Friday tips off a little earlier than normal, in an effort to get us a 7-game slate full of high major competition. The first tip is at 3:30 when Seton Hall hosts St. John’s in what should be a DFS friendly match-up. The slate ends with Marquette headed to the left coast to take on UCLA, in a lower paced, but still fantasy relevant affair.
In between the open and close we have battles for Iowa and Nebraska. Nova will take on Georgetown in a Big East tilt and then, of course, the two odd ball games. Kansas in a smash spot hosting Omaha, and for some reason the DK guys decided to give us Appalachian State taking on the Charlotte 49ers.
Lets stay focused on the positives. It’s Friday, one day closer to Christmas and there is some pretty nice action here. Also, someone is going to win $20k by the end of the night and if you can read through our tea leaves it may be you!
Our slate opens up with a Big East matchup for St. John’s, bringing their faced paced team to Jersey to take on Seton Hall. The Red Storm are playing at the 10th fastest tempo this season which is pushing the over up to 152.5. The Pirates are a -7 point favorites.
Starting with the visitors, St. John’s should return Rasheem Dunn (G, 5400), who has cleared concussion protocols. Dunn is typically a DFS target, but in his absence Posh Alexander (G, 6400) has really emerged. I recommend fading both as we aren’t sure how the minutes will be split. This could impact other guards as well.
Julian Champagnie (G/F, 8400) will be just fine. St. John’s leading man has at least 33 DK in every game so he is as safe as they come in cash. With his 28% usage and 35% shot share GPP upside is there too. Vince Cole (G/F, 7100) would be considered a GPP only target. In 6 games he has DK outings of 41 and 40, but also 8 and 10. Hard to trust, but capable of 6x.
Jared Rhoden (G/F, 8200) has a similar boo-or-bust profile for Seton Hall. He had 35 and 43 DK in his last two, but prior to that has 18 and 20 – a killer when you pay over 8K on a guy. Given the tempo and number of possessions, I don’t hate Rhoden in GPP, just know you are playing with fire.
Sandro Mamukelashvili (F, 7600) is under priced. He was bad last time out, but wasn’t needed in a 33-point win. Prior to that 46, 29, 45, 31, 41 DK points or 6x, 4x, 6x, 4x, 5x. I will have a lot of Sandro ignoring his last game. During that bad outing 7-2 monster Ike Obiagu (F, 5500) smashed the slate and his new price reflects that. Stay away. He’ll be paced out of this game.
To wrap up the Hall it seems like Shavar Reynolds (G, 6700) has really taken the lead on perimeter. He’s had a steady 4x, 5x, 5x in his last 3. Finally, @CBB_DFS has to get in their weekly ‘Myles Cale (G/F, 4500) is a good value play’ line.
1-2 Charlotte hosts the Mountaineers of Appalachian St. We won’t spend a ton of time on this game since these teams are only projected to get into the low 60s. The 49ers are ranked #345 in Adj. Tempo according to KenPom, however they do have a short bench, so we’ll focus on the key contributors, cool?
So, Jahmir Young (G, 6800) and Sr. Jordan Shepherd (G, 6300) are the main guys for Charlotte. They lead the team in usage and shot share once again this season. Neither of these guys are overly-attractive at their price points, but either option is viable in GPP. Shepherd may have a little defensive upside.
Brice Williams (G/F, 5900) and Jhery Matos (G/F, 5200) are your wings, each getting around 30mpg. Matos might sound familiar as he transferred in from Dayton. Each is probably ok for cash but neither has shown much of a ceiling thus far in their careers. The Sr. big, Milos Supica (F, 4000) can board and get defensive stats but not playing a ton of minutes. The Mountaineers have been solid on the boards so Supica doesn’t excite me much even as a price saver.
Not sure what’s up with All-Sun Belt first teamer Justin Forrest (G, 4700). He led the team in points and assists last season, commanding a 33% shot/usage. Now he comes off the bench and usage has dropped to 21%. His role seems to have been usurped by Stony Brook transfer Michael Almonacy (G, 6600) who flashed for 6x two games ago vs Bowling Green. Almonacy seems to be the safer play here of the two in GPP lineups and the most stable play from a minutes standpoint of anyone on the team.
Kendall Lewis (F, 6500) also hit 6x recently. He leads the team in usage (33%) but only plays about 20mpg. You can take a shot with him and hope for more minutes. Similar situation for Donovan Gregory (G/F, 6200) and Adrian Delph (G, 5800). Delph is taking 29% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor which leads the team. At the lowest price, I might consider him in GPP if I’m dying to put a Mountaineer in my lineup (spoiler alert, I’m not).
