 3 days. The first two are on tonight’s 4-game slate as Miami comes to Illinois, and Clemson travels to Minnesota. Full write-ups are below of course.
Tomorrow we get six games including new #1 Louisville hosting blazing hot #4 Michigan and #10 Duke in East Lansing to take one #11 Michigan State. Wednesday we get another six games highlighted by #6 Ohio State going to the Dean Dome to take on #7 North Carolina. We should have all the CBB and DFS goodness we can handle this week! So let’s get to it, Bucketheads!
Miami @ Illinois
The B1G/ACC Challenge kicks off tonight with a couple middle of the pack teams. Miami is probably better than their record indicates with losses to two ranked teams (Louisville and Florida) and a loss to a Connecticut team that is also better than advertised. The Hurricanes have been successful shooting from deep at 37% from 3, but they’ve been average defensively and have really struggled rebounding. Illinois isn’t as paced up as the last couple of years, but they will want to push the tempo here. The Illini should have a decisive advantage on the boards as they lead the nation in Off. Reb %, but it’s worth noting, with the exception of Arizona (their only loss), the best team Illinois has played is Hawaii #164.
Breakout freshman Kofi Cockburn (F, 8600) has feasted against smaller lineups thus far, but he’ll go up against a legit 7-footer in Miller. That said, Illinois will run the offense through him and should have double-double potential with rebounding upside. He is overpriced, so GPP only consideration. Giorgi Bezhanishvili (F, 5600) has played better of late going 5x in 3 of last 4. He has struggled with length in the past however and will likely see a lot of 6’10 Waardenburg.
Andres Feliz (G, 8400) is the best rebounding guard and distributor on the team, which means he doesn’t have to score to make a difference. Like Kofi, he is also overpriced which makes him a gamble as he’s only hit 5x twice at that price and 3x against the 2 best teams he’s played (Arizona & Hawaii). Ayo Dosunmu (G, 7100) started to find his scoring groove the last couple of games (20/24 pts). He is GPP only but has breakout power if the Illini can get going in transition. Trent Frazier (G, 5300) is extremely efficient but usage and shot% are way down. Matchup is favorable as Miami is average defending the 3 so can consider in GPP.
The big news with Miami this week is the return of Keith Stone (F, 3000) from injury. He’s a stretch 4 that previously played at Florida where, 2 seasons ago, he averaged 24 mpg and 42% from 3. Uncertain how much he’ll play or how he’ll fit, but for $3000, it’s worth the risk to see if he can blow up.
Kameron McGusty (G, 7000), Dejan Vasiljevic (G, 6300), and Chris Lykes (G, 6000) will be responsible for a majority of the scoring output. Lykes’ stats are way down this year across the board. We keep telling you to buy low, but so far it just isn’t happening for him. 2x/3x/3x in last 3. Illinois has changed their defense this year, so they aren’t as susceptible against the 3 as they have been in the past. Yet, I wouldn’t call it a strength as they’re still allowing 32% 3P%. If Miami wants to win, McGusty and Vasiljevic will need to knock down shots. Both are GPP only with the latter more appealing due to price.
Rodney Miller (F, 5200) is a fade, he’ll have a tough matchup against Kofi. If you want to take a shot with one of the bigs, look at Sam Waardenburg (F, 4500). He’s not going to score in bunches, but he can grab enough boards and block a couple shots to hit value.
Florida A&M @ Kansas State
This game feels like those leftovers from Thanksgiving that are still in your fridge 5 days later. You feel obligated to eat them because you took the time to put them in Tupperware, but if you end up pulling the trigger, you’ll likely feel unsatisfied.
Florida A&M scored 48 vs. USC and 51 vs. Seton Hall, neither of which are world beaters on defense. Now imagine the same team playing against a team that ONLY cares about defense. Rod Melton, Jr. (G 4700) will take a bunch of shots if you like melton money on fire.
The fighting Bruce Webers are coming off losses to Pitt and James’ alma mater Bradley. Before those two losses, they scored 61 points at home to Kenpom’s 339th ranked team. The Wildcats are playing more like the Wildcan’ts.
We want to target guys that can do a bit of everything, and that’s exactly what Cartier Diarra (G, 8100) does. He’s got high 20s usage rates, top 5 assist rate, top 50 steal rate, and can rebound for a guard. He’s also courageous enough to wear #2 when his last name is almost spelled like diarrhea. He’s a high floor play tonight despite “blowout” potential.
