DraftKings has a big pay day up for grabs tonight as $25,000 will go to the winner of the Tuesday Turnaround. The slate features 6 games. The Midshipmen from Navy will make the short trip from Annapolis to DC to play Georgetown. Marquette will host Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State. The Maui Invitational continues from chilly Asheville, but it is the annual Champions Classic that has the CBB world a buzz.
Cal. Izzo. K. Self. – They never disappoint. This year’s showcase has Michigan State heading to Durham to take on Duke, while Kansas and Kentucky hook up in Indianapolis. Like usual we have it all broken down below. Over/Unders are 152 and 146 respectively and both lines opened at a tight -3.5 (Duke and Kansas).
You know we have the Champions Classic and everything on this slate covered from top to bottom. We had a great start to the year yesterday so let’s keep it going and win all the money!
The Hilltoppers will take a trip to the KFC Yum Center to face off against a Louisville team that hasn’t quite figured itself out yet. This should be a slower paced affair that may struggle to get into the 140s and end up closer than the line suggests. WKU has already beaten Northern Iowa and Memphis, most recently losing a close game to West Virginia. Louisville, on the other hand, needed every fortuitus bounce to edge Seton Hall last Friday.
Radford transfer Carlik Jones (G, 8500) has looked every bit the part so far this season. He played 40 mins against SHU, scoring 18 points; grabbing 11 boards and 6 assists, which would’ve been good for 5x at this price. I like him a little more in cash than GPP. David Johnson (G, 6700) was more active against Prairie View, hitting 6x in 37 mins. The shots and minutes are there, but he’s been plagued by inconsistency; high upside GPP play tonight.
Samuell Williamson (G/F, 6200) is questionable with a toe. If he can go, I think the former 5-star recruit is a great value at this price. Quinn Slazinski (F, 4200) got the start in place of Williamson. He’s hitting 4x anyway, but obviously a great value if he starts once again.
Big man Jae’Lyn Withers (F, 5100) averaged 32 mpg his last two games and turned in 4x and 6x performances. He has a tough challenge against one of the best bigs in the country however, making him a risky GPP play. Dre Davis (G/F, 5700) has been playing well but I feel he’s a bit overpriced in a tough matchup.
Keep an eye on Taveion Hollingsworth (G, 7400). He has a hyperextended arm and is a GTD. He’s the Hilltoppers’ primary backcourt scoring threat at 28.4% shot share. Tough to say who gets the starting nod if Hollingsworth can’t go. My guess is Fr. Dayvion McKnight (G, 3800) who had 36DK in 25 mins against UNI.
The aforementioned big man is Charles Bassey (F, 8100). He splashed the pot against Memphis scoring a 53-burger. He had a tougher time against WVU’s front court naturally in limited minutes. Louisville doesn’t really have the size to deal with him, unless they give the Irish Hulk a significant bump in minutes. He’s clearly a GPP play but one I really like.
The rest of the Hilltoppers aren’t as attractive. Carson Williams (F, 6100) is a bit overpriced for me. Luke Frampton (G, 4000) and Kenny Cooper (G, 4000) are both cheap, shot-dependent options. I favor the latter.
The Hoyas are a -10 point favorite and the over/under is a slate low 140.5 for this throw in game. Why wouldn’t DraftKings wait an hour or two and include Alabama vs. UNLV instead?
Regardless, the work remains and the Bucketheads expect us to deliver, so with out further adieu – here we go.
The Midshipmen have three games under their belt already and sit at 2-1 with their only loss coming to Maryland. Cam Davis (G, 6400) leads the team in minutes and scoring. He is their safest play and has the makeup of a rock solid cash game guy. John Carter Jr. (G, 4700) is more of your GPP flier as he gets up 7 triples a game and one hot night could equal a slate breaker at that price. After those two guards, 7 guys play 21-14 minutes per game making the rest of the Navy team are lost at sea for me.
