This post is our 120th since starting the website and we want to thank every one of our Bucketheads who come every weekday for our content. We try to be informative and fun as we navigate through DK slates both good and bad.
Tonight lies somewhere in between. We have a 7-gamer that tips off at 5:30 CST. Point totals for these game range from 128 to 151 so expect a lot of color in the accordion blocks below. Ayo Dosunmu from Illinois is the season’s first $10,000 player so if you are in to committing 1/5th of your bank roll to a guy with 40-burgers in 5-of-6 games this year, have at it! We’ll do our best to find value to surround him with.
Fading Ayo? Maybe looking at Marcus Carr from the other bench who is a season low 8K? Well we’ll have some nice mid-tier plays throughout our written content, you can believe that.
On a professional note, @CBB_DFS and cbb-dfs.com remains free of charge. This is a labor of love for Byrd, James and myself. After a long discussion with the team, and at the request from a few of our most loyal followers, we have added a donation page to the site. If you are so inclined, we are humbled by any gift.
Undefeated Clemson heads to Blacksburg to take on the Hokies. Tech wants to erase the memory of a complete whooping from Penn St in the B1G/ACC Challenge. Clemson is legit good, picking up wins against Purdue, Maryland, and Alabama already in the young season. They’ve been doing it with defense, ranked #2 in Defensive Efficiency according to KenPom. The Hokies already play slow as molasses (#343), so expect a low possession affair. We’ll hit on the high notes.
6’9 Keve Aluma (F, 7000) followed Coach Young from Wofford when he accepted the Virginia Tech job. The departure of break-out star Landers Nolley to Memphis opened up a spot at the 5 which Aluma was able to fill. He has 29% usage, 28% shot share, and is the team’s leading rebounder. He’s hit 5x in 2 of last 4. Would be nice to see him get 30+ minutes like he did against Nova, so consistency isn’t there yet but a nicely priced GPP option on this slate.
Going to drop down the price list a bit to highlight Jalen Cone (G, 4100). The talented sophomore was hurt the first three games but had a nice performance in 20 mins against PSU. He scored 15 or more points 6 times last season in limited duty. His role and minutes should continue to increase. Even in a bad matchup, 5x is very attainable.
Young likes to spread minutes out unfortunately, and with Cone’s return as well as Hunter Catoor (G, 3300), it gets muddier. Tyrece Radford (G, 6000) is getting the most (by far). He doesn’t always need shots to fall but recent form not great. He’s priced down a bit so you can play him in GPP. Justyn Mutts (F, 4600) had a catastrophic game against PSU but he’s shown a high ceiling already (6x vs Nova), so he’s in play in GPP. None of the Tech shooters are appealing in this matchup.
The Tigers aren’t super appealing either from a DFS standpoint, even though they’ve been an outstanding real basketball team. Aamir Simms (F, 7800) is priced up and coming off a bad game versus Bama. I don’t love the matchup as Aluma is solid defensively. I do think you can give the Clemson shooters a small bump as Tech isn’t great at defending the 3 (37%). Al-Amir Dawes (G, 5900) and Nick Honor (G, 5500) are the most prolific shooters on the squad. Honor is by far the better shooter so far at 36% and leading team in shot share at 26%. I’d favor him in GPP.
O’l Clyde Trapp (G, 4400) is a steady-Eddie and should be able to grind out a 4x. John Newman (G, 4600) has seen a steady increase in minutes and price reduction making him an attractive GPP play in spite of recent form.
Undefeated Minnesota travels to Champaign to take on #13 Illinois. Illinois has had a rocky start to the season. Following a loss to Baylor, they won at Cameron, forcing Coach K to quit on his team again, then took a brutal L to Missouri in Columbia in the Braggin Rights game. The Gophers’ best opponent to this point was Boston College. Illinois should have an advantage on the boards. Both teams like to score quickly on offense, so could be a decent number of possessions in this one.
