We are methodically working our way through the week, as time seems to drag on a bit in winter, especially in Central IL. That said, there’s no rest time for your boys @cbb_dfs. We continue to work day and night to deliver you the best college basketball daily fantasy sports and PrizePicks advice we can offer. We hope you are enjoying the content this season and we’ll be here the rest of the way as we countdown to March Madness, which is roughly 8 weeks away.
Tonight we have a solid 8 game slate with some Big East and SEC heat, some lukewarm ACC and Pac-12 offerings, and a frigid AAC option. There are some stone cold lock plays tonight, some solid GPP and cash targets, and some landmines we want to avoid. We’ll provide all of those details and more below.
In addition, PrizePicks will be announcing a new feature today, so use promo code CBBDFS or this link for 100% deposit match. It takes less than 60 seconds to make your picks and start winning cold hard digital cash and payouts are quick/easy. As always, best of luck Bucketheads!!
Our slate tips off with an intriguing SEC showdown when the Wildcats take on the Bulldogs in Athens. Kentucky is a -4 point favorite and the over under is at a pleasing 145.5 thanks to UGA’s 8th fastest tempo in the nation. UK is trying to snap a 2-game skid, but it is worth noting that both losses have come to quicker paced SEC teams in Alabama and Auburn.
Defense hasn’t been an issue for the Wildcats, but the offense has. This is reflective in their current DK pricing as no Cats are over 6500. Given the pace UK does have a lot of value tonight, but who is the question.
Keion Brooks Jr. (F, 6500) is a safe play but hasn’t shown GPP upside since he returned. Brandon Boston (G/F, 6000) would be a better option as you save $500 and he has shown 5x upside coming in to this plus match-up. Davion Mintz (G, 5700) is the third highest priced player, but he hasn’t cracked 4x in 2021.
UGA doesn’t bring a lot of size, so Olivier Sarr (F, 5400) could have a day if UK slows things down. I prefer Isaiah Jackson (F, 5600) a little bit more. He is an uber-athlete that could have a big day if UGA gets sloppy (which they tend to do). We’ll monitor the day-to day tag on Terrence Clarke (G, 3400). He has missed the last 5 games opening the door for Dontaie Allen (G, 4600). If Clarke plays, he’s the second auto-play-lock on the slate.
The first is KD Johnson (G, 3800) for Georgia. Since becoming eligible on 1/11, Johnson has averaged 17.5 point, 3 boards, and 3 steals over 51 minutes in two games. He gives UGA a much needed third option. Kid can play.
The only down side here is that Johnson is a natural point guard, so his 33% usage has cut in to Sahvir Wheeler (G, 8000) some. With UK’s defensive chops, I am probably off Sahvir. Toumani Camara (F, 7800) is tough to trust as well at his price point. Justin Kier (G, 5500) and PJ Horne (F, 5300) will each get 30 minutes, Tye Fagan (G/F, 4900) will factor in too, but there are better options at 5k price point on this 8-game slate.
Tough start for Coach Forbes this season, after starting 3-0, Wake is winless in ACC play. They travel to Chapel Hill to take on a UNC team that has won 3 of their last 4, recently coming off a loss at Florida St. The Tar Heels front court should eat all game long. They will have a big advantage on the boards. Wake is also giving up 63% 2P% which spells disaster for them and financial success for Bucketheads.
Take away the Syracuse game (41 DK), Garrison Brooks (F, 7500) has had a pedestrian conference season, with numbers you’d expect from Leaky Black (G/F, 5900). This is mostly due to the over-crowded front court. He’s overpriced but matchup is sweet as pie.
Day’Ron Sharpe (F, 6900) is in smash position. He’s priced down slightly after a couple of stinkers, partially due to foul trouble. Definitely a GPP play, but these are the scenarios you try to find. All of that can also be said for Armando Bacot (F, 6100), this is where the gambling part comes in though. I prefer Sharpe but you can certainly take the price savings as well.
Kerwin Walton (G, 4900) has sort of emerged as a consistent shooting threat in the backcourt since Caleb Love (G, 4500) is taking more of a backseat. He’s playable in either format, but I like RJ Davis (G, 4700) in tournaments. He’s in nice form lately, more assertive on the offensive end.
Other than being a pace-up game for Wake, not a great matchup all around. Daivien Williamson (G, 6400) is the price king for the Deacons. He’s averaging 4x across last 3 games, not exactly inspiring, especially considering his 19% usage/shot share.
