Last night was a good night for college hoops. The Thursday Throwdown came just 170 entries short of filling up, but Draft Kings didn’t lose money so hopefully more big tournaments are headed our way. Tonight we have a $10k prize pool with $2k going to first. The buy in is $15 and the 9-game state has some real DFS gems on it.
Yesterday’s 9-game had the largest over under at 140.5 prior to tip. Tonight only three of the game are under that line total. Auburn and Alabama has an o/u of 159.5 while Georgetown and Creighton are at 151.5.
This slate is a lot more DFS friendly, so put your readers on (if you are over 60 or haven’t pulled the trigger on Lasik) and through our 9-rung ladder below. As always we are here for you sharing our research so that our Bucketheads continue to win all the money!
#25 Creighton @ Georgetown
The Big East may be the 2nd best conference in real life behind the B1G, but it’s by far my favorite DFS conference. With a 152 over/under, we are getting more fantasy goodness tonight. The Bluejays are coming off a really impressive road win at Xavier while Georgetown has lost 3 of their last 4, making this a critical home game for the Hoyas.
Creighton gets a pace up game against a Hoya team that is giving up 35.6% shooting from behind the arc, which is 271st worst 3 point D in the country. They also allow 42% of field goal attempts from behind the arc, 296th worst in the country. The Bluejays are top 100 in 3-point attempts and top 60 in 3 point %, so give the Creighton guards a look tonight.
Marcus Zegarowski (G, 7600) is priced down $900 from his peak and although he’s been cold lately, he has the highest usage and assist rates on the team. Ty-Shon Alexander (G, 7400) has more steady game logs, so probably a bit safer than Zegs and a quality 4x option. Mitch Ballock (G, 6900) is the cheapest and riskiest of the bunch, but has GPP winning upside.
Christian Bishop (F, 5500) is a bit of an afterthought when you think about Creighton, but he does have 27+ DK in 4 of his last 6 games. Denzel Mahoney’s (G/F, 5200) minutes have dropped quite a bit. He’s a good point per minute player, but just isn’t getting enough minutes to feel great about him. Damien Jefferson (F, 4600) is a potential 4x value option, as he plays high 20s minutes, but hasn’t shown much ceiling as the 5th option on offense.
We mentioned a few pods ago that Omer Yurtseven’s (F, 8300) usage is down 10% in conference play. Fortunately his price is also down $1000 from his peak. In theory, you should be able to beat the undersized Bluejays inside, so I don’t hate Yurtseven as a low owned GPP option despite his less than impressive recent form.
Mac McClung (G, 7600) is a usage monster, sitting above 30% with improving assist rates. Despite being at his highest price point, he’s got 40 DK upside and nothing scary about the matchup. Jagan Mosely (G, 5900) and Jamorko Pickett (F, 5800) are going to play 30+ minutes, but they’ve hovered between 3-4x plays who have rarely shown a ceiling. If I’m not playing McClung, I’d rather spend down to $5500 to invest in guard Terrell Allen, who has played well overall since Akinjo left.
Tennessee @ Georgia
Georgia and Tennessee square off tonight in Athens. The Bulldogs are a slim -2.5 point favorite with the over under sitting at 135. UGA will want to push tempo while Tennessee prefers to play at a slower pace. Neither of these teams shoot the ball very well so taking care of the basketball and getting an advantage on the glass will be major keys in this one.
On the glass Tennessee should get a big lift as tonight will mark the debut of Serbian center Uros Plavsic (F, 3000) who checks in at the DK minimum. While it may take a game or two to figure out who he will be as a DFS contributor, the price may be too hard to resist.
Santiago Vescovi (G, 6700) could also be put into that hard to resist category. Since he made his season debut on January 4th we have been itching to play the Aussie. While his debut price is a little higher than I would like, given the paced up matchup and his 36% usage through 3 games, I am interested.
John Fulkerson (F, 6500) and Yves Pons (G/F, 6300) are active bodies that can also be considered. Jordan Bowden (G, 6200) is the teams’ actual leading scorer, while backcourt mate Josiah-Jordan James (G, 5400) is probably my favorite of this quartet.
Since 12/14 J3 has really gotten aggressive resulting in 4x over 3 straight and in 4-of-5 games. He stat stuffs everything from points to assists to rebounds and steals. These ancillary stats should fill up against Georgia.
Like any young team UGA is careless with the ball and struggles taking good shots. Take all-world future lottery pick Anthony Edward’s (G, 7900) for example. He’s a great shooter, but is at low price point because he is taking way to many jumpers. At 6’5 225 with elite athleticism head coach Tom Crean is screaming for him to be more assertive and active.
