Tonight’s 6 game slate features 6 ranked teams, headlined by #4 Michigan @ #1 Louisville and #10 Duke @ #11 Michigan St. Can the B1G recover after an 0-2 start on Monday? Can Michigan contain Jordan Nwora? How will Duke’s rotation look without Cassius Stanley? Which Sparty team will show up? How much exposure should we have to a Pitt team with nice pricing but an ugly game environment? So many questions!!!
In a few hours, these questions will be answered. Until then, your boys @cbb_dfs have you covered with a deep dive into each game on the DraftKings slate. We are providing you the foundational information to build your best lineups. The only question left now is how much money will our Bucketheads win tonight?
Spoiler alert, it’s going to be ALL THE MONEY!!
Iowa @ Syracuse
This game had a bit higher over/under than I anticipated, but the Hawkeyes do like to push pace and the Cuse zone hasn’t been as formidable as in years past. Over 50% of opponents shots have been from 3 against the Cuse zone and the Orangemen give up more assists per made field goal than any team in the country. Iowa gave up 83 to San Diego St. and 93 to DePaul, so a nice pace up game against a vulnerable defense for the Orangemen.
Luka Garza (F, 8900) has been a machine for Iowa. He’s got 30% usage, top 25 defensive rebounding rates, and top 100 block %. The Cuse zone also gives up a lot of offensive rebounds. I don’t love his price, but Garza has between 35-53 DK points in 5 of 7 games this year, so 4x+ seems very likely.
Joe Wieskamp (F, 6500) is option 2A, does a bit of everything, and can stretch the D from behind the arc. He’s coming off 31 DK against an elite Texas Tech defense, so he’s in play as a GPP. CJ Fredrick (G, 5500) is seeing 30 min/game and coming off 3 straight in double figures with assist upside.
The biggest question mark is whether to play Jordan Bohanan (G, 4700) or not. As you recall, Bohanan was expected to miss the season but magically returned. He had 20 real points in 33 min against Tech two games ago, but followed that up with only 23 minutes in a loss to San Diego St. Guards that can shoot it from deep and create opportunities for their teammates profile extremely well against Cuse, but minutes will remain the key question.
For Cuse, it’s all about Elijah Hughes (F, 8600), who gets a pace up game, has mid 20s usage and assist rates, and is even shooting 40% from 3. He has at least 19 real points in 4 straight games and feels like a really safe cash option against a weak defense.Buddy Boeheim (G, 6300) is fully scoring dependent. I prefer Joseph Girard, III for $300 less, who has at least 6 assists and 2 steals in 3 straight games and is a natural scorer, as proven by the 50 ppg he averaged his senior year of high school. Marek Dolezaj (F, 5900) is a try hard with miniscule usage. While he’s a good role player, he’s not what our Bucketheads are in search of on a hot slate. Finally, Quincy Guerrier (F, 4800) has taken some minutes from Sidibe recently. He’s an excellent rebounder and potential dart throw.
#24 Butler @ Mississippi
The Butler Bulldogs find themselves ranked for the first time in the LaVall Jordan era, but tonight they are slim +1 point underdogs in Oxford.
The over-under sits at 130.5 so Vegas sees this as a defensive showdown. DK agrees it seems as no player is over 7600 on either side, so let’s dig in to see where the value is at.
For Butler their high man is Bryce Nze (F, 7400) and I can’t play Nze at that price. He hasn’t had a doublele-doule since the second game of the season. It’s cray to think he is still higher priced than Kamar Baldwin (G, 7300). I assume that will be the last time this year it happens.
Baldwin has 30% usage and a 34% shot rate. He has been closer 5x his current price tag in 4 of his last 5 games. He has a safe cash floor and GPP upside so get him in.
I can’t really recommend another Bulldog. Sean McDermott (F, 5700) is expected to play and can break a slate with his shooting ability, but out side of him in GPP there isn’t much to like.
For Ole Miss it’s all about their backcourt. Breein Tyree (G, 6700) is value priced due to a poor shooting outing last game (3/11) but this is the SEC’s leading returning scorer and I think he can go 4x on points alone this evening.
Devontae Shuler (G, 6400) is one of my favorite players, but in bad form recently so can’t recommend. The last guard I’ll mention is Blake Hinson (5900) who is pretty safe for 4x.
At forward KJ Buffen (7600), like Nze, is oddly priced the highest on his team, which is just off for a 3rd option. He is a no go. I’m okay if you want to play Khadim Sy (F, 5000) as he has the feel of a good player who’s breakout game is coming soon. Should be a safe 4x either way.