Georgetown has played one game this year and looked pretty good in it. Jahvon Blair (G/F, 8300) had a monster with a 23-8-4 line that boosted his DK price. He’s probably their best player, but at that price… I can’t do it. Need to see it a few times as he and Jamorko Pickett (G/F, 6900) really shared scoring duties last year after the season for the Hoyas blew up.
One Georgetown play I do feel pretty confident about is next-in-line big man Qudus Wahab (F, 6300). He had a 12 and 12 DD in the opener in just 21 minutes. Adding in his two blocks and a steal, the sophomore center averaged a cool 1.5 fantasy points per minute.
The final playable Hoyas are Donald Carey (G, 5500) and Jalen Harris (G, 4600). There are probably better options in this price range on the slate, but each of these two should see around 30 minutes. Carey will get up threes, and Harris can be a big assist man at times.
After getting depantsed by Indiana yesterday, Ed Cooley said that we would see a “totally different (Providence) team” tomorrow. God I hope so. The Friars lost by 21 and never got within double digits in the second half. The team shoot just 37% from the field and hit just 3-of-17 three point attempts. Am I being too hard? Should I apologize?
I was high on Providence to begin the year so I regret nothing. David Duke (G, 7100) is someone I touted as an outside shot to win Big East POY. He had 12 points and 4 turnovers, so I expect a bounce back from him. Nate Watson (F, 5900) as well should improve on his 12 point 5 rebound performance.
The rest of the Friars have disappointed over the team’s first two games. Point guard Jared Bynum (G, 5000) is playing almost 30 minutes a game, but the shot has been off (25% FGs). Still, at this price he provides value. AJ Reeves (G, 5900) is getting up 6 threes a game but not really hitting them or producing ancillary stats. Greg Gantt (F, 3500) starts and is more talented than his numbers reflect.
For Davidson, the entire starting 5 is playing over 28 minutes per game with Kellen Grady, (G, 6600) rarely coming off the floor (37 mpg) and taking 31% of the team’s shots. He seems like a phenomenal play in all formats. Hyunjung Lee (G/F, 7300) offers some unique position flexibility and is the team’s leading assist man.
If you are looking for cheaper exposure here the remaining starters for Davidson are all under 5k and playable if you have a smaller financial hole to fill out your builds. Sam Mennenga (F, 4500) and Luka Brajkovic (F, 4200) start down low. I prefer Mennenga. Carter Collins (G, 4900) has 10 assists in two games.
The over/under here is 142.5 and the Friars are a -2.5 favorite. The total is one of the lower ones on this slate, so don’t go too crazy but there is some pretty good value here.
The Cade Cunningham show heads to Milwaukee for a great matchup vs. Marquette. This game has a solid 146.5 o/u in what should be a close game (Marquette -3.5). Although the Cowboys have trotted to a middling pace, they’ll get a pace up game here against Marquette. Both teams have played an above average amount of bench minutes, so keep that in mind.
Next year’s #1 overall pick in the draft Cade Cunningham (G, 9200) has been as good as advertised. He’s got 30% usage offensively and can fill up the stat sheet. If you can afford him, he’s always going to be in play given his massive upside and pace up opponent. Issac Likekele (G, 7900) will play Robin to Cade’s Batman role this year, but he’s a heck of a player too. Likekele has had microscopic offensive usage and no steals this year despite being top 65 in steal rate last season, yet he’s still averaging 28 DK points a game. His price is a tad high, but he can do a bit of everything and will be critical in this fast-paced matchup.
In theory, Kalib Boone (F, 5000) is the preferred twin to target over his brother Keylan Boone (F, 4900), although the game logs won’t reflect that. Kalib has an impressive 9.3 fouls committed per 40 minutes, which is cool if you are trying to foul out of the same game twice. If he can stay on the floor, he’s a decent value play. If he continues to be hatchey, Keylan will continue to see increased tick.
Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (F, 5200), Avery Anderson III (G, 5600), Ferron Flavors (G, 5100), and Ronel Walker (G, 4500) are all playing right around 50% of the minutes, making it hard to delineate between this foursome. MAM has elite bloodlines (both his cousins play in the NBA, including Shai Gilgous-Alexander) and the highest usage of the bunch, but they are all riskier options given this teams balance and singular offensive focus in Cunningham.
