We have a small 3-game slate to get our week started. This slate comes with a pushed up start in the Big East match-up between St. John’s and Connecticut to 1:30 PM CST, so get your line-ups in now!
The remaining two games feature Florida State visiting Louisville and the marquee 8:00 tip between #2 Baylor hosting #6 Kansas. This game will also be available for Showdown players as well.
Recently we have seen a dip in CBB activity as the dog days of winter droll on. Nice to see GPP’s are continuing to fill over the weekend. With NFL dwindling down all we can do is keep playing and building our community in hopes that larger prize pools are ahead. Tonight we want one Buckethead to win the 3K that is going to first. To do that, just start reading below! #LFG
St. John’s and Connecticut rekindle an old rivalry that has been dormant for the past 7 years tonight as the Red Storm rolls into Storrs. These renewed Big East foes start the game at 1:30 CST, in a tip that was moved up giving us some early action on this small 3-game slate. UConn is still without star guard James Bouknight, who is expected out 4-week after undergoing surgery on his elbow, but the Huskies have won their last two in his absence. Vegas has the home team continuing their winning ways forecasting them an -8 point favorite. The game total is 141.5, which is surprisingly low considering the Red Storm play at the nation’s 14th fastest place.
With Bouknight out, UConn has taken on the identity of Rhode Island transfer Tyrese Martin (G/F, 7500). In the last two games he has put up a least 5x. Not a natural scorer, Martin piles up ancillary production be it with 5 steals last game or 7 boards the game prior. His effort makes him a solid cash play tonight with GPP upside.
Tyler Polley (F, 6000) is the target if you are looking to get a potential offensive breakout in this one. He has been coming off the bench, but logging starter minutes to go with his 25% shot share and the nation’s 17th best offensive rating. Despite the forward designation Polley is scoring dependent as evident by his 19 point ZERO rebound, assist, steal, block… or turnover game against Butler. Rounding out the forwards, Isaiah Whaley (F, 7300) is super active down low, and has 40 DK upside. Josh Carlton (F, 4200) and Akok Akok (F, 3000) are dart throws that need extended minutes. Akok has only two games back after an Achilles tear in 2019.
To put a bow on the Huskies RJ Cole (G, 6300) doesn’t have stats reporting in DK, but he has usage and shot share rates over 20%. Brendan Adams (G, 4600) plays safe minutes, but has shown little upside. That being said opponents are hitting 37% from 3 and 55% from 2 against the Red Storm this year, so everyone is playable in some capacity.
St. John’s can score but the defense has been an issue. In the last two games the D has been a little better though with additional minutes given to Josh Roberts (F, 3900). I’d expect him to get another 20 tonight and be a nice cheap GPP option.
Cheap GPP options let you get up to guys like Julian Champagnie (G/F, 9500), the slate’s price king. The sophomore had a 61 DK game back on 1/9, but hasn’t exceed 35 in 3 other contests in 2021. Given that UConn wants to slow this game down, I can’t recommend him tonight.
If you want Red Storm exposure it may be better to look at the guard spots. Posh Alexander (G, 5900), Greg Williams, Jr. (G/F, 4900), and Rasheem Dunn (G, 4700) could all get near 30 minutes in this one and each has been the team’s #2 at different points in the season. Another scorer Vince Cole (G/F, 4100), 9.9 ppg, also factors in to this rotation at times making finding the right play difficult.
Finally, the forwards are an equally difficult find as Roberts has eaten into the minutes of Isaih Moore (F, 4600), Marcellus Earlington (G/F, 3800), and Arnaldo Toro (F, 3100) best to just fade those 3 as I do prefer Roberts.
The Cardinals welcome the Seminoles to the KFC Yum! Center. Florida State made a run through the Carolinas last week, dismantling NC State and UNC. Louisville has won 5 of their last 6, coming off a loss to Miami. Florida St is scorching the nets, shooting 47% from 3 in ACC play. Louisville prefers to get it done inside the arc, getting 58% of their points there.
Louisville lives and dies with Carlik Jones (G, 9300) and his 28% usage and 29% shot share. He’s at an all-time high price on the small slate but 5x his last 2 games at that price. Hasn’t hit more than one 3 in last 6 games so doesn’t need them to produce, he can be used in all formats.
David Johnson (G, 6800) is more shot-dependent however. Shot attempts are down the last couple of games, so we’d like to see a positive regression; solid GPP play with price discount.
Fr. big man, Jae’Lyn Withers (F, 6700) is the team’s best rebounder. Foul trouble keeps him from playing consistent minutes however (5.8 per 40 mins). Tough matchup here, but he’s a boom/bust play for tournaments. Former 5-star Samuell Williamson (G/F, 5500) is in a similar category. If you value home/road splits, he’s only averaging 3x at home and matchup is poor.
Dre Davis (G/F, 5300) is overpriced, even on the micro-slate. He’s only hit 4x at that price once against a major opponent. Quinn Slazinski (F, 4000) is the only other viable option. He did hit 5x once against BC, otherwise, nothing to get excited about.
