Welcome back Bucketheads!! Hope you all had a great holiday weekend and enjoyed some college basketball as well. It felt weird for your boys @cbb_dfs to write content and do a few pods for the Wednesday slate and then take some time off, but we are a family first operation here. Given the hours we spend throughout the year on our non-income producing second job, family time over the holiday’s is and will remain a priority for the three of us. Thankfully for everyone, family time is over and it’s back to what we really love….and that’s college basketball DFS and our Bucketheads!! Let’s win that $10k for 1st place tonight on DraftKings and nail another round of over/unders for PrizePicks!!
We kick our Monday slate off with a cross-conference showdown in Uncasville, CT between former Big East foes. Gone are the days when John Bagley and Chris Mullin were chucking up heat-checks however. Instead, we have two teams trying to find themselves on the steep climb back to relevancy. Boston College is coming off a nice win against Rhode Island while this is the first Power 5 test for the Johnnies. The Red Storm are #9 in tempo currently. Vegas likes a tight game.
The big news for the Johnnies is the return of Julian Champagnie (G/F, 7200). Assuming he’s good to go, I love him in cash games as his rebounding and defensive prowess should give him a nice high floor. With last year’s ball hogs out of the way, I look for him to improve on his 19% shot share as well.
Freshman Posh Alexander (G, 7000) has been playing way above his 3-star rating in two games this season. Alexander has logged 30 mpg, replacing injured Rasheem Dunn (G, 6400). He’s averaging 28DK, largely due to his skills as a defender (8 steals). In his first real test, I’m fading the high price tag however.
JUCO transfer Vince Cole (G/F, 6600) is off to a hot start. While the competition steps up for him too, I love that he’s getting 13 shots a game up (29% shot share). In an expected close game, he’s a nice gamble in GPP. Josh Roberts (F, 5000) and Marcellus Earlington (G/F, 6000) are battling for minutes. Roberts drew the start last game and is $1000 cheaper. I don’t mind Jr Greg Williams (G, 5300) as a cheaper, veteran play.
Jay Heath (G, 7300) missed the last game after posting 28DK on 14 shots against Nova. He’s a solid play in both formats. You can also play Wynston Tabbs (G, 6500). He got off to a sluggish start against a tough Nova team then rebounded nicely for 31.5DK in 35 mins against Rhode Island. I love him in this up-tempo matchup. I hope he shoots it every time.
Steffon Mitchell (F, 8500) is a proven guy, and while his minutes are there (37mpg), his production could be better. He’s a fine cash play but you can probably find a more attractive GPP play on the slate. Makai Ashton-Langford (G, 5100), Rich Kelly (G, 4300) and CJ Felder (F, 4500) are the other major contributors with the former being the only one to really flash so far.
The Tar Heels bring their team of hot-shots to the Blue Ridge Mountains of Asheville, NC to do battle against the Runnin’ Rebs. The Rebs took a convincing L already to Montana St last Wednesday, so UNC is expected to be a heavy favorite. This should be another high scoring game with plenty of DFS options.
So. Anthony Harris (G, 6800) is still recovering from a torn ACL going back to last season. Even though he’s only played 5 collegiate games, it’s assumed he’s the de facto starting 2, thus the high price tag. Keep an eye on his status. Freshman RJ Davis (G, 5500) started against College of Charleston instead, and logged 19.5DK in 27 minutes. You could even look at Andrew Platek (G, 4600) who snagged 22DK in 21 minutes as price saver in the event Harris is still out. If Harris does play, then X out this whole paragraph on your computer screen.
I’m done writing about Leaky Black (G/F, 5300), just refer to the archive. That brings us to the vaunted front court. Garrison Brooks (F, 9200) is sky high. Brooks got off to a slow start (23DK in 28 mins). While he finished last season strong, it does make you wonder if the upgrade in talent will eat into his production. Armando Bacot (F, 6500) feels like a value as does Day’Ron Sharpe (F, 5900) who had a coming out party with 13 and 10 in 22 mins.
UNLV gave up 55% from 3 against Montana St. That bodes well for stud Fr PG Caleb Love (G, 8000) who didn’t shoot particularly well last game. His 26.6% usage, 28% assist rate, 2 steals, and ability to get to the line gives him a very nice floor regardless.
