10-games and 20-teams make up this diverse slate. Over-under range from 157 to 122 and tip offs take place at 6:00, 7:00, 7:30, and 8:00. The Price King, Marcus Howard, is on the road, but in a place that has treated him well in the past. And former price King Tyrese Haliburton is done for the year creating chaos for Iowa State.
Who will take advantage of the opportunity for the Cyclones in the pace 8:00 tip with OU? Byrd has some names for you below! Enough already lets get to it! Good luck tonight, Bucketheads!
Rutgers @ Ohio State
Statistical darling Ohio St. is currently ranked 12th on Kenpom despite a 15-8 record. They are facing a Rutgers squad that prides themselves on defense, so this should be your old school low scoring B1G battle. No reason to game stack here Bucketheads.
Myles Johnson (F, 6500) is an elite rebounder and shot blocker, but has sub-20% usage, which really hurts his upside. Ron Harper, Jr. (G, 6300) has only exceeded 23 DK points once in his last 9 games and this doesn’t feel like the spot he breaks out. Akwasi Yeboah (F, 6000) is priced up $1500 since Jan. 22nd, making him more of a 4x option at this price.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Geo Baker (G, 5600) is priced down $1600 after an injury, but just dropped 43.5 DK points in 36 minutes, making him a solid value. It’s still a tough matchup on the road against a solid D, so keep that in mind.
For the home team, Kaleb Wesson (F, 8500) has increased usage since conference play began and the highest rebounding rate in the league. Rutgers is physical down low, so probably not a smash spot, but he’s a safe option.
With Carton out, CJ Walker (G, 5400) continues to play a ton of minutes, but doesn’t do much with it. Duane Washington, Jr. (G, 5200) continues to take a massive shot share, but hasn’t actually made many baskets. The rest of the Buckeyes are high-risk GPP options at home.
Alabama @ #11 Auburn
Alabama and Arkansas hook up tonight and this game features the slates highest over-under. Sitting at 157 we want as much as possible of this one. Alabama won the first meeting in Tuscaloosa handing 21-2 Auburn their first loss of the season. Expect the Tigers to have revenge on their mind at home.
Both teams are dealing with a minor injury to key players as Herbert Jones (G/F, 6400) is out 2-4 weeks with a wrist for the Tide and Danjel Purifoy (F, 5900) is questionable dealing with a bad flu that held him out of last game and practice all week.
Alabama has played without Jones for the last three, and Javian Davis (F, 4300) has picked up his starting role. He has gone 4x in 2-of-those-3 games so he is one of many cheap ways to get exposure to this one. Another is James Bolden (G, 3500), who returned from a two-game absence and put up a cool 7x last time out. Finally for the Tide, Galin Smith (F, 3400) will play between 10-20 minutes, but prefer Bolden if going that low.
Savings aside, Kira Lewis Jr. (8300) and John Petty Jr. (8000) lead the Bama attack. Both have slate smashing upside. At the mid-range price point you are looking at Jaden Shackleford (G, 6100) and Alex Reese (F, 5800). Neither are in great form, but capable of putting up a 40 DK night.
Auburn is all mid-range pricing. Samir Doughty (G, 6800) is their highest price player with the rest of the Tigers playable, and between 6800 and 5400. We mentioned Purifoy at 5900 and will watch his status. If he misses the game you could take a flier on Devan Cambridge (G, 3900) who played 29 minutes last game in his absence and has broken slates twice in the past 20 days with a 35 and 28 DK outbursts. GPP only though.
This Auburn team is projected to score 82 points, they don’t have a player over 6.8k, and only play 6 guys. All Tigers are safe in cash formats with high ceilings due to lack of depth. Bama is a little more GPP worthy as they are on the road, but it is a must win for Nate Oats if he wants to keep is tourney hopes alive. All things considered: Load up. Sit back. Relax. Enjoy.
#3 Kansas @ #14 West Virginia
KenPom’s #1 defense in adjusted efficiency heads to Morgantown to face the #2 defense in adjusted efficiency. KU won 60-53 in their first matchup in Lawrence, but the Jayhawks are 1-5 in Morgantown over the last 6 years. There’s more than just seeding on the line here, as Huggy Bear also gets a $25k bonus every time he beats the Jayhawks. Should be a great game and solid spot to take the home dog.