#4 Michigan @ #1 Louisville
The marquee matchup of the night isn’t Duke @ Michigan St somehow. After an impressive showing at the Battle of Atlantis, beating 2 ranked teams and winning the tournament, Michigan captured the heart of every media pundit, ready to hand them a golden ticket to the final four. What they were rewarded with however is a trip to Louisville to face the new number one team in the nation. No matter what anyone tells you, Michigan’s success is primarily due to their red hot shooting, going 47% from 3 in that tournament, which is 13% better than they shot as a team last season and about 10% better than they shot in the first 4 games. Louisville is only allowing teams to shoot 28% from 3 thus far, although they do let teams shoot the 3 (41% 3PA/FGA). Both teams are on elite defensively and on par rebounding. Michigan tends to force the action inside only allowing 25% 3PA/FGA. Louisville’s best opponent has been #82 Miami.
Zavier Simpson (G, 8500) has been the dynamo for the Wolverines. He leads the team in usage at 26% and has a gaudy 50.8% Assist Rate. Last time he was priced this high was against UNC where he was held to a season low 22DK. Louisville only allows 40% assists on made baskets, so matchup isn’t great. I would fade him in cash tournaments and consider him a boom/bust play in GPP with matchup risk. Jon Teske (F, 8200) has been rock solid in games he plays more than 30 minutes, averaging close to 5x. Should be a safe cash play with minimal upside.
Isaiah Livers (F, 6500) is shooting 51% from 3 but isn’t doing much else. He’s only hit 5x once at that price. Only consider him in GPP if you think his hot shooting will continue at the KFC Yum! Center. Eli Brooks (G, 5700) is essentially the same player statistically, just cheaper. David Dejulius (G, 4600) is a solid cash play while Franz Wagner (G, 4600) has played 26 mpg since returning from injury 3 games ago. His production is trending upwards and feels like a buy-low option with smash potential.
Jordan Nwora (F, 8400) is the #1 ranked player on KenPom if you’re into advanced metrics. As far as DFS goes, he’s averaging 4x at that price, with a couple 5x games and a couple stinkers. The matchup isn’t scary and the lights are bright however, so I will take his 32% usage and 36% shot share into a cash or GPP lineup.
Dwayne Sutton (F, 6900) has 2 5x games in last 3, but this needs context. He had 14 and 15 rebounds in those games (he’s 6’5), and he’s the second most efficient player in the country, shooting 83% from 2. He might have a great game, but that’s a hard fade for me dawg.
I don’t really like Steven Enoch (F, 6600) against Teske; don’t see him being a scoring threat and rebound upside is limited. I prefer Malik Williams (F, 4700) who has gone 4x/5x in last 2 games, as he comes back from injury.
#17 Florida State @ Indiana
In what has a sneaky chance to play out as one of the better games on this slate, Florida State at Indiana features a solid over/under (137), tight line (IU -1.5), and two teams that don’t mind playing with temp (FSU 99th, IU 83rd).
Both teams play solid defense and feature some fun freshmen. Starting with the Seminoles, Patrick Williams (F, 5400) is a 5-star who has yet to have his breakout game. Hamilton seems to be holding him back minutes wise, because his usage and shot rates are both over 22% and he is a plus defender with strong offensive efficiency numbers per KenPom. One of these days he may get 30 minutes and break a slate. Sadly, for most of us conservative types, we’ll have to see it first.
Part of the reason Williams has been restricted is the excellent play of Devin Vassell (G, 6100) who esstitially plays the same position. Vassell has been good in 4 of his last 5 and has established himself as the teams 2nd option.
This is something M.J. Walker (G, 5500) has never done, so avoid him. Trent Forrest (G, 6800) remains the DFS man for FSU. Regardless of what he scores you can bank 4+ rebounds, 4+ assists, and 2+ steals.
At forward there is a bit of a logjam, but Raiquan Gray (F, 4500) looks to be reclaiming his role at the 4-spot. I love him tonight to keep his upward trend with smash potential. Malik Osborne (F, 4700) and Dominik Olejniczak (F, 3800) will factor in at the center spot, but my gut tells me it will be a Balsa Koprivica (F, 4200) night down low. He is a good looking freshman as well who seems to be getting comfortable.
Unlike the unproven freshmen for FSU, Indiana has been led by one all year. Trayce Jackson-Davis (F, 8300) has been sensational going 4x in 5/6 and 5x in 3/4. He is worth his price tonight.