Tennessee is going to play a slow and physical style so the Bulldogs will need to match that intensity. Rayshaun Hammonds (F, 7500) is one of the few veterans on the team who understands this, but he has gone 3x and 2x in two SEC games, and that will not do. He has DD upside, but is a risky GPP play.
Every other UGA player is under $5000. I am not going to list them all, and honestly I will probably fade them all, but Jordan Harris (G, 4500) and Shavir Wheeler (G, 4700) are my favorites.
Miami @ N.C. State
NC State and Miami are both sitting at 2-3 in conference play and look to get things headed in the right direction with a win tonight. While both teams are middle of the pack in tempo, this game features a healthy O/U, largely due to offenses ranked in the top 30 in Adj. Efficiency. Neither of these teams run a terribly deep bench, so a good game to get exposure.
NC State isn’t a great rebounding team, but Miami has been awful so far this season. The Wolfpack have a lot of guys that contribute to rebounding but something to keep in mind. The Hurricanes are giving up the least number of 3s in conference play and are allowing teams to shoot 53% from 2, 64% of total points. Expect NC State to do most their work going to the rim. Likewise, the Wolfpack have struggled defending in general and are putting teams on the line at an alarming rate (40.6% FTA/FGA). Miami scorers will get a bump.
Markell Johnson (G, 8400) is the highest priced play in this game. He has a reasonably safe floor tonight, even if shots don’t fall. They haven’t lately in fact. Excluding 4-9 vs ND, he’s gone 2-18 from 3 in last 4 games. He’ll get a little rebounding upside and assists are always there. I like him in cash and GPP with some shot risk.
Seems like CJ Bryce (G, 7800) will be back in action tonight after missing the last 4 games. If so, this is a mouth-watering matchup that plays to his strengths. Rebounding, steals, and points should all be boxes that are ticked numerous times tonight.
I really thought Devon Daniels (G, 6000) would carry the load when Bryce was out. Other than the first game against Appalachian St (43 DK), he’s been underwhelming, averaging roughly 3x. Again, plus matchup, so if Bryce is a no-go, he might be worth a GPP shot. I love DJ Funderburk (F, 5600) tonight. He’s had at least 14 points in last 5 games. He’s in line for a DD tonight and should hit 5x as he has the last 2 games. Same for Manny Bates (F, 4800) but I see him more as a GPP flyer due to lack of minutes and scoring.
Chris Lykes (G, 6400) and Kameron McGusty (G, 6300) never met a shot they didn’t like. The Pack have struggled defensively in conference so far. Getting Bryce back will help, but I expect both guys to get up at least 15 shots a piece. McGusty has had the hot hand lately, but either guy is a live GPP play tonight.
Sam Waardenburg’s (F, 6200) price has finally caught up with his production. He’s Miami’s only real rebounding threat and can add a block or two even when shots aren’t going in. Rodney Miller (F, 4400) has been more productive in added minutes since Keith Stone (F, 4400) went down with a knee. This is the Hurricanes front court, so both guys will play max minutes and should be considered in all formats.
Xavier @ Marquette
In what will be a pivotal Big East match-up, the Xavier Musketeers head to Milwaukee to take on the Marquette Golden Eagles. Loser of this game falls to 9th in the conference with a 1-4 record. Both squads had lofty expectations led by veteran all conference talents to begin the year. Marquette is currently a -4 point home favorite with the over under at a DFS friendly 144.
Everything for the Eagles starts and ends with one of those aforementioned all-conference talents, Markus Howard (G, 8700). The senior needs 34.8 to hit value and he should be able to do that with relative ease. In his last three games against Xavier, Howard has gone for 31, 26, and 33 real points not factoring in ancillary stats like rebounds, assists, steals, etc.
Howard also has one of the more dramatic home/road splits in college basketball averaging 41 fppg at home versus 28 fppg on the road. Xavier has been struggling defensively of late, so there are just no road blocks here. Play Howard tonight if you can.
The next three Eagles are price between 5800-5200. Sacar Anim (G, 5800) plays good minutes but has limited upside. Brendan Bailey (F, 5700) is a little more intriguing despite the season high price point. He has gone 5x 4 times in last 6 and has shown ability to 7x. Koby McEwen (G, 5200) is a GPP only play.
Down low Theo John (F, 4500) will have to play well and avoid foul trouble to be viable. This is risky as it is something that Theo struggles with. Jayce Johnson (F, 3800) picks up minutes if John can’t handle Tyrique Jones (F, 7700) down low.
