You can’t miss Kobe takes, memories, and news everywhere you look today, and rightfully so as the world lost a complete legend of the game way too soon.
As a basketball fan my heart hurts. As a father my heart breaks. RIP Kobe and Gianna.
We write up these 5-games tonight because it is what we love to do. If there is any takeaway in the wake of tragedy it is the reminder to do more of what you love. To spend more time with those you love. Death doesn’t wait or discriminate.
Tonight, we have some intriguing conference match-ups from the ACC, B1G and Big 12. In theory this would make for a nice little 3-game slate, but instead the folks at DraftKings felt like we needed 5 games so it forced in Lehigh versus American and Florida A&M versus Norfolk State. I don’t understand it, but it is what it is. We’ll deep dive into the MEAC and Patriot League conference games as well and have it all for you below.
It’s a labor of love. Good Luck tonight Bucketheads!
Lehigh @ American
I am all for dipping into the mid majors to beef up slates, but is this the best we could find today? The Lehigh Mountain Hawks are KenPom’s 302nd rated team at 5-15 on the season. The American Eagles are the #231st rated team and they are 9-10.
Neither team plays particularly fast, but neither team plays a lot of defense either which contributes to the 146 over/under. The home Eagles are -8 point favorites despite losing the first contest with the Hawks 82-73 on the road.
Both teams feature lead guards that are +8k and neither squad goes too deep into their bench making for a clear line of sight on potential plays.
Starting with American and their implied point total of 77 points, Sa’eed Nelson (G, 8400) is the main attraction. Averaging a stat stuffing 17-5-5-3 he has a safe floor and upside if you don’t mind spending 17% of your payroll on a guy you have never seen play.
Wings Jamir Harris (G, 6200) and Stacy Beckton Jr. (G, 6000) both play max minutes. Harris brings a little more scoring punch while Beckton Jr. is a good rebounder. Another guard worth consideration is Jacob Boonyasith (4500). Minutes have been down lately, but the sophomore can shoot it (39% from deep).
The forward spots are manned by Mark Gasperini (5700) and Connor Nelson (5000). Gasperini has had an easy 4x in 4 straight, while Nelson had 36 DK in the first meeting at Lehigh.
Also in that game Mountain Hawk Jordan Cohen (G, 8,000) had 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists. That effort was good for 46 DK and was one of 4 DK games of 42+ in his last six. Hard not to like his current form also need to account for usage bumps due to injuries.
James Karnik (F, 7000) hasn’t played since 1/5 and he is the team’s second leading scorer and top rebounder. Freshman Evan Taylor (G, 4900) also isn’t likely to go tonight with an ankle injured last game. Marques Wilson (G, 5000) and Jeameril Wilson (F, 5400) each get bumps due to this as well.
Finally, on the cheaper side of things Nic Lynch (F, 4500) and Reed Fenton (G, 4200) have been getting good minutes. Lynch has gone 4x in 3-of-4, while Fenton 14 real points in the first meeting.
North Carolina @ N.C. State
The Tar Heels try to build momentum after a win against Miami over the weekend. They will head down I-40 to Raleigh and face a Wolfpack team that has won 3 or their last 4.
This time last year, this game would’ve been played at the speed of light. Both teams are middle of the pack in terms of tempo this season however. Both teams are only shooting 31% from 3. The Tar Heels are 1st in conference on the boards and should maintain an advantage there. These teams love to foul so give a bump to the free throw shooters. The less than average defense on both sides should keep the shots going in.
Markell Johnson (G, 8200) has only hit 5x once in last 8 games. The matchup is solid and at home, so should be a safe cash play with a little GPP potential. CJ Bryce (G, 7300) hasn’t put it together since coming back from injury, failing to hit 4x thus far. The matchup is favorable and priced at a season low. He’s still a risky play until he can prove otherwise, but in GPP, you can get a high ceiling for a cheap price at least.
DJ Funderburk (F, 6700) is up $1200 from 2 weeks ago. The matchup isn’t great against UNC’s talented frontcourt, so he’s a pass for me, especially if Manny Bates (F, 4800) plays. Devon Daniels (G, 6400) has picked up the slack left by Bryce’s poor play. His price is holding steady, so he has value, particularly in cash tournaments.
I had high expectations for Garrison Brooks (F, 8500) against Miami’s porous frontcourt. It was ultimately Armanda Bacot (F, 7100) that reaped the statistical rewards of that particular game. This matchup isn’t as nice, but either guy is playable. I would lean towards Brooks on the road however, as he’s averaging 33 DK and more battle-tested.
Brandon Robinson (G, 6500) had a Kobe-esque performance on Saturday, catching absolute fire. He went 11-16 overall, good for 7x. I don’t expect that level of shooting, but he should get up plenty of shots. He’s live in cash and GPP. Finally, Leaky Black (G, 5900) is automatic in cash. His price is way up so more risk obviously, but I would keep him going, why not?
Florida A&M @ Norfolk State
No way to sugar coat this one…. these offenses flat out stink. A&M is 315th in offensive efficiency, including 339th in effective FG%. They are a terrible 3-point shooting team, part of the reason they are #1 in the nation in scoring via 2-point FGs. Norfolk is equally bad, 317th in offensive efficiency. The Spartans also play at the 304th tempo in the nation, so nothing too exciting about this one.
For the Rattlers, MJ Randolph (G, 6500) is playing 90% of the minutes in conference play with improved usage, rebounding, and assist rates in conference play. He has 4x in 5 of his last 6 with a bit of upside, so at his price point it’s not terrible. Rod Melton, Jr (G, 5700) has 44 real points over his last 2 games and takes the most shots on the team, but he’s very scoring dependent for production. Nasir Cone (G, 4400) has double digit points in 3 straight games, making him a potential flyer. The rest are risky GPP options at best.