The big news here is the price of Ayo Dosunmu (G, 10000). He’s been incredible, no question, but the matchup isn’t necessarily favorable. He only had 13 against them last season, and they’ve since added an elite shot blocker. Hard to say fade a guy who has been as consistently productive as Ayo against tough competition, but we have to draw the line somewhere. For instance, there’s one guy playing in this game that could easily outpace Ayo and is $2000 cheaper.
Against high-major competition, Kofi Cockburn (F, 7500) is underperforming his current price by a significant margin. Turnovers and poor foul shooting have really hurt his ceiling. I think he can snap out of it but would like to see his price come down first.
Andre Curbelo (G, 5400) has seen increasing playing time and trust from Coach Underwood. He’s at peak price after a 30DK (6x) outing. In spite of some turnovers, the eye test says he’s the second best player right now behind Dosunmu. The freshman will naturally be up and down but price is still strong for GPP. I don’t mind the Illinois shooters in this one, Trent Frazier (G, 5100) and Adam Miller (G/F, 4900) in GPP.
We touted Drake transfer, Liam Robbins (F, 8700) in our preseason content, and it didn’t take long for the 7-footer to show-out. He’s a little overpriced in his DK debut, coming off a 50DK effort against UMKC. So, we don’t blame bucketheads for taking a wait-n-see approach, especially in a tough matchup. He has the size, the tools, and the opportunity for massive production however, making him a viable GPP option on any night.
Marcus Carr (G, 8000) is not only a safer option but a really attractive option in GPP especially. As mentioned, for $2000 less than Ayo, you get a guy with a proven 40-50DK ceiling and triple-double potential, at the same usage and shot share. Tough road matchup, but Illinois has had a lot of trouble against opposing lead guards so far, could be a smash spot for Carr.
Illinois has guarded the 3 pretty well this season (28%), so that might limit Both Gach (G/F, 6900), transfer from Utah. He’s efficient but shot share isn’t great (18%). He’s always live in GPP, but I’m looking elsewhere at the price. Keep an eye on Brandon Johnson (F, 4500). He’s been out with an ankle. Isiah Ihnen (F, 4700) has gone 4x/5x filling in for Johnson.
So I guess if you are reading this you are a really a fan of our writing, or live in Tulsa, OK or Wichita, KS. Fact is the over-under here is a dismal 132.5. These teams like to play defense and don’t play with much tempo. Somehow 4 players are over $6800. I’ll touch on them, but with an initial disclaimer that we are probably fading this game.
Tyson Etienne (G, 7700) is averaging almost 20 real points per game for the Shockers. He gets up a ton of threes, but is very scoring dependent in a game that won’t have a lot of scoring. Alterique Gilbert (G, 6800), the UConn transfer, starts at the point and produces ancillary stats while leading the team in usage. I definitely prefer Gilbert if you HAVE to play someone from the Shockers – or even from this game.
No one on the Shockers has had a double digit rebounding game yet this year, so all their forwards are out for me. Dexter Dennis (G/F, 5800) logs heavy minutes and manages to do very little with them. If I had a coupon for $1000 off I wouldn’t use it on Dennis.
This Tulsa section isn’t going to turn this into a cheery write up. Like the Shockers their DK outlook favors the perimeter and the perimeter is just two guys. Elijah Joiner (G, 7100) is a strong rebounding wing, but not very offensively inclined. Brandon Rachal (G/F, 6800) leads the team in shot rate and has 24% usage.
Making me even angrier is the fact that Darien Jackson (G, 6100) is priced where he is. I’d put money on Darius Rucker having a bigger impact in DFS a line-up tonight. I can’t even find a deep cut I like in this one.
Georgia Tech and Florida State open ACC play tonight in Tallahassee. The Seminoles are -8 point favorites and the over-under is a defensive minded 138. FSU has started the season 3-0 and ranks #15 in the latest top 25 poll. Georgia Tech has rebounded nicely from an 0-2 start with wins over Kentucky and Nebraska.
The key to GT’s turnaround has been ball control, whereas FSU thrives on creating turnovers. If the Yellow Jackets can take care of the rock, they can make this a game. Jose Alvarado (G, 7500) and Michael Devoe (G, 6700) will be the primary ball handlers given this task. The senior guards are also the primary perimeter threats for this team. Both are priced fairly. Devoe probably has more GPP upside.
