Before we get to our Saturday Morning Shootaround Podcast prep, we need to get Friday’s slate written up. It is an interesting little 4-gamer with 2 match-ups from the Atlantic 10 and two more from the Atlantic Coast Conference. That is some serious east coast love.
The $4k spin move is giving $1,000 to first so below you will find all the info you need on these 8 teams to win all the money. Good luck tonight Bucketheads! We’ll be dropping the pod later in the evening, so look for that too! Have a big weekend!
Richmond @ Duquesne
The Dukes of Duquense host the Spiders of Richmond in their A-10 regular season finale. Richmond prefers to play up tempo while the Dukes sit at 215th in tempo. Duquense likes to run teams off the 3-point line and have some block upside. Both teams play a consistent rotation, which is good news for our Bucketheads.
Grant Golden (F, 7200) has 28% usage, but he’s not scoring dependent. He has strong rebounding and assist rates with some block upside, making him a high floor play. He’s playable in all formats. Blake Francis (G, 7600) is the opposite, as he’s fully scoring dependent but his 30.7% shot percentage while on the floor reminds me of my youth. He’s got the green light to shoot the minute he steps off the bus.
Jacob Gilyard (G, 8000) has a top 6 steal rate in the nation and elite assist rates. Considering he doesn’t take a ton of shots, he’s really dependent on those steal points to hit value. Strictly based off analytics, I’m shocked he’s $800 more than Golden. Nick Sherod (G, 6800) is their 3rd leading scorer and has been in good form recently, but as Joe says, do you want to spend almost $7k on a 3rd leading scorer?
I like Nathan Cayo (F, 4700) as a value option, as he’s hit 4-5x in 6 of his last 7. If he can get 30 minutes of PT, he should be in good shape for 20+ DK points. The rest of the Spiders present a sticky situation for our Bucketheads, so I’d avoid them completely.
Marcus Weathers (F, 8200) has 6 30+ DK games since the beginning of Feb. He’s a strong rebounder, has some block upside, and sits around mid-20s in usage. He’s a pretty safe 4x option at home, although I don’t see him ever breaking a slate. Sincere Carry (G, 7100) has a higher ceiling than Weathers, but at a bit more risk. He’s going to play every minute and has elite assist rates, so he’s a solid option in all formats.
Michael Hughes (F, 6900) has been incredibly efficient offensively this year, making the most of his 20% usage. He’s a fantastic rebounder and has top 10 shot blocking rates in the nation. While Weathers is preferable in cash, I like the upside and lower price point of Hughes in tourneys. Tavian Dunn-Martin (G, 5400) went HAM last game, dropping 38.8 DK points. He has the highest shot % on the team, he just needs consistent minutes. If he hits 30 minutes of playing time, he averages damn near 30 DK in those games. If you think he’ll get the minutes tonight, get him in your lineups.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
I don’t think either of these teams is in any real danger of making the tournament at this point, so we’ll just play this one for funsies.
Two weeks ago, Tech won this game convincingly in Atlanta 68-59. Georgia Tech defends the 3 well, only allowing opponents to get 24% of their scoring from there. Clemson is among the worst shooting teams in the league (31%) and only went 2-20 last time so don’t sell-out on Tigers’ shooters. Clemson is an awful offensive rebounding team so give Tech a little bump there. The Yellow Jackets are the sloppiest team in the league turning the ball over 23% of their possessions, so Clemson players will have some steal upside.
Jose Alvarado (G, 7400) is an attractive play on this slate. He had 5x against Clemson last time and coming off a 6x game vs Pitt. Minutes are maxed, shot share is high. The only major risk is the road atmosphere, as he’s -5 DK. Think you can play him in any format on this slate however.
Sometimes Michael Devoe (G, 6800) plays like Ricky Bell, other times like Michael Bivens. What I’m trying to say is, sometimes his game is above the rim, other times it’s poison. He had 5x against them last time, so can come through in GPP. You might like him in cash, but hey, you do you, I’ll do me.
James Banks (F, 6700) is very matchup dependent and this is just an ok one. He can add a ton of value with steals and blocks, but sometimes he strikes out with points and rebounds. I’d firmly place him in higher risk GPP territory. Moses Wright (F, 6500) has some GPP pop when the shots are falling but much safer plays at his price considering the game scenario.
Aamir Simms (F, 7300) struggled (understandably) against Florida State (17 DK) and inexplicably against Virginia Tech (13 DK). We can only assume his sudden drop in production is coronavirus related at this point. He got close to 5x against Clemson last time and at home tonight, so worth a shot in GPP.
