We are back baby!! As of this writing we have 10 games that will be tipping off at 5pm CST officially kicking off our CBB DFS season. Your boys @cbb_dfs couldn’t be more excited to start our third year off sharing with our Bucketheads the best daily fantasy insight and analysis found anywhere!
James, Byrd, and Joe started as just 3 guys and a twitter handle in 2018. Yesterday we finished a podcast with Sports Illustrated before recording our own pod announcing a fun new partnership with Prize Picks for the 2020-2021 season. For those of you who have been with us from the start, welcome back! For those new to the brand, #LFG. Here we like to win all the money!
The formula is simple. Follow @cbb_dfs on twitter. Click on links to content Monday through Friday to get write-ups on every game from the featured slate. Saturday’s find our pod in the morning (subscribe, like, listen, review). Pick apart the plays you like and get into DraftKings big Saturday Shootaround contest. Win all the money.
Now – let’s get into the Wednesday slate. We previewed the CBB 100K Season Tip Off on our podcast, but if you are looking for written content it is all below. Little different layout this year, but the content remains the same. Season opening slates can be very volatile with rotations not set, freshmen untested under the lights, and no overseas trips or secret scrimmages to analyze. At first glance most players are overpriced or underpriced and very few feel about right. We get into all of that below. Remember, we aren’t here to give you an 8-man roster. We are here to equip you with all the data and analysis enabling you to create your best line-up. It feels so good to be back!
Have a great and safe Thanksgiving bucketheads! We will be off written content over the holiday but when Monday comes our written content will drop every weekday. Regular pods on Friday night for the larger Saturday Morning tournaments. From that point on – Ain’t nothing gonna break our stride, nobody gonna slow us down, oh no.
Unless you’re a Liberty fan, Purdue fan, or COVID-19, you’re probably not interested in this game. Purdue was ranked #333 in adjusted tempo last season per KenPom and the Flames, #352, one spot ahead of the slowest team on Earth, Virginia. In what is expected to also be a blowout, we’ll focus primarily on the favorite in this neutral site affair.
The big news for Purdue is the absence of Eric Hunter Jr. (G, 7400), who is dealing with a leg injury and expected to miss the first month. The safe backup play is likely So. Isaiah Thompson (G, 5400) who logged 18 mpg in the backcourt last season. The more adventurous (read: awesomer) play is freshman Jaden Ivey (G, 4800). He’s 6’4, can score at all 3 levels, and has impressed in practice, scoring 22 points in a recent scrimmage.
You’ll pay a premium for Trevion Williams (F, 9200). Normally I’d say hit the smash button against an undersized opponent, but he is coming off a recent hip pointer injury so it’s hard to say if he’ll exceed 20 minutes which he’d likely have to do to meet value. Still, the matchup is juicy and worth a shot in GPP lineups.
Sharpshooter Sasha Stefanovic (F, 7000) is an auto-muck on the road where he shoots 19% worse from 3 than at home. Luckily he’s in front of the home cr…err seats tonight. The price is hefty for a shooter but could be some rebound upside as well. Returning Jr Aaron Wheeler (F, 5700) could see extended action. If you want to get really weird, play 7’3 290lb C Zach Edey (F, 3000). If the game gets out of hand, Painter may want to get some reps in for the giant.
For the Flames, your options are way more limited. They lost 3 starters from their 4-loss team last season. 5’9 Darius McGhee (G, 5200) and Elijah Cuffee (G/F, 4900) each logged 32 mpg last year but were not the primary scoring options (15% usage). If you want to take a wild ride in this one, pick up Henderson St transfer Chris Parker (G, 3000). He’s their only proven playmaker and could be heavily utilized against an inexperienced Boilermaker backcourt.
In one of the more lopsided games on the slate Kentucky will take on Morehead State in Lexington. KenPom has UK with a 26 point advantage over the Eagles. This will be our first look at the Wildcats’ latest group of freshman phenoms as well as some impact transfers looking to make their mark on Rupp Arena.
Until we get a taste of what Coach Calipari’s rotations looks like Kentucky could be a bit of a guessing game. That being said, UK is projected for 83 total points (2nd highest of the slate) so we want some exposure here.
