Happy hump day, Bucketheads! We have another healthy CBB slate on tap tonight featuring some high point totals and marquee teams. Suggs, Timme, and Kispert make their DK return as #1 Gonzaga tangles with Culver and Tshiewbe from #11 West Virginia in the Jimmy V. Classic. The night cap of that MTE features the #5 Illinois going toe-to-toe with #2 Baylor to close out the slate. It doesn’t end there! We also get shootouts in Ames, IA and Kingston, RI. The Bucketheads get another look at Michigan, and some PAC-12 heat. What more can we want (except maybe UNLV v. Alabama). The night is simply packed with quality hoops from start to finish!
Did you know our tabs are color coded based on the game’s over/under? We do this so that if you need to make changes in a pinch you can quickly identify the high scoring games and their content. The gradient shading works from red to green and breaks down as such:
- Red – Over/Under is <135
- Orange – Over/Under is 135-140
- Yellow – Over/Under is 140-145
- Light Green – Over/Under is 145-150
- Darker Green – Over/Under is >150
We feel this is great information for those looking for quick info. Naturally, we apologize to the 1 in 12 men (8%) and 1 in 200 women of the world that are color blind.
Good luck tonight Bucketheads! Let’s have someone take home 10K on a Wednesday!
In what should be a paced up game Rhode Island takes on Seton Hall tonight in the main slate’s opening game. We’ll watch to see if the Rams can attend the A10 surprise party as the league’s Saint Louis and Richmond have both scored major non-con wins (LSU and Kentucky) in the the season’s opening week.
URI will have the advantage of playing at home, but Vegas still still gives the slight edge to the Pirates listing them as -2.5 point favorites. The over/under is set at 149 so there should be plenty of scoring and DFS gold in this game.
With 4 games under their belt, Rhode Island has established that they like to play with pace currently ranking 40th in adj. tempo on KenPom. Fatts Russell (G, 9200) dominates the usage and shot share, but has only eclipsed 4x once at this price point. He is fine in cash, but probably not a GPP target.
The price drop after Fatts is significant. Antwan Walker (F, 6800) leads the team in rebounding and plays the most minutes in the paint. Jeremy Sheppard (G, 6000) has been consistent, but a bit boring from a stat line perspective. I’d probably fade both and maybe look at Jalen Carey (G, 4200) or Makhi Mitchell (F, 3700). Both start for the team. Former ‘Cuse guard Carey has double figures in his last two and Mitchell doesn’t log a ton of minutes, but his size may be needed against Mamu and Ike.
Sandro Mamukelashvili (F, 8500), or Mamu as referenced above, has taken the reigns of this Seton Hall team. He has 41 and 31 DK in the Pirates first two and is appropriately priced. Mamu leads the team in usage and shot rate, and that trend should continue. Especially with Bryce Aiken (G, 4900) out. Aiken had a 32% shot share in his only game.
Jared Rhoden (G/F, 8200) stepped in up in Aiken’s absence and dropped 47 DK last game. Rhoden typically runs hot and cold, so he is a potential low owned GPP flier for me. Shavar Reynolds (G, 5500) has taken over Aiken’s duties at point and had 28 DK with only 5 real points last game – can you say ancillary stats? Finally, our boy Myles Cale (G/F, 4800) is priced to play. With Cale you get 30 minutes from an athletic 3 and D guy who went 6x last time out.
Given the total of this game pushing 150 there is value on both sides here. Unfortunately, the teams haven’t shown us who their breakout guys are in these situations. I like players who are active and get up shots to be those breakout plays and Cale and Carey fit that mold.
While this isn’t the sexiest matchup from a real-life perspective, we’ve got an over/under north of 150 and a close 2-point line. The Jackrabbits have played 3 quality opponents so far, while we are still learning a bit about Iowa State’s conglomeration of transfers and new faces.