Tech is 304th in bench minutes, so their starters are the targets. Bubba Parham (G, 5600) and Jordan Usher (G/F, 6100) play the 2 and 4. I prefer Usher of the two. Moses Wright (F, 9300) is the highest priced forward on the slate. He opened the season with a 64 burger and has been good since then, just not 9300 good. I have a hard time paying for him against FSU’s length.
As mentioned on our YouTube video last Saturday, Florida State is the longest team in the nation. No starter is under 6-5 and no reserve is under 6-4. Balsa Koprivica (F, 6000) is the biggest of them all at 7-1 and will get to check Wright to start the game. The Serbian is capped around 20 minutes though and despite high usage (29%) and shot rate (32%) he’s hard to trust.
Someone who is not hard to trust is Scottie Barnes (G/F, 6700) who is just scratching the surface on what this fabulous freshman can do. Play him now before he gets up to 8k. The rest of the Seminoles are fine cash plays, but I wouldn’t stack more than one more with Barnes. MJ Walker (G, 6200) is their leading scorer, but is scoring dependent. Raiquan Gray (F, 6600) is their most consistent post player and Anthony Polite (G, 5800) is as steady as they come. If I was reaching for a price saver, Malik Osborne (F, 4400) is worth a look. He doesn’t do much offensively, but can rebound and rack up blocks and steals if Tech gets sloppy. He would also see a minutes bump if Wright gives Koprivica fits or foul trouble.
A couple bottom feeders of the Big 12 face off in Ames. Iowa St. is a 7.5 point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Kansas St. is bad in real life and worse in DFS, as they currently sit 348th in tempo. Iowa St. is in the low 200s in tempo as well, so I’d recommend looking elsewhere for DFS heat.
Mike McGuirl (G, 6900) is playing the most minutes and has the highest shot share on the team. He might get you 4x, but he has no upside, like the rest of his teammates. Nigel Pack (G, 6400) is their second-best player and another 4x option, but again, no upside either. Montavious Murphy and Kaosi Ezeagu are both out, so 7’ freshman Davion Bradford (F, 5500) should see plenty of minutes. He flashed 5x against Milwaukee last game out but carries risk in his first road game of his career. Another freshman, Selton Miguel (G, 4700) has played increase minutes lately, partly because of DaJuan Gordon’s (G, 5300) foul trouble.
Hard to believe, but a normally tough defense in K-State has given up 75+ points in 4 of 6 games this season. Rasir Bolton (G, 8200) has at least 34 DK in all 3 games this season, giving him a nice floor at home against a young, struggling defense. Javon Johnson (F, 7100) is priced up $2k since his 40 burger but hasn’t exceeded 25 DK in his other 2 games. You can find better value at this price point.
Jalen Coleman-Lands (G, 6500) is like Byrd in high school. He’s going to take a ton of shots behind the arc and play limited to no defense. He’s a scoring dependent option, which caps him as a 4x option. Solomon Young (F, 5300) has played 30 minutes in the last 2 games, so he has GPP upside at this price despite some inconsistent results YTD. Tyler Harris (G, 4800) is going to play 30 minutes as well and provides another potential 4x option. There isn’t much upside to be found in this game and with other heaters on the slate, its buyer beware here.
Alabama is a DFS friendly team in style only right now. The Tide’s rotations are a mess, especially in the post, and their elite shooters have been colder that Heatmisers brother!
Still, Nate Oats team is running at the 9th fastest tempo in the nation and taking 47% of their FG attempts from 3, so what is not to like? Maybe a game against the Furman Paladins will help? Vegas has Bama a -5 point favorite and the over/under is a slate-high 151.5.
The aforementioned shooters are priced to play, given I put out the disclaimer on their current form. Jaden Shackelford (G, 6600) and John Petty Jr (G, 7200) are both capable of hitting 4x in points alone. Jahvon Quinnerly (G, 6300) hasn’t had the impact coming over from Nova that was expected but he logs heavy minutes and leads the team in usage as their primary distributor.
