Welcome back to another week, Bucketheads! We open the last full week before winter break with a nice 4-game slate. Rutgers and Maryland kick things off at 5:00 CST then we’ll have a small wait after until three more tip off at 8:00 (2) and 8:30.
Of the remaining three, Marquette and Creighton is the marquee match-up, but Pepperdine and UNLV should get up and down as well. Northern Colorado and Colorado make up the final game on the slate. The point total here is just 136, but CU has some familiar DFS names our Bucketheads like to play.
We got a great start to the week and it tips off at 5! Let’s win all the money, Fo’shizzle…
And just like that, we’re into conference play. Rutgers is undefeated so far, with a nice win over Syracuse, but this is their first game away from the RAC. Maryland just got thumped by Clemson, their first real test this season. Vegas expects the tightest of games. Both teams have solid efficiency numbers with Rutgers being top 20 on the defensive side and Maryland on the offensive side. Let’s dig into the data.
Ron Harper Jr (G/F, 8300) has settled into the alpha role finally. He’s playing the 30 mpg and responsible for 29% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor. He can do it from all three levels, shooting 46% from 3. He’s a plus rebounder and averaging 38DK. I like him in cash better than GPP. He barely scratched 5x once at that price, plus the road matchup isn’t favorable.
With Geo Baker (G, 5200) likely returning tonight expect some impact on Jacob Young (G, 8100), who has been thriving at the PG spot in his absence. He’s always been a ball hog (26% usage) but now he’s playing 70% more mpg than last season, so it’s translating to real stats. Hard to tell how the rotation will shake up, but Young has two 5.5x games at that price in the last 4 which makes him a GPP threat, but the matchup is bad so may want to look elsewhere (i.e. Zegarowski vs Marquette for $200 cheaper).
I do like Montez Mathis (G, 6800) in GPP though. Maryland lacks the rim protector they’ve had the last few years, so should be driving lanes for Mathis, currently second behind Harper in shot share (27%). Myles Johnson (F, 6300) is coming off a double-double vs Cuse. He and Cliff Omoruyi (F, 4700) are eating each other’s minutes unfortunately. Fr. Cliff’s minutes may decrease as competition increases, but right now I tend to favor his price and upside in GPP. Paul Mulcahy (G, 5100) is technically starting for Geo. Minutes are there, but his production is like my pale Irish skin, very spotty.
No one really jumps out on Maryland, but I’ll start with someone who will be pretty low-owned, Darryl Morsell (G, 6500). His price has plummeted of late, which is why I like him. He scored 14 against Rutgers last year and can fill-in all the other stat columns. No guarantee, but I might put him in a GPP lineup to see if he can snap the cold streak.
Eric Ayala (G, 7500) just doesn’t do it for me. A PG priced that high with only a 19% usage and 20% assist rate is weird. 1-10 from 3 last 3 games and shot share only 22%. Anything is possible, but I’m looking at safer options in that price tier.
I do like Donta Scott (F, 6700), especially if he’s playing 30 minutes. He can board, swat a couple shots, and score in double figures like he has the last 3 straight games. Aaron Wiggins (G, 6300) returned against Clemson which sent Hakim Hart (G, 5600) back to the bench. Both players stunk it up. I may take a shot with Hart who had 48DK when Wiggins was out but not going to reach.
Head Coach Steve Wojciechowski and the Marquette Golden Eagles start Big East play a little banged up, which is not what you want when getting ready to face one of the league’s best teams in Creighton. We’ll monitor the status of Symir Torrence (G, 4000) and Theo John (F, 5500), but their availability could have a big impact on this one. The Bluejays are a -7 point favorite as of this writing and the over under is a Creighton friendly 149.5.
John was a 7K+ player to start the year, but is dealing with a nagging knee issue. The center is the back bone of their defense and did play last game against UCLA despite limited mobility. Hurting him more was probably was the 2-fouls in the first three minutes. At 5500, Theo’s price makes the foul/injury risk worth taking on if you are so inclined. Torrence was battling a toe issue and Woj was hopefully he’d go Saturday. Latest report are calling him doubtful tonight which is too bad because this is a great the match-up.
As for the Eagles that are healthy, DJ Carton (G, 5900) had his breakout game totaling 18-4-5 last time out. He’s fully in play in all formats as is Koby McEwen (G, 6400) who is leading the team in scoring and hitting 43% from deep.
At forward Dawson Garcia (G, 6200) has the highest shot rate on the team. The freshman has been whatever the team has needed this year. Jamal Cain (F, 6000) will have a 6x or a 3x, so GPP only. Honestly, with no MU players over 7k feel free to mix and match all you want!
Creighton is full of stacking options as well. Their top priced players are Marcus Zegarowski (G, 7900) and Denzel Mahoney (G/F, 7000). Zegs leads the team in minutes and usage and is a lock for 4x with upside. Mahoney has the team’s highest shot share and has gone 5x in his last two which has seen his price get bumped up a bit.
A flock of Bluejays come in between 4.5-5.8k. Mitch Ballock (G, 5800) and Damien Jefferson (F, 5400) are my favorite as they play Zegarowski-like minutes and can contribute in a variety of ways. Christian Bishop (F, 5700) is decent value as well, but minutes fluctuate a bit more. Ryan Kalkbrenner (F, 4900) is the team’s center, and has seen an uptick of minutes later. The bigman has a soft touch and has gone 5x in 2-of-3.
