It’s Thursday and we have our 3rd consecutive day of 7-game slates. This is another hot one with over half of the games with point totals over or around 150. The slate tips with two B1G games as #5 Iowa heads to Maryland, while Indiana goes to #8 Wisconsin. The pace quickens after that with BYU taking on #1 Gonzaga and then #12 Illinois goes up north to battle in-state rival Northwestern. You know the weekend is drawing near when we get some PAC 12 heat, too! This slate closes with 3 games from the Conference of Champions.
While this is our third consecutive Big Jam, this tourney has the highest payout of the week with $5,000 going to first place. Find the plays below and make that winning lineup!
The big news here is that Luka Garza (F, 9800) is at his second lowest price point of the season, after back to back pedestrian (by Garza standards) 35 and 28 DK outings. That said, Luka is still averaging 46.6 DK a game and faces a Maryland team that has given up big games to big men in their last two (Hunter Dickinson 26 points and Trayce Jackson-Davis 22 points). All of this feels like a spot for Garza to make some noise.
Iowa is a -6.5 point road favorite and the over/under here is 154 so let’s see who else there is to target.
Joe Wisekamp (G/F, 7000) has seen his price drop as well after two sub-par games. Prior to that he was 4-5x in the four games prior, so he is firmly in play tonight. Jordan Bohannon (G, 6000) has gone the other direction after two nice games putting him at this highest price point of the season. If you play based on form, Bohannon fits what you like, but I can get the 7 other sub-20 DK games out of my head.
In the paint with Luka Keegan Murray (F, 5200) had a career day last time out boosting his price 1300. He has 20+ minutes in back to back, but I still think he is a 4x option. Jack Nunge (F, 4300) also neared 20 minutes last game, but was limited to just 8 minutes in the prior two. He is a point-per-minute machine (1.115) if he gets time. As for the remaining Hawkeyes there are two to consider. CJ Fredrick (G, 4900) is shot dependent, but plays safe minutes. Connor McCaffrey (G/F, 4100) is still banged up and questionable. We’ll watch his status as it impacts Murray and Nunge’s minutes.
Maryland enters this game 1-4 in the B1G having played the league’s most talented teams to open their season (Illinois is next). Aaron Wiggins (G/F, 7900) has been assertive of late getting double digit shot attempts up in his last 5 games. He’s not the most offensively efficient with those shots, but does provide nice ancillary production to keep his floor high. Eric Ayala (G, 6300) plays every minutes and takes 6 threes a game. He was over 4x in 4 straight prior to a dud versus Rutgers.
Ayala should get a lift with the return of backcourt mate Darryl Morsell (G, 5900), who is expected back from a broken face. Morsell is typically a solid cash play. Donta Scott (F, 7100) will have his work cut out for him on the defensive end, so his streak of games finishing with double figures that ended at 8 games last time out could continue. Finally, Hakim Hart (G, 5300) and Jairus Hamilton (F, 4400) will see less time if Morsell does return. Hart can’t be played if that’s the case, but Hamilton could still get solid run because of the Luka-factor.
Indiana takes a two-game win streak into the Kohl Center. Wisconsin is predictably favored in what should be a low-possession game. Both of these teams are ranked in the top 10 most efficient defensive teams in the country according to KenPom, so we’ll just hit the highlights and core plays.
Trayce Jackson-Davis (F, 9000) is sort of matchup impervious in cash games. He hasn’t missed 4x since the Texas game in early December. He’s coming off 5x vs Maryland, but this is as bad as it gets matchup-wise. Will be tough for him to hit 5x tonight but still very playable.
Race Thompson (F, 6700) has put together 4x/5x in his last two. He’s close to peak price tonight, so I’m looking elsewhere when building tournament rosters. Keep an eye on Armaan Franklin (G, 6700). He left the Maryland game with a foot injury. Rob Phinisee (G, 5100) would be his backup, but I wouldn’t dig super deep to roster him.
Aljami Durham (G/F, 6300) is a little overpriced. Not a great spot for him in a tough matchup, you can likely find better options at that price.
D’Mitrik Trice (G, 7600) has been red hot in B1G play with a 30% usage and 29% shot share. Coming off 3 straight 30+ DK games. He should be able to get loose here if he can stay hot. Micah Potter (F, 6600) finally had a big game against Minnesota hitting close to 6x in 26 minutes. I don’t see minutes increasing and TJD is an elite defender, so he’s a risky GPP play tonight.
Brad Davison (G, 5500) has cooled the last couple of games, going 3x. His price is down $600 which I do like. Indiana can get exposed from beyond the arc, so he’s worth a shot in tournaments. Aleem Ford (F, 6000) has 4x in 3 of last 4. You can continue to look at him in cash games.
With conference play starting it is getting kind of hard to fathom the Zags taking a loss this year in the regular season. The Saint Mary’s rivalry is there, but the Gaels are down this year. San Francisco is better, but the Zags just beat them by 23. Tonight’s game against BYU may be one of their only chances to take a blemish before March Madness. Note – I say that with the Zags playing at home and coming in as -17 point favorites. From a DFS stand-point, the over/under here is a slate high 163 so feel free to stack away, Bucketheads!
