We did it Bucketheads! It’s Thursday night! It’s Conference of Champions! It’s Pac-12 heat!! ??? Pac-12 conference games make up 5 of our 8 games slated tonight on DraftKings. While we don’t have as much of the undisciplined offense and blatant disregard/distaste for defense as we had last year, we still have 3 games expected to get into high 140s and plenty of premium DFS prime cuts.
If you’re not into fun, we have a B1G game, another Zags blowout, and some A-10 action. So grab your favorite West Coast IPA, pop some gluten free popcorn, kiss your wife and kids goodnight, and get ready for the best conference basketball in Western civilization!
Illinois @ #14 Michigan State
Illinois will need shots to fall to keep this game closer than expected. They’re currently getting less than 20% of their points from 3 (#350). Sparty has won their last 6 games since their home loss to Duke back in early December. Both teams are elite rebounding teams. Michigan St is a solid shooting team and should see several open looks from deep. This should be fairly up-tempo game overall as both teams like to run.
Ignore the Q tag on Cassius Winston (G, 8100) as he’s expected to play tonight. He had 21 points and 9 assists last year against Illinois. He also had 9 TOs, but Illinois doesn’t apply the same ball pressure this season, so I wouldn’t expect that high of a number again. 5x/4x/5x in the 3 of last 4, so should be squarely in play tonight.
Xavier Tillman (F, 8400) has been sitting comfortably in a 4x/5x range his last 10 games. He’s naturally priced up a bit, but he should be fine tonight. He may dip a little on the defensive boards but should offset that on the offensive side. Aaron Henry (F, 6000) is coming off 4.5x/6x his last 2. He should get a few open looks tonight giving him a chance in GPP. Speaking of GPP, Rocket Watts (G, 4300) is back from injury. He put up 17 DK in 12 minutes against Western Michigan. I would expect his minutes to increase significantly making him a cheap gamble.
Another nice “flyer” option is Marcus Bingham (F, 4000). He’s Tillman’s backup and actually posting better rebounding percentages. In limited minutes, he put up 4x/5x in last 2, so a decent GPP option with smash potential if Tillman gets into early foul trouble.
Monstrous freshman Kofi Cockburn (F, 8300) has been exceptional down low for the Illini this season. He’s had 4 40+ DK games in his last 9, including 19 pts and 10 rebs against Michigan. This will arguably be his biggest challenge to date however and he’s not Vernon Carey, so temper expectations. I would look for safer options in that tier.
Andres Feliz (G, 7200) seems to have lost some confidence or perhaps not adjusting to the increasing difficulty of their schedule, but he’s not playable right now. Ayo Dosunmu (G, 7100) had his breakout game against Sparty last season. He’s seems to have found his groove again after a sluggish start to the season going 4x/5x in last 2. He’s a gamer so not a bad GPP play tonight.
Alan Griffin (G, 4400) is a decent flyer. He’s coming off 4x/4x/6x in last 3 and shooting well overall. They’ll need him tonight if they want to stay in the game.
#20 Dayton @ LaSalle
9-3 La Salle has had the benefit of a soft schedule thus far as all their wins have come against teams ranked outside the top 100. They play at an average tempo but surprisingly fast on the defensive side at only 16 secs/poss (#24), so that could benefit the Flyers. The Explorers do hold teams to 27% shooting from 3, but Dayton has the highest 2P% in the nation right now at 63% so shouldn’t impact their game plan much. La Salle has a problem with fouls, allowing opponents to get 23% of their points from the line. The Flyers should dominate the boards.
Obi Toppin (F, 8600) is down $800 from his peak price in early Dec due to recent form and slate size. He got up 21 shots against North Florida last game however. I would expect to see similar volume tonight with some rebounding upside. Game should stay competitive enough to ensure max PT. He should be highly owned in both cash and GPP.
Jalen Crutcher (G, 7000) had 18 DK coming back from concussion protocol. He played 31 minutes which is a good sign. La Salle guards the perimeters well, so could limit his ceiling a bit, but should slide comfortably into that 4x window. Trey Landers (G, 6200) is a nice mid-tier player, especially if you pivot off Toppin. He should reap similar matchup rewards.