Our Bucketheads know WVU hasn’t given up 60 at home since Dec. 1st, so not an ideal spot for the Jayhawks. Devon Dotson (G, 8600) has a chance to hit 30+ DK, but hard to imagine he smashes the slate at this price point. Udoka Azubuike (F, 8400) has played well since his tiff with Coach Self, dropping 35 and 49 DK in his last 2. He dropped 44 DK at home vs. WVU in their first matchup, but just keep in mind WVU is elite at home and Tshiebwe can match Dok down low physically.
Marcus Garrett (G, 6600) struggled last game, but has been consistently above 4x. WVU can get sloppy, so he has some steal upside and should have a safe floor. Ochai Agbaji (G, 5600) is a scoring dependent tourney option and Christian Braun (G, 4400) finally came back to earth last game after a great stretch of play. Both are very risky on the road against an elite defense.
Oscar Tshiebwe (F, 6900) price continues to drop despite 30 and 27 DK in his last 2. He had 44.8 DK at KU, so he’s a solid tourney option. Derek Culver (F, 6800) has similar upside, but way more volatility due to his lack of full minute share. Jermaine Haley (G, 5700) is WVU’s best wing scorer and has 28 DK in back to back, but just understand that WVU plays one of the deepest benches in the nation and Huggins will ride the hot hand. Beyond that, there is no one you can trust on a game to game basis for the Mountaineers, especially against an elite KU defense.
Connecticut @ SMU
We have a little American Athletic love tonight with UConn traveling to Dallas to take on Southern Methodist. Vegas has the Mustangs as a -5 point favorite and the over-under is at 136. This will be a pace up game for SMU, which is good if you like playing Kendric Davis (G, 8200).
Davis, the Mustang point guard, needs 32.8 DK points to hit value something he has done 9/11 times in 2020. He is also in great form coming off 46.5 and 51.8 DK efforts in his last two.
After Davis, the forwards usually take center stage for SMU, however, neither Isaiah Mike (7800), Ferron Hunt (6600) nor Ethan Chargois (4900) are in very good form right now. UConn isn’t the best rebounding team so it could be a spot where one of them bounces back, but on this large slate I am staying away from the group.
Other Mustangs to consider are Tyson Jolly (G, 7400) who plays a ton of minutes and is a solid cash play, or at a discount, CJ White (G, 4000) who has just about 6x in three straight.
For UConn, Christian Vital (G, 7900) remains their top DFS option. His rebounding upside is rare for a guard. Alterique Gilbert (G, 6200) and James Bouknight (G, 6200) share the back court with Vital. I prefer Bouknight of the two as his current form is better.
Three forwards are all playable in the mid 5k range for UConn, but neither inspire a ton of confidence. I’ll list them in order of preference and then just move on. Akok Akok (5700), Josh Carlton (5500), Isaiah Whaley (5800).
Before I go there are two cheap GPP Darts deep on the Husky bench. Brendan Adams (G, 3900) has 4x or more in 3-of-5, and Jalen Gaffney (G, 3800) has played between 19 and 36 minutes in his last 5 games. Not saying get them in, but someone to put on your radar potentially.
#5 Louisville @ Georgia Tech
With guard play improving of late, Louisville has won 10 straight, including half of those games away from home. They’ll get another chance to show off their road chops at Georgia Tech, who has a strong defense and really limits looks from beyond the arc.
Jordan Nwora (F, 8100) was nworrible from the field at home v. GT, but it’s hard not to consider a potential first-team All-American who has a 4x, 4x, and 7x in his last 4 at this price. Easier to fade the likes of Dwayne Sutton (F, 6100) has a 13% shot percentage, which is incredibly low. He’s a solid rebounder, but you are betting on a lot of put backs from a low usage option.
Steven Enoch (F, 5100) and Malik Williams (F, 4900) cannabilize each other a bit, but if forced I’d save the $200 for Williams. Randomly, Fresh Kimble (G, 4400) has seen the bulk of the minutes recently while Johnson, McMahon, and Perry are playing a bit less. This backcourt is unpredictable right now, so play at your own risk.