The Bears of Northern Colorado head to Boulder as 14-point dogs with an uninspiring 136 over/under. NorCo gave up the fewest 3-point field goal attempts in the nation by a large margin last year and that defensively philosophy remains a staple for this year. They’ve played a couple non-D1 opponents to start the year but will be up against a stingy Colorado D that hasn’t given up many points on the year. This one has the makings of a real DFS stinker, but we’ll see if we can dig up a couple of gems.
With 3 key seniors from last year gone, Bodie Hume (G, 8500) should be the guy offensively for the Bears. He is averaging 22.5 and 10 boards against inferior competition to open this season, but I just don’t see how we can pay $8500 for a team that might not score 60. He’s certainly their best player, but his price is dumb. If you are looking for a revenge narrative, their second-best player should be Colorado transfer Daylen Kountz (G, 6100). Kountz was a rotational guy for Colorado last season and should be the secondary option behind Hume on offense. He averaged 12 field goal attempts in their two opening games and certainly wants to put up a good game against his former teammates tonight.
The best priced option is probably Sam Masten (G, 4200), who was a role player last year who will start tonight. He should get up a few shots and has some rebounding upside for a guard.
Kur Jockuch (F, 5600) is their starting center after averaging 5.6 points and 4.4 board in a time share last season. He’s a willing rebounder and shot 69% from inside the arc last season but needs to stay out of foul trouble. The other returning starter Matt Johnson (G, 5000) is the had miniscule usage as a sophomore last year, including a lack of ancillary production.
It’s a little odd when the superior team has superior pricing, but here we are. It’s still a slow-paced matchup with a weaksauce over/under, so don’t go overboard here. As always, McKinley Wright (G, 7800) is a reliable DFS option who will play all game and has great assist rates. He rarely, if ever, has broken a slate, but he’s going to hover around 4x every game this season. Tulsa transfer Jeriah Horne (F, 7100) has been ultra-productive given the most he’s played is 24 minutes in a game this season. You’d like to see his price closer to $6k given his timeshare. Keeshawn Barthelemy (G, 5300) is a redshirt freshman that gives the Buffs a two-PG look when he shares the court with Wright. He’s taken 20 shots over the last 2 games and increased minutes, so he’s in play.
D’Shawn Schwartz (G/F, 4100) is back from injury and played 24 minutes vs. Tennessee. He was rusty, missing all his shots, but he averaged 10 ppg last season and gets a soft matchup vs. the Bears. Evan Battey (F, 4300) and Dallas Walton (F, 4200) continue to do next to nothing as timeshare centers, but Battey did average 9 points/6 boards last season. Schwartz and Battey are price saving options on a short slate given last year’s performance. For our investors out there, FINRA rule 2210 requires me to remind you that past performance is not indicative of future results, so they are speculative options only.
The Waves head to Vegas as 2.5 road favorites with a solid 149 ½ over/under. Ahh, Vegas. With the COVID-19 vaccine starting today, it’s hard not to daydream about a Vegas trip next season. We may need a Bucket-Con type event in Sin City to celebrate Buckethead nation. Any takers?
Pepperdine will look to push pace with alphas Colbey Ross (G, 8900) and Kessler Edwards (F, 8000). They are both in play in a game that could easily exceed the 149 ½ total despite their massive price tags. Ross has 3 games over 40 DK including a 52-burger last game out. Edwards has been more stable, scoring between 27-42 DK each game.
For the oldheads like us, you may remember George Zidek, who helped UCLA win a strap back in the mid-90s. His son Jan Zidek (F, 4500) has seen increased minutes lately, scoring double digits in 4 straight. I haven’t seen him play yet, but I’ve heard he even has a hook shot in his arsenal like his Pops. He’s a great option at his price point. Zidek’s rise has hurt Pitt transfer Kene Chukwuka (F, 5100), who started the year off hot but has seen his minutes steadily drop with the emergence of Jan.
Jade Smith (G, 4900) has come back to life lately with 3 straight stinkers, but he’s playing a ton of minutes and can score the basketball. Sedrick Altman (G, 4300) also plays a ton of minutes. He doesn’t bring much to the table offensively, but he can do a bit of everything and isn’t a terrible punt option that has hit 4x in 3 of 6 games this season.
UNLV is led by ball-hoggey Bryce Hamilton (G, 8700), who has ridiculous usage and solid assist/rebounding rates. I’d rather play Ross for $200 more, but Hamilton will be lower owned. Caleb Grill (G/F, 6600) and Marvin Coleman (G, 4700) will play the next most minutes with Grill much more involved offensively. Neither stand out as value options, although Grill has been pretty good this season.
I’d rather take a shot on David Jenkins, Jr. (G, 5400), who’s scored 18 and 25 real points over his last 2 games and has 31% shot share when he’s on the court. He’s very scoring dependent, but maybe he can fall into a couple boards or steals. Cheikh Mbacke Diong (F, 4400) has no scoring log on DK, which is odd for their starting center. He’s a good rebounder but has almost no offensive usage and isn’t blocking shots, which kills his DFS upside. As always, best of luck tonight. We want to see our Bucketheads win all the money tonight!!
PrizePicks – 12/14
Koby McEwen
Marquette
The O/U is nearing 150 and McEwen is the team’s shot maker. He’s been over 24.4 in 4-of-6 games this year so there is no reason to thinking he won’t go OVER again.
– Joe
Bryce Hamilton
UNLV
Full disclosure, I don’t love this one, but we’ve got limited options on PP tonight. Hamilton has ridiculous usage in a pace up game, so give me OVER 33.5.
– Byrd
Eric Ayala
Maryland
OVER 24 – Yeah, yeah, I know. This is where you see the difference between PP and DK. Basically listed at 3x on PP, gets a couple steals (3pts vs 2pts), very manageable.
– James