Hey, it’s Friday, time to ignore the problems of the world and lock into some mid-major college basketball! DraftKings is giving us a little appetizer before the weekend, but what makes this hors d’oeuvre nice is the bite-sized $5 entry fee! So if you’re just dipping your toe into DFS or would rather spend your dough on a sixer and pizza, this is the tournament for you!
We have one B1G game to grind through naturally, but we also have a scorcher between Bowling Green and Buffalo with an expected combined score of 164. You might see some new names tonight, but trust us, there are some big time producers on this slate. As always, good luck Bucketheads. Let’s take this thing down and win all the money!!
We’ve got some red hot MACtion to open the slate with 5-1 Bowling Green heading to 3-1 Buffalo. Both teams like to get up and down the court, with Buffalo continuing the Nate Oats tradition and playing at the 13th fastest tempo in the nation. These two teams squared off in early December with Bowling Green getting a decisive 86-78 win at home, but Vegas likes Buffalo by 5 tonight with another high scoring total expected, currently sitting at an over/under of 163. This is by far the highest over/under on the slate, so let’s check this flamethrower matchup out further.
For Bowling Green, Justin Turner (G, 7900) is the main event for this team. He’s got 30% shot share, top 100 assist rates, and will play all the minutes. He scored 45 DK points on Buffalo in their first matchup despite going 3-11 from the field. Making all 15 FTs helped the cause. He’ll be high owned tonight and for good reason. Daeqwon Plowden (G/F, 6900) has sub-20s usage, but is a bulldozer on the boards. He has double digit rebound upside every night, but his scoring chances will determine if he hits value or not.
Kaden Matheny (G, 5500) is a combo guard that is playing steady minutes, but his metrics don’t overwhelm you. He’ll probably need a 2 or 3 steal game to hit value, but he has hit 4x in 3 of his last 5. Caleb Fields (G, 4800) has lower usage than Matheny, but he gets involved in more of the ancillary stats and has shown 5x upside. He’s a boom or bust GPP option to get some cheap exposure in this game. Trey Diggs (G/F, 4500) has seen decreased minutes lately, failing to hit 20 DK in 3 straight. He is somewhat of a 3-point specialist, but Buffalo is holding teams to 26% 3-point shooting, which makes him a high-risk play.
The Frenchman Josh Mballa (F, 8400) has played over 30 minutes in 3 straight, averaging 20 points and 12 boards over that stretch. Having a 19 point, 19 board game helps the cause. He can do a bit of everything and I think his price is fair. Jayvon Graves (G, 8300) plays the most minutes, has 27% shot share, and fills up the ancillary stats, including the highest steal upside of the big 3. Finally, Jeenathan Williams (G, 8200) has the highest shot share and usage of this group, elite rebounding rates, and even sprinkles in some assists, steals, and blocks. He’s in great form as well, coming off a monster 25 point/14 rebound night. They are all fully in play in all formats tonight.
It’s truly amazing how many shots this team gets up in a game. Ronaldo Segu (G, 6000) is getting up double digit shots per game and sprinkles in a couple rebounds and assists per game. Keishawn Brewton (G, 4400) has seen more minutes recently, but is yet to hit 20 DK in a game on the season. Brewton and the rest of the Bulls are more rotational role players, so I think they are risky tourney options only. Grab a couple beers tonight and tune into CBS Sports Network, as this game should be a DFS delight!!
Duquense heads to St. Bonaventure, NY to face the 5-1 Bonnies. The home team is an 8.5 home favorite with a somewhat boring 136 over/under. Both teams are in the 200s in tempo, while the Dukes have been the Pukes offensively, 286th in adjusted offensive efficiency. I guess that’s why the 5 highest priced players from this game are Bonnies, which I’m not sure I’ve ever seen in a conference game.
Sincere Carry told the Dukes to sincerely F off, transferring to in-conference Kent St., which should make for some interesting matchups in the future. That leaves Marcus Weathers (F, 6200) as the primary scoring option. Weathers had 28% usage prior to Carry leaving, so he should continue to be the primary offensive weapon here. Michael Hughes (F, 5900) is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He’s only shooting 44% from the field, so he’s offensively limited. He’s your classic boom or bust option.