The Jayhawks have a couple cupcake matchups before the Big 12 gauntlet begins: @ Texas Tech, WVU, and Texas. That will be a fun 3-game stretch with 4 of the 5 best teams in the Big 12. KU will look to take care of business at the Phog tonight as a hefty 24-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Blowout risk is high in this one Bucketheads.
The Mavericks play fast (54th in tempo), are inefficient on offense, and less than spectacular defensively. They gave up 94 to Creighton, who the Jayhawks just knocked off early this week. I’m expecting a similar number of points for the Jayhawks tonight, who probably won’t be receiving any Christmas cards from the city of Omaha this season.
If the opening paragraphs didn’t scare you off Omaha, they also plays the 10th most bench minutes in the nation. Barf. 6’8 center Matt Pile (F, 6300) is averaging almost a double-double, and while I expect him to rebound well, I don’t see him scoring much. The lesser-known Ayo, Ayo Akinwole (G, 5500) plays 75% of the minutes and is getting up 10 shots per game. He’s shooting 44% from 3 and the Jayhawks traditionally give up their fair share of 3-pointers, so he’s not horrible.
We are looking into Marlon Ruffin’s (G, 5000) status, but he plays 25 minutes and has 30+% usage while on the court, so he would be intriguing if his ankle can hold up. Wanjang Tut (F, 4300) should play 25 minutes down low and has decent usage, but I don’t expect positive regression on his 44% shooting from the field against the Jayhawks. If you want to play narrative street, Marco Smith (G, 3900) is from Kansas City and he had 4x at this price last game out and could get extra usage if Ruffin misses. On a decent sized slate, there is probably no reason to play anyone from Omaha, but we get paid per word here @cbb_dfs, so why not write 400+ on an irrelevant team on the slate.
Raise your hand if you had redshirt freshman Jalen Wilson (F, 8500) costing $300 more than Zegarowski in early December? When Self turned the 5-guard lineup halfway through the St. Joe’s game, business has picked up for the Jayhawks offensively. The bad news is KU’s starters will likely only play 25 minutes in what should be an easy win. I love Wilson’s game and impact, but I can’t pay that much for him in this environment. Ochai Agbaji (F, 7400) has sat right around 27 DK points all season, which wouldn’t quite be 4x. He’s an ok play but doesn’t stand out as a great value. Christian Braun (G/F, 7800) has three games over 30 DK points this season and Self really wants him to continue to look for his shot. He’s had less than 21 DK each game against inferior opponents, so I’d group him with Wilson and Agbaji as guys more likely to get you 25 DK than a smashburger.
Marcus Garrett (G, 6500) has really struggled this year. Sounds like he isn’t 100% due to an illness, to the point of having a hard time catching his breath during games. However, you are getting a guy that normally hovers around $8k price point in a pace up game against an inferior opponent. He’s in a classic buy low spot if you think he can regain his form. Big Dave McCormack (F, 6100) hasn’t made the leap Jayhawk fans expected this season, but he’ll have a massive size and talent advantage over Omaha. He isn’t going to play enough minutes to smash value, but he could get you 4x. If you think that KU wins easily, I really like Bryce Thompson (G, 4000). The 5-star recruit should get 20 minutes in this one and has a silky-smooth mid-range game, similar to my silky-smooth game with the ladies.
The Wildcats begin their quest for a Big East crown when they head to Georgetown tonight to take on a Hoya team that have light expectations for the year. Villanova is a -10.5 point favorite and the over under is an okay 141.
Patrick Ewing’s teams have always played Villanova pretty tough. Even in the disastrous 2019-2020 season they only had a 1-point loss to the Wildcats in the regular season finale. Jamorko Pickett (G/F, 7300) had 20 points in that one, and has the team’s second highest shot share this season. Jahvon Blair (G, 7700) has the highest shot share and usage on the team, but is dependent on the 3-ball for fantasy success. If you think G-town keeps it close, both are in play.
Down low Qudus Wahab (F, 6000) will have his hands full with JRE, but he brings a lot of block and rebounding upside. Chudier Bile (F, 5800) has increased his minutes in each game and is a bottomless pit when he gets the ball, so if you feel like playing someone you never heard of, he’s a nice GPP deep cut who will be less than 5% owned.
For Nova, prices are down. With the loss to VT and a hard fought win over defensive minded Texas, I suppose that should be expected. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 8100) is a great player, but lean cash games for him. Go-to glue guy Collin Gillespie (G, 7500) feels safe and should benefit from the additional pace.