Douglas Wilson (F, 7200) is SDSU’s best player. He’s got great usage offensively, averaging almost 12 shots/game and 7 FTAs and offers solid rebounding and block potential. He’s a great option in this game environment. Noah Friedel (G, 6300) is the next highest usage play for the Jackrabbits and has really filled up the stat sheet, which we love from a DFS perspective.
Baylor Scheierman (G, 5400) is getting up double digit shots per game but is a little scoring dependent. His outputs of 4x/7x/3x make him a GPP option only. Alex Arians (G, 4400) has scored 20 DK points all 3 games this season while playing 81% of the minutes at PG. He’s a nice value option with a high floor.
After a disastrous first half, Prohm’s Cyclones pulled it together in the second half of their opener. However, they are still figuring out their rotations, so lots of uncertainty here. Former Penn St. guard Rasir Bolton (G, 8300) leads the way for Iowa State. He should be the primary DFS option for the Cyclones, but with ball hoggy Jalen Coleman-Lands (G, 5600) chucking 3s next to him, they may need to find a way to play with two balls on the court at one time. If you like volume shooters, former Illini and Blue Devil JCL is right up your alley. Tyler Harris (G, 4600) played the 2nd most minutes for the Cyclones in game 1. The former Memphis Tiger has scored double digits 36 times in his 68-game college career, making him a solid value option tonight.
I was shocked George Conduitt (F, 4000) and Solomon Young (F, 5800) both played less than 20 minutes in the opener. I would have expected them to play 25+ minutes at least, so something to monitor. Freshmen Darlinstone Dubar (G, 4400) may have been why. He drew the praise of his head coach for his effort in the postgame. Troy transfer Javan Johnson (F, 5100) started and played 28 minutes in the opener as well, filling up the stat sheet. It’s fair to call me SAWFT, but I’m taking a wait and see approach for everyone listed in this paragraph.
Not much noteworthy about this game. Michigan needed OT to get past a fairly unspectacular (#311) Oakland team their last game. Ball St is a significant step-up in competition, but Vegas still likes the blowout.
The Cardinals are lead by 6th year senior, and former Mizzou Tiger, KJ Walton (G, 7300). He took 21 shots his first game back and snagged 11 rebounds, which is awesome. Not sure he can sustain a 49% shot share, but with that kind of selfish, ball-hoggery, I’m there. Sign me up. The only other player of note for Ball St is Ishmael El-Amin (G, 5800). He scored 15 last game and committed 4 steals. If you didn’t want to pay up for Walton but wanted a piece of this Ball St action for some reason, he’s your guy.
6’10 C Blake Huggins (F, 4800) can get boards and a couple blocks. Luke Bumbalough (G, 3000) isn’t what you would call good shooter, but he does shoot. He played 33 mins last game, and took 162 threes last season if you want to play the lottery.
Franz Wagner (G, 8800) has gotten off to a slow start. I was pretty high on him coming into the season, but I’m pulling back slightly. He did have 13 boards in the OT game against Oakland but only took 5 shots. With Livers back and the addition of Brown, eating up shot attempts, his 18% shot share is a red flag at that price. I may look at other options until his role is clearer.
For $100 less dollars, you can get Isaiah Livers (F, 8700). He’s averaging 13 shot attempts per game so far (37 DK) and 8-15 from three, so seems he’s fully back and someone you can target tonight. As mentioned, Wake Forest transfer, Chaundee Brown (G, 5700) got up 14 shots last game in 28 minutes. That only translated into 15DK but he was a confident shot taker at Wake, and I don’t see that changing. I think it’s a matter of time before they go in, so get him while he’s cheap.
Big 7’1 Hunter Dickinson (F, 6300) is getting solid production. I’d like to see him start and his minutes to increase a bit to make me feel good about the spend, but 19 points last game and matchup is good. Seems like Coach Howard is still tinkering with lineups, so a little hard to predict right now, but if playing time is important, Sr. Eli Brooks (G, 6600) plays all the minutes.
