Well the B1G-ACC Challenge is behind us, but the DK tourneys never stop and tonight we have a little three game set that tips at 7:00 CST. So before we look ahead to the 5-gamer tomorrow, and speculate on what should be an amazing Saturday slate, let’s give this slate the attention it needs.
Oklahoma, Mississippi State, and Auburn all have pretty comfortable lines against schools from lesser conferences. While the games might not be as amazing as other slates on the horizon we @CBBDFS are going to do our best to make the following reads fun and entertaining. Because our goals is for our Bucketheads to win all of the money, so you gotta respect the effort!
Oklahoma @ North Texas
OU heads to the Super Pit in Denton, TX for a matchup against North Texas. What a fantastic name for an arena. The Super Pit!! Makes me think of some type of random wrestling segment the WWE would have come up with back in the glory days of professional wrestling. Considering the ugly 128 o/u, we’ll focus partly on the game and mostly on old school wrestlers. So, Bucketheads, are you ready? I said, Are you Ready!?!?
Jim Ross’s Boomer Sooners give their starters the bulk of the minutes, but not even the Million Dollar Man would want to pay up for these prices. Kristian Doolittle (F, 8200) has 27% usage and strong rebounding rates and he’s scored mid-30s against bad teams so far this year. He’s a 4x option that might help you win an Intercontinental Championship (cash game), but he’s not going to win you the World Heavyweight Championship (GPP).
Austin Reaves (G, 7700) plays the most minutes on the team and has scored double digits in every game this year. He has some upside with 36+ DK in 3 game this year. Given the short slate, he’s a playable option, as 30+ DK from Austin wouldn’t be a stunner…
Brady Manek (F, 7400) started the year hot, but the stretch 5 has come to life with less than 22 DK in 3 of his last 4. Speaking of coolers, Jamal Bienemy (G, 5200) hasn’t hit 15 DK points in 4 straight games. You might want to tap out before considering these two jabronis.
De’Vion Harmon (G, 5500) has also hit the freshmen wall, with less than 14 DK points in back to back games. His kenpom usage defines him as a role player, which isn’t good either. North Texas does turn the ball over a ton, so maybe Harmon can fill up the ancillary stats? He’s a GPP play for hardcore risk takers only. De’Vion, get the tables!!
Umoja Gibson (G, 5300) is the highest priced Mean Green. He is taking 29% of the shots, has a 21% assist rate, and is shooting 40% from 3. He also has 28-31 DK points in 4 straight games. I’m willing to take a risk on this sharpshooter at home.
The majority of the Mean Green are pre-show level talents that aren’t quite ready for the prime time. Beyond Gibson, the only other guy we may want to target is 6’8 Deng Geu (F, 4800), who is averaging 9.5 points and 7 boards and hasn’t scored less than 5x in his last 5 games. Seems like a really safe value option at a cheap price…if ya smell…..what your boys @cbb_dfs…..are cookin!!
Lousiana Tech @ Mississippi State
The battle of bulldogs is one of our 7:00 CST tips this evening. Mississippi State is an -8 point favorite and the over under sits at 140.5. After writing up this game I feel if you are looking for a GPP boom or bust guy to get into your line-up, come back and give this a re-read.
Tyson Carter (G, 8400) has four 40 DK games, a 28 point outing, an 11 rebound outing, and a 10 assist game this year. He has two outlier games sub 20 DK, but he and Reggie Perry (F, 8700) are the offense for Mississippi State.
Perry, the slate’s price king, is an excellent rebounder and defender which makes him a little safer than Carter as reflected in the price. I feel Tyson has a safe floor though. If you want someone more volatile that has broken a slate before, consider Robert Woodard II (G, 8000). He’s an elite rebounder for a guard and if he gets hot can really fill it up. RW2 had 59 DK on 11/17, the last time the Bulldogs played at home
No other MSU player exceeds 5k as the aforementioned trio dominates the ball. Iverson Molinar (G, 4600) and D.J. Stewart Jr. (G, 4700) make up a freshman backcourt that get steady minutes. Molinar blew up and went for 6.7x when we @CBBDFS called him out on our podcast last Wednesday. Maybe if I call him out here he can go for 31 DK tonight.
Finally Abdul Ado (F, 4300) looks enticing at the price, but you are paying for just rebounds and a block or two. Anything he does offensively is an absolute bonus. He will play 22+ minutes though.
For LA Tech Daquon Bracey (G, 7100) is the name you recognize from last season, but his form is a little rough of late falling short of 4x in his last 5. Mubarak Muhammed (F, 6800) is the name you need to know, as the 6’7 senior has taken advantage of every opportunity this year totaling 3 double-doubles in his last 5 and earning more and more minutes.
Tech runs a 4-guard attack most of the time so Kalob Ledoux(5800), Derric Jean (5300) and Amorie Archibald (5100) will see plenty of minutes. JaColby Pemberton (5400) missed the last game with an injury and I am having a hard time finding any status updates so for now not in consideration.
Overall this team is pretty deep and will play 9 guys 10+ minutes. A little too much balance for my taste, but I will consider Muhammed in a line-up or two.
Furman @ #14 Auburn
Sometimes you have to work things out. Numbers tell you one thing, but logic tells you another. Such is the case with this Auburn-Furman affair. It has the highest spread on the slate (12.5) and the largest over-under (145) despite two top 80 defensive units.
By the metrics, this looks like it could be Auburn’s toughest test to date, and oddly every one of the 6-Tiger regular rotation players is at a season high price point. This is frustrating from a DFS perspective as Furman plays good defense and has held all of their opponents to less than 65 points excluding fast paced Alabama (81). I find it hard to believe Auburn gets their Vegas-implied 78 tonight so give me the under and the Paladins to stay within +12.5.
As mentioned the Tiger top guys are all priced way up, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t still value. Six guys play meaningful minutes for Bruce Pearl. That’s it. The hard part is picking who will have the big game.
If you want consistency and a decent floor Samir Doughty (G, 8500) and Isaac Okoro (F, 6600) are your guys. J’Von McCormick (G, 7200) has played well in his last 4, averaging 9 assists per game in that span.
The next three regulars are all forwards. Danjel Purifoy (6100) and Anfernee McLemore (5600) are stretch 4 types that were fun to play $800 ago. Austin Wiley (6200) is averaging 1.31 fppm, but is only playing 20 minutes a game. The math (1.31 x 20) equals 26.2 fantasy points which is over 4x so can’t argue math.
Like Auburn, Furman isn’t particular fond of going to their bench ranking 339th in bench minutes per KenPom. Clay Mounce (F, 7500) is their highest priced player. He is a do-it-all small forward who will be leaned on heavily in this one in many areas (scoring, rebounding, etc.).
Jordan Lyons (G, 5900) is the team’s starting PG. He’ll play max minutes and has a 26% usage and shot rates. Despite his recent form I have a good feeling about him tonight…
Noah Gurley (F, 5900) and Jalen Slawson (F, 5200) will start at the 4/5 spots, neither seem that appealing. I don’t mind Alex Hunter (G, 5000), the starting 2 who will play all the minutes, stuff ancillary stats and get up 10 shots. Mike Bothwell (G, 4900) is the 6th man, but can’t recommend him over Hunter.