Let’s just skip most of the Wake guys actually. They have an extremely deep bench, so let’s highlight a couple value guys and move on. Ismael Massoud (F, 4300) leads the team in usage and shot share (25%/28%) and is also the team’s best defensive rebounder, oh and their best 3 point shooter (41%). Logs aren’t great because minutes aren’t there, but I like the shooting upside. Jonah Antonio (G/F, 4200) is all or nothing literally, 6x in 2 of last 4, 1x in the other 2.
These two schools danced on January 2nd, with Creighton earning a 67-65 road victory. That started the the Friars current three game losing streak, and Vegas thinks it continues tonight having the Jays as a -10 point favorite. The over-under here is 145, 13 points higher than the previous total.
David Duke (G, 9400) is the price king tonight and he had 28.5 DK in the first meeting. That game was the only game under 4x in his last 5 however. He also has a 55 and 49 burger during that span. Nate Watson (F, 7900) is the team’s second, and quite frankly last option after Duke. He has been a safe cash play, but I prefer him in the low 7000s instead of him at a season high 7900.
The rest of the Friars really are tough to play. AJ Reeves (G, 5600) is a shooter who can get hot, but he’s not a sexy play. His usage has increased as Jared Bynum (G, 4000) continues to miss time, but he is still very shot dependent.
With Creighton we continue to watch the status of Marcus Zegarowski (G, 7100). Coach McDermott is being cautions with his star, as he enters his third straight game as a game time decision. If he plays, I think you can start him. If he sits again, normally we shift focus to the other Jays, but their prices are starting to climb in his absence.
Denzel Mahoney (G/F, 8300) is up $1600 after scoring 37 and 47 DK in his last two. Christian Bishop (F, 6400) is at a season high price point, but rarely shows GPP upside. Mitch Ballock (G, 5800) has had 13 or fewer DK in 2-of-3, but he is up $600. The only one who’s price is down is Damien Jefferson (F, 7000), but he was over priced to begin with and still is. #Frustrating.
Never-the-less this is a a good game to get exposure too, and there are some cheap options that each come with risk. Shereef Mitcell (G, 4400) has been starting for Zegs and has been just okay. My guy Ryan Kalkbrenner (F, 4100) is a point-per-minute machine, but needs minutes. Last game he only got nine. Antwann Jones (G, 3800) has also been getting a little run lately, but that is as deep as I am going.
The only way this game will be DFS relevant is if it goes to quadruple overtime, which the Yellow Jackets did in their opener. They’re currently on a 4 game winning streak and will host Clemson tonight, who was recently slaughtered by Virginia. The Cavs went 15-27 from 3, which is an issue for the Tigers (39% 3P%), so you can give Tech shooters a little bump.
The Yellow Jackets run a pretty short bench, which is good at least. Jose Alvarado (G, 9200) is the alpha scorer. He’s in great form and shooting 41% from 3, 5x/5x/4x in last 3. His price is obnoxious here though, making him a risky tournament play unfortunately.
Moses Wright (F, 8200) is more of an interior scorer, could be a little rebounding upside but not a juicy matchup for the price. Of the three, I like Michael Devoe (G/F, 6800) the best. He leads the team in usage and shot share (25%/24%) and is fairly priced. He’s shown 5x flashes at times this season.
Jordan Usher (G/F, 6500) is scrappy and can do a lot of different things. Definitely a gamble here, would love to see 10+ shot attempts. Short-stack, Bubba Parham (G, 5400) is in decent form at least, 5x/2x/5x/4x in last 4.
I don’t mind this matchup for Aamir Simms (F, 7300). He’s priced down after a bad outing against Virginia. Tech doesn’t have the interior defensive presence they’ve had in the past. If Simms can get up shots, he has slate-breaking ability.
Not crazy about Nick Honor (G, 6500) in this game. While he’s a good shooter (42% 3P%), the pace doesn’t suit him, making him a high-risk option.
With the low projected score, none of the other Tigers look all that appealing. It’s certainly possible, one of the sub-5000 guys gets going, but it’s a guessing game to determine who.
Houston is a solid 11.5 home favorite with a not so solid 126.5 over/under. Both teams play in the 300s in tempo and Houston has the 4th best defense in adjusted efficiency per kenpom.com, which is why this section is labeled in red. This is the definition of don’t go overboard, so our writeup won’t go overboard either.