Bad Boy Mowers Classic champions WVU head to Indy to face consensus #1 Gonzaga in a neutral site affair. I’m a little perplexed by the line, as I think the only way WVU can compete is to slow the pace and pound the ball inside. However, with an over/under in the mid 150s, Vegas thinks otherwise. If this game goes over, I think the Zags win by double digits. That said, we earn the big buckets with our DFS analysis and not our sports betting picks. Oh wait, @cbb_dfs works for free!?!?
Let’s start with the obvious. Oscar Tshiebwe (F, 6100) is underpriced. He’s a walking double double and if he avoids foul trouble, he’ll smash value. Derek Culver (F, 8100) is the other twin tower down low and he’s been significantly more efficient offensively this year. He’s garner zero ownership with Tshiebwe at $2000 less and has 40 DK upside.
As expected, Miles McBride (G, 6100) has taken a sophomore leap, averaging 16 ppg with the highest shot % on the team. He’s a solid 4x option in a high scoring environment. The biggest issue from a DFS perspective with the Mountaineers last year was the lack of options beyond the big 3, but Sean McNeil (G, 4900) has stepped up this year. He’s playing over 30 minutes per game and averages double digit shot attempts. He’s a bit scoring dependent, but minutes equal money so he’ll be a solid price saver. I love Gabe Osabuohien’s (F, 5000) toughness and production, but he maxes out at 20 minutes per game off the bench, which really kills his upside.
Taz Sherman (G, 4000) provides some shooting off the bench and should play 20 minutes. Emmitt Matthews (G, 3600) has been a ghost this season, so unless you are looking for a discount on a bad Halloween costume, you should look elsewhere.
It’s really hard not to overreact about the Zags so far because they look freaking awesome. Huggins brand of hard-nosed, physical defense probably has a better chance to beat a team like the Zags than someone like Iowa who can score but doesn’t play defense, but I’m not sure it matters. They might just be too talented.
Drew Timme (F, 8400) has been incredible this season, averaging almost 27 points and 8 boards a game. This will be the toughest frontcourt he faces all season, so I think you have to limit expectations. A 4x output is still possible, but I don’t see him breaking the slate. I’d rather spend $900 less for Corey Kispert (F, 7600), who is averaging an efficient 24 points a game and can score on all 3 levels.
Jalen Suggs (G, 7500) has scored over 30 DK points to start his college career and has fully lived up to the hype as the best freshmen the Zags have ever recruited. Stud PGs in games with a mid-150s over/under are always in play, although the Andrew Nembhard (G, 5300) eligibility hurts his upside a bit.
Joel Ajayi (G, 7100) is the forgotten man offensively, as his usage is way down. He’s still playing over 30 minutes a game, but hard to spend over $7k for the 4th scoring option on a team. Anton Watson (F, 4700) hasn’t done much this year, but he’s still playing 20+ minutes a game. His game logs will lead to minimal ownership, but it’s a potential matchup play if you think Few will play the 6’8 forward a bit more to matchup against WVU’s massive front line.
Two projected bottom feeders open Pac-12 play in Pulliam with the Beavers sitting as small favorites and an over/under just below 140. Gone are the days of Tres Tinkle and CJ Elleby, but there are a few alpha guards left so let’s dive in.
Ethan Thompson (G, 8600) has 34% shot share and a top 50 assist rate, so he’s a full-blown usage monster. Nicholls St. transfer Warith Alatishe (F, 6500) has filled the stat sheet in 30+ minutes per game. Zach Reichle (G, 5500) was expected to be the #2 option for the Beavers and has been efficient so far this season. Jarod Lucas (G, 4800) has gotten up shots and is getting to the charity stripe, while 6’10 Oklahoma State transfer Maurice Callo (F, 4900) has been effective against a couple cupcakes to start the year. With a mediocre over/under and some uncertainty in terms of roles, the top 3 are the safest while the rest are risky GPP options only.