Dawson Garcia (F, 7900) will be overshadowed by Cunningham, but he shouldn’t be overlooked by our Bucketheads this year. Garcia is the highest ranked freshmen to join the Big East this season and the lefty has looked fantastic early on. He can do a bit of everything and is fairly priced. Theo John (F, 7700) is averaging a double-double early on despite 10% usage on the offensive end. Theo should flirt with double digits boards again and has some block upside, but his lack of offensive participation hurts his ceiling.
Highly regarded Ohio State transfer DJ Carton (G, 6300) hasn’t started a game yet, which was a huge surprise, but he got 30 minutes of playing time last game and should be in when the game matters the most. His pedigree and ability to score DFS points in a multitude of ways make him very playable at this price despite his “reserve” role. I also prefer Coby McEwen (G, 5800) for $700 less than guard Symir Torrence. McEwen has a stable role in the offense and should be a 4x option at a reasonable price point.
Jamal Cain (F, 5800) has taken 19 shots in 2 games against inferior opponents, doubling his usage compared to his junior year. Freshmen Justin Lewis (F, 4800) 25% usage also seems a bit inflated, making both of these guys prime candidates for some regression against a superior opponent to the first two cupcakes they faced.
Per usual, the Blue Devils’ first away game doesn’t happen for over two more weeks. They’ll host a Sparty team tonight that perhaps is a bit slept on, if that is possible. Michigan St is playing extremely unselfishly so far, leading the country in Assists per Made Field Goal. Duke has only played #327 Coppin St so far, so we don’t know a ton about them. They do have two budding stars that will get their first real college basketball exam.
One of those freshmen is Jalen Johnson (F, 8800), and he sure seems like the real deal. He put up 19 and 19 in 35 mins in his first game. That will be a tall order tonight, but last year’s stud big, Vernon Carey hung 26 and 11 on the Spartans so not impossible. The other freshman, Chicago native DJ Steward (G, 7200) was impressive as well, hitting 6x in 33 mins, on 18 shots (4-9 3P). I would be shocked if K gives him that kind of green light in this one as he may lean a little more towards his veterans. He should be considered risky GPP plays until we see it against a real team. Sparty excels at defending the 3 (28%).
So. Wendall Moore (G/F, 6800) is a guy we talked up in the pre-season. He got up 11 shots in 26 mins of action. I do like him for the price, but he’ll have to do it against one of the B1G’s best defenders making him a bit risky. Matthew Hurt (F, 6000) is no sure thing either. I like his shot share thus far (24%), but as mentioned, matchup isn’t great. You can likely find safer options elsewhere.
Aaron Henry (F, 6700) has picked up where he left off last year and then some. He had 38DK in a terrific all-around game against ND. I really like his price point and will play him in cash lineups. Joey Hauser (F, 6400) has fit right into the offense; looks like he’s been there for 30 years. Matchup isn’t great, but they’ll need him. I like him in cash as well.
Predictably Foster Loyer (G, 5400) came back to Earth against ND, going 1-1 in 17 mins of action. I don’t see him staying in front of guys like DJ Steward so probably a safe fade. Josh Langford (G, 5200) has been easing back into things. We’re still in wait-n-see mode here though. The price is getting into much more reasonable territory, however.
I love Rocket Watts (G, 4400) tonight. He has been dealing with an ankle but got up 11 shots against ND. I think they’ll need his athleticism and take-over ability. Almost no risk and all reward with the price tag but keep an eye on his status.
Minutes are still spread thin as Izzo is trying to figure lineups out. Gabe Brown (F, 4000) and Malik Hall (F, 3800) are two guys whose length and athleticism could help the Spartans. Small price to pay to find out in what should be a high scoring game.