One of our favorite plays is typically Herb Jones (G/F, 7600), but since he has been the most consistent Tide player his price is the only one that has climbed this season. At this price I’d save the money and go down to Shackelford or Petty. After Jones the post has been a mess, with no one stepping up to take over the 5 spot. I am fading the forwards altogether but will continue to watch and wait for one to emerge.
Furman is no slouch, ranking 67th on KenPom. Their 5-1 mark may be a little inflated with 3 wins over D2 teams, but today we’ll find out what they are made of. The Paladins are lead by junior guard Mike Bothwell (7400) and junior forward Noah Gurley (7300). Both have usage rates over 24% and shot rates over 26%. In a game with pace, both are in play.
Clay Mounce (F, 6500) has a funny last name, but a decent DFS game. If he gets the ball it is going up as evident by his 29% shot rate. He’s been cold from deep on the season (26%), but dropped 23 real points on Cincinnati a week ago. Other Furman players that should make noise are Jalen Slawson (F, 6300) and Alex Hunter (G, 6200). The Paladins are 293rd in bench minutes, so there isn’t a reason to go much further past the starting five.
In summation we have two teams fairly priced by DraftKings and a scorching over/under set by Vegas. Bama needs to heat up and Furman needs to prove they are the real deal. Hit the bricks Snow Miser, we need your brother for this one!
Life hasn’t been a beach for The Beach this year, giving up 107 to San Francisco and 85 to Loyola Marymount. LBS plays at a top 20 tempo and clearly is atrocious defensively. There is some blowout risk as a 23-point home favorite, but hard not to get some exposure to the Bruins here.
I don’t see anything that shows Isaiah Washington (G, 7000) as out. He’s a transfer from Minnesota and their best overall player. It’s not a great spot on the road at his price, but I do believe he’s playing. Michael Carter (G, 6100) has minuscule ancillary production, so he’s not an option at this price point. Joe Hampton (G, 4500) took 12 shots and had 3 steals last game if you are looking for a desperation punt play.
Hard to not like Tygar Campbell (G, 7300), who will have the ball in his hands in a pace up spot at home. He’s got top 40 assist rates and despite limited offensive usage last game, he feels like a high floor play. Chris Smith (G, 7400) continues to be aggravating, but this is a smash spot for a future NBA player that can do a bit of everything.
Speaking of do everything, that’s exactly what Jaime Jacquez, Jr. (G/F, 7000) does for UCLA. He’s finished with 30+ DK in half the games this year, including double digit scoring in 5 of 6, along with plenty of ancillary production. Jalen Hill (F, 6900) and Cody Riley (F, 5100) continue to have a time share down low, making Hill too costly and Riley a GPP option only.
Jules Bernard (G, 6000) is another tourney option only giving his high variance game to game, but when he’s not turning the ball over he’s a heck of a talent. Finally, Johnny Juzang (G, 4900) got 27 minutes in his 2nd game as a Bruin and although he hasn’t done much yet, his UK pedigree is enticing against an overmatched Long Beach squad. We definitely want some exposure to UCLA tonight, but unfortunately, their balanced approach and legit blowout risk make it hard to predict who will smash. Trust your gut, Bucketheads and win all the money!!
PrizePicks – 12/15
John Fulkerson
Tennessee
We are 1-0 on Fulkerson this year and like his chances to go OVER 24.5 points tonight. He’s coming off a double-double vs. Cincy and has the team’s highest usage and rebounding rates.
– Byrd
Justin Powell
Auburn
Texas Southern giving up over half of opponents’ FGAs from 3 at 35%. Powell shooting 16-33 (53%) from deep, coming off back to back 26 point games, I like him to stay hot and go OVER 29.8
– James
Moses Wright
Georgia Tech
Wright has been a beast this year, but against the length of FSU he will get his toughest task to date. I think he can’t part the Red Sea this time and finishes UNDER 36.4.
– Joe