Jones has 8 DDs this year and leads Xavier team in shot%. He and Naji Marshall (F, 7700) will provide issues for Marquette in the paint. I love Naji as a player, but only recommending him in GPP tonight. If an am targeting a Musketeer it is Paul Scruggs(G, 6400) who is in good form going 5x in his last two.
Quinten Goodin (G, 5000) and Jason Carter (F, 4800) round out the Xavier players who get the bulk of the minutes. Goodin is typically someone I avoid, while Carter is appealing. Carter is at a season low price point and has gone 5x and 4x in his last two.
Iowa State @ #2 Baylor
This Baylor team is #good. Iowa St., outside of Haliburton…#notgood. That’s what we in the biz call #analysis. Baylor gets a pace up game at home against the 115th adjusted defense. Butler is elite defensively, holding KU, Texas, and Texas Tech below 55 points, including 44 vs. Texas.
Tyrese Haliburton (G, 9100) is the whole F’ing show for Iowa St. He has top 15 assist rates and top 40 steal rates, including 3 steals in 4 straight, but this is not a fun matchup for Tyrese or any of the Cyclones. Rasir Bolton (G, 6600) has 43.5, 31.5, 18.8, and 37 point game logs his last 4. The former Penn St. guard is somewhat playable despite a poor matchup and a price point in that weird no-man’s land of pricing.
Beyond these 2, Iowa St. has increased bench minutes and no one is in good form, so I’m not pushing the envelope against a stingy Bears defense on the road.
Jared Butler (G, 7000) is playing at an All-American level and has 30+ DK in 3 of his last 5, including 39 against KU last game. That’s a solid price point for 26% usage, 20+% assist rates, and some steal upside at home. UNC-Asheville transfer MaCio Teague (G, 6600) has similar game logs to Butler recently, including 28 or more in 3 of 4. I’d rather pay $400 for Butler, but Teague is a nice GPP play as well.
Freddie Gillespie (F, 7200) is a key role player and has been wildly effectively, but he’s more of a 4x from a DFS perspective. I’d rather drop $1700 to Mark Vital (G/F, 5500), who has 20+ DK in 6 straight, offering nice stability at a reasonable price point. Defensive stopper Davion Mitchell (G, 5300) is a high risk GPP play who will be focused more on stopping Haliburton than producing on the offensive end tonight. Insert your sad trombone noises here for Tristan Clark (F, 3900), who is still on a minutes restriction making him unplayable in all formats.
Penn State @ Minnesota
Penn St has struggled defending the 3 in conference, allowing nearly 39% 3P%. Minnesota should have an advantage on the boards, particularly on the offensive end. Penn St’s attacking defense is #1 in conference in steal% and #2 in block% but also last in fouling (44% FTA/FGA). Shooters on both teams should get a small bump as neither team guards the 3 well.
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a more prolific tandem in DFS than Daniel Oturu (F, 9300) and Marcus Carr (G, 8500). I’ll keep this short. Both guys will be extremely, highly-owned in all formats tonight. Carr has a little foul risk but simply an ideal matchup for both players.
Gabe Kalscheur (G, 6000) is your typical boom/bust, shot-dependent GPP-head. He had a couple 40+ DK games late last month, so he’s live tonight, especially if you fade Oturu and Carr for some reason. Alihan Demir (F, 5600) has played well in conference going 5x/5x/4x in last 3. He should be solid once again.
Lamar Stevens (F, 7900) has slumped a little since conference started but got back on track against Wisconsin going 5x. The matchup isn’t great tonight, but a player like Stevens is always a GPP threat and cheapest he’s been all year.
Not sure if Mike Watkins (F, 6900) is going to guard Oturu tonight, but if so, the plodding big man will have his hands full against a player that can extend post D all the way to the 3-point line. Matchup isn’t great and bad form lately, so he’s risky at best. A Nittany Lion I do think could make some noise in this game is Myreon Jones (G, 6800). He’s Penn St’s best shooter and matchup is solid. A couple bad shooting games in last 3, but he’s capable of 5x if he can get double digit shot attempts up.
Not a great matchup for Izaiah Brockington (G, 4700) and Myles Dread (G, 4500) has been dreadful shooting the rock, going 0-fer in 3 of last 4 games.
#4 Auburn @ Alabama
Please don’t take this as a cop out, but you can play anyone from this game. Well… not anyone, but anyone who plays somewhat regular minutes can be played in this game.
Bucketheads, follow me here:
1. We have an over/under of 159.5 (highest in recent memory).
2. We have a line where the road team is a slim -1.5 point favorite.
3. We have two DFS friendly teams for different reasons.
4. It’s one of the later tips on the slate (also available in late slate).
Load up on this game!