So I am tinkering with a player rating system and of the 135 playable options on tonight’s slate Drew Timme (F, 7600), Jalen Suggs (G, 7400) and Corey Kispert (F, 8100) rank 4th, 5th, and 6th of the 135. We know Gonzaga well enough by now, that I don’t have to tell you that all three are in play tonight. Stack a few if you want. Go crazy. Joel Ayayi (G, 8000) comes in at 15th overall and produces a ton of ancillary stats while leading the team in minutes, so add him as another playable piece.
After those 4, Andrew Nembhard (G, 6500) has a safe price for cash games. Anton Watson (F, 4700) is more of a 4x play as well. Neither of these guys will break the slate because of the premier options ahead of them. If you want a dart throw, Oumar Ballo (F, 3000) is a min price guy who gets a little run in every game and they feed baby Shaq when he is on the court. I don’t think getting 12 DK is impossible, but I am not banking on it.
For BYU, Alex Barcello (G, 7300) has been the team’s best player. He’s their leading scorer, assistor, and 2nd best rebounder. With this total where it is, Barcello is definitely in play. If you were wondering he is 19th in the ratings system. After Barcello, Brandon Averette (G, 6000) has a 6x and 7x in his last two. Those games included 22 three point attempts, hitting 7.
Mixing in around the forward spots, Caleb Lohner (F, 4600) and Connor Harding (G/F, 4800) will need to be on their “A” game for the Cougars to have a chance here. Lohner is a rebounder, while Harding another shooter from the wing. At the 5 Matt Haarms (F, 5600) controls the paint and has been solid. The Purdue transfer is no stranger to big games, looking at him won’t Haarms you.
The Illini head to Evanston for an intra-state rivalry game against Northwestern. Illinois are heavy favorites, but this game came down to the wire last year in Champaign. Both teams like to score quickly, so we should get a nice amount of possessions here. Statistically, Illinois should own the boards but Northwestern won the rebound battle last time. The Wildcats will try to get their shooters going in this one.
When Boo Buie (G, 5800) goes, so do the Wildcats. Since going 6x against Sparty, he’s gone 2x/3x/3x/1x. So recent form is clearly bad, however, the one area Illinois has really struggled defending is the high ball screen. Look for Buie in pick-n-pop action with big man Pete Nance (F, 5900). Nance has shown a 5x ceiling a couple times this season. Kofi has struggled guarding stretch fives, so both Buie and Nance are viable GPP plays tonight.
Miller Kopp (F, 6400) is your classic flame-thrower; he’s either hot or not, no real in-between. Illinois guards the three pretty well, so limited upside here. Wm & Mary transfer Chase Audige (G, 6400) leads the team in shot share at 29%. He’s had a solid floor most of the year and should be fine for cash games. Ryan Young (F, 5100) has been super-efficient backing up Nance, but minutes are a concern as he’s only averaging about 15 a game. Anthony Gaines (G, 4000) is a cheap flyer that can spike in tournaments.
Northwestern doesn’t really have anyone that can guard Ayo Dosunmu (G, 9300). He had 21 real points last season, and he could be in store for another nice game tonight. In spite of taking more of a facilitator role vs Purdue last game (2x), he can be considered in all formats.
Kofi Cockburn (F, 8300) has gotten a double-double in 4 of his last 5 games. As with Ayo, the Wildcats don’t really have an answer for him personnel-wise, so they’ll need to deny entry passes and bring double-teams. That could open up opportunities for Illinois shooters as well, but Kofi should be considered in tournaments.
Da’Monte Williams (G, 5400) had 33 DK against Purdue with 10 boards. I don’t see that happening again, so he’s more of a cash option. Trent Frazier (G, 5000) and Adam Miller (G/F, 3800) have been cold as ice lately, but this would be a good game for one to get back on track. Both should be considered GPP darts.
B1G assist leader Andre Curbelo (G, 6200) is still going to come off the bench, but he’s seen a steady increase in minutes this season. You have to wonder if teams will eventually change how they’re guarding him to prevent him easy drives to the basket, but right now, he’s a live tournament option.
Arizona will look to move to 4-1 in conference as a small home favorite with an over/under right around 140. Neither team plays with much pace and USC is holding teams to 40.8% effective field goal percentage defensively, top 10 in the nation. The real question is which version of Evan Mobley will show up…
After terrorizing opponents early, future lottery pick Evan Mobley (F, 7300) gets a $1600 price drop after two straight eggs. As we discussed on the pod, despite strong rebounding and block rates, he doesn’t have alpha usage you’d expect from an elite prospect. He has 40 DK upside at a discount if you think he can snap out of his mini-freshman funk. Older brother Isaiah Mobley (F, 6500) is probably still priced too high given his resume this season. He could sniff 4x but hasn’t shown any ceiling this year somehow.
Tahj Eaddy (G, 6200) is playing 86% of the minutes with 29% shot share and strong assist rates in his two Pac-12 games this season, both of which resulted in 30+ DK. He’s in great form and nothing scary about Arizona defensively. Drew Peterson (G/F, 5800) is more of a boom or bust GPP option. He’s coming off his best game of the year, but he has the lowest shot share of the 4 key Trojans and drastic variance in game logs. If desperate, you could take a look at Chevez Goodwin (F, 4500), who actually has 4x+ in 4 straight games despite only playing around 20 minutes per game.