5-star frosh studs Terrence Clarke (G, 6900), Brandon Boston Jr. (G, 7200), and Devin Askew (G, 7900) should each log heavy minutes as the team replaces all 5 starters from last year’s team. Askew will run the point which should create higher usage which explains the price gap. Boston and Clarke are top 10 talents that I would consider in GPP only.
Olivier Sarr (F, 7800) and Davion Mintz (G, 4500) are two transfers to pay close attention to. Sarr should dominate this game in the paint. In games where he played more than 25 minutes last year at Wake, Sarr averaged 16.2 and 10.7 (34.82 DK points) making him safe for cash line-ups. Mintz on the other hand is more of a GPP play as we don’t know how Cal will use him just yet. Mintz has loads of experience from his days at Creighton and is the college version of a 3-and-D guy.
Morehead State’s pre-season rank is #318 in KenPom (Kentucky is #12). They don’t have a player over 5k and lost their top two scorers from a year ago. James Baker Jr. (F, 4600) is a senior who is likely to lead the team in scoring this year, but hasn’t really contributed ancillary stats. The Eagles had two freshman last year who could take a huge step in their sophomore campaigns. The first is 6-8 center Tyzhaun Claude (F, 4400) who averaged 11.1 and 6.4 and should be a lock for 5x. The other is Ta’lon Cooper (G, 4600) who improved as the season went on, averaging 23 fppg when he played 28 or more minutes.
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State
UPDATE: Per Jon Rothstein tweet on Wednesay morning, Drew Lowder is eligible to play tonight. Averaged 14 ppg at Holy Cross, so he’s in play at $3800, especially in cash.
With so much hype around the some of the other high profile B1G teams, and the departure of two of the all-time great Spartans, it feels like Michigan St is getting slept on a little bit. With a stud recruit here, a solid transfer there, a couple Sophomore jumps, and the return of a budding star, Izzo’s squad could quickly be back among the thick of things in the most competitive conference in the country. Sparty beat Eastern Michigan by 53 a year ago.
Aaron Henry (F, 7400) finished strong last season which is why he was recently added to the Naismith Watch List. He’s capable of filling up the stat sheet which makes him cash game target, and even a solid GPP play at that price. Another player to target in GPP is Joey Hauser (F, 6600). It remains to be seen how he’ll fit into this Sparty team, but he’s an ideal fit for Izzo’s pick ‘n pop offense and has some rebounding upside as well.
Rocket Watts (G, 8400) wants to pick up where he left off last year, averaging 18 ppg over his last 4. He should lead the team in shot share this season, but he’s probably still more of a GPP play until we see him expand his game beyond buckets-getting. Josh Langford (G, 7500) returns after back-to-back season ending injuries. No clue what to expect from him, but I might be willing to pay to find out. I’ve been high on Malik Hall (F, 4700) since he came in last season and like him as a flyer.
Stud Holy Cross transfer Drew Lowder (G, 3800) is out unfortunately. That leaves EMU’s best player last season, Ty Groce (F, 4500) to carry the load. He only had 9 points in last season’s game however (the Eagles’ leading scorer), so expecting much more in this game might be a reach.
Bucketheads will get a glimpse of Coach Roy Williams’s highest rated recruiting class since he’s been in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels bring in 2 5-star Centers to accompany their already loaded front court. The also bring in a 5-star PG from the Lou, and three 4-star wings to round out the class. No 5-star recruits for the Cougars, however, get ‘em next year.
Garrison Brooks (F, 9300) and Armando Bacot (F, 6900) should be a gross mismatch for the small Charleston front court. The only concern I have is Roy spreading minutes around, especially as this game could get out of hand. Day’Ron Sharpe (F, 5100) and Walker Kessler (F, 4300) are two of the aforementioned freshman studs that could steal time. Even at the high price, Brooks should see enough time at the 4 to hit and could exceed if CofC can keep it close. Sharpe might be a solid value as he seems the more ready of the two freshman bigs.
I foresee heavy usage numbers for Caleb Love (G, 8300) at some point. He’s probably more Coby White than Cole Anthony and may take a few games to settle into the role. He’s fine for GPP but may want to take a “wait and see” approach for cash. His Freshman running mate, RJ Davis (G, 6400) was also a prolific scorer in high school. He’s quick, crafty, and should see some run. Leaky Black (G/F, 6300) is the less exciting, more sensible play though. Perhaps he learned how to shoot over the summer…
Brevin Golloway (G, 4500) is Charleston’s best player. He averaged 11 ppg last season, and with Grant Riller gone, that leaves a gaping 34% usage hole to fill. Payton Willis (G, 4000) you might remember from Minnesota. He scored double figures in 5 B1G games and could knock down some shots. Brenden Tucker (G, 3200) spelled Riller last season. Coach Earl Grant says he’s the fastest, most athletic player he’s ever coached, so maybe a good spot to showcase here.