Rodney Chatman (G, 6000) picked up some of the scoring burden in Crutcher’s absence. He leads the team in assists which can offset bad shooting, but he’s a GPP play only tonight with a little more risk than upside. Ryan Mikesell (F, 5500) has hit 4x in 3 of last 4. Should be a safe play at that price. Ibi Watson (G, 4600) returns to a key reserve role with Crutcher back.
For the Explorers, Isiah Deas (G, 4700) has been on a massive heat check lately going 5x/5x/4.5x/9x in last 4. He’ll see a significant uptick in competition tonight, but minutes and shot share are clearly there, especially for a player in that price tier at home.
Ed Croswell (F, 5700) will jump out as you review his game log with 43 and 37 DK games lately, including a 30DK effort at Villanova. He needs minutes and rebounding upside will be limited, but not a bad GPP strike for the price.
The Flyers can give up points behind the arc. In addition to Deas, Saul Phiri (G, 5800) and Scott Spencer (G, 5400) are both shooting over 40% from 3 if you want to try to catch a hot hand in GPP.
Oregon State @ Utah
This Pac-12 matchup in Salt Lake City features two relatively efficient offenses, relatively soft defenses, and middling tempos. Neither team plays a deep bench, which is great news for our Bucketheads.
For the Beavers, it all begins with DFS legend and price king for the slate Tres Tinkle (F, 9200). His price is actually down and nothing scary about the matchup, so Tinkle is an elite play, as always. If you don’t roll with Tres, strong consideration should be given to Ethan Thompson (G, 7800). He’s had 20 real points in 3 of his last 4 and coming off his best game of the season.
7 foot shot blocking phenom Kylor Kelley (F, 7300) should have multiple blocks tonight and has improved offensively. I’d prefer his price in the upper 6k range, so he’s a low owned GPP option only tonight. That’s really the only realistic options for the Beavers tonight.
Timmy Allen (F, 8400) has embraced the alpha role for the Utes this year, increasing his usage roughly 10% over last season, while remaining involved on the boards and maintaining decent assist rates. His only flaw is not much steal/block upside, but he has a really high floor as a home favorite in a projected close game.
Freshman PG Rylan Jones (G, 7200) has been really impressive this season and should play max minutes tonight, but he’s a bit overpriced for my liking. Both Gach (G, 6100) game logs are a bit ugly, but this feels like a nice matchup for at least a 4x performance for a player that has future NBA potential. Riley Battin (F, 5400) is at his season low price point and has 4x potential as well.
#4 Oregon @ Colorado
The marquee Pac-12 game tonight is right here, with #4 Oregon taking on a Colorado team that just beat a solid Dayton squad in late Dec. The Ducks have been incredibly efficient offensively, especially from deep, however Colorado doesn’t allow may looks from behind the arc. The Ducks 2-3 zone is susceptible to offensive rebounds, which is something Colorado does well, so slight bump to Tyler Bey and Evan Battey.
Oregon plays a pretty deep bench and with N’Faly Dante (F, 4400) back in the mix, the rotation is even deeper. Dante played 22 minutes last game and is a difference maker defensively. He would be a high risk, high reward play given the uncertainty of his minutes against a premier opponent. The only risk Peyton Pritchard (G, 8800) carries is his price point. A 4x effort seems reasonable, but I don’t see much beyond that unfortunately.
Chris Duarte (G, 6100) went completely ham last game, scoring 31 points and filling up the stat line. Prior to that breakout, he hadn’t exceeded 20 DK points since Nov. He’s a scoring dependent GPP play in a lower o/u environment. I do like Will Richardson (G, 5500), who has at least 26 DK in at least 5 of his last 6 games. I’d expect another mid-20s DK performance tonight.
Shakur Juiston is questionable, but I don’t foresee him playing tonight. Anthony Mathis (G, 5000) is the poor man’s version of Duarte. Similar skill sets and he’s an elite shooter, hitting 50% from 3 this year in 72 attempts. He’s going to be scoring dependent as well, but does have 4x in 4 of his last 5. Unlike the character count in this Oregon writeup, Francis Okoro’s (F, 4300) offensive game is too limited for my liking.