No word on Scottie Barnes’s (G/F, 6600) status as of this writing but definitely one you will want to follow. He’s playable in tournaments if he goes. Otherwise, you can pivot over to Rayquan Evans (G, 5400), 31 mins last game as a starter.
MJ Walker (G, 6200) is in great form lately going 5x/6x in last 2. We obviously like him better if Barnes can’t go, but he’s a solid GPP play regardless. Raiquan Gray (F, 5700) is coming off 7x vs UNC. While he’s unlikely to repeat, the matchup does favor him. Similarly, the big man that gets a majority of the minutes is Balsa Koprivica (F, 5200). His shot share is super low (16% in ACC), but he has rebound upside and matchup will favor him.
Anthony Polite (G, 5000) is priced down after turning in a real stinker last game (5.75 DK). He’s a capable and proven utility player however, and I do like him as a lower value punt play in GPP. Malik Osborne (F, 3800) scored 4x in 3 of last 4.
The final game of the slate is one of the feature games in the Big 12 this season, as #6 Kansas faces off with #2 Baylor in Waco, TX. Baylor is a 9 point home favorite with an over/under of 140.5. Baylor has the #1 defensive in adjusted efficiency per Kenpom, creating turnovers at the 3rd highest rate in the nation while eliminating the 3 from opposing teams. Add in a 58% effective FG% offensively, including 42% from 3, and it’s easy to see why Baylor is widely considered the 2nd best team in the nation. DraftKings is also featuring this game with a $10 Showdown slate paying out $1k to first in this game, so there are multiple ways to get in on the action here. Let’s start the week off right by watching some elite basketball and hopefully ending the day with you winning all the money!!
How quickly things can change, as Big Dave McCormack (F, 7800) is all of a sudden price king for the Jayhawks. He has played much better lately, but this price increase is just dumb. Dave has elite usage, but he’s way more of a $6500 player given his profile this season. You’ll get low ownership if you decide to roll with him. Ochai Agbaji (G, 7100) is playing 86% of the minutes in conference play with 25% shot share. Baylor has been his kryptonite, scoring a total of 6 points in 2 games vs. them last year, but he’s generally a consistent mid-to-high 20 DK producer.
Jalen Wilson (F, 6400) has hit the dreaded redshirt freshman wall (is that a thing?), but he’s still playing 30+ minutes per game and has a defined role offensively. We are getting a massive discount on a player that has seven 30+ DK efforts this season. I also like Marcus Garrett (G, 5600) at this price. Garrett was a preseason All-American who has battled a variety of health issues this season, but he should be a very safe cash option with some upside. Baylor is excellent defending the 3, so Christian Braun (G, 5100) remains a boom or bust GPP option, but we love to see his price decreasing. It may not be tonight, but he’ll have a smashburger sometime very soon.
I was hoping for a bigger price drop for Jared Butler (G, 8800), who is coming off a subpar game. He’s Baylor’s best player, has 27% shot share, top 80 assist rates nationally, and scored over 20 ppg against a better version of KU last season. I love everything about Butler but his price point. MaCio Teague (G/F, 6900) has really turned into a scoring dependent option from a DFS perspective. He’s playing 89% of the minutes in conference play and has 24% shot share in league play, but you’d like to see more ancillary production at this price point.
Davion Mitchell (G, 6500) is getting the national attention he deserves as an elite defender, but he’s improved as a scorer and facilitator as well. He’s seen increased shot share in conference play an KU allows opponent steals at an above average rate, so I like Mitchell at home tonight at a reasonable price point. Mark Vital (G/F, 4800) has seen 25/30 minutes over the last 2 games, which is a great sign. His production is way down this season, but he’s a potential bet on talent GPP option.
We’ve seen KU get torched by 3-point shooters throughout the season, so this game profiles well for Adam Flagler (G, 4500). He’s a flamethrower from deep, but obviously only a tourney option given his high variance and shot dependent scoring. The same logic applies to Matthew Mayer (G/F, 4400), who has shown microwave tendencies off the bench but has cooled recently. The last flyer is Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (F, 4300), who will be needed to matchup with Big Dave down low. He’s shown 20+ DK upside in the past as an energetic, shot blocking big and his size will be needed to defend McCormack down low. I expect Baylor to give KU everything they want and more, so a 4-part Baylor, 2-part KU build may be logical in the Showdown slate as well. Best of luck tonight Bucketheads. We want to see you win all the money!!
Prize Picks – 1/18/21
MaCio Teague
Baylor
Teague has turned into a very scoring dependent option of late. While he’ll certainly shoot a bunch, his lack of steal and block upside will make it harder for him to hit value. Give the the UNDER 23.8.
– Byrd
Isaiah Whaley
Connecticut
St. John’s is giving up a 55% field goal percentage within the arc. Whaley should be additionally active in this faster paced game. He soars OVER the 24.0 on Prize Picks.
– Joe
David Johnson
Louisville
Shot attempts are down over last two games, so expecting a positive regression as they will need him. I like him to get OVER 24.0
– James