If you are someone who likes the large slates this has been the week for you. We had a 9 gamer on Tuesday and Wednesday, and now Thursday is providing us with an 8 game sked. As great as the last two days have been tonights slate feels the most like DFS is officially back, and that is mainly because of that PAC 12 late night heat.
The PAC 12 does a great job with its league schedule. Typically when a team based in the southern region of the conference travels north, they’ll hit one state school on Thursday and the other on Saturday or Sunday. For example Arizona State is at Oregon State tonight and then at Oregon on Saturday. Arizona will play the same two teams in reverse order. The same is true when traveling north to south. Washington is at Stanford tonight and at California (both in Northern California) Saturday.
This is the kind of consistency that DFS regulars love. Has one of your favorite west coast plays been cold of late? Maybe a little home cooking for a week will get the going. Is some one on a heater who will be away from his home gym for 5 days? At the least, its something to consider when you are making line-ups!
Purdue @ #19 Michigan
It’s been a rough year already for the Boilermakers. They needed 2 overtimes to beat Minnesota at home, then followed that up with a school record low-scoring game (37) at Illinois. Purdue heads to Ann Arbor tonight. No easy games in the B1G this year.
Both of these teams are upper-tier defensive teams, holding opponents to below 30% shooting from 3. Michigan, in particular, is only allowing teams to get 20% of their points from 3, so every long-range shooter in this game gets downgraded slightly. Purdue has a minor edge on the offensive boards, but given the low expected scoring total, we don’t want a ton of exposure to this game.
Zavier Simpson (G, 7800) has been solid of late, going 4x in last 2 games. Purdue will likely stay on shooters and force Simpson to score in the lane, so I would expect double-digit shot attempts for him which isn’t necessarily good. I would consider him in cash maybe. Jon Teske (F, 7600) has only hit 4x once in last 5 games. Tough matchup tonight, too risky for GPP.
Isaiah Livers (F, 5800) is still questionable with a groin. Hadn’t really been getting it down anyway, so don’t trouble yourself too much. Brandon Johns (G, 4400) starts for Livers, but he hasn’t done much with the opportunity. Eli Brooks (G, 5300) and Franz Wagner (G, 4400) have seen additional minutes and are GPP darts. Wagner has performed better against high majors, so he might be the most viable.
Also a tough matchup for Matt Haarms (F, 6600), he can flash, even against good teams, so you can take a shot with him in GPP, but high risk tonight. Jahaad Proctor (G, 5900) is getting a full taste of B1G play. He’s only hit 3x once in last 6 games so not rosterable at this point.
If you’re going to take a shot with anyone on Purdue, you can play Trevion Williams (F, 5800) in GPP. He has a bit of offensive rebounding upside and always a DD threat. Sasha Stefanovic (G, 4900) is extremely shot dependent, particularly from 3 so matchup is terrible for him. High expectations for Nojel Eastern (G, 4400) coming into the season. He’s been disappointing from a DFS standpoint but playing better of late. He can do enough to hit value in GPP formats if you need a cheap option.
#21 Memphis @ #23 Wichita State
It would’ve taken a tournament or adventurous non-conference scheduling to bring these teams together in the old Missouri Valley/Conference USA days. With the AAC we get a guaranteed 2 games each season, so, you know…
Both of these teams are off to a hot start this season. The Shockers have only 1 loss, against WVU back in November. Memphis is coming off a home loss to Georgia. While this is a pace-up game for the shockers (Memphis #9 tempo), the Tigers are ranked 13th in Def. Eff. and #2 in 2P% (39%) so no easy buckets. Memphis is one of the worst teams in the country at taking care of the ball however, so look for steal/block upside for certain Shocker players. Otherwise, these teams are pretty evenly matched on paper.
Precious Achiuwa (F, 8300) is coming off back-to-back-to-back DD games. He’s in strong form right now and good things happen when he gets double-digit shot attempts up. The matchup isn’t great, but he’s only missed 4x twice in last 10 games so he’s a bit impervious. Will be highly owned in cash and GPP.
Keep an eye on DJ Jeffries (F, 5700) and Damion Baugh (G, 5000) as they’ve been dealing with the flu. If one or both can’t go, it could mean more opportunity for Lester Quinones (G, 5100) and Boogie Ellis (G, 4300). Both saw increased minutes when Jeffries missed the Georgia game over the weekend. None of these guys are great cash plays and are GPP darts at best.
PG Alex Lomax (G, 5400) has been much more consistent of late. Like Achiuwa, he’s had 4x in 8 of last 10. His ability to stat-stuff makes him a great cash play and coming off 6x against Georgia, he has some GPP pop as well.
