Welcome to Pac-12 heat Bucketheads!! Tonight’s slate is like the CBB DFS staff in their 20s: lean and more attractive after you’ve had a few beers! The main event is a nice $15 entry with $20k going to first place. We have two true Pac-12 conference games, one partial, and one rando. As always, we’ll break down the matchups with pinpoint accuracy and expert gif selection. Be sure to scroll to the end to catch our PrizePicks selections as well. We’re 6 out of our last 6, let’s see if we can keep this heat-check going!
Utah was hit hard by COVID and just started practicing last Friday. West Coast Coach K has already said they’ll play a deep bench tonight because of the lack of practice/conditioning. Fortunately, they’ll face off with a Washington team that has looked flat out horrible this season. With an over/under in the mid-130s, let’s not go overboard on our exposure here.
The Huskies are averaging 46 points a game so far, including 42 against 183 ranked UC Riverside. Woof. Quade Green (G, 6400) rebounded after a horrible opener to drop 18-8-4 with 2 steals. The former UK guard is priced appropriately and has the pedigree to produce against a Utah team that generally doesn’t play much defense. Hameir Wright (F, 4600) has 5 steals and 3 blocks in the 2-3 zone through two games and has taken 12 3s, although he’s only made 1. Still, he’s going to play 30+ minutes and has enough usage to outperform his price. Wichita St. transfer Erik Stevenson (G, 5300) is going to play 30+ minutes and averaged 11.1 and 4.7 boards for the Shockers.
RaeQuan Battle (G, 4600), Nate Roberts (F, 5400), and Jamal Bey (G, 4400) make up the majority of the playing time. If it was Raekwon from Wu-Tang in a rap battle, I’d be all in, but from a DFS perspective I’ll hip hop off these guys tonight.
Rylan Jones (G, 7400) had a fantastic freshmen year, averaging 10 points and 4 assists. He’ll have the ball in his hands all game, but his price scares me a bit. Alfonso Plummer (G, 4900) showed some promise towards the end of last year, ending the season averaging 26.3 points, including 21 3s, over his final 3 games. Utah also brought in top 100 recruit Pelle Larson (G, 3400), who should play right away as well. The Swede filled up the stat sheet in FIBA U18s. Lack of practice time/games provides some uncertainty here, but both should play 20+ minutes.
Timmy Allen (F, 9000) is a player no one talks about, but he averaged 17 points and 7 boards a game last season. He’s an absolute stud, but we’d prefer his price about $1k lower. The Utes have a plethora of options down low with Riley Battin (F, 5600), Branden Carlson (F, 5100), and Mikael Jantunen (F, 5000). Carlson scored double digits in 8 of his last 13 Pac-12 games last year, so I give him a slight lean. Again, given the short practice time and deep bench usage, this is probably not the game we are looking to stack tonight.
Southern Cal has three games under their belt, has played progressively better competition, and have gotten progressively better in each game.
- Cal Baptist (288 in KP) – won by 8 in OT
- Montana (162) – won by 14
- BYU (88) – won by 26 on Tuesday
- Connecticut (53) – ???
UConn, on the other hand, steamrolled two low level in-state teams and is playing their first game out of their own gym tonight. Yet, the Huskies find themselves a -1 point favorite over the Trojans. USC moneyline time.
From a DFS perspective, the over/under is currently at 139, so I wouldn’t recommend stacking this game with multiple plays. One play I do like is James Bouknight (G, 8000) for the Huskies. He is my selection in PrizePicks to go over 26.1 total. On DraftKings he needs 32 fantasy points to hit 4x value. Given his usage (25%) and shot share (26%), I think he is a great cash play with GPP upside.
Isaiah Whaley (F, 7500) is a little too rich for me, but he is a high energy stat stuffer that will be needed against USC’s size. After him, the pricing dips to 5-6k for a quartet of guards in Tyrese Martin (5800), RJ Cole (5500), Jalen Gaffney (5200), and Brendan Adams (5000). Each has brought something different to the team with the exception of Adams (sorry Brendan). Martin is pulling down 10 boards a game, Gaffney playing the 2nd most minutes, and Cole is the 2nd leading scorer who will get up the 3s.
The opposing backcourt for USC features 3 playable guards with high floors, but limited ceilings. Tahj Eady (5900) and Ethan Anderson (4700) rarely come off the floor and are similarly skilled players. Drew Peterson (G, 6800) is listed as a guard, but the 6-8 junior has rebounding upside.
Where the Trojans should have an advantage tonight is in the paint with Evan (F, 7900) and Isaiah Mobley (F, 6700). Both bigs had double-doubles against BYU. Evan, the 7-0 little brother, is the team’s leading scorer and best shot blocker. Isaiah, the 240 pound bigger brother, leads the team in usage (27%) and shot rate (25%). Both have high GPP upside and should be heavily owned tonight. I know we here @CBBDFS we’re Mobley and Mobely – whoooooaaaaaa! Mobley and and Mobley!
Boston College is battle tested. This is their 4th game of the year all of which have been schools inside KenPom’s top 75. Florida, who is the better team on paper, has played one game and struggled for a large part of it yesterday versus Army. When the two teams square off tonight Florida is listed as a -6 point favorite and the over/under sits at 141.
