We have a small 4-game slate today, Bucketheads giving out $3,000 to the first place winner. The slate features a lot of mid-major action as only the Michigan and Purdue match-up features team from power six conferences.
The other 3 games include Marshall at FIU, which should be the highest total on the slate, and two much slower match-ups in Charlotte at FAU and Louisiana Tech at Texas-El Paso. Looks like your boys @CBBDFS have some learning to do. You know we will pass that knowledge on to you so you can win all the money! #LFG
No Prize Picks today, but we’ll have a batch for you all tomorrow before the 11a Saturday slate gets under way. Tonight it is just too much of a crapshoot. Good Luck!
Conference USA is one of the mid-major conference operating in series this year with a team taking on the same opponent twice over a weekend. Tonight Marshall heads to Miami to face Florida International in what should be the most DFS friendly game on the slate. Both teams play at top 50 tempos and take a ton of 3s. Marshall doesn’t go deep into their bench, while FIU will play a lot of guys. KenPom has the Thundering Herd as an 8-point favorite. The total here is projected at over 150.
After back to back loses to Western Kentucky, Marshall will should get right against the Panthers 282nd rated defense. Taevion Kinsey (G/F, 9000) leads their attack averaging 20-6-4 per game. He has been off the floor for a total on one minutes in the last 4 games, so we want him in our lineups if we can make it work.
Guards Jarrod West (8000) and Andrew Taylor (7500) also see significant PT. West sets everything up, while Taylor is in excellent form and brings rebounding upside. In the post Jannson Williams (F, 6300) averages double figures, will block a few shots, and step out for a few 3PT attempts. He is normally flanked by Obinna Anocili-Killen (F, 5200), but he brings foul risk. Mikel Beyers (F, 4500) and Darius George (F, 4300) will get mid-teens minutes in the paint, but they are more GPP “I just want exposure” plays.
FIU’s primary option is Antonio Daye (G, 8700). The junior has a 32% usage rate that is 19th nationally. Their 2nd and 3rd options however each missed last game. We’ll do our best to monitor their status, but updates can be hard to find on mid majors. If they go, Rahshad Davis (F, 7200) could threaten a double-double here, and Eric Lovett (G/F, 5000) will get up double digit shots. In between to the two price wise Tevin Brewer (G, 6100) is playable if one or both miss the game. Probably two expensive if they play.
We mentioned above that the Panthers play a deep bench, so the value reserves will be risky. There are two who are sub 3.5K that each got 20 minutes last game and might be super deep GPP fliers. Petar Krivokapic (G, 3400) has had 7x this price twice earlier in the year; he’s a 3PT specialist. Cameron Corcoran (G, 3200) had a 10x 31 DK back on 12/21. Perhaps only consider if you are desperate.
There are 357 teams that play division one college basketball and Charlotte is playing at the 354th fastest pace. Tonight, the 49ers visit the Owls of Florida Atlantic who play at the 277th fastest tempo. What this means for us is a game in the 120s, but Vegas expects it to be close at least. FAU is a -1 point favorite.
For the visiting snails…err… 49ers Jahmir Young (G, 7300) leads their team with a 26% usage and shot rate. If you have a game with low possessions might as well target the guy who ends 1-in-4 of them. Young plays all the minutes and is averaging 18-6-3 on the season and is viable in both formats. Brice Williams (G/F, 6600) is the team’s second highest price option, but only due to 32 and 27 DK in his last two. He would be a risky play tonight.
Jordan Shepherd (G, 6000) had 48 DK two weeks ago, but followed that with 6 and 13 DK outings. Jhery Matos (G/F, 5700) is in better recent form, but both are better suited as cash plays. Down low we have a couple cheaper options here as Milos Supica (F, 4400) and Anzac Rissetto (F, 3700) will split time at the 5. Prefer Supica of the two.
For the host Owls, Jailyn Ingram (F, 7700) is their alpha. Prior to his last outing, which was poor, Ingram went 34 or more DK in 5 straight. His games seems to be tempo proof, so no need to shy away on that front. After Ingram, Michael Forrest (G, 6200) logs a ton of minutes and has gotten up 27 triples in his last 3 games (hitting 11). Everett Winchester (G, 5700) is an ancillary stat stuffer on the wing.
FAU has four player between 4000-5300, but I can’t in good conscious recommend any due to the pace of this one. All have sub 20% shot shares when they are on the floor and no standout ancillary production. Best to stay with one of the big 3 here if you have to have an Owl. Hootie Hoo!