Colorado is a two man show with Tyler Bey (F, 8100) and McKinley Wright (G, 7400). Bey is priced down $1100, which is what happens when you haven’t broken 30 DK points since Dec. 4th. His shot percentage and rebounding are down a bit from last year, but he did drop 27-10 vs. the Ducks last season. In a critical road game, I’m willing to take a shot at some positive regression for Bey.
Our fancy cbb_dfs heat check graphic provides an aesthetically pleasing view of McKinley’s recent performances:
McKinley feels like Mr. Wright for your cash lineups and has some GPP upside as well.
Evan Battey (F, 5900) is a really good offensive rebounder, which should pay dividends vs. the Oregon zone. He’s also on a bit of a hot streak, with 33, 26, and 31 DK points over his last 3. If he can approach 30 minutes in playing time, he should produce. Another Buff in great form is D’Shawn Schwartz (G/F, 5400). He’s always gotten the playing time and talent seems to be there, but consistency hasn’t been his strong suit. He’s on a 3-game role and despite the tough game environment, he feels like an affordable option that helps you pay up for some of the studs. Siewart and Gatling are high risk GPP options as well.
#1 Gonzaga @ Portland
Take Gonzaga -22.5 and enjoy the free money. Portland is not in good form right now losing 4 straight each by double digits. The Pilots are rated 297th in offensive efficiency and 216th in defensive efficiency. They are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation and don’t turn people over.
The good news for us is that Gonzaga’s starters will still get about 25 minutes and have plenty of opportunity to do damage. You have to like Filip Petrusev (F, 8000) to be a safe cash play with an easy 4x-5x in play tonight.
Joel Ayayi (G, 7600) is a little too up and down for me on this larger slate so I won’t play him. I prefer Ryan Woolrdige (G, 6700) who is playing at a high level having gone 7x, 6x 5x in his last three. Admon Gilder (5200) round out the playable guards but is merely an exposure play.
I can’t give you a reason to play Killian Tillie (F, 6900). The ankle issue has been quirky and even if active minutes will be light. Rounding out the forwards, Corey Kispert (6500) is a high floor guy, Drew Timme (5500) has been almost 5x in his last two, and freshman Anton Watson (4500) got 20 minutes in his return to the lineup last game.
For Portland their top five DK options are all guards. Isaiah White (6300) and JoJo Walker (5300) play the most minutes but both are in horrible form right now. Like Creamy Biggums bad.
Chase Adams (5300) is a 5’7 freshman from Chicago who runs the point with nice assist rates, but the only one I am considering is Takiula Fahrensohn (G, 4700). The 6’7 sophomore has some rebounding upside and is shooting 47.3% from deep this year (26/55).
There is only one forward worth noting for the Pilots and that is Japan Native Tahirou Diabate (4500). He is really their only rebounder and is coming off a 37.5 DK outing (8.7x).
UCLA @ Washington
The Huskies head to Los Angeles to take on the Bruins in the PAC 12 opener for two charter schools in the conference. Washington comes in as a -7.5 point favorite and the over/under is at 138.5.
UCLA’s transition to Mick Cronin hasn’t gone as smoothly as planned. The team has lost 3 straight and 6-of-9 dating back to 11/21. The team is playing at a slow pace (257th tempo) and has a jaw dropping discrepancy around the arc. UCLA shoots just 29.8% (323rd nationally) from deep while their opponents are hitting 40.1% (347th).
Washington’s best shooters are Quade Green (G, 6800) and Naz Carter (G, 7500). Both are shooting over 40% from deep if you want to play up that narrative. Carter maybe a touch over priced since he hasn’t cracked 30 DK in his last 6 games. Green is priced appropriately.