I’ll be honest. I haven’t watched a lot of Vaqueros basketball; however, my 8th grade Spanish award tells me that means “cowboys.” I still have the trophy if anyone wants proof. What I like about the Cowboys is they like to play fast (66th in tempo last year) and they hate playing defense. They are projected to finish in the 230s on Kenpom, so this should be a blowout win for the Longhorns. I would also like to give a quick shout out to Shaka Smart, who is going with an elite distraction tactic this year:
UTRGV’s top 2 usage players were seniors last season, but at least Javon Levi (G, 6200) returns at PG. He had the #1 assist rate in the nation last season and was the WAC Defensive POY, averaging 11.5 points, 7.9 assists, and 2.4 steals. As a freshman, Quinton Johnson (G, 4000) had 23% usage last year while only playing about half the minutes but expect playing time to rise quite a bit in year 2. Chris Freeman (G, 3400) should start at SF if you are desperado. No me gusta la Vaqueros front line, as it appears to be a hodgepodge of la caca.
Texas brings back everyone, added a 5-star stud center, and clearly has connections at DraftKings, as their pricing is bonkers. Matthew Coleman III (G, 9100) is the 3rd highest priced player on the slate. That’s a hard no. Jericho Sims at 8900? No chance.
UTRGV gave up 38% from deep last year, so I can at least stomach guard Courtney Ramey at $7600. I’m excited to watch elite big man Greg Brown (F, 8000), so he’s a potential contrarian option on the slate, given his high price tag and blowout risk. The best priced option for the Longhorns is clearly Andrew Jones (G, 6200). After beating leukemia, dominating an overmatched Spanish Cowboy team shouldn’t be an issue. Overall, this is just horrible pricing on the Longhorns so I’m going to search for value elsewhere.
Clemson and Mississippi State hook up in an ACC-SEC match-up to kick off the season in Melbourne, Florida. While both teams are projected to finish near the bottom of their respective conferences, the game line is tight and not without DFS value. Kenpom currently has the Tigers a 4-point favorite with the over under around 138.
Clemson will again be anchored by Aamir Simms (F, 9000) but at that price I am not interested. At 9k he’ll need 36 DK to hit value and he did that only 6 times last year and 3 of those were games that went in to OT. If I am looking at a Clemson guy, give me Al-Amir Dawes (G, 5500) who started every game as a freshman and was second on the team behind Simms in usage. John Newman III (G, 6200) will play 30 minutes.
Mississippi State will look a lot different with no Reggie Perry, Robert Woodard, or Weatherspoons on their roster. Starksville is high on freshman Jalen Johnson (F, 7200) but I doubt he or Abdul Ado (F, 6100) are capable of replacing Perry’s presence out of the gate. Deivon Smith (G, 6400) is another freshman who I am in wait and see mode on.
Slightly more proven options in the backcourt include DJ Stewart (5900) and Iverson Molinar (4500). Both are entering their sophomore years and show flashes of potential in supplementary roles to Woodard and Nick Weatherspoon a year ago, so the opportunity is there.
UCLA @ San Diego State
UCLA will be a really good team this year in real life, but they’ll be hard to watch from a DFS perspective. They went 7-2 to close the year last season, but only broke 70 points twice in those 9 games. They’ll bring their 325th tempo in the nation to sunny San Diego to face an Aztec team that was top 10 defensively and 332nd in adjusted tempo in 2019-2020. This has all the makings for an ugly rock fight to close out the evening.