The Boilermakers are quietly one of the hottest teams in the B1G right now. They’ve won 4 in a row, three on the road, and they host current B1G leader, Michigan. Expect a grind of a game, but on a small slate, we have to make do. The Wolverines are holding teams to 40% from 2 while Purdue gives up 37% of opponents’ points from 3.
Trevion Williams (F, 8100) has a bad matchup against Michigan’s stout and skilled front court. While not a great indicator, it’s probably worth mentioning that he did have a 36 and 20 game against them last season. Obviously, he can rise to the occasion so you can take a gamble in GPP.
Sasha Stefanovic (G/F, 5800) is coming off a couple 4x games. They’ll need his shooting, averaging 26 DK at home. Eric Hunter (G, 5400) is priced back down, he’s playable in cash only. Brandon Newman (G 4900) was completely shut out against OSU, but he’s shown 5x a few times in the B1G this season, so a live GPP play.
The youngster, Jaden Ivey (G, 4500) was the hero against Ohio St, hitting the GW. Still not trustworthy in DFS, but I expect to see his role to continue to expand this season. Just a risky GPP play right now. Hard telling if Zach Edey (F, 4200) will see much action, 4x last couple of games but Michigan’s speed may be too much for the big man.
Franz Wagner (G/F, 8300) gave 22 to Purdue last time he saw them. Tough to say what he’ll do tonight, but I’d expect him to end up around 4x. For GPP, I prefer Isaiah Livers (F, 7900) at a similar price point as Purdue gives up the 3 and he’s scorching the nets right now.
Hunter Dickinson (F, 6700) has hit a bit of a wall as the competition has ramped up. Not a great matchup for him again, but near season low price and capable of 6x. Mike Smith (G, 5600) has a couple 5x games in his last 3. He’ll likely draw Hunter all night, so that’s not great. He’s a risky tournament option. Eli Brooks (G, 4700) returned last game and played 22 minutes. He’s a 4x option assuming he’s 100% healthy.
Louisiana Tech visits UTEP as a slight 2-point favorite with an over/under of 136. They’ll play tonight and again tomorrow night, one of the scheduling quirks of playing during the pandemic. La Tech plays at an above average pace and has held opponents to 45% adjusted FG% defensively. UTEP prefers a more deliberate pace on offense and much less defensive intensity, giving up 53% adjusted FG% defensively. One thing the Miners do successfully on defense is eliminate the 3, as 27% of opposing teams overall shot attempts are from 3, 4th lowest in the nation.
Kalob Ledoux (G/F, 5400) missed last game with an injury, so we’ll keep an eye on his status. With him out, Amorie Archibald (G, 6800), Isaiah Crawford (F, 6400), and JaColby Pemberton (G, 5900) played 30+ minutes. Archibald has back-to-back 30 DK efforts, playing 84% of the minutes in conference play. He feels overpriced given the fact those are his first two games since November he’s exceeded 30 DK. Crawford has 25% usage in conference play and does a bit of everything, while Pemberton is playing extra minutes with Ledoux out of the lineup. He’s got sub-20% usage this year, but that increases a bit if Ledoux is out.
Freshman Kenneth Lofton, Jr. (F, 6000) has the highest shot share on the team and absolutely racks stats while he’s on the court. The problem is he’s only playing 20 minutes a game, as he splits time with Andrew Gordon (F, 4600) at center. Gordon has a couple smash performances along with a few stinkers lately, so he’s a tourney option only. I like Cobe Williams (G, 5100) as a potential cash option. He’s got increased usage, rebounding, and assist rates in conference play and feels like a safe bet for 20+ DK against a soft UTEP D.
Bryson Williams (F, 7000) has the highest usage on the team at 25%. He’s been very volatile on the season, dropping 40 DK one night and 8 DK the next. He’s a tourney option only against a stout La Tech defense. Souley Boum (G, 6900) is a scoring dependent option with limited ancillary production, so he feels really overpriced to me.
Former Sooner Jamal Bienemy (G, 6500) comes at a discount after a couple bad games, but we know he can score from his days at Oklahoma and he had a 3-game stretch of 6x at this price in early January. The rest of the Miners are role players with limited usage. Overall, the metrics were pretty ugly in this game as a whole, so outside of Bienemy and Williams, I feel like this game is full of a bunch of hit or miss tourney options. Best of luck on this short slate tonight. Hopefully you can navigate through some of the mess and come away $3000 richer!!