Also priced appropriately are forwards Isaiah Stewart (8700), Jaden McDaniels (7700), and Hamier Wright (4800). Stewart has had only one DK game under 37 since Thanksgiving. At his price 34.8 DK is 4x so that makes him a pretty safe bet. For the other two McDaniels is a boom or bust option that has slate breaking abilities, and Wright has gone 4x in 4-of-6.
Washington isn’t all that deep, when they do go to the bench it is Jamal Bey (G, 4100) picking up 20- minutes here and there. He’ll get his shots up too so there are worse options at that price point.
UCLA’s pricing is much cheaper. My favorite play for the Bruins in Jaime Jaquez Jr. (G/F, 5800). Since becoming a focal point on 11/26 he has averaged 29.4 fantasy points per game. Cody Riley (F, 5800) is still the team’s usage and shot leader at the same price, but I lean Jaquez.
Jalen Hill (F, 6400) has DD potential, but hasn’t sniffed 4x in a month. Guards Jules Bernard (4300) and Tyger Campbell (5300) are deep cut options. Campbell has 7.4x last time out.
USC @ Washington State
Unlike last year where the Pac-12 provided a massive amount of heat in almost every matchup, several of the teams in this year’s version of the Conference of Champions have adopted defense and slower tempos. While this might be a good approach in real life, it makes me sad from a DFS perspective. Fortunately, we still have USC, who wants to play fast and isn’t overly concerned about defensive effort. Wazzou is also playing a top 80 tempo this year, so definitely some DFS goodness here.
Onyeka Okongwu (F, 8600) missed last game with an ankle injury, but Enfield said it was precautionary. I’d expect him to play tonight. The 6’9 PF has been phenomenal this year and is always viable in all formats. The emergence of Big O has hurt Nick Rakocevic’s (F, 7800) production, but he’s obviously still a great player. He’s been more of a 4x option as of late, but does have GPP upside if Big O isn’t 100%.
I’d normally pump Jordan Matthews (G, 5400), but Wazzou has been elite defending the 3, which is Matthews weapon of choice offensively. He could still break through, but not a great matchup overall. Isaiah Mobley (F, 5300) and Ethan Anderson (G, 5100) have your typical freshmen game logs, making them GPP options only. Finally, Daniel Utomi (G, 4000) has seen 20+ minutes the last 2 games and has 17 FGA’s over that span. The Akron transfer can shoot it and may be working his way into the rotation if you are looking for a cheap GPP flyer.
My favorite player in this game is CJ Elleby (G, 8500), who will have massive usage at home against a weak defense in an up-tempo game. I’m feeling a 40 burger or better from Elleby tonight.
Issac Bonton (G, 6800) actually has a higher shot percentage than Elleby this season, which is hard to believe. He’s not near as safe as Elleby, but offers some GPP upside. Jeff Pollard (F, 5600) is the primary big man down low for the Cougars and offers 4x potential, but hasn’t hit 30 DK in any game this season.
California @ Stanford
California is not very good, and Stanford is a little better than most people anticipated. Therfore, at home, Stanford is a comfortable -11 point favorite over the Golden Bears in their Pac 12 opener.
Both teams play at a slow pace which has our over-under at 127. This game is also available as a showdown, for which I have no reasoning.
Stanford plays a pretty tight group of guys with 5 players getting over 70% of the available minutes.
Tyrell Terry (G, 7900) is offensive the focal point on the perimeter, while Oscar da Silva (F, 8200) is the focal point in the paint. Neither should have issues getting theirs against Cal’s 192nd ranked defense.
Daejon Davis (G, 5900) and Bryce Wills (G, 4700) lead the team in minutes played. Both have pretty safe floors and are priced correctly. Freshman forward Spencer Jones (5800) rounds out the core. He’ll get 30 minutes and will score 15 or 30 DK points, so boom/bust option.
Cal is led by Matt Bradley (G, 6600) who has a 27% usage and 38% shot rate. He is as consistent as they come, so no issues if you want to stick him in. Kareem South (G, 5300) leads the team in minutes played and is shooting 40% from deep. Grant Anticevich (F, 5000) is a good rebounder with safe minutes down low. With this being the lowest o/u on the slate, there isn’t a lot of sexy here.