SLU transfer Jermaine Bishop (G, 6600) has the highest usage of the Spartans and is in good form, scoring at least 17 points in 6 straight games. However, he doesn’t do anything but score the rock, so very scoring dependent. Joe Bryant, Jr. (G, 6300) is a similar scoring dependent player to Bishop, but with a lower floor.
Steven Whitley (G, 6100) has seen a 15% decrease in minutes since conference play started. He’s got some GPP heat on his game logs, but he’s a risky boom or bust option. Norfolk St. is 58th in bench minutes and 333rd in minutes continuity, so basically the worst possible situation for DFS purposes. Why these games are forced onto the slate is beyond me, but this is why our Bucketheads pay us the big bucks I guess.
Wisconsin @ #19 Iowa
It might be the Illini getting a lot of the attention right now, but Iowa is in the middle of a winning streak themselves, picking up their last 4. The scheduling gods only gave the Hawkeyes 8 true conference road games. Having already picked up a win at Northwestern, they are primed for a conference title run and high Big Dance seed. They’ll have to get past the pesky Badgers first though who have their own dancing aspirations.
Iowa is #3 in the nation in Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom and have been lethal at home. They’re leading the B1G in offensive rebound % and shooting 36% from 3 as a team. The Badgers will slow it down and muck it up, but they aren’t as efficient defensively as years past. Iowa is allowing teams to shoot 54% from 2, so room for Wisconsin bigs to go to work.
Luka Garza (F, 9400) is at peak price and rightfully so. Even at that crazy price, he’s averaging nearly 5x at home. Don’t be scared off by a Wisconsin team that just got handed 10 points and 13 rebounds from Evan Boudreaux.
Joe Wieskamp (G, 7500) is also at peak price, going up $500 since last game. He’s proven to be extremely reliable in cash game settings and can even provide a little GPP pop as he did against Maryland 4 games ago (52 DK). CJ Frederick (G, 5300) is much more shot dependent, but equally favorable matchup and should be considered for GPP only.
Connor McCaffery (G, 5200) hasn’t shot well, 0-6 in last 2 games. He can add value by getting to the boards and a few assists, but matchup isn’t great. Joe Toussaint (G, 4700) seems to be back in favor going 7x in 30 mins against Rutgers last game. Not sure if that is an anomaly, but you can give him another shot tonight to see if he can repeat.
Nate Reuvers (F, 6800) and Micah Potter (F, 5500) both stunk it up at Purdue. This matchup is way more favorable for the big men, so I’d stick one in a GPP lineup. Much like last time, hard to tell which guy will click, so you may just have to do the super-analytical thing and flip for it.
Brad Davison (G, 5600) proved he is road poison last game (6 DK), so I will stand by that once again. D’Mitrik Trice (G, 5900) isn’t getting up enough shots. He could have some assist upside, but he’s a gamble on the road. Wing slasher Kobe King (G, 4900) is out (possibly indefinitely) so Brevin Pritzl (G, 4600) will get a bump in minutes.
#3 Kansas @ Oklahoma State
Big game for KU tonight on the road against an Oklahoma State team that is winless in conference. With nothing else to play for, this will be the biggest game of the season for the Cowboys. Weird things happen on the road, so give me OK St and the points.
With Big Dave suspended one more game, KU has no true post players beyond Udoka Azubuike (F, 8600). The Cowboys will do everything they can to get Dok into foul trouble, but if he can stay on the floor, he’s a very safe option and should see 30+ minutes.
Speaking of safe, Devon Dotson (G, 8700) has scored at least 30 DK in every game this season outside for the Baylor game when he suffered a hip injury. He’s at a season high price point but has a season’s worth of scoring at least 30 DK so he’s a high floor option.
Marcus Garrett (G, 6400) is the lifeblood of this KU team and should see almost 40 minutes, making him a tourney option despite a lack of consistent offensive prowess. Ochai Agbaji (G, 5900) should get plenty of open looks from deep, as Ok State gives up more 3-point shots than almost anyone in the country. This is a good sign for Isaiah Moss (G, 4800) and Christian Braun (G, 4500) as well. Moss is more of a proven player, but Braun has been fantastic lately, including 29 and 32 minutes over the last 2 games. As always with KU, Dotson and Dok are safe, while the rest are your standard high risk, high reward tourney options.
For the Cowboys, Issac Likekele (G, 7800) has been playing better lately and his usage has increased since conference play. KU is elite defensively, but if you think the Cowboys can win tonight, it will be due to a good game from Likekele. Lindy Waters III (G, 6900) is going to play 35 minutes and has at least 27 DK in 3 straight, including nice ancillary stats. KU gives up a ton of 3s, so he’s in play despite a pretty high price tag.
Yor Anei (F, 6000) is coming off the bench now, but he dominated A&M last game. His game logs are horrible this season, but he can block shots and cause problems down low. Most folks will pivot to Cam McGriff (F, 5800) for $200 less. McGriff’s rebounding rates and minutes have increased in conference play and he’s a proven commodity, so I’d expect high ownership at a reasonable price point.
Thomas Dziagwa (G, 4800) has double digit points in 3 straight, including 8 3-point attempts in each of those games. KU loves to give up 3s, so Dziagwa is a scoring dependent tourney option. Jonathan Laurent (G/F, 4200) has played 24+ minutes in back to back. The UMass transfer by way of Rutgers has 20 and 23 DK in his last 2, making him an intriguing option at his price. Avery Anderson III (G, 4100) has played more minutes too, but as you can see from this writeup, Ok St is playing a deep bench lately. Likekele and McGriff feel like the safe options, while the shooters offer GPP upside against a KU team that gives up the 15th most points in the nation to 3-point field goals.