Erik Stevenson (G, 7500) is the primary scoring option for the Shockers. He’ll get up at least 10 shot attempts, most being from 3, but he can also get to the line and create for others as well. What I really like about him tonight though is his thievery ability. He’s had 15 steals in last 4 and could have 4 or more against a sloppy Memphis team. He should be highly considered in GPP.
Jamarius Burton (G, 5800) has gone at least 4x in 3 of last 4 but has struggled against high majors this season (5 DK vs WVU, 11 DK vs OU). He’s a bit of a gamble tonight and should only be considered for GPP in spite of his recent consistency and minute increase. Tyson Etienne (G, 4700) is the best long-range shooter on the team. The Tigers guard the 3 pretty well but he’s second on the team in shot share, so all they need to do is go in.
Minnesota @ #8 Michigan State
The beat goes on as we feature another game with 2 top 40 KenPom/NET B1G teams. Minnesota will face a big challenge against a Sparty team that is looking unbeatable at home right now. Naturally Michigan St likes to run, and Pitino’s Gopher team would too if they had the personnel to do it. These teams are pretty even on the boards. No team is better at getting assists off made FGs than the Spartans. Minnesota isn’t bad themselves, ranked #22 at A/FGM. The Gophers will try to get hot from the outside, normally getting 36% of their points from 3. Look for Sparty to pound it inside and try getting to the line.
Xavier Tillman (F, 8400) is one of the few players that hasn’t seen a price decrease on this slate, probably because he’s gone 5x/5x/6x in last 3 games. No real disadvantages in this matchup, so plug him into your cash and GPP lineups. When Tillman is hot, normally Cassius Winston (G, 8200) is too, so it’s no surprise each had a 50-burger last game. Sparty is too hot at home to fade either of these guys.
Aaron Henry (F, 6000) won’t break the slate, but he shouldn’t kill your cash hopes tonight either. He’s getting enough boards and shot attempts up to make him a viable cash play. You’ll see Marcus Bingham (F, 4500) more when Tillman can guard the opposing team’s 4, which should be the case tonight. He’s not a scoring threat but can make up value with boards and blocks like he did against Illinois (6.5x on 0 pts, 12 rebs, & 5 blks).
Daniel Oturu (F, 9200) has a hefty price tag, but when you can routinely put up 50 DK games, like he has the last 3, then you warrant it. As fun as it would be to throw him in your lineup, the matchup is really pretty bad for him tonight. Since Vernon Carey went ham in East Lansing, Sparty has made it a point to shut down opposing big men (Teske, Cockburn, Nance, Johnson etc.). Always a chance, and he’s definitely more proven, but higher risk GPP play tonight.
Marcus Carr (G, 8100) has been outstanding this year as well. He’s had at least 4x in the last 5 and is probably the safer elite play of the 2 as he can fill up the stat sheet. Also, if he can be on the floor, he won’t come off the floor, so he’ll have max opportunity to generate value. Strong cash play tonight with some GPP upside. Alihan Demir (F, 4900) is another solid cash play, 4x in last 4 as well. If the Spartans key on Oturu, or Oturu gets into foul trouble, it could open additional opportunity for Demir.
#24 Arizona @ #9 Oregon
The Pac-12 heat begins when Arizona heads to face an elite Oregon Ducks squad in Eugene. Arizona likes to push pace, while the Ducks are in the 300s in tempo. This should be a great game and even provides some fantasy goodness, so put the kids to bed, kiss your significant other goodnight, feed your pets, and get locked in for an elite matchup in the Conference of Champions.
Zeke Nnaji (F, 7400) doesn’t have massive usage, but he’s hyper efficient, active on the boards, and has shot blocking upside. As you can tell from our beautiful heat check graphic below, he’s in great form and in play as a GPP play against an Oregon team that gives up a lot of 2nd chance points.
Nico Mannion (G, 6800) is an elite talent with elite assist rates and 25% shot share. Even though he hasn’t smashed many slates lately, he has to be on our radar at a sub-$7k price. The other 5-star elite talent for Arizona is Josh Green (G, 6200), who has 28+ DK in 4 of 6 and has shown 40 DK upside. He profiles as an elite defender at the next level, offering steal upside and he’s priced at his lowest price point of the season.
Chase Jeter (F, 5200) hasn’t hit 5x since Dec. 1st and his minutes are decreasing, making him an easy fade despite his pedigree. UK transfer Jemarl Baker, Jr. (G, 4400) is getting more PT, but isn’t really DFS relevant yet. The Wildcats have a lot of viable bet on talent GPP options against a tough Oregon team.