Secondary players Justin Moore (G, 6200) and Jermaine Samuels (F, 5900) are priced appropriately. Moore can get hot from the perimeter and like Gillespie will be benefited by the pace. I know Byrd has been watching that Samuels price like a hawk, as he is a near lock for 4x and flashed 6x upside around this price point in the past.
If you are looking for value, at 4400 Cole Swider (F) and Caleb Daniels (G) should benefit from the extra possessions and game flow. Stretchier than those two would be Eric Dixon (F, 3200). If for some reason JRE gets into foul trouble or the game gets out of hand early he could eat. In 20 minutes two games ago Dixon had 16-10-3.
Nebraska and Creighton square off for state supremacy as both teams close their non-conference schedules Friday night. This game should be a lot of fun and very DFS friendly. Nebraska wants to run and Creighton is one of the more efficient offenses in the nation. The over under is 152 so this is a good game to stack here!
On the Nebraska side, Teddy Allen (G, 7000) is priced down $500 after a stinker versus Georgia Tech on Wednesday. At 7k he has gone 4x or more in every game prior to that and has GPP upside. Dalano Banton (G/F, 7900) is the highest priced Husker. The do it all wing has neared 40 DK in 4/5 games and had 28 in the one outlier. Like Allen, Banton extremely in play in all formats.
Trey McGowers (G, 5600) is playing 30 minutes and has been quiet lately. I like him at this price and in GPP. Lat Mayen (F, 5400) and Kobe Webster (F, 5300) are similarly priced, but I’d rather find a few hundred bucks and play Trey. Thorir Thorbjarnarson (G/F, 4300) is a cheap way to get exposure to this one, but I expect his ownership to be high given his price. Thorir plays around 25 minutes and does a bit of everything.
The Bluejays are favored by -14 which put their implied point total at 83 points. Marcus Zegarowski (G, 8300) has been steady this year and is safe in cash, but he’s coming off his toughest match-up of the season drawing Marcus Garrett of Kansas last time out. I feel a breakout could be coming so I am okay if he is in your GPPs.
The 2-5 positions can be tough to predict as there is a steady rotation position-versatile guys standing 6-4 to 6-7 that play solid minutes and are all offensively capable. My favorite of the group is probably Mitch Ballock (G, 6000) he’s been in the system four years and is a better shooter that his early season numbers. Christian Bishop (F, 6200) has had 5x in 2 of his last 3. Denzel Mahoney (G/F, 6100) was their best player against Kansas.
Damien Jefferson (F, 5000) and Antwann Jones (G, 4600) are cheaper options you can consider. Jefferson gets safe minutes and should score in double figures with a few boards. Jones, started the year hot, but the sophomore’s minutes have declined with each game. His usage and shot share when on the floor still remain high.
I mentioned stacking in the intro and what I like here is a couple Jays with your favorite Husker on the comeback. Zegarowski and Jefferson with Allen on the come back still keeps you pretty much on budget, while getting you 3 guys from one of the slates best games. What combination do you like? Stack away!
The showcase game on the slate is an intrastate rivalry matchup between the Hawkeyes and Cyclones. Iowa is fresh off a B1G/ACC Challenge win against UNC; knocking down 17 3s. Meanwhile Iowa St is trying to rebound from a home loss to South Dakota St. Hard to think, much like the UNC game, that this doesn’t cruise past the 156 o/u. The Hawkeyes dominated this matchup the last two years.
Luka Garza (F, 9900) is priced up slightly. The Tarheels’ bigs did manage to hold him to his lowest output this season (47.5DK), most of that coming in the second half. He had 40 DK last season in Ames, but with every bloody lip and hooking no-call, he’s simply unstoppable at home where his try-hard powers know no boundaries. Simply put, 5x seems a relative certainty.
As predicted, Joe Wieskamp (G/F, 6800) had a monster shooting night, 5-7 from 3 (40.75DK). While Jordan Bohannon (G, 5700) and CJ Frederick (G, 4800) are equally deadly shooters and priced cheaper, Wieskamp does give you a higher floor because he’s a good rebounder as well which makes him a good cash option. All 3 are viable in GPP however, but don’t expect all 3 to hit 5x+ like the last game.
I more or less hate Iowa (as an Illinois fan), but give me all the Jack Nunge (F, 5200). He’s down $1400 from his season debut, which was a bit underwhelming, but he got up 9 shots and proved he could be effective alongside Garza. Fran may elect to go smaller tonight, so some risk but he’ll be in my lineups. We’re basically best friends.