After TJD, it’s hard to find a Hoosier I love. Rob Phinisee (G, 5200) would be a lock at that price if we knew he was playing. When he is out Devonte Green (G, 5600) gets a usage bump so he feels safe. Joey Brunk (F, 4400) has seen an uptick in minutes and has gone 6x in 2/3 but feels risky so I am staying away.
Rutgers @ Pittsburgh
Unlike Cuse/Iowa, I won’t be giving 1800 characters worth of detail for a slow tempo game with a 125 over/under. For Pitt, I’m always drawn to Xavier Johnson (G, 6200). He has 29+ DK in 3 of 4 and is a proven stud. Justin Champagnie (G/F, 6100) has at least 12 points and 6 boards in 4 straight games.
Trey McGowens (G, 5800) is a GPP option based on his pedigree and his price has dropped $1600 since the start of the year. 6’9 senior Eric Hamilton (F, 4400) has started the last 2 games and produced back to back double-doubles, making him an incredible value option tonight. I’m honestly good with all 4 of these guys despite the horrible game environment.
Rutgers has really balanced usage, with 6 players taking over 20% of the shots when they are on the floor. Geo Baker (G, 7800) has defensive upside, but feels a bit overpriced in a slow tempo game. Ron Harper, Jr. (G/F, 6700)has the highest offensive ceiling of the group with 4x/5x his last 2, but he’s a GPP play only. Myles Johnson (F, 5800)has at least 2 blocks and 8 boards in 3 straight. Based on price, I prefer the Pitt options in this game, but certainly don’t go overboard on exposure in a low possession snoozer.
#10 Duke @ #11 Michigan State
Much ado about top ranked teams’ shocking upset losses in the early CBB season. Sparty had one against Virginia Tech last week; Duke, of course, against SFA. Cue up the hot take machine. Bucketheads aren’t interested in that, we see 2 teams with 4 elite plays tonight, a couple key injuries, and decent combined score in what should be a tight game. Both teams are elite in offensive & defensive efficiency. Duke, in particular, is 4th in 3PA/FGA as only a quarter of opponents’ FGA are from 3. On the other side, 64% of Sparty’s made baskets come off an assist.
Cassius Winston (G, 8000) is priced down slightly after going 4x/5x in last 2. He had 20 and 10 against Tre Jones last year in the regional final and the Blue Devils have given up big games to other PGs this year (Akinjo, Dotson etc). Winston should get up 15+ shots and get the floor game going, so I’m considering him in cash and GPP formats.
Xavier Tillman (F, 7900) is priced about right. Duke is forcing the action inside, so there should be plenty of opportunity for shots and boards, just be wary of foul trouble. The Blue Devils have been susceptible to blocked shots early on as well. Aaron Henry’s (F, 5800) minutes have been all over the place as has his pricing. This is the lowest he’s been all season FWIW, definite GPP-only play for the low usage, high efficiency player.
Sparty sort of falls off a cliff after those guys. As Izzo is trying to play matchups and find chemistry, the minute distribution has been sporadic. The talented freshman, Malik Hall (F, 3900) has been getting more time at the 4 lately since his breakout half against Seton Hall. Gabe Brown (F, 4400) seems to be locked in at the 3 getting 25 mpg in the last 5. Rocket Watts (G, 4400) has a 30 DK game and can definitely flash in GPP. Marcus Bingham (F, 4300) got the start against Georgia but only 7 mins last game; could be an option if Izzo wants more length. Meanwhile, Thomas Kithier (F, 4300) seems to have fallen out of favor as minutes and output have decreased significantly. Good luck to anyone trying to solve this one.
For the Blue Devils, the big news is Cassius Stanley’s (G, 6200) injury. Joey Baker (F, 4000) and Jordan Goldwire (G, 3800) were the biggest beneficiaries of the extra PT in their last game, but it would also make sense for Coach K to start the more experienced Alex O’Connell (G, 4300). As Baker and Goldwire emerged in that game, Wendell Moore (F, 4900) only saw 19 minutes and essentially did nothing. Stay tuned to Twitter to see if we can get a better picture by game time, otherwise, it’s a guessing game.
Vernon Carey Jr (F, 8700) is at an all-time high in pricing. 4x seems like a permanent floor for him at this point. His output is largely minute dependent, and I expect plenty in this one, so I’m looking at him in both formats. Tre Jones (G, 8100) should be fine in either format as well. Matthew Hurt (F, 4900) is starting to come alive and still priced low, 6x in last game. Sparty just average at defending the 3.