Bryce Hamilton (G/F, 6700) picked up where he left off last season, essentially being the whole team on offense. In 39 mins, he snatched 27 points, 8 boards, and 4 assists on 35% usage and shot share. While the competition ramps up significantly, you have to love everything about this matchup for the price. He should be highly owned in all formats.
UNLV plays a thin bench which is nice for us. Iowa St transfer Caleb Grill (G, 3900) logged 34 minutes in his first game, making him an outstanding value if that holds up. Nicquel Blake (G, 4800) could also provide some value. He was able to get 7 shots up in 23 minutes of action for 29DK. Same for David Jenkins (G, 4700), transfer from South Dakota St. The high volume shooter got up 9 shots, but only converted 2. The other 2 players that should see the remaining minutes are dart throws.
Johnny Dawkins isn’t messing around with his non-con this year. The Knights season opens tonight against Auburn, followed by trips to Michigan, Houston and Florida State all of whom are currently in KenPom’s top 25. This may be the best option for UCF to get an early win and Vegas has them as a slight -1 point favorite. Auburn sits at 1-1 after a tight win over St. Joe’s and a lopsided loss to Gonzaga. They have averaged 81.5 points in their first few games so I’ll be eyeing the over at 141.5.
With no games to pull any data from UCF is a bit of a mystery. DK has no player over 6k so there is value here. I have my eyes on a few transfers in the backcourt to provide an immediate impact. Darius Perry (G, 5400) comes over as a grad transfer from Louisville. Last season he started 26 games and shot 38% from 3. CJ Walker (F, 4800) is another name you may recall. The Oregon transfer was rated the #19 recruit coming out of HS in 2020 and received his waiver to play just 6-days ago. He goes 6-8 and is very athletic.
As for some returnees for the Knights, Darin Green Jr. (G, 5800) can really shoot it, while Brandon Mahan (G, 5600) is a senior that can play multiple wing positions and fill a stat sheet.
For Auburn, Allen Flanigan (G, 7700) leads the team in scoring (16.5) and minutes played (32.0) through two games. Justin Powell (G,5900) is adding 12 ppg to go with 6.5 rebounds. Jaylin Williams (F, 7000) is also pulling down 6.5 boards and is coming off an 18 and 11 double-double. Finally, Devan Cambridge (G, 5700) leads the Tiger is usage and shot rate over the first two, but hasn’t shot it well. He’s a worthy GPP option.
Mississippi State is 0-2 while Texas State has started 2-0. The good news is we have 4 games of data to pull from when completing our analysis. The bad news is, this game is like a 1940s beauty contests, and it has the lowest over/under on the slate at 137.5.
With losses to Clemson and Liberty at a neutral site, Ben Howland will be happy to return home. Mississippi State saw a ton of change over from last season and the new faces haven’t really clicked out of the gate. Hopefully sleeping in their own beds and shooting in their own gym will speed up this process.
Thus far the Bulldogs have been the DJ Stewart (G, 7100) show. He has a gaudy 32% usage and 36% shot rate. At that price he is viable in all formats. Tolu Smith (F, 8100) is more expensive, but brings rebounding upside. The sophomore has made a tremendous leap this offseason it seems.
The Bulldogs aren’t playing a deep bench with both Deivon Smith (G, 6100) and Cameron Matthews (G/F, 5000) logging close to 30 mpg. Abdul Ado (F, 6100) rounds out the starting 5, but in GPP I’d prefer forwards Jalen Johnson (4600) or Javian Davis (4200), as they each get 20 minutes to Ado’s 25 and have more offensive upside.
Texas State’s lead guard is Mason Harrell (6200). He is a solid stat stuffer that should be safe in cash. Harrell is also the only player who has minutes you can rely on. Early in the season all 12 Eagles have played at least 8 minutes per game. All things considered I am not going to recommend another Eagle, but if you are feeling like gambling note that Alonzo Sule (F, 3900) is not shy about getting shots up, and Shelby Adams (G, 5200) can get hot from deep.
