Well Bucketheads, with no games tomorrow this will be our last piece until after Christmas. We encourage everyone who reads us to make sure to enjoy time with their families during this special time of year. We look forward to the conference play that lies ahead and continuing this red-hot ride to the 2020-21 season.
Before we head to holiday celebrations, we’ve got some money to win tonight. We have a 6-game slate (now reduced to 5) with a $5,000 grand prize to the winner. Our slate tips at 5:00 CST with Providence and Butler. The slate concludes with an odd match-up between the Leathernecks of Western Illinois taking on team COVID out of Chicago (DePaul). In between there is some B1G action and a marquee Big East tilt. Unfortunately, Georgia Tech’s 74th appearance on a DK slate this year has been cancelled due to COVID issues at UAB.
For those write-ups and everything else scroll down and enjoy your research! Have a Merry Christmas, Bucketheads! This is the season of giving, and we are giving you some winners below.
The first tip of our final slate before a mini Christmas break features Providence heading to Butler in a Big East tilt. The Friars are -1.5 point favorites and the over/under is 137.5. Providence has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series and are coming off a thrilling overtime win at Seton Hall to open conference play. Butler has dropped 3 straight games, and the status of point guard Aaron Thompson (6900) remains questionable. Thompson is the Bulldogs leading scorer and primary ball handler. His price is down 500 due to the injury, and would be an appealing option if given the all clear.
Without Thompson Butler has turned to youth. The wins haven’t come, but valuable experience has. Freshman guards Chuck Harris (6400) and Myles Tate (4400) each played 30+ minutes last game and would be in line for similar production. Tate has been the biggest benefactor of the absence going near 5x in his last two.
If you want more proven production move on to Jair Bolden (G/F, 7400). He is the teams main scoring option with Thompson out. Bryce Nze (F, 6800) and Bryce Golden (F, 5000) are also in play, but prefer Golden at 1800 less. Nze’s price is up 1500 after just one good game against Southern Illinois from the Missouri Valley.
I would be doing a disservice if I didn’t mention two other Butler freshman in the front court that are getting a little run right now. JaKobe Coles (3400) and Myles Wilmoth (3200) are near minimum price and have flashed at different times this year. They are GPP punts only, but Coles had 18 DK against Indiana and Wilmoth has played at least 19 minutes in every game this season.
David Duke (G, 7900) has been amazing for Providence this year. My pre-season pick for Big East POY boasts a 28.3% usage rate and shot share, both tops on the team. Butler’s defense has struggled to start the season, so no need shy away from Duke here. Nate Watson (F, 7600) has been Duke’s complimentary piece down low, and his 27% usage and shot share is nothing to balk at either. When Watson is motivated to rebound, he can break slates. Cautious players should find 300 to pay for Duke, while the gamblers will fire on Watson tonight.
Providence doesn’t go that deep into their bench and their remaining starters are all reasonably priced. Jared Bynum (G, 5600) is an elite assist man and doesn’t come off the floor much. AJ Reeves (G, 4900) is the teams sharp shooter, however he hasn’t been so sharp of late (7-32 from 3). Finally, Greg Gantt (F, 4800) is an excellent defender, plays all the minutes, but not involved much offensively.
Illinois travels to University Park in what figures to be an up-and-down game. Each team is expected to get into the 70s and should be a fairly tight game throughout. Illinois has the same blueprint they had last year on defense, playing more of a pack-line, not generating many turnovers. Illinois has had a tough time defending the high ball screen this season however, which has led to a lot of interior buckets and/or free throws for opponents. The Nittany Lions have fared much worse defending the interior with the departure of Stevens and Watkins, giving up 52% from 2. Look for Illinois bigs to go to work.
Ayo Dosunmu (G, 9500) has gone 5x 5-times this season at that price. If he can cut his turnovers, his ceiling would be even higher. He’s pretty matchup impervious at this point, especially if the game is competitive which this should be. I think you can look at him in all formats.
Kofi Cockburn (F, 8000) could be in the feature spot tonight. Coach Underwood sent a stern message to refs this week about how the big man is being officiated. Couple that with the lack of interior presence for the Nittany Lions, it could open opportunity for big Kof to eat all night. You can also pivot down to Giorgi Bezhanishvili (F, 4100) as he will have a similar advantage.
Andre Curbelo (G, 5400) really struggled with fouls last game. He will be up and down all season and eventually teams will play off of him, forcing him to shoot. I think he still has a decent floor for cash at that price though. Trent Frazier (G, 4700) got more aggressive shooting last game which will need to continue for Illinois to have success. I like him again but use caution. Adam Miller (G/F, 4000) had an abysmal game against Rutgers as he’s struggling to transition to conference play. His talent and shooting ability aren’t in question. I actually really like him in GPP tonight.
Izaiah Brockington (G/F, 6600) has been the bell-cow the last two games, taking 14 shots each game and grabbing a few boards. Tough matchup, but worth a shot in tournaments if he continues that trend.