Michael Devoe (G, 6700) was a low $8k player in January and appears fully recovered from an injury. While he’s a bit of a turnover machine and Louisville is a strong defense, he’s got 20 real point upside at home at a reasonable price. James Banks III (F, 6700) and Moses Wright (F, 6500) are both great rebounders. Banks has a bit higher upside, but both are moderate options.
Jose Alvarado (G, 6400) price continues to climb, but he’s a low $7k talent with strong usage, assist rates, and steal upside at home. He has over 30 DK in 4 of 6, including 53.5 on Jan. 25th. Jordan Usher (G/F, 4400) is playing 30 minutes a game and has 4x potential as a home value option.
#18 Marquette @ #15 Villanova
Villanova host Marquette in desperate need of a Big East win having dropped 3-straight league games (2 of which at home). Earlier in the year Marquette won this match-up in Milwaukee 71-60, but Vegas has the Wildcats as -5 point favorites this time. The over-under is a playable 145 so let’s dive in.
Markus Howard (G, 9400) has home and road spits that are well documented and this game is on the road. He has only 4x this price point in 2 of his last 6 road games (one of which required OT). All that being said, Howard has never been phased by playing in Philly and Nova has never really guarded him that well regardless of location. In his last 3 games at The Pavilion, he went for 25, 37, and 21 real points. Howard is fine if you want to pay up.
I am not paying up for Sacar Anim (G/F, 7300) who has burned DFS players in his last two. Koby McEwen (G, 6600) has been the much better value and is really growing into that secondary scorer role.
Forwards Brendan Bailey (5800) and Theo John (5200) are active, but risky. Jayce Johnson (F, 4600) has 4x in his last two and I would take him over the dopplegangery priced Jamal Cain (F, 4600). Minutes should be there for all the forwards as Nova employs an active group of bigs.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 7700) is probably over priced for me, but he will play 34 minutes and grab double digit boards. If he contributes offensively he can hit value. Saddiq Bey (F, 7400) has been the more offensive forward of late going for 22+ real points in 3-of-4.
While we are discussing forwards, someone check on Byrd’s status as his boy Jermaine Samuels (F, 6400) hasn’t hit value in 4-straight. Could the DFS love-couple be breaking up?
Samuels is a good player and he’ll get back to form, but I want to see him break out first. Still think he is a hair overpriced.
Collin Gillespie (G, 7600) is not overpriced #transition. He is always going to be a great cash play with upside. I like him a lot at home. The rest of the VU guards are GPP darts.
Florida @ Texas A&M
Texas A&M is rebuilding and rebranding and that is something Florida may be doing soon if they don’t get things back on track. Tonight the two face off in College Station and the 14-9 Gators are -5.5 point favorites over Buzz Williams’ 11-11 Aggie team. The over-under is just 125.5 so not going to get too deep into this one.
Both teams play at tempos ranked around 300 per KenPom so expect this to be a slow plodding affair. Texas A&M does an excellent job defending the paint, but doesn’t fair as well defending the arc. In fact 39.6% of all points scored on the Aggies come from deep. That number is 4th in the nation whereas only 42.1% come from 2 which is 341st in the nation.
This does not bode well for the Kerry Blackshear (F, 7500) and Keyontae Johnson (F, 7400) from an offensive standpoint. Rebounding should be fine as the Aggies have a 43.75% effective FG% 347thworst in the nation, but I am staying away due to the limited number of possessions and lack offensive upside.
Similarly, lead guard Andrew Nembhard (G, 7300) isn’t much of a perimeter threat so take him down a little as well. You have to attack A&M from deep. If you are going with a Gator, consider the shooters Noah Locke (G, 5000) or Tre Mann (G, 4000).
Conversely, A&M is an awful shooting team so no need to find shooters there. I’ll mention Savion Flagg (G/F, 6300) as a playable option but he isn’t the Savion Flagg who routinely smashed a year ago. Wendell Mitchell (G, 4700) plays all the minutes and is 4x or 5x in his last 4. I am not paying up for Josh Nebo (F, 7000) and the rest of the Aggies are all in that mid 4k range. With them you are playing DFS roulette, or whatever this game is.