Overall, I’m avoiding this game as much as possible, but will have some DJ Stewart exposure on DraftKings and on Prize Picks too! DJ’s line is set at 26.1 and I like the over. Don’t forget to use promo code CBBDFS if you sign up! #Ad
The Maui Invitational is coming from beautiful Asheville, NC this year. 2020 continues to be weird. Quick side note, we got some delicious ice cream sandwiches from Sunshine Sammies in Asheville this summer, so highly recommend if you are ever in the area.
The over/under is sitting right around 150 and it’s expected to be a tight game. Bama played at a top 5 tempo last season and played lightning fast in their opener. Stanford was a top 10 defense last year and played at a middling tempo. As the last game on the slate, we’ll definitely want some exposure here.
The Cardinal return 74% of their scoring and bring in star freshmen Ziaire Williams (F, 7500), a 6’8 do it all stud. There is always a bit of uncertainty when playing freshmen, but Ziaire is an elite talent in a pace up game, so he’s certainly viable in GPPs. Williams will play on the ball, including some PG, as well as off the ball and offers a lot of versatility to this offense. Oscar da Silva (F, 8800) averaged almost 16 points and 5.7 boards last season with 27% usage. Bama also gave up 20 offensive rebounds to Jacksonville State in game 1, which helps da Silva’s upside. I expect him to be a low owned, contrarian GPP option given his high price tag.
Daejon Davis (G, 6600) returns for his senior year after averaging just short of 9 ppg and 4 assists per game. He’s a lockdown defender who will play 30+ minutes. His matchup with Quinerly will have a huge impact on the real life results of this game, but I’d expect sub-20% usage again this season which hurts his upside. Bryce Wills (G, 4900) and Spencer Jones (F, 5100) are the other two returning starters and will likely play 25+ minutes, but neither really flash upside. Wills has been a horrible shooter in his career, while Jones relies on the outside shot for his scoring, but both are sub-20% usage players as well. It’s really a 2 man show offensively with da Silva and Williams, with DD as the likely 3rd lead scoring and leading assist man this year.
Kira Lewis’ 25% usage and 27% assist rate is gone, but Nova transfer Jahvon Quinerly (G, 6900) will take over at PG. He was an elite recruit at Nova and had a fantastic game in the opener. With so many great offensive weapons around him, the mighty Quin should be a great DFS option all season.
I’m a bit shocked that Jaden Shackleford’s (G, 7500) usage was only 25% last year because it seemed like he shot the ball every possession I watched. Shackleford and John Petty (G, 7800) took the most field goal attempts in game 1 and I’d expect that again in game 2. Both are fairly priced given the Tide’s offensive pace and shot share. That said, Herb Jones (F, 6500) is my favorite Bama option as a double-double threat and key defensive assignment against the stud frosh Williams. He gets overlooked with the flash around him, but Jones will bring his lunch box and hard hat with him night in and night out.
Jordan Bruner (F, 6200) started in the opener, but had some foul issues. He’s a former Ivy League first teamer, but at this price point I’d rather spend $300 more for Jones. James Rojas (F, 5200) was the biggest beneficiary of Bruner’s foul trouble while Alex Reese (F, 4700) appeared to be the odd man out in the front court after starting 26 games last year. I’d expect a rotation of these 3 all season, making it hard to invest until one of them separates themselves a bit. JUCO import Keon Ellis (G, 4000) is heralded as a dead eye shooter and someone to keep an eye on as the season progresses but would only be a desperation play in game 2 of the year. Overall, this should be an intriguing game to finish the slate Monday. No one should have a case of the Monday’s tonight!!!
Mike McGuirl
KANSAS STATE
This might be the only time you see the word “over” associated with K-State this season, but 90% minutes and 28% shot share make the OVER 26.0 appealing.
– Byrd
Sandro Mamukelashvili
SETON HALL
The Georgian sensation had a double-double in the Pirate opener, and as expected, the offense ran through him. Sandro goes OVER 33.3 tonight.
– Joe
Bryce Hamilton
UNLV
34% shot share last season, already exceeding that. Should easily get OVER 30.7 in the up-tempo matchup versus North Carolina.
– James