Xavier Sneed (F, 7200) is another strong option at a lower price point. Sneed is going to play 30+ minutes and has 30+ DK in 3 of his last 4. If you need a price saver to round out your roster, DaJuan Gordon (G, 4100, Mike McGuirl (G, 4200), or Shaun Williams (G, 3800) are worth a look. Williams played 17 minutes in his 2nd game back from suspension and took 8 shots. Beyond that, I’m not forcing any other Wildcats given the recent form and horrible 125 o/u.
Clemson @ Minnesota
As we continue the Monday edition of the B1G/ACC challenge, we head to Minneapolis to see the Golden Gophers host the Tigers of Clemson. These teams mirror each other in a lot of ways. Neither team plays particularly fast, although Clemson is playing faster than last year and Minnesota slower. Both teams defend well inside the arc. Clemson does give up a lot of 3s to teams, nearly 41% of their opponents’ points come from downtown. Clemson has done a good job forcing turnovers though, and area where the Gophers struggle.
Daniel Oturu (F, 9000) is the price king tonight and has been a load lately. He’s had games of 54DK and 59DK in the last 4 (DePaul/Utah). There’s a strong correlation between his minutes and output which makes him a relatively safe GPP play, even at high expense. The matchup is not favorable, but he shouldn’t kill you even if he doesn’t hit 6x.
Marcus Carr (G, 8300) has quieted since his strong start going 4x/3x/1.5x in last 3. Would’ve been nice to see his price drop some because the matchup is good. With a massive 35% assist rate and ability to score, good spot to bounce back. Payton Willis (G, 6500) is a GTD, which is too bad because this is a great matchup for the shooter. Tre’ Williams (G, 3800) is his backup and Matthew Hurt (F, 3500) could also see some extra PT. Gabe Kalscheur (G, 5500) is shot dependent, but he’s getting up volume and Tigers vulnerable vs the 3. Alihan Demir (F, 4600) isn’t a bad flyer; averaging 4x across last 4.
Tevin Mack (G/F, 7900) is finally living up to the promise he showed early on in his college career. He’s gone 5x in 2 of his last 5 and still hitting close to 4x in the other 3 so should be considered in cash formats, however Minnesota is a plus rebounding team and guards the 3 well (30%) so matchup not great.
Aamir Simms (F, 7700) is coming off back to back 6x performances. Usage and matchup aren’t great, but last two opponents were TCU and Colorado so proven to get it done anyway, plus some blocked shot upside. Scoring dependent John Newman III (G, 6400) is overpriced and should only be seen as a dart. Al-Amir Dawes (G, 6100) has struggled his last 2 and no price relief so looking elsewhere. Curran Scott (G, 4500) has been getting 25 mpg in last 3 and could see some more if Chase Hunter (G, 4600) is out again.
South Dakota @ Washington
South Dakota is 258th in defensive efficiency and does not create turnovers, so give a boost to the Huskies offense tonight. They are also shooting 47% from 3 as a team, tops in the nation. They’ll need to let em fly vs. the 2-3 zone of the Huskies to have a chance, but with a 141 o/u the Coyotes are playable.
6’10 forward Tyler Hagedorn (7400) has 27% usage and is 18-24 from 3 this year. He’s got a 57 burger and 43 burger on his game log and the Huskies are 311th defending the 3. Stanley Umude (G, 6800) has higher usage than Hagedorn and is a great rebounder for a guard. He’s also coming off 51 DK points last game. Both had mid-20s DK points against Arkansas, so manage expectations a bit, but at worst they are kinda fun GPP flyers if you want to get weird. Triston Simpson, Tyler Peterson, and Cody Kelley are sub-20 usage guys who don’t do much in the ancillary stats, but you could take a flyer on Cody Kelley (G, 4500), who has 5x in back to back.
Outside of Hagedorn, there is no one that can guard Isaiah Stewart (F, 8200) down low. He feels like a really safe 4x option, but hasn’t shown break the slate upside despite being a top 10 freshmen in the nation. Does that change tonight?
Jaden McDaniels (F, 7600) is playing all the minutes he can handle and should have a massive size advantage. Similar to Stewart, he hasn’t shown a ceiling yet, but his pedigree against an inferior opponent makes him a solid GPP play. Naz Carter (G, 7800) is taking 27% of the shots and is probably the safest option of the 3, but you don’t really win many GPPs playing it safe.
Quade Green (G, 5800) is priced up $700 despite the fact he hasn’t broken 25 DK points this season. Hameir Wright (F, 4800) is a low usage player, but does a bit of everything and feels like a safe 4x if you need someone to finish off your lineup in this price range. I’m weirdly intrigued by this game, so looks like another evening of late night Pac-12 heat is in my future. Life is good, Bucketheads!!