CBB DFS: Hot Takes from the Big Ten

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In lieu of conference previews this year @CBB_DFS is going to bring our Bucketheads a list of 10 DFS related things that caught our eye in each conference during our research. We’ll also knock out a list of 15 mid major hot takes in DFS before we tip! This way our readers/listeners/watchers can be ready to go when those first CBB slates drop on 11/25!

Thanks to a, more or less, night-in night-out schedule and a slew of top-25 powerhouse teams, Bucketheads kept their head on a swivel trying to follow the B1G last season. That’s what you have to do when you find yourself in a vicious cock fight, and this season should be no different. Due to the pandemic and an influx of not-quite-NBA-ready talent, many of the all-conference stars are back on their respective teams. While you can certainly count on Gangs of New York-style brawls in the real games, you’ll also find a smorgasbord of elite DFS pricing and tremendous value alike. Luka Garza should routinely be atop the highest price tier once again, while newcomers like Liam Robbins (replacing Daniel Oturu in Minnesota) could have smash potential. Let’s dive into my hottest takes this upcoming season. Find a safehouse and grab a trident because things are about to escalate quickly!

  • Since we’re on the topic of Garza, let’s talk about Iowa this year. Many pundits have the Hawkeyes emerging as the conference champion and for good reason. They return nearly every meaningful minute from last season’s 5th place team. They were also 5th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, which is fancy talk for good at scoring. All this means that if pricing stays consistent, Garza could easily cost you north of $10k on a given night for a piece of his 24 and 10 action. You might be better served targeting sharp-shooters Joe Wieskamp and CJ Fredrick in favorable matchups at mid-tier pricing.
  • Next let’s head to Madison to peep a Badger team that was puzzling at best and frustrating at worst when trying to construct a roster around any of their players. We loved Nate Reuvers at the beginning of last season to slide right into the Ethan Happ role. It didn’t play out that way, eventually giving up ground to Buckeyes transfer Micah Potter by mid-season. Human try-hard Brad Davison is basically Chet from Weird Science with a jump shot. Best smile will once again go to Aleem “the Dream” Ford. Otherwise, expect more of the same DFS guessing games from Wisconsin this season with one eye on Potter early. If he can get his mins above 25/game, he could be a DFS difference-maker.
  • It will be interesting to see how DK prices Ayo Dosunmu this season. If he can maintain the $7k-8k pricing we often saw him at last season, that would be ideal. Even on a bad shooting night, he is a high floor player with solid usage and shot share (25%/27%). Kofi Cockburn was dominant at times last season and could put up some very weird numbers at times this year. Target him early against inferior matchups. Keep an eye on Freshman Adam Miller. He’ll be in the running for freshman of the year and is a high-level shooter. Get on him before his price creeps.
  • Sparty will look to replace All-Everything PG Cassius Winston and versatile big man Xavier Tillman. They do bring in the “bad” Hauser (Joey) from Marquette. He can be effective in Izzo’s pick-n-pop offense and someone to watch. This team is full of big play potential actually starting with the return of Josh Langford. If he can return to his 5-star form, he could be a DFS mainstay. Same story for Rocket Watts who came alive late in the season averaging 25 DK over his last 4 games. Tillman has big shoes to fill in what will likely be a committee approach early-on. Look for Malik Hall to make a Sophomore jump.
  • The Hoosiers could surprise this year. They do return a ton of minutes from a fairly young team, anchored by stud Sophomore Trayce Jackson-Davis. He should carry a high price tag this year after averaging nearly 14 and 9 last season on very modest usage, 22%. Assuming that increases, he should be a DFS target. I also like Rob Phinisee to become DFS relevant. With the departure of ball-hog Devonte Green, Phinisee should see a bump in usage and shot share (21%/20%). His high assist rate (28%) gives him a nice floor and could be a solid cash play most nights. In GPP, instead look at 5-star Freshman Khristian Lander who should be a bargain early and could easily be second option to TJD by season’s end.
  • Rising Sophomore EJ Liddell started to find his groove by season’s end, accentuated by a 17 and 11 outburst against the Illini’s big front-line. With the departure of the Wesson bros, freeing up 60 minutes of Buckeyes’ front court playing time and 26% usage, Liddell could be in for a break-out season. Keep a look out for Seth Towns though, Harvard transfer who averaged 16 and 6 in the nerd league, as well as Justice Sueing, Cal’s best player 2 seasons ago. Don’t go Goldie Hawn overboard though as this team was #315 in tempo last season.
  • One of my favorite teams to uncover GPP gold this season is the Scarlett Knights of Rutgers. Guys like Geo Baker, Ron Harper Jr, and Myles Johnson are threat to go off any night and can commonly be found at a sub-$8k price point. Throw in Jacob Young who had 13 double digits scoring games off the bench last season, leading the team in usage and shot share. Lengthy Caleb McConnell also turned in some nice performances. Prized recruit and top-50 big man Cliff Omoruyi is the future, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see some big games next season. He’s still raw but his aggression around the rim is palpable, shades of Bruno Fernando from Maryland a couple years ago.
  • The Golden Gophers are intriguing on paper. One of the rare teams that basketball fans largely ignore, but Bucketheads lock into due to recent DFS studs like Jordan Murphy and Daniel Oturu. They’re gone but PG Marcus Carr is still there. He logged multiple 20+ point games last season at 26% usage and knocked on the door of a triple-double more than once. Drake transfer (and recent Kareem Abdul-Jabbar watchlist addition) Liam Robbins is a skilled big man that could quickly emerge as the next big post threat for Minny. Utah transfer Both Gach will be an outside threat (Gach-ya!) and yeah, Jamal Mashburn’s kid is on the team. He’s only 6’ tall though so cool out.
  •  We talk a lot about the stud DFS players that everyone knows but most often the best DFS plays are the ones that maximize their respective value. Guys that take advantage of additional PT due to injury or are simply priced too low. Michigan had several guys fall into that category last season. Guys like Franz Wagner, Brandon Johns Jr, and Eli Brooks all flashed at various times with the former becoming a legit stud by season’s end. Isaiah Livers is back and should be the main bucket-getter. Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown was granted immediate eligibility however and could surprise. 
  • As we survey the best of the rest, it would be tough to miss Trevion Williams and his 31% usage last season. He could be an even bigger ball-hog this season, especially now that hair-flip Haarms is out of there. Myreon Jones could have an even bigger scoring role for the Nittany Lions this season. He shot 40% from 3 on 24% shot share. Junior Aaron Wiggins will be the Terps top returning scorer and will likely see a bump in usage. Finally, I really like Pitt transfer Trey McGowens playing for the Mayor in Lincoln. He’s a good fit for the up-tempo offense there and should stand out early on. Did I miss any teams? Nope, that’s every single relevant B1G team. Good luck everyone!