When it comes to usage and shot share, two players stand out on Penn St, Myreon Jones (G, 6100) and Samuel Sessoms (G, 5700), at 28% and 26% respectively. Neither has shown much of a ceiling so far, but with the pace of this game, you can safely throw them into cash lineups. Illinois has struggled containing PGs this season, so you can even toss Sessoms into a tournament lineup as well.
Seth Lundy (F, 5900) has flashed a couple games this season, which seems to be his MO. I guess, based on that, you should consider him in GPP but recent form not good. John Harrar (F, 4600) has a tall task but is averaging close to 5x at home.
It’s been an up and down start to the year for Marquette. After just one win in their last 4 games, they sit at 5-4. However, they can boast two of the best wins any team has achieved this year with victories over Wisconsin and Creighton. Tonight, they look to add #5 Villanova to their list of top 10 teams they have knocked off. Vegas has Nova -4 and the over/under is 142.5.
When Marquette is good, they are really good. DJ Carton (G, 6500) leads the show and has gone over 4x this price in 3-of-4. Koby McEwen (G, 6200) compliments him in the backcourt and provides a second perimeter threat (44% from deep). Also around this price range is Dawson Garcia (F, 6300). The freshman is long and skilled and has the team’s highest shot share at 25.6%. I like all three at their price point in cash and GPP.
The other forwards on the roster can be a little harder to predict. Theo John (5500) brings foul risk, but is a bully down low. Jamal Cain (5700) is a GPP only option, and Justin Lewis (5000) is an effort guy who has seen increased playing time of late. Backcourt depth is cheaper, but probably less reliable. Greg Elliott (3800) really can’t be considered with the return of Symir Torrence (3400). Torrence was the starting PG before being usurped by Carton. He also missed three games with a toe injury but made his return on Sunday (12 min, 5.3 DK). One would have to assume his minutes will increase as he works his way back.
Villanova is awesome, and the same team essentially as last year, so no major surprises in their breakdown coming. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 8100) is coming off a 47.1 DK game last time out, but he’ll draw the focus of Theo John, which will be a tougher task than Jabroni Center from St. Joe’s. Collin Gillespie (G, 7800) is a tad overpriced. He has only gone 4x this price point three times this year, but he is a gamer and this one could be close. Justin Moore (G, 7500) is at a career high price point as he has added opportunistic rebounding to his stat sheet this season. He’s okay in cash, Gillespie more suited for GPP.
Caleb Daniels (G/F, 6000) plays a ton of minutes and averages 13 points per game. He’s been a nice surprise for this team. Jermaine Samuels (F, 5600) is the ultimate cash play and has yet to have a big one this year so he has a little GPP upside too. Final Wildcats I want to mention are Cole Swider (F, 4300) who is a 3 point specialist coming off the bench and Eric Dixon (F, 3600) who I have been watching like a hawk this season. He racks up a ton of fantasy points per minute, but minutes are not always there. He has gotten 15 in back to back games.
This should be one of the more fun games on this slate. I’ll be watching and will surely have some exposure. Give me Nova and the over, but I expect it to be tight until Gillespie pulls the Cats out in the end.
There was some DFS heat in this one, but life goes on. Suck it COVID-19.
The Wildcats are coming off an impressive and surprising win over Michigan St on Sunday. They’ll travel to Bloomington to take on a Hoosier team that is trying to extend their two game win streak. Northwestern is similar to Illinois defensively, in that they won’t overplay and get steals/blocks but pack it in and force tough, contested shots, holding teams to 26%/40% 3P/2P. Indiana has also been good defensively (#8 KenPom). They’ll try to lock up the Wildcats’ perimeter attack.
Trayce Jackson-Davis (F, 9000) is definitely the 3rd best player in the league and might be second by season’s end. This is a tougher matchup, and he’s priced at an all-time high, so not a gimme, but I can’t see him missing in cash lineups, 4x seems like the floor.
Armaan Franklin (G, 6300) has seen a steady increase in price this season to match his increasing production. He’s the de facto second option on this team, so I think you can keep rolling him out there until it mathematically stops making sense. Race Thompson (F, 6100) has a couple 40 DK games under his belt this season, oddly those have occurred away from home. He’s not a bad option for GPP as he should get 30+ minutes but game script and pace may work against him.
Keep an eye out for Joey Brunk (F, 3000). If it sounds like he’s ready to go finally, he would be a must play at that price. The rest of the Hoosiers are darts in what should be a fairly low-scoring affair.
Boo Buie (G, 7200) has been the engine for the Wildcats this season. He’s coming off 6x vs Sparty and has been at 4x in every other game. Shot share has steadily increased which is a good sign. Not a great matchup, but he should have the ball plenty.
Pete Nance (F, 7000) should have some rebounding upside tonight which will give him a solid floor. I don’t see him hitting 5x at that price like he did against the Spartans, but he should have cash value. Chase Audige (G, 5800) might be a sneaky good play. In spite of a foul ridden outing against Michigan St, he’s leading the team in usage and shot share (31%/35%) which is rare to see at that price point. I like him in tournament play.
Ty Berry (G, 4800) is getting to 5x in all 4 games he’s had 19 or more minutes and has a 25% shot share. He’s a solid pivot off of Audige.