Tulsa had 8 players play 20+ minutes in their 66-65 win vs. Houston earlier this year and 10 players play 10+ minutes last game vs. Memphis. Hard to have any ceiling with that much balance. Brandon Rachal (F, 7700) had 22 points and 8 boards in their first matchup. I’ll take the under on that production tonight. Chicago native Elijah Joiner (G, 6200) has steady minutes as well, but has only exceeded 4x once at this price since early Dec. Darien Jackson (G, 4500) played a season high minutes vs. Houston earlier this year and had 4x in 7 straight before struggling last game. The rest of the Tulsa options are “hope to get lucky” tourney plays only.
Quentin Grimes (G/F, 8500) dropped 37 DK at Tulsa and has a boom or bust profile. The former Jayhawk is their primary offensive weapon, especially with Caleb Mills out of the picture, but hard to press the button in the mid-$8k range with a over/under less than 130. Justin Gorham (F, 7200) is an excellent offensive rebounder, but has 11% usage which makes this price point hard to swallow.
Our boy DeJon Jarreau (G, 6800) continues his trends of hit or miss performances. He’s an elite defender that can fill up the stat sheet, but definitely a tourney option only given his volatility. Marcus Sasser (G, 6700) is the 2nd best true scorer on the team and will play 30+ minutes. He’s very scoring dependent and priced up $1200 from the last time these teams met. Brison Gresham (F, 4200) and Tramon Mark (G, 3800) round out the rotation. Gresham is a rotational big while Mark will see some time at SG/SF and has some proven production when given the minutes. Both are punt plays at best given this game environment.
After getting off to a hot start in B1G play, winning their first 3 games, Northwestern has dropped their last 5, with no loss less than 10 points. Bad news for them, they head to the Kohl Center tonight to face off against Wisconsin. Expect a low scoring game, particularly for the Wildcats.
D’Mitrik Trice (G, 7300) has cooled a bit his last couple of games going 4x. He’s a lock for cash play and extremely viable in tournaments as well. Down low, I like Micah Potter (F, 6700) and Aleem Ford (F, 5900). Northwestern has given up big games to front court players all season, both are solid GPP plays.
I’m not sure why DK keeps putting Wisconsin on slates, but I’m seriously running out of Brad Davison (G, 5300) jokes. Fact is, he is and always will be shot-dependent. At his current price though, he really only needs to knock down a couple balls (I hate myself).
It’s insane but Nate Reuvers (F, 4100) isn’t rosterable. Looks like Tyler Wahl (F, 4700) is getting a majority of the minutes, he’s playable in cash games.
Pete Nance (F, 7100) is priced up after getting 38 DK against Iowa. That’s fool’s gold though as this will be a much slower and more challenging matchup. Hard to pay that price with better options out there.
Miller Kopp (F, 6300) could be a low-owned GPP option. He’s a streaky shooter, and that’s one area the Badgers can be exposed. Chase Audige (G, 5900) can get cooking occasionally. You can take a shot with him in GPP, same with Boo Buie (G, 5200). He finally showed some signs of life recently and still getting shots up. I’m not targeting anyone else in this one.
Arkansas won the first meeting this year 97-85 in the SEC opener for both teams. Since then these two teams have gone if different directions. The Razorbacks, who opened the year 9-0 after that win, have dropped 4-of-5. Auburn has won two in a row in large part due to the impromptu eligibility of Sharife Cooper (G, 9000). Cooper’s DK price has climbed 3000 to 6700 to 8200 to where it is now. Two games of 48 or more DK in his first three definitely will do that. Arkansas wants to play fast and has given up 90 or more in the last two, so no reason to shy away from Sharife now. Vegas has this game total at 160 so there should be a lot of options from this one.
After Cooper, Auburn has a variety of talented players. We’ll watch the status of Justin Powell (G, 6300) as he has been in the concussion protocol. Tiger fans are excited to see what he and Cooper do when on the floor together. For now, let’s assume he remains out. This gives a bump to the other wings on Auburn in Allen Flanigan (G/F, 7000), Devan Cambridge (G, 5600) and Jamal Johnson (G, 4800). Flanigan has the safest minute share, and Cambridge has really adapted well to his 6th man role. Johnson has had a run of 6 straight games scoring in double figures snapped last time out reducing his price a bit.
In the paint, if you want to call it that, Jaylin Williams (F, 6200) and JT Thor (F, 5800) eat up most of the minutes. Both will take open threes, alter shots, and crash the offensive glass. I don’t hate either, but they are down in the pecking order for Auburn from a usage and shot share perspective. No need to worry about either getting paced out of this one as well.