Michigan @ Northwestern
Death, taxes, and Northwestern finishing last in the B1G. With 9 losses and a 5-7 record in conference, Michigan cannot afford a slip up here. As you’d expect, Northwestern likes to play slow, isn’t good defensively, and gives up a massive amount of 3s and assists.
Isaiah Livers (F, 5300) played 31 minutes and profiles incredibly well against a NW team that gets torched behind the arc. Zavier Simpson (G, 8000) is a fantastic cash game option, as he should hit 4x easily due to his assist rates. Jon Teske (F, 7200) is priced at a season low, so he’s a potential buy low candidate if you can get past his lack-luster recent performance.
Franz Wagner (G, 6300) continues to play a ton of minutes and provides a safe floor with upside. Michigan is projected for 72 points tonight in a must win game, so I’m giving Howard the benefit of the doubt that he can get his troops ready for a winnable road game in the B1G.
Moving on to the Wildcats, Miller Kopp (F, 6100) is very scoring dependent, but he’ll get up a ton of shots at home, giving him 4x potential. Pat Spencer (G, 6000) plays all the minutes and while he has limited upside, he’s an ok option. I’d rather take a shot on Boo Buie (G, 5700), who has 28% usage and 25% assist rates and was dropping 30 DK points regularly before he was injured. That’s the extent of my interest in Northwestern.
Clemson @ Pittsburgh
With 10 games on the slate and James in San Diego, we are keeping this one as short as possible. The over under is a slate-low 122 so you shouldn’t be looking here for too much action anyway.
Aamir Simms (F, 7800) missed last game with the flu, but should be back. He is about all you are looking for on the Clemson side. Tevin Mack (G/F, 6800) is a high risk GPP option and John Newman III (G, 5900) hasn’t hit value in his last 5.
Xavier Johnson (G, 7200) has 30+ DK in 3-straight while Justin Champagnie (F, 7100) has 50 points and 20 boards over his last 2. Trey McGowens(G, 6500) has a high floor at home while Au’Diese Toney (F, 5600) is playing a ton of minutes recently, giving him a safe floor at home as well.
Just remember, with a 122 over/under, this is an ugly game environment from a DFS perspective.
To add a little length, here is a random dog GIF that Twitter analysis says our audience will really like. Like this game being written up, we are here for you!
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
As our Bucketheads know, Tyrese Haliburton is out for the year with a season ending wrist injury. He’ll likely enter the draft, so it’s sad to see his collegiate career end early. Iowa St. should be a complete mess without him, so I’d expect a Sooner smash tonight in an up-tempo game.
Well, the good news is we get a fast tempo, pacey game and Iowa St. roster is thin. Prentiss Nixon (G, 4800) should start at PG and is a great value play as a proven starter at Colorado St and he has steal upside too. Rasir Bolton (G, 7500) should continue to take a ton of shots, but I don’t love him at this price point.
Solomon Young (F, 5000) has bizarro game logs, but is coming off a 36.8 DK effort and there is no reason not to play him a ton of minutes down the home stretch. He’s a good value option on the road but is a tourney option only. Terrence Lewis (G, 4200) should play some more minutes as well, making him a risky dart throw.
I expect OU to play well tonight, so the big three are all viable…Kristian Doolittle (F, 7900), Brady Manek (F, 7700), and Austin Reaves (G, 7000). Doolittle is playing mid-30 minutes per game and dropped 50 DK his last time out. Iowa St. isn’t great on the boards, so a double-double is very possible at home for Kristian. Manek has at least 14 shots in 3 straight and is averaging 31 DK points at home this season. Reaves stunk last game, but he plays a ton of minutes and averages 4x at this price point at home.
Despite a really bad season, Jamal Bieniemy (G, 4800) has gone 4x/5x in his last 2 games, playing high 30s minutes in both. He’s still risky, but at least he’s shown signs of life recently.
Best of luck tonight Bucketheads!! Hope to see you guys at the top of the leaderboard!!