Tevin Mack (G/F, 6300) is capable of flashing 5x even though his last 5 games are underwhelming. Had 21 DK last time on 4-12 shooting. That should improve at home. Sprinkle in some steal upside, a reduced price, and you have a recipe for GPP success. Similar situation for John Newmann (G, 6000), but he’s more shooting dependent so a bit more of a gamble.
Not sure what happened to Al-Amir Dawes (G, 5400) last game, 6 DK on 1-7 shooting, but he was on fire prior to that. He had 5x last time against Tech, so I think you reload him tonight.
Wake Forest @ North Carolina State
The Wolfpack are trying to make a case for an at-large bid, making this game against Wake Forest a must-win. These teams met back in December and totaled 173 points before NC State got the victory, so should be some nice DFS heat for a Friday.
Brandon Childress (G, 7800) is far from a sure thing. He’s matching his peak price right now as well, so he’s riskier than usual. Yet, 5x last game at UNC and 5x last time these two played. He’s an easy GPP call on the small slate and he’ll spray it.
Olivier Sarr (F, 7700) has been beast mode on the boards his last two games, pulling down 17 and 11 respectively. His last 3 games are 5x/7x/4x. (that 4x might be a generous pour but you get the picture). Likely won’t see the scoring outburst, but he’ll produce.
Seems like Chaundee Brown (G, 6400) pulled this gimmick last season where he had a bunch of big games towards the end of the season. He had less than 10 DK last time vs the Pack but 5x in 4 of last 6, so you can roll the dice.
Two value plays that should be on your radar are Isaiah Mucius (F, 4800) and Jahcobi Neath (G, 4600). Both have seen a ramp in minutes and production late in the season and are both very live GPP plays tonight with upside.
I’m tired of writing up Markell Johnson (G, 7500). You know what he is by now. He’s a lottery ticket.
DJ Funderburk (F, 7100) is probably a little overpriced right now. He’s playable in cash, but I’m probably off him in GPP; try to find a higher ceiling option.
Devon Daniels (G, 7000) and CJ Bryce (G, 6300) both had 5x against the Deacons last time. Still a strong matchup for both guards. I think you want one of them on your roster, but I can’t say that one looks a lot better than the other tonight.
Jericole Hellems (F, 5200) normally has more cash value than GPP, tonight is no different. Manny Bates (F, 4800) can be dead money sometimes with huge foul risk, but 4x last time. I think he’s playable on this slate in GPP, particularly if you tell Funderburk to take a hike.
VCU @ Davidson
Davidson will be looking for revenge from their road loss earlier this year 73-62. Unfortunately for VCU fans, this team looks quite a bit different for game 2. Marcus Evans, Vince Williams, and Corey Douglas are out and De’Riante Jenkins has left the team due to personal reasons. Hard not to liked Davidson as a small favorite tonight against a less than full strength Rams team that has struggled on the road.
Marcus Santos-Silva (F, 8100) is the undisputed alpha at this point and has taken to that role well, scoring over 35 DK in 4 of his last 6, including 46 DK last game. He’s a high floor play as long as he can avoid foul trouble. Nah’Shon Hyland (G, 5600) has taken over the reins at PG, should get 30+ minutes, has 25% usage and offers our Bucketheads a high floor.
Issac Vann (F, 5100) hasn’t done much lately and has sub-20% usage, so he’s a high risk tourney option only despite playing around 30 minutes/game. Mike’L Simms (G, 4500) has taken advantage of unconventional spelling and more importantly, he’s taken advantage of additional minutes with all the injuries lately. Mike’L and KeShawn Curry (G, 4400) are both solid value option on the road, but just keep in mind that Davidson loves to play slow and the over/under is uninspiring.
For Davidson, Jon Axel Gudmundsson (G, 8300) is going to play every minute and can do a bit of everything. With a pace up home game, he feels like a safe 4x play but I’m not sure about his ceiling. Speaking of high floors, Kellan Grady (G, 7900) has at least 28.5 DK points in 6 straight and 7 of his last 10.
I’m not in love with any of the remaining options for the Wildcats. Luka Brajkovic (F, 5300) has nice usage and block rates, but he hasn’t shown much upside all season and hasn’t hit 4x in 3 straight. I’d focus on some of other value options to fill out your roster, along with a Davidson stud at home in a winnable matchup.