All world PG Malachi Flynn is gone for SDSU, which is too bad. He was a joy to watch. Matt Mitchell (F, 7300) should be the primary option offensively. He’s a versatile scorer, but his upside is limited in this matchup. Two-time All-Big West PG Terrell Gomez (G, 6000) will try to replace Flynn at PG. He’s an elite shooter who averaged almost 20 ppg while shooting 94.8% from the FT line last year. We’ll see how the 5’8 guard does as he steps up in competition, but he should get a ton of playing time for the Aztecs this season. Nathan Mensah (F, 6000) missed quite a bit of time with a health issue last season, but the 6’10 center is healthy this year and has flashed some upside in the past. Jordan Shackel (G, 5600) should increase his sub-20% usage from last season and Aguek Arop (F, 3400) is a decent punt play as a potential starter or at minimum, key rotation player that is long, versatile, and can rebound.
UCLA brings back almost everyone, so they are going to compete for a Pac-12 title and will certainly be dancing come March. Chris Smith (F, 7300) looks like a pro and no reason to think he won’t increase last year’s 25% usage rates and 13 points/5 boards per game. He’s fairly priced tonight. Tygar Campbell (G, 6800) flashed some upside last year, but mostly against defensively inept teams like Arizona St. and Utah. Jalen Hill (F, 5800) played slightly more minutes last year than Cody Riley (F, 4500) which makes sense given his rebounding and blocking upside that aligns with Mick Cronin’s style. However, Riley’s offensive usage make him a better bet for 4x.
If forced to play a Bruin tonight, it would be Jaime Jacquez, Jr (G, 5500). The 6’6 sophomore played over 30 minutes in 4 straight games to end the year, scoring 20+ DK points in 3 of those 4. Even though this game isn’t the most exciting from a DFS perspective, we are just thankful college basketball season is back. We’ve missed you Bucketheads and cannot wait to help you win all the money this season!!
South Dakota State is the favorite to win the Summit and return all 5 starters this year. They finished 119th in KenPom’s ratings last year and are projected at 98th this season. While they were incredibly efficient offensively (4th effective FG%) last year, they really struggled defensively. For WVU, Bob Huggins has already stated this is his best roster since he went to a Final 4 in 2010, which is saying a lot considering his squad has finished in the top 12 on kenpom.com 5 of the last 6 seasons. Although WVU was one of my favorite Vegas future bets a few weeks ago, I expect this game to be closer than the double digit odds Vegas suggests.
The Jackrabbits run a 3 out, 2 in motion offense centered around post men Douglas Wilson (F, 6400) and Matt Dentlinger (F, 6000). Wilson had 28% usage last season as their primary option, averaging 18.6 and 6.4 boards, while Matt dented opponents to the tune of 12.2 ppg/6 rpg. It’s a small sample size, but Wilson did foul out vs USC and Indiana last season and had 4 fouls against Arizona, so WVU’s size could create higher than normal foul risk. Sophomore Noah Friedel (G, 4800) will look to build on a promising freshmen campaign after averaging 12 points per game, including 28.7 ppg over his last 3. 6’4 guard Alex Arians (G, 4500) took over PG duties last season and should play 35+ minutes, giving him solid punt appeal.
While SDSU does have decent size in their starting lineup, they don’t have grown ass men like Oscar Tshiebwe (F,8100) and Derek Culver (F, 7700). While both have low 20s usage, they are elite rebounders and shot blockers, making them legit double-double options. I expect a big bump in production from sophomore Miles McBride (G, 6800). The Jackrabbits averaged almost 20 turnovers a game vs. high majors last year, which bodes well for McBride’s steal upside. I’d expect him to hover around 4x all season.
The Mountaineers played the 5th most bench minutes last season and I fully expect that again this year, so the rest are high risk punts. Taz Sherman (G, 3800) probably has the best shot, but keep an eye on Kedrian Johnson’s (G, 3000) role as the season progresses, as he could be an x-factor off the bench. This was a quality game to add to the slate after losing Baylor, Arizona St, and Tennessee, so kudos to DraftKings for turning lemons into lemonade.
This game is expected to be a fairly tight, high scoring affair in the ATL, which is what we like! Georgia State was ranked #19 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom last season. Tech likes to play paced up as well and returns a veteran backcourt.
The Yellow Jackets’ three-headed monster, Jose Alvarado (G, 8500), Michael Devoe (G, 8000), and Moses Wright (F, 7900) could all hit 4x tonight with the expected pace and minutes this game should achieve. All 3 exceeded 24% shot share last season. If I had to pick one for GPP, I’d go with Wright, who should have some nice rebounding and block upside.