Playing at the 20th fastest tempo in the nation, Arkansas provides nice DFS options on a nightly basis. Unfortunately, one of those plays, Moses Moody (G/F, 8800), is now at a season high price point after a $1300 jump. Loved Moody in that mid 7k range, now he is more of a cash target for me. While Moody’s price has jumped JD Notae (G, 6000) has remained consistent. This is good for GPP players as the super sub still leads the team in shot rate and usage, both number over 30%.
Jalen Tate (G, 6100) runs the point for this team, but has game logs that are too volatile for me. Davonte Davis (G, 5100) is also a GPP only type guy. Desi Sills (G, 4400) is a much safer option. He was an 8k player earlier in the year and had 40 DK in the first meeting between these two.
The only notable option in the post is Justin Smith (F, 5100), who returned last game and played 18 minutes. He should increase upon that and could be a nice value option here. Vance Jackson (F, 4400) will lose minutes in his return. Speaking of minutes, 13 is the total for Conner Vannover (F, 3300). Pace has rendered him essentially unplayable.
Colorado is a hefty 13-point road favorite with a solid 144.5 over/under. The Buffs are 5-2 in Pac-12 play and cannot afford any slip-ups, as they are 2 games back of undefeated UCLA and a game behind Oregon in conference standings. They’ll face a Huskies team that is 0-7 in conference play but did at least compete vs. UCLA last game out. This will be a pace-up game for Colorado, as Washington plays at a top 90 tempo. The 2-3 has been killed by offensive rebounds, so keep that in mind as well.
Everything starts with McKinley Wright (G, 7400), who is priced down over $1k from his last game. He didn’t do much in Colorado’s blowout win at home vs. UW, but Wright should be strongly considered in cash games due to his consistent 30+ DK outputs and he has upside at this price point. Jabari Walker (F, 6600) continues to produce at an incredible rate given his limited playing time. He’s scoring 1.63 fantasy points per minute over the last 3 games, but he’s at his highest price of the season by far. It’s hard to pay $6600 for a player that might play less than 20 minutes regardless of how efficient the stud freshman has been. Then again, I could just be soft.
D’Shawn Schwartz (G/F, 5800) had 2 fouls in the first 3 minutes of last game, leading to reduced playing time. As a result, his price is back down to playable levels. He’s had some spike performances but is best suited for tourneys only. Outside of Walker, Evan Battey (F, 5700) is the team’s best rebounder and has two 30+ DK performances in his last 4, including fairly steady minutes of late. He’s another tourney option against a porous UW zone.
We can throw Jeriah Horne (F, 4900) in the mix here too, as the SF/PF should play 20+ minutes and has some tourney consideration as well. Beyond the volatility these forwards inherently have, 7-footer Dallas Walton (F, 4500) warmed up last game and if he plays, it could reduce some playing time for the other forwards, so something to monitor. Wright is definitely the safe play from the Buffs perspective with everyone else better suited for tourneys despite the plus matchup.
Quade Green (G, 7200) stunk in the first matchup vs. Colorado, but he has 31% shot share, solid assist rates, and he’s at home. We’ve seen 30+ DK efforts 6 times this year, so we know the former UK guard has talent. Erik Stevenson (G, 5500) has played better of late, including double-digit shots in 3 straight. Colorado does defend the 3 at an above average rate, so he’s a shot dependent tourney option. Hameir Wright (F, 5500) has been Hamier Wrong most of the season, but he’s found his groove lately. He is another tourney option at home against a top 15 Colorado D. Jamal Bey (G, 5300) is going to play 30+ minutes and has lived around the 4x range recently despite sub-20% usage in conference play. You could take a shot on some of the cheap Huskie options, but this is a bad team with unpredictable results so proceed cautiously.
Prize Picks – 1/20/21
Aamir Simms
Clemson
OVER 24.6
Not a great expected game script, but the matchup is favorable and he’s capable of getting halfway there with defensive stats alone.
– James
Sahvir Wheeler
Georgia
UK is a good defensive team and newcomer KD Johnson will cut into his usage. I think Sahvir goes UNDER 29.6 tonight.
– Joe
D’Mitrick Trice
Wisconsin
I’m still tilting on how Pinson laid an egg in a game Mizzou scored 81 points, but give me OVER 27.0 on Trice, who is in great form and NW has given up 80+ points in 5 straight.
– Byrd