Former Nittany Lion, Rasir Bolton (G, 8000) is ISU’s best player somehow. He’s gone 4x in the first two games and has done it without shooting 100 times. His shot share is down 7% from last season, which is encouraging. It means he’s maintaining a high floor and still plenty of ceiling left once he remembers he’s the king alpha ball-hog. Right now, that title goes to former Blue Demon, former Illini (sigh), Jalen Coleman-Lands (G/F, 5700) who leads the team in shot share (26%). He still doesn’t do anything else, so total shot-dependent GPP play. That said, this game will have loads of possessions, and they should be down by a bunch.
Javan Johnson (F, 6700) and Solomon Young (F, 5300) will be popular plays. Young got up 17 shots in 30 mins vs South Dakota St, good for 6x. His price is down $500 which makes him a really attractive GPP play. And just plain attractive, let’s be real. Johnson had 40DK last game in the facilitator role. Memphis transfer, Tyler Harris (G, 4500) plays 30 mins and is cheap, but hasn’t done much yet.
For a flyer pick, give me Fr. Darlinstone Dunbar (G, 3600). He’s the #3 offensive rebounder in the nation (percentage-wise). That’s an area Iowa doesn’t defend well; perhaps he’ll get a little extra tick. At that price, a couple put-backs can get you almost home.
From a real-life perspective, this game is probably the headliner of the slate. UCLA is sitting at a 4.5-point favorite and an over/under of 139.5. From a DFS perspective, Mick Cronin’s 337th tempo really sucks the life out of any fantasy goodness. I’d expect a mid-60s slugfest similar to Marquette’s 67-65 win against Wisconsin last week.
Theo John (F, 7200) continues to get it done through rebounding and blocked shots. I’m not a Theo John guy from a DFS perspective and he had a full egg vs. Wisconsin in 24 foul-plagued minutes, but his price is down, and these are physical games he’s built for. Koby McEwen (G, 6900) plays the most minutes and has solid shot share/assist rates. He’s your classic boom or bust GPP option, but going against a slow paced, defensive minded UCLA team along with a price boost isn’t helping the cause.
We are fans of Dawson Garcia, (F, 6400) the talented lefty freshman. He’s going to play close to 30 minutes, he’s going to take double digit shots, and he’s going to rebound. He hasn’t done much from an ancillary stat perspective, but if he’s making shots, he will hit value. Jamal Cain (F, 5600) quietly does a bit of everything as the 4th offensive option. He’s shown a 5x ceiling so only the matchup is holding him back.
DJ Carton (G, 5200) should be a popular play despite a tough matchup. His talent far exceeds his price and UCLA has struggled against PGs this season. Freshman Justin Lewis (F, 4800) had been on a full heater before his struggles last game. He has the highest shot share on the team when he’s on the court and better rebounding rates than Theo John, but he only plays about 20 minutes per game. He went 4x/5x/6x before the dud against Wisconsin-GB, so he’s got the talent and body to bang against the big UCLA front line.
Chris Smith (G/F, 7200) is arguably the best NBA prospect on the court and UCLA is expected to score 70. You’d like to see a bit more alpha tendencies from Smith, but he’s a cash game staple that should get 4x+. Tygar Cambell (G, 7100) has top 40 assist rates nationally and the most field goal attempts on the team. He’s hovered between 4-6x over his last 4, so form is solid as well.
Jalen Hill (F, 7000) is an elite rebounder and double-double threat, although he hasn’t show slate smashing upside due to his limited playing time. Jamie Jacquez, Jr. (G/F, 6600) plays the most minutes and Cronin trusts him as a do it all hybrid, His production is all over the place from a DFS perspective and he’s priced up a bit, so he’s a tourney option only.
Cody Riley (F, 4900) is part of the timeshare with Jalen Hill, bringing more offensive firepower to the table. He’s a superior play to Hill when you consider the $2k price difference. Jules Bernard (G, 4600) is a really talented player, but he turns the ball over too much, keeping him in Cronin’s doghouse. Add in Juzang’s return to the court and unfortunately Jules is overpriced. Finally, UK transfer Johnny Juzang (G, 4300) made his UCLA debuted, scoring 10 points in 20 minutes against San Diego. He’ll bring more offensive firepower to this team. Hard to tell what his role will be in game 2 against a better opponent, but at least his price is reflective of the risk. Best of luck today Bucketheads!! Bring the heat and win all the money!!
PrizePicks – 12/10/20
Christian Bishop
Creighton
We love this game in general, but Bishop has only hit 30 fantasy points once this season, so give me the UNDER 28.8.
-Byrd
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Seton Hall
Paced up, Sandro has a nice match-up here and is in a good bounce back spot after a stinker last time out. I think Sandro goes OVER the 33.0.
-Joe
Marcus Zegarowski
Creighton
What Byrd said, but flipped… OVER 32.0
-James