Another Tech-er to look at is Jordan Usher (G/F, 5900). He’s got some rebounding upside as well and should see a minute increase this season. He had double-digit points in all but 2 games in which he exceeded 30 minutes last season.
For the Panthers, one player you need to have on your radar whether GPP or cash is Kane Williams (G, 6100). He’s Georgia St’s best player, leading the team in usage (26%) and assist rate (26%) last season. He scored 33DK or above in his last 5 games, easily hitting value at this price point. Tech is good defensively, but without the shot blocking presence of Banks, they are more vulnerable inside.
Also, in a paced up game, you can look at Corey Allen (G, 4900) in GPP. He lead the Panthers in shot share least year at 28%, chucking a 193 3-pointers. For a bit safer play, look at Justin Roberts (G, 5100). He’s not as shot dependent but will be on the floor as much as the other two. In a game that’s projected to be close and high scoring, why not take the value?
One of the @CBB_DFS picks to cut down the nets in March opens their season on this slate as Villanova takes on Boston College in a Big East-ACC clash. Vegas has the Wildcats as -15 point favorites with the over/under at a DFS friendly 146.5.
To be honest, I like BC to stay within the line. Nova is not real deep right now as they are dealing with a few injuries on their bench. Conversely, Boston College is healthy at the moment. Something that wasn’t the case a year ago.
Due to the injuries, the Eagles and finished the season losing 13-of-17. Prior to that they were 9-6 with a 3-1 ACC mark. The team boasts one of the ACC’s best backcourts assuming Wynston Tabbs (G, 7800) is near 100% and Jay Heath (G, 6000) continues his stellar play from his freshman campaign. They also have a stat-stuffer down low in Steffon Mitchell (F, 7500) who can physically stand up to Villanova’s Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 8600).
JRE is a monster in the paint for the Cats, but there are better options for the price on this slate. Same can be said for heart and soul of the team Collin Gillespie (G, 8700), unfortunately. Staying with the slightly overpriced theme, Byrd’s go-to in 2019-20 was Jermaine Samuels (F, 7000), but we were hoping he would come in closer to 6k. All three are probably okay for cash given their allotment of minutes, but not really GPP targets.
Give me Justin Moore (G, 6100) in tournament from Jay Wright’s team. Bryan Antoine (G, 4200) is already out so there isn’t competition at the 2-guard spot. Cole Swider (F, 5300) is intriguing as well. He is expected to take the starting spot vacated by new Detroit Piston Saddiq Bey. Swider can really shoot it and at 6-9 gets good looks. Finally I’d expect Brandon Slater (F, 3700) to be a punt option as Dahmir Cosby-Roundtree (F, 4000) will also miss this one.
Utah State @ Wichita State
Utah State orginially slated to play Wichita State, however the Shockers withdrew postponing this game. I guess we can let this be a friendly reminder to stay safe this Thanksgiving and just soak in all the CBB goodness!
Eastern Washington @ Oregon
As we discussed on the Sports Illustrated Fantasy and Gambling podcast today, we really like the potential for Oregon this year. We also hit on Jacob Davison as a value play with the potential to smash. Unfortunately, this game wasn’t meant to be. However, your boys @cbb_dfs are going to remain positive. We know there will be hours of written content with glorious DFS heat that won’t get used due to cancellations, but some college basketball is better than no college basketball. We are going to stay positive and be thankful for the games we do get. Most of all, we are thankful for you Bucketheads. Happy holidays and best wishes to you all!!
Hey Bucketheads. Reminder we are partnering with @PrizePicks this year. Click on the link below or use promo code CBBDFS and receive 100% instant deposit match up to $100. We’ll include our favorite @PrizePicks plays in our written content and pods this season!! Below are the picks for the opening tip! https://prizepicks.com/welcome?invite_code=CBBDFS
David Duke
Providence
My longshot pick Big East Player of the Year. Love this do it all guard all season long and it starts out of the gate! Over 27.1
– Joe
Franz Wagner
Michigan
With the departure of Zavier Simpson (25% usage) and Jon Teske (23%) Wagner is 1st up to take on the bigger load. Over 28.1
– James
Cartier Diarra
Virginia Tech
UPDATE: With Jalen Cone out, this isn’t as attractive as it once was….
Now at V-Tech, Diarra is in a crowded backcourt where he will fight for minutes. I like the under here. Under 27.4
– Byrd