Alabama is currently playing at the 3rd fastest tempo in the nation per KenPom. After a rocky start they have won 6/9 with narrow losses on the road at Penn State, Florida and Kentucky. Prior to UK, the Tide had scored 90+ points in 5 straight games, and they have done that with a pretty consistent guard dominated 7-man rotation.
John Petty Jr. (G, 8200) and Kira Lewis Jr. (G, 800) lead the attack, while Herbert Jones (G.F, 6000) is a tweener who will have to be active on the glass tonight. After them Alex Reese(F, 5300) and Jaden Shackelford (G, 5100) provide cheaper exposure but neither are in great form right now. I’d almost rather drop down even further and gamble on James Bolden(G, 4100) or even Galin Smith (F, 3500). The latter has started the last three games and played 14+ minutes in each. His size will be needed against Auburn. Bolden is a shooter who can sneak in a 6x every now and again.
The Tigers are a great DFS team because they are 6-deep. Samir Doughty (7300) and J’Von McCormick (7000) start at the guards while Austin Wiley (7300), Isaac Okoro (6300), Danjel Purifoy (5300) and Anfernee McLemore (5000) are all available at forward spots.
McCormick is probably my favorite play of the Auburn guys. Lately he has really taken control of this offense and that is reflective in his current usage rates. Okoro and Doughty are safe plays if you are looking for cash options. Purifoy more GPP, but he is in good form. Wiley is going to be a monster, but his max is 24 minutes it seems.
#16 Wichita State @ Temple
The Owls are hoping to snap a 3-game losing streak as they host a 1-loss, ranked Wichita St team. This should be a very good basketball game that could see extra innings if Temple can keep it close. Both teams are somewhat up-tempo and both have elite defenses, ranked 18th and 29th in efficiency. Temple has struggled mightily shooting the ball, 32% 3P% and 45% 2P%. Those percentages are even worse in conference so far (27%/38%). The Shockers will have a slight edge on the boards, otherwise, both teams are pretty balanced offensively and defensively.
Erik Anderson (G, 7500) leads the Shockers in shot% at 25%, but can also fill in rebs, assists, and steals on a given night. He was able to hit 4x at UConn but foul trouble has hampered his minutes. I feel safer with him as a cash play than GPP tonight, but likely there are better options on the slate.
Jamarius Burton (G, 6100) has hit the 4x line in 7 of his last 9 making him a pretty reliable cash option. His minutes are up in conference, but I don’t see any smash potential in this game. The other starters are more or less darts. One player that sticks out though is Dexter Dennis (G, 4600). He missed a few weeks in December and returned for the start of conference. He’s gone 5x/6x in last 2 in 28 mpg making him a nice flyer option tonight.
The two primary options for Temple are Nate Pierre-Louis (G, 7800) and Quinton Rose (G, 7700). Neither is in great form right now. Only Pierre-Louis has gone 5x in 1 of their last 8 games. Bad matchup, even at home, Rose would be the safer option as he has the higher floor, but neither are great GPP options tonight.
Jake Forrester (F, 4700) has a Q tag but should be in the lineup tonight. If he’s in your lineup, then you likely won’t be above the cash line though. In fact, not the worst idea to just ignore this team.
Stanford @ UCLA
If you are looking for late night heat, you’ve come to the wrong place. Stanford is quietly a top 15 defense this season while the Bruins play at a sloth-like pace and have been a real barf bucket this season.
Oscar Da Silva (F, 7600) hasn’t hit 30 DK in 4 straight and the pace down road game isn’t helping. On the other hand, Tyrell Terry (G, 7600) has 30+ DK in 4 of 6 and can do a bit of everything. Daejon Davis (G, 5800) is a bet on talent play at a reasonable price point whose usage and assist rates have skyrocketed since conference play began.
Bryce Wills (G, 4600) is seeing more minutes of late and has some GPP upside as well. Overall, I am not targeting anyone in this game, but Terry, Davis, and Wills don’t make me completely puke in my mouth.
For UCLA – 36, 32, and 40 DK are the last three for Chris Smith (G, 6100) who is on a heater.Not sure why the 6’9 PF is listed as a guard, but given his current form and dirt cheap price, he’s actually not a horrible play.
Prince Ali (G, 4700) is probably a bit underpriced as well given his usage and talent level, but I’m not looking to force Mick Cronin’s weapons into my DFS lineup. The rest of the Bruin options are in terrible form in what has become a “play bad by committee” approach for UCLA this season.