I went ahead and wrote up the UAB game last night because, of my games, this one felt much riskier in terms of COVID issues. After all, DePaul will be the last Power 6 team to make its 2020-2021 debut this season. About an hour after my UAB content was complete, they cancelled that game….
However, the show must go on and hopefully this game actually happens. It’s got a juicy 148.5 over under with the Blue Demons as a heavy 16-point home favorite. There have been no updates to substantiate this yet, but heavy rumors that both Jaylen Butz (F, 6400) and Romeo Weems (F, 6900) will not play tonight. Obviously, we’ll do our best to confirm those before tip, but there is a bit of uncertainty with this late-night hammer option. Fortunately for our Bucketheads, I’ve got a lot of experience making questionable late-night decisions, so let’s dive in!!
I took a college visit to Macomb, IL out of high school as I tried to figure out my next steps in my baseball career and my much less important academic career. There isn’t much going on in Macomb, so you may want to check that off your list of vacation spots. There isn’t much going on defensively for the Leathernecks either, as they currently rank 337th defensively. They also play fast, which is what we want in our DFS options.
Tamell Pearson (F, 6200), Justin Brookens (G, 5200), and Will Carius (F, 7300) all average double digits scoring, while Rod Johnson, Jr. (F, 5300) is averaging over 9 ppg. Brookens burst onto the scene of late, scoring 13, 37, and 15 real points, including 30+ minutes in his last 2 games since entering the starting lineup. He has the highest usage on the team at a discounted price but hasn’t fallen into a steal or block all season. We’ll have to keep an eye on Marcus Watson’s (G, 3900) status. The former Wake Forest signee decided to follow Nick Irvin to WIU instead of heading to the ACC and is their normal starting PG, but he missed last game which is part of the increased minutes for Brookens.
WIU is also sitting at 7% minutes continuity, one of the lowest in the nation. For perspective, the national average for minutes continuity is currently at 47%, per kenpom.com. Carius gets up around double-digit shots per game and has some rebounding, steal, and block upside. His mid-$7k price point isn’t the sexiest, but he has 4x in his range of outcomes. 6’10 Pearson is the team’s best rebounder and shot blocker. He’s been efficient scoring the basketball inside, which is good because he’s a horrible FT shooter (35% from the line so far). If your name is Rod, you’re automatically Hot Rod, right? Hot Rod Johnson has been a stable force for the Leathernecks, sitting right around 4x all season long, although his production has slowly declined each game. Someone check Hot Rod’s oil, as he might be a quart low.
As mentioned above, there is speculation DePaul’s 2nd best player Romeo Weems (F, 6900) won’t suit up tonight. That would likely mean even more usage for already ball-hoggy Charlie Moore (G, 8300), who had 26% usage and elite assist rates last season. The former Cal Bear turned Jayhawk turned Blue Demon is fully in play, especially in tournaments given his high ceiling and likely massive usage in a pace up game against a horrible defense. The only real concern is the rust of a team that’s barely practiced together this season.
Javon Freeman-Liberty (G, 7700) comes over from Valpo, where he put up gaudy stats (19 ppg, 6 boards). He had 32% shot share at Valpo and filled up the ancillary stats, including strong steal rates. Hard to know what his usage will be here at DePaul, but if Weems and Butz are out, hard not to think he’s option 1B behind Moore.
If Weems plays, he’s arguably the most talented player on the court and we’d like some exposure, especially on a team that lost DFS stud Paul Reed and shot share leader Jalen Coleman-Lands. Monmouth transfer Ray Salnave (G, 6000) is expected to have a solid role after averaging 15 ppg. last year, but there are already two mouths to feed in this backcourt, so I’d expect him to be the 3rd option on the perimeter.
We’ll get some sort of rotation between Pauly Paulcap (F, 4700), Nick Ongenda (F, 4000), and Darius Hall (F, 4200) down low. In a time share at center while at Manhattan, Paulcap had ridiculous metrics and given the lack of frontcourt options, I think he’s very viable as a cheap option tonight. Ongenda is raw, but in theory should make a big jump in year 2 and again, if DePaul is shorthanded, someone’s going to have to step up. Hall played the most returning minutes of the folks listed here as a SF/PF tweener and should be involved if DePaul is indeed short-handed. With all the uncertainty and the last game on the slate, you’ll have to take a bit of a leap of faith on these ancillary options outside of Moore and Freeman-Liberty. Best of luck tonight Bucketheads and more importantly, we are wishing you and your families a happy holiday!!
PrizePicks – 12/23
John Fulkerson
Tennessee
We are 2-0 on Fulkerson in PP, so let’s try it again. SC Upstate plays fast, gives up 58% to 2-point field goals, and isn’t a good rebounding team. OVER 25.0
-Byrd
Kofi Cockburn
Illinois
Has a significant size advantage against PSU front line. Called out by coach for effort recently which may light a fire. OVER 30.6
– James
Myreon Jones
Penn State
If Penn State wants to stay in this game, Myreon Jones will need to have a nice day. He’ll get up is shots, no question, but I think his ancillary stats will put him OVER the 23.8.
– Joe