While Duke/Sparty is a hell of an undercard, the main event and last game on the slate is certainly the headliner. KU is a 4.5 favorite with a healthy over/under of 148. The last time these teams met in the Champions Classic in Indy was 2014 and 2/3s of team @cbb_dfs was in attendance. UK beat the Jayhawks by 32, which was also the number of beers this Jayhawk fan drank to numb the pain of that beatdown. I’m expecting a different result tonight…
The Wildcats are coming off a loss to Richmond. In that game, they out-rebounded the Spiders by 23, but turned the ball over 21 times and committed 24 fouls. Although these stats are eye-opening, it’s probably to be expected for a team starting 4 freshmen. The only non-freshmen starter Olivier Sarr (F, 7100) should be in line for a massive game. McCormack is nicked up for KU and Self will likely turn to a 5-guard lineup, meaning the 7-footer will spend a ton of time down low against 6’8 redshirt freshmen guard Jalen Wilson. Sarr should eat in this matchup.
BJ Boston (G, 7500) looks every bit of an NBA lottery pick, playing 88% of the minutes and taking 32% of the shots while on the floor. His usage and talent are elite, so he’s fully in play in all formats. Terrence Clark (G, 6000) and Devin Askew (G, (G, 4900) have found the college game a bit harder than Boston. Fortunately, both are priced appropriately, and should each play 30+ minutes, making them bet on talent options against a KU team that is better than their numbers suggest defensively (thanks Gonzaga).
Isaiah Jackson (F, 5400) is an absolute animal on the boards. His ankle wasn’t an issue against Richmond, so his number of minutes is the only real question mark here. If KU goes small, as they are expected, will Coach Cal combat that with length (Jackson) or go small with former Creighton guard Davion Mintz (G, 3800) getting more PT. Normally I’d be all over Jackson, but there is some risk depending on Calipari’s strategy tonight.
David McCormack (F, 6200) will make or break this game both in real life and potentially in DFS, as his production/minutes will directly impact both KU and UK lineups. Big Dave is the only KU big that can matchup with Sarr down low, but if he continues to struggle as a hyper-active big that that can’t slow the down the game mentally, KU will be forced to play a ton of 5-guard lineups tonight. Offensively, that isn’t an issue as they move the ball incredibly well with 5 guards and would be a matchup nightmare, but overall minutes and lineup structure is fully dependent on McCormack’s play.
Jalen Wilson (F, 5600) would be the primary beneficiary if KU goes small, as he could easily see 25+ minutes and offers scoring upside at a cheap price. 5-star freshmen Bryce Thompson (G, 4800) has looked good early this year as well. As long as he gets enough minutes, he’s a reasonable price saving option.
Ochai Agbaji (G, 7000) has the least uncertainty of the Jayhawks, as he’ll play 35+ minutes and should be one of the top scoring options for KU. Christian Braun (G, 7600) is grossly overpriced, which is too bad because he’s a heck of a player. The 6’6 guard is way more athletic than people give him credit and he’s an elite shooter, but UK’s length and athleticism is quite a bit different than the St. Joe’s defense he buried for 55 DK points last game out.
Marcus Garrett (G, 8200) was non-existent offensively against St. Joe’s and hasn’t soaked up much usage on the year, but he’s squarely in play as a potential defensive player of the year against a young UK team that just turned the ball over 21 times to St. Joe’s. He’s defensive upside and ability to fill the stat sheet give him upside as a volatile, low owned tourney option.
This should be a hell of a nightcap and hopefully one of our Bucketheads will be $25,000 richer after this game ends. Best of luck tonight!!
Prize Picks – 12/1/20
Collin Gillespie
VILLANOVA
With a Number of 30.1 in what should be a big Wildcat win, I just don’t see Nova getting or needing this kind of output from their senior leader.
– Joe
Marcus Zegarowski
CREIGHTON
Got up 15 shots against North Dakota St but 2-11 from three. He should get right against Omaha and cruise past 28.6.
– James
Charles Bassey
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Louisville will be without Malik Williams and maybe Samuell Williamson, so Bassey and his 31% usage, top 40 rebounding, and top 10 block rates should smash.
-Byrd