Issac Bonton (G, 7900) has a ridiculous 38% shot share and no reason to expect that to drop anytime soon. He’ll play all the minutes and dropped 34 real points on Oregon St. last season. Noah Williams (G, 6900) went bananas last game, but I’d like to see him do it consistently before I’m willing to invest at that price tag. Alijaz Kunc (F, 5200) is probably their next best player, but the Cougars played 9 players over 10 minutes last game, lowering everyone’s upside not named Issac Bonton. Finally, while DFS irrelevant, Dennis Rodman’s son starts for the Cougars too.
We end the night with a battle of two current top 5 teams. Baylor’s #2 KenPom ranking actually mirrors their AP ranking, while Illinois has a fairly large discrepancy; #5 in the AP and #22 in KenPom. The Bears are coming off an impressive walloping of Washington over the weekend. Meanwhile, the Illini struggled to get past a stingy Ohio team. This game could devolve into a slug-fest as both teams excel defensively, which could cause the pace to be slower than either team wants to play. Both teams will likely have a relatively thin bench. These are the top 2 offensive rebounding teams in the nation.
Pre-season All-American Ayo Dosunmu (G, 9400) shot out of the gate with all cylinders firing. He’s the price-king on the slate overall and for good reason. His 31% usage and 36% shot share is accompanied by proficiency in rebounding and a top 50 assist rate in the country. He’s the alpha here without question. While this matchup is as bad as it gets, he’ll simply have the ball in his hands at all times.
Kofi Cockburn (F, 7800) has had a double-double in each of his first three games this season. Otherwise, he hasn’t looked as dominant as he can. Look for the Illini to establish him early, much in the way Kansas used Udoka Azubuike last season when he went off for 23 and 19 against the Bears. Kofi isn’t there yet, but the opportunity should be all night.
For Illinois to stay competitive, they’ll need Fr. Adam “Ace Wolf” Miller (G, 5900) to stay hot. He’s 8-17 from downtown (47%) thus far. Look for him to get plenty of shots up to try spreading the defense. Same for Sr. Trent Frazier (G, 5100), but his scoring outbursts are sporadic and unpredictable so view him as more of a GPP gamble. Demonte Williams (G, 5300) has flashed 5x a couple times already. He can do a little of everything, making him a decent cash option.
Jared Butler (G, 8000) is the alpha on the Baylor side. He has a similar offensive rating (141) as Ayo but doesn’t demand the ball nearly as much (23% usage). His minutes are down so far this year, likely because he hasn’t been fully needed yet. I like him to surpass 30 minutes tonight and hit 5x.
Mark Vital (G/F, 6700), Maceo Teague (G, 6400) and Davion Mitchell (G, 6200) make up the remaining core. Vital is a plus rebounder, Mitchell can rack up assists, but Teague is the primary scoring threat at 27% shot share. If I had to pick one to play in GPP, it would be him but all three should be viable options in cash. Adam Flagler (G, 4800) is a cheap shooter you can take a flyer on in GPP, 5x in last 2.
Baylor will likely run a train of bigs at Kofi all night; Flo Thamba (F, 3900), Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua (F, 4600), and Matthew Mayer (G/F, 4500). While one could emerge, they should be viewed as darts in this matchup.
PrizePicks – 12/2/2020
Isaiah Livers
MICHIGAN
This O/U is just 142.5 and UM is a big favorite (-15). Livers has the ability, but I don’t think they will need him to go over 33.1 fantasy points. Give me the UNDER.
– Joe
Derek Culver
WEST VIRGINIA
He’s averaging a double-double and gets a pace-up game where he’ll be needed on both ends of the floor. I like the OVER 26.1 for Culver tonight.
-Byrd
Fatts Russell
RHODE ISLAND
Seton Hall couldn’t contain Louisville’s Carlik Jones or Iona’s Isaiah Ross. Now they get one of the best lead guards in the country. I like him to get OVER 31.9 tonight.
– James