James Akinjo (G, 7800) is going to play mid-30s minutes, have the ball in his hands, and has decent assist rates. I don’t love his price, but he can be considered in GPPs as he’s scored over 35 DK in 2 of 4 Pac-12 games this season. Jemarl Baker, Jr. (G, 6100) best attribute is the fact that he plays consistent minutes on a team that plays a deep bench. He does have a couple spike games, but in general he’s more of a 4x type player.
Azoulas Tubelis (F, 6100) has seen increased minutes in Pac-12 play and is involved when he’s on the floor. He also has at least 6 boards in 6 straight games. The Wildcats deep post rotation really limits his ability to smash, but he’s flirted with double-doubles recently so 4x is in play against the massive front line of USC. Bennedict Mathurin (G/F, 5800) dropped a 40-burger last game and was rewarded with a $1300 price increase. A lot of that production was driven by double overtime, so I’m a little wary, as he hasn’t exceeded 25 minutes in any other games this year. He’s a tourney option only for me.
It’s crazy to see Jordan Brown (F, 5500) down at this price, but he’s only playing half the minutes, if that. In theory he’d be a great weapon to match up with the Mobley’s down low. Terrell Brown, Jr. (G, 5500) has stepped up recently as a scoring dependent guard, which fits his profile as a scorer coming out of Seattle as a transfer. I think there are better options in the mid-5s than both of the Browns, but they are at least worthy of a mention. The Wildcat depth makes it really hard to trust any of these options in cash lineups.
With by far the lowest over/under on the slate, let’s get through this one quickly folks. I’m not even going to use team logos to shame their weaksauce point total. Washington St. is top 5 in effective FG% defensively and Cal plays at a snail’s pace. Cal plays no defense and gets torched from beyond the arc, so ball hog Issac Bonton (G, 7700) is fully in play. Efe Abogidi (F, 7500) has been a double-double machine with block upside of late and even though the Cougar frontcourt is getting healthy, he has to be considered given his recent heater. If you think Bonton might pass up a couple of shots, Noah Williams (G, 6100) could be in line for a bounce back, but odds are Bonton will continue to limit his usage.
Matt Bradley was in crutches recently and Grant Anticevich appendix ruptured, so I don’t expect either of them to play. Andre Kelly (F, 5400) should play around 30 minutes as the primary post option. Makale Foreman (G, 4600) has 29% shot share in conference play and a secure role before the Braley injury. I expect him to take a lot of shots tonight. Finally, Fresno St transfer Jarred Hyder (G, 4100) is eligible and coming off his best game of the year. He has 27% usage in limited time and with Bradley out, he should see more minutes as the Bears will need more scoring punch without their best player.
Arizona State hasn’t played since Dec. 16th in what will be an incredibly interesting contrast of styles. The Sun Devils will play as fast as possible, while UCLA plays at one of the slowest tempos in the nation. With an over/under above 150 and tight line, we certainly want some exposure here.
With Chris Smith out for the season, UCLA has 6 key rotational players. Tygar Campbell (G, 7100) has been fantastic this season and could see a slight bump in usage with Smith out. He’s a steady cash game option in a pace up game. Jaime Jacquez, Jr. (G/F, 6400) and Jules Bernard (G/F, 5700) should benefit the most from Smith’s absence. I think they both have 30 DK upside tonight. Jalen Hill (F, 5300) and Cody Riley (F, 4500) continue to cannabilize each other down low, while Johnny Juzang (G, 4500) is a GPP option as a guy who might take 10+ shots in a pace up game against a team that could care less about defense.
You could have won a massive amount of money from me if you would bet that Remy Martin (G, 6600) would be the 3rd highest priced player for the Sun Devils in early Jan, but here we are. I’m playing him at this price. You win again DraftKings.
Stud freshman Josh Christopher (G, 7200) and ball hoggy Alonzo Verge, Jr. (G/F, 6900) both have 29% shot share, which is the primary reason for Martin’s decrease in price. Both are in play as GPP options given their infinite green light to rack up shots at will. One positive of the long break for the Sun Devils is Marcus Bagley (F, 5700) is fully healthy. He was sitting around 25 DK per game prior to his injury and 4x seems like a fair expectation again tonight. You’ll have to find a 5-sided coin to guess who will play well out of the reserves for ASU but let me know if you find one because that could come in handy in the future.
Prize Picks – 1/7/21
Drew Timme
Gonzaga
On the year Timme averages 18-7-2 so he is at 27+ right there. Against BYU in what should be competitive at least for a while, Timme should go OVER 30.0.
– Joe
Eric Ayala
Maryland
This will be a pace-up game at home against a soft defense. Wish he had higher usage but will play all game. OVER 23
– James
Jamie Jacquez, Jr.
UCLA
JJJ does a bit of everything and with Chris Smith out, I’d expect his usage to increase a bit. In a pace up game, I like the OVER 26.4.
– Byrd