DraftKings is giving us a little nugget heading into the weekend.
Our main event is a $3000 Big Jam with a $10 entry fee with $500 going to first. The 2 featured games aren’t bad for a Friday. We get a B1G game that could provide some offensive fireworks. We also have a Big East matchup featuring a Providence team, that might be starting to live up to its pre-season hype, against a top-10 Butler team. Let’s put a little money in our wallet for the weekend!
#12 Maryland @ Iowa
This is the third true road game Maryland has played this season. They lost the other two (Penn St, Seton Hall). Iowa hasn’t hosted a P5 opponent in over a month when they beat Minnesota by 20. Might be a good night to take the home dogs.
These teams are very similar in terms of tempo, both averaging 16 seconds a possession on offense and 17 on defense. Maryland has been elite defensively, especially against the 2 where they hold teams to 40% shooting. While the Terrapins have cleaned up the turnovers this year, their shooting has slipped, especially from 3 (31%). They will have a slight advantage on the boards, so expect them to work the ball inside.
Luka Garza (F, 9100) hasn’t scored under 40 DK since December 3rd vs Syracuse. He’s almost a mandatory play on the small slate. Some risk with Maryland’s stingy 2P defense, but with the home cooking in the B1G this year, I’d expect Garza to win that matchup.
Joe Wieskamp (G, 6800) has been on a heater lately, going 5x the last two, both B1G road games. What’s more impressive, the last game, he only went 1-10 from 3. Maryland giving up 36% of opponents total scoring from 3, so great GPP play.
Looks like CJ Fredrick (G, 4900) is likely out, but keep your eyes peeled for his status. Fran is notoriously secretive about player status, so it may be futile. Essentially, if he’s out, Connor McCaffery (G, 5500) will play the whole game. He’s more viable in cash than GPP however. It’s clear Joe Toussaint (G, 4500) is locking down the PG spot. He’s had 5x/6x/6x in last 3 games with a dramatic increase in minutes. Tough matchup, but too much value to leave on the table.
Jalen Smith (F, 8200) has failed to reach 4x in last 4 games. Against teams that like to push the pace, he tends to play better (Penn St, Indiana). He will have an advantage on the offensive boards and can see Maryland getting a majority of their shots in the paint. GPP play tonight with foul risk.
Anthony Cowan (G, 7800) has been right around 4x the last few games. He can flash in the right matchup (Illinois, Marquette), and this is one. He had 34 DK in Iowa City last season. He’ll have a chance to improve on that tonight.
Darryl Morsell (G, 5300) is in decent form going 4x in 2 of last 3. Strong matchup for the slashing guard against a team that gives up almost 50% 2P%. Aaron Wiggins (G, 6200) and Eric Ayala (G, 4400) can be considered in GPP in the small slate but are gambles.
Finally, are we going to see meaningful minutes from Chol Marial (F, 3900)? The big 7-footer has been getting some PT since the departure of the Mitchell twins but hasn’t played enough for DFS consideration. Donta Scott (F, 4200) played 33 minutes at the 4 against Ohio St, just missing 4x. You can take a flyer with either of these guys. If Smith gets into foul trouble, it might leave the door open for one of these players to emerge.
#6 Butler @ Providence
Butler may be the worst DFS team in the young history of college basketball daily fantasy sports.
The worst.
Make no mistake, they are a good team at “real” basketball and a legit Big East contender this year, but for what we are needing….
Somehow this team will score mid-60s points, and some guys will get rebounds and others will get assists. Vegas has the Bulldogs a -1 point favorite with an over under at 127 so let’s get started on trying to figure out who will do what.
Kamar Baldwin (G, 7500) is the logical choice given his 31% usage and 35.5% shot share, as that type of ball hoggery is reserved for guys between 8500-9500. However, with an offensive rating of 97.7 this season (the lowest of his lustrous career) the senior comes in at 7500 trying to hit 4x (30 DK) for the second time in his last 7 games.
The Bulldogs second highest priced player, Bryce Nze (F, 6400), is equally maddening have hit 4x his number (25.6 DK) once since NOVEMBER 22nd. Yes this is the #6 team in the nation, people. Awful from a DFS perspective.
Butler succeeds with selfless basketball. PG Aaron Thompson (6100) and SF Sean McDermott (F, 5900) play reliable minutes and are steady producers with safe floors. If I am playing a Bulldog tonight it will be McDermott as the shooter is in good form lately.
Bryce Golden (F, 4800) and Jordan Tucker (F, 4500) are cheaper options down low, but their game logs are more of the same. Given the slate being so small, I don’t mind Tucker in a pinch betting on his talent.
Let’s talk about the Friars.
Myself and others left this team for dead at the end of November. They were 4-4 with some resume destroying losses. Since then they have gone 6-2 and have started Big East play 3-0 with wins over resurgent Georgetown and on the road against DePaul and Marquette.
Suddenly you can say Ed’s seat is starting to Cooley…..
Alpha Diallo (G, 8600) remains the alpha for this team and is in good form. He has had 4x in 5/6. While he doesn’t have a track record of owning the Bulldogs, he has a safe floor tonight and is in play on the small slate if you want to get him in.
Conversely I cannot recommend David Duke (G, 6900) or Luwane Pipkins (G, 6000). These two are too volitale for me on a 2-game slate. Duke’s price continues to plummet but is still 1k to high. Pipkins was starting to click before foul trouble derailed his last game. While I am here I am adding AJ Reeves (G, 4500) to this paragraph. Go ahead and cue up the General Akbar gif.
I’ll close with three playable Friars and end this thing on the upswing. I like both forwards for Providence here. Nate Watson (F, 5400) has elite usage for a big, but minutes aren’t there. He is a safe cash and a potential smash. Emmitt Holt (F, 4700) has started the last 4-games during this Friar winning streak and has averaged 25 mpg. Finally, like Holt, Maliek White (G, 4600) provides steady minutes and consistent production at a cheap price.