From an Oregon perspective, Payton Pritchard (G, 8200) has at least 34 DK in 8 of his last 9, offering an elite floor. He gets a pace up game at home and his price has dropped, so he’s a cash game staple with GPP upside. I’m also a Will Richardson (G, 5500) fan. He has 26+ DK in 4 of his last 5 games including two games over 30 DK points. He’s an under the radar glue guy for this team and affordable option to get exposure to the Ducks at home.
Chris Duarte (G, 6000) is separating himself from Anthony Mathis (G, 4600) as the volume shooter on the team, taking 7% more shot attempts than Mathis. Duarte has some rebounding ability too, but he’s a “hope it’s your lucky day” GPP option. Mathis has single digit DK points in 3 of his last 4, making him a much riskier option, albeit at a lower price point.
Shakur Juiston (F, 5600) is back, but it creates more of a headache than anything, as the Ducks have an overabundance of long, athletic frontcourt options (Juiston, N’Faly Dante, CJ Walker, Chandler Lawson, and Francis Okoro) N’Faly Dante (F, 4200) has the most upside of the group, but hard to click the button on a guy that’s only played 15 minutes in both conference games. Until he gets more minutes, I’m avoiding the Oregon frontcourt altogether.
Washington @ Stanford
Both of these teams recovered nicely after demoralizing wins. The Huskies lost a home game to a less than stellar UCLA team, but took care of business against USC on Sunday. Stanford got exposed offensively by the Jayhawks on their home floor but responded well by beating Cal. Stanford’s offense is struggling and the Huskies defense creates long possessions on defense, so I don’t expect many DFS fireworks here.
Isaiah Stewart (F, 8700) is a grown ass man out there. Elite usage, elite rebounding, elite block percentages, and nothing scary about the Stanford front line. He has 35+ DK in 7 straight. He’s #good. The other 5-star Jaden McDaniel (F, 7300) has much more freshman like game logs, with 3 monster games and 2 eggs in his last 5. McDaniel plays a ton of minutes and has plenty of usage to succeed, but he carries risk in an uninspiring game environment.
Naz Carter‘s (G, 7000) price has dropped $600 despite back to back 30 point DK performances. He has some nice block and steal upside in the 2-3 zone, so I don’t mind him at this price as a good 4x option. Quade Green (G, 6400) has played really well lately, but he’ll be up against elite defender Daejon Davis, so I’m selling his stock here on the road.
This doesn’t seem like the time to pay $8000 for forward Oscar Da Silva, so we’ll look for better options. Tyrell Terry (G, 7600) is priced down a few hundred and profiles well against a zone defense, so he’s in play as a low owned GPP option. Daejon Davis (G, 6000) is regaining some of the form he showed last year. He plays max minutes and has 28, 35, and 42 DK performances in his last 4 games.
#1 Gonzaga @ San Diego
Last year this would have been a sneaky fun game as the Torreros were a 21 win team with some fun DFS players like Isaiah Pineiro and Isaiah Wright. This year those two have graduated and Sam Scholl’s squad finds themselves 7-10 and 0-2 in the West Coast Conference with #1 Gonzaga coming to town. The Zags are a -15.5 favorite and the over under is set at 146.
My San Diego section will be brief so let’s get that out of the way.
The team is rated 283rd in offensive efficiency, so there are no real stand out plays. The most expensive Bull (English translation of Torero) is Braun Hartfield (G, 5900), and he is cheaper than all 5 Gonzaga starters. Hartfield is in good shooting form over his last three games (11/17 from 3) and that is an area where the Zags are vulnerable (248th @ defending the arc) so I am okay if you want to roll the dice with him and get some home cooking/come back train/let fly exposure here. Same can be said for Joey Calcaterra (G, 5700) who is actually a better shooter on the season (37% from 3) so he is viable as well. I can’t go farther than that guys, let’s move along.
In very un-Gonzaga-y fashion the Bulldogs have started a little sluggish in league play. 257th rated Portland played them tight for 30 minutes before the Zags won by 13, then last Saturday 164th ranked Pepperdine only lost by 5 in Spokane. Eventually this team will start clicking again, but until then it is somewhat hard to trust their core guys.
Starting with the guards Joel Ayayi (7200) and Ryan Woolridge (6800) seem a little overpriced. Ayayi hasn’t hit 4x in 4 straight and Woolridge came crashing down to eart with an 8.8 DK effort last time out.
Filip Petrusev (F, 7900) has had 4x in 6/7 but hasn’t shown much upside beyond that. Like Filip, Corey Kispert (F, 6300) has been steady, but if you are someone with a more upside consider Killian Tillie (F, 6300). Tillie has back to back 5x games in 32 and 27 minute showings.