The Eagles are 1-2 on the year, and it feels like they have been on about every DK slate we have had. The names haven’t changed but some of the production and statistics have. For example, Wynston Tabbs (G, 7200) is now sitting at 33% and a 34% usage and shot share. Clearly the offense is running through him and he has exceeded 31DK in his last two games. Down low Steffon Mitchell (F, 8100) has been the definition of steady, scoring 26-29 DK points in every game, but at his price that is under 4x so he is at best a cash game option.
Dropping down a tier, Boston College has four other players averaging double figures, but I am only considering Jay Heath (G, 6100) who takes a ton of threes. Rich Kelly (G, 4500) people may consider as a price saver, but if you are looking to save a buck, you should really be looking at Florida.
The stats from UF and Army’s game yesterday haven’t filtered into the DraftKings API. This obviously has impacted their pricing model as well so if it isn’t changed there are two glaring plays we can exploit.
First, Tre Mann (G, 4100) had 41 DK yesterday. That’s 10x. Mann starts at PG and put up 13-6-4 with 5 steals. Please note, Mann only played 21 minutes and won’t sustain 1.95 ppm, but still. At this price he’s a must play.
Second, Colin Castleton (F, 3200) is the Gators starting center. The Michigan transfer earned the starting job over Omar Payne (F, 4400) for now and had 20.5 DK in 25 minutes, just missing a double-double. Payne did get 18 minutes for what it is worth.
Value aside, Keyontae Johnson (F, 8500) is always a DFS stud and I like him tonight if you can spend the money. As for the other Gators, Scottie Lewis (G, 7300) is overpriced. We are still waiting for his offensive game to catch the rest of his ridiculous skill level. Noah Locke (G, 5400) is a sharp shooter and always a GPP threat. Tyree Appleby (G, 6600) is their first reserve off the bench. He had 15 in the opener, but playing close to 7k for a 6th man is not typically something I order off the menu.
The nightcap features one of our favorite teams in Arizona State, who is a 7.5 road favorite with a solid 146.5 over/under. The Sun Devils play fast and minimal defense, which is the perfect combination for DFS purposes. Cal is the exact opposite, relying on slow pace and defense to keep them in ball games. The Golden Bears are chucking a lot of 3s this season, so at least they do something fun.
Matt Bradley (G, 7700) is back after averaging 17.5 points and 5 boards per game last season. He’s had 30% usage so far and I expect that to continue. He had 22 real points against them last year and in a pace up game, he’s in play in all formats. Grant Anticevich (F, 7000) is off to a slow start in his senior campaign and at this price, he’s probably not viable, but he’ll be in play at some point this season.
Transfers Makale Foreman (G, 5700) and Ryan Betley (G/F, 5200) are both starting and playing roughly 70% of the minutes. Both are firing 3s from deep, but Foreman has higher shot share and assist rates, so I’d lean his direction if you are looking for a low-owned GPP option. Andre Kelly (F, 4700) is the Bears best rebounder and while he doesn’t have a ceiling, he could sniff 4x if you are desperado.
Alonzo Verge (G, 7100) is out due to contract tracing and that has a lot of downstream impacts. First, it gives 5-star stud Josh Christopher (G, 6500) a huge bump. Christopher has a 30% shot share while on the floor and has looked fantastic this season. He’ll be highly owned and for good reason. Remy Martin (G, 9200) is always a tourney option, but Cal will try to slow pace which lowers the ceiling on Martin. I’d expect a good game from him tonight, but it’s going to be hard for him to drop a slate smashing performance against Cal’s 318th tempo.
Marvin Bagley’s little bro Marcus Bagley (F, 6300) is off to a hot start to his freshmen season, dropping between 20-32 DK points so far. With Verge out, his usage should increase and he’s another strong mid-tier option on this slate. Kimani Lawrence (F, 4800) returned from a knee injury and played well in limited minutes. We’ll monitor his status, but if he can play 25+ minutes, he’s got a great shot at hitting value.
Jaelen House (G, 4800) is another direct benefactor of Verge missing time. He played 22 minutes last game and should see another 20 tonight against Cal but given his role he’s probably more of a 4x option. Taeshon Cherry (F, 4200) started in place of Verge, but he’ll rotate time with Jalen Graham (F, 3900) and a few others. Cherry and Graham are desperation option if you really need the salary relief, but I’d prefer to focus on the mid-range options if you can. Enjoy the Pac-12 heat Bucketheads!!
PrizePicks: 12/3/2020
Evan Mobley
USC
Going to go against the grain here a bit. UConn has been solid defensively thus far and technically the best offensive rebounding team in the country. UNDER 34.6 for the stud freshman.
– James
Wynston Tabbs
BOSTON COLLEGE
We know Florida is good defensively, but Tabbs ridiculous 30+% shot share and % of possessions is too hard to pass up. Give me the OVER 23.1.
– Byrd
James Bouknight
UCONN
Given his usage (25%) and shot share (26%), I think he is a great play tonight and should soar OVER the 26.1 points that PrizePicks has him at.
– Joe
NOTE: Prize picks will update their lines throughout the day and the selected O/U could change.