The Zags go 8 deep, so Admon Gilder (G, 4800), Drew Timme (F, 4600) and Anton Watson (F, 3900) will all play. Gilder over Timme makes the most sense if you have a hole between 4500-4900 in your line-up. Watson is a promising freshman, but with everyone healthy he is having a hard time find his spot.
BYU @ St. Mary’s
The Cougars are 1-8 in Moraga, California against Saint Mary’s since joining the West Coast Conference. Tonight BYU is a 4 point underdog as the Gaels look to bounce back after a quadruple overtime loss in league play last Saturday.
Four overtimes is an extra 20 minutes so don’t let the recent Saint Mary game logs fool you! That being said there are some plays I really like from this one even though the over/under is a pedestrian 137.
Jordan Ford (G, 7700) and Malik Fitts (F, 7800) are the Gaels known commodities. Both are shooting around 40% from deep and both are very playable at all times in DFS. Ford is a bit more scoring dependent than Fitts, but I’ll reiterate – you can’t go wrong with either.
Tanner Krebs (G, 5600) is priced appropriately and shooting 42% from deep, but he can be too passive at times. If you are thinking Gaels backcrout not named Ford consider Tommy Kuhse (G, 4500) who has gone 4x in 6-straight with an 8x and two 6x games over that span.
Recently Saint Mary’s starting center Matthias Tass (F, 3000) was lost for the year with an ACL injury. This has opened the door for a few players that have taken advantage. Fortunately for us DK has been slow to adjust over these past 3 games so we have some value.
Dan Fotu (F, 3600) has started since the injury and has games of 29 and 31 minutes in 2/3. I mentioned the 4 OT, but Fotu fouled out of that one. Seems like a nice price for someone who could get healthy minutes and went 7.4x 12 days ago. If you are feeling real frisky Jock Perry (F, 3000) is at the min price point and has 23.3 DK in 29 minutes played. The 7’1 Aussie gets even more intriguing if BYU big man Yoeli Childs (F, 8900) misses the game.
Childs is dealing with a jammed finger and is listed as questionable. If active you may as well play him. The center has gone 4x this in every game this year. Note: Game Sample is 7, as Childs first game was 12/4/2019.
If Childs can’t go Jake Toolson (G, 7600) and T.J. Haws (G, 6500) become the primary options. Both shooters play max minutes and while Haws has the higher usage rates, Toolson has been much more efficient offensively.
After that trio it is hard to recommend a Cougar. Dalton Nixon (F, 5300) will play 23 minutes and be active. Slight bump if Childs is out. Big bump in minutes for Kolby Lee (F, 3900) if Childs misses. He played 22 mpg in 9 November contests.
You know we will keep an eye on the injury status up until tip and pass along anything we see. Good luck tonight Bucketheads!
Arizona State @ Oregon State
The final game on the slate brings us some elite talents and fun game flow, so you’ll certainly want a piece of this late night heat. The Sun Devils play at the 30th fastest tempo in the nation and aren’t world beaters on defense, while the Beavers are sitting at 124th in defensive efficiency, which is pretty bad for a Power 5 school.
The Sun Devils have two complete usage hogs in Remy Martin (G, 7400) and Alonzo Verge (G, 6700). Remy has around 29% usage, 26% assist rate, and steal upside. Verge has 30% usage, 21% assist ate, and neither of them commit fouls on defense, likely because they are saving up their energy to play on offense. Remy is priced down a TON, so I like him a lot tonight. Verge is at his season high price point, but still in play as a GPP option.
Romello White (F, 7100) got hurt in late December. He played 25 minutes against AZ, but was ineffective. Assuming he’s at full health, he’s been a double double machine, but certainly a bit of risk as he recovers from the ankle injury. Kimani Lawrence (F, 4000) has benefitted from the additional PT, with 5x in back to back.
Trey Tinkle (F, 8500) is a metrics god, excelling in every key category we want from a DFS perspective. He’s traditionally a mid-$9k player, so I love him tonight at home against a pace up team that isn’t great defensively. Ethan Thompson (G, 7900) is at his season high price point, likely because he has two 40 burgers in his last 3 games. He’s a solid option as well, but I’d prefer finding $600 more to get up to Tinkle.
Kylor Kelley (F, 6900) is the best shot blocker in the country and although his price has dropped some, he’s still more of a mid-$6k player at best. He’s an uninspiring GPP option. The rest of the Beavers are high risk, so we’ll look elsewhere. In general, there are some elite plays at a lower price point than we are accustomed to, so I may start my builds with Remy and Tinkle and fill in the blanks from there.