Tavian Dunn-Martin (G, 5700) has played 35 minutes in both games without Carry. He’s taken a lot of shots and has decent assist rates, but his efficiency has been lacking. He’s probably a lower floor option that you hope gets 4x tonight. Toby Okani (G, 5000) is a 6’7 freshman that will see more minutes and the Dukes build for the future, along with 6’7 freshman Chad Baker (G, 4000). Both are high risk punt plays as unproven options you are going to get some great on the job training the rest of this season.
Jaren Holmes (G/F, 8500) is by far the team’s usage and shot share leader and is coming in hot, with a 40 burger last game and ridiculous 60 burger two games ago. Before those explosions, he hadn’t hit 30 DK in a game. I prefer the Buffalo options at this price point, but he’ll have lower ownership if you are into contrarian plays and think he can stay hot. Osun Osunniyi (F, 7000) is a much steadier option, averaging almost a double-double on the season. The Dukes below average in height, so the 6’10 Double O should have his way on the boards tonight.
Kyle Lofton (G, 6800) is 9th in the country in minutes played this season. Somehow, he’s an 84% free throw shooter, but shooting 11% from 3. He’s shot 33% from deep for his career coming into the season, so maybe he’ll get some positive regression soon, as he’ll likely approach double digit shots in this game. Jalen Adaway (G/F, 6800) has 15% usage on the season, which is low, but he’s top 10 in the nation in offensive efficiency so he’s making the most of his limited attempts. He feels a bit overpriced for his role and that price is largely impacted by one spike game. Finally, Dominick Welch (G, 6600) plays steady minutes and gets involved across the board. He feels like a pretty safe 4x type option given his ability to do a bit of everything.
Friday we have Conference USA clash between the UTEP Miners and the Mean Green of North Texas. This game is one of two back-to-back match-ups in Denton. UNT has won three of the last four in this series and Vegas has the hosts -6 point favorites tonight. The over under here is a slate low 132.5 so plays from this one should be limited.
Speaking of limited, UTEP limits playing time for people that aren’t their starters ranking 342nd in bench minutes. Essentially 4 player log 32+ minutes per game. While Tydus Verhoever (F, 5500) and Christian Agnew (G, 4600) combine to be that 5th starter.
Jamal Bieniemy (G, 7300) and Souley Boun (G, 7000) man the backcourt and each have 20+ usage and shot rates. Boun is the better scorer of the two, but Bieniemy has one of the better assist rates on the slate. Bryson Williams (F, 7300) and Keonte Kennedy (G/F, 5400) play the power and small forwards. Williams has 3 40-burgers this year, including one last Friday. In that same game Kennedy went for 45 DK, but he typically finishes under 4x value.
For North Texas, point guard Javion Hamlet (7100) is definitely in play. His 27.6% usage 4th highest on the slate amongst anyone getting over 30 mpg. He’s not much of a shooter, but does dole out 5.5 assist per game keeping his floor high. To be honest after Hamlet the options are less inspiring. James Reese (G/F, 6300) will play close to the whole game and is a decent cash option. Thomas Bell (F, 6100) is another cash play who is a consistent rebounder.
Zach Simmons (F, 5300) would be a GPP dart given his game logs. Same could be said for shooter Mardez McBride (G, 4900) and Rubin Jones (G, 4300). Again with this total just 132.5, I can’t see more than one play from this game. Hamlet a little safer, but Boun has more upside. Any same-team stack just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Don’t look now, but Rutgers has dropped 4 of their last 5 including 2 at home. They desperately want to right the ship tonight as they host the Badgers. Wisconsin, meanwhile, dropped one to Maryland at home, barely edged double-OT vs Indiana, and got destroyed by Michigan. Expect a tight game, with Rutgers shooters having an edge as well as the Badger bigs.
Part of Rutgers’ woes has to do with the decline in production of Ron Harper Jr (G/F, 7800). He hasn’t hit 4x in the last 5 games. His shot attempts are down, and he’s shooting below his average from 3 in that span. While possessions will be limited, I actually like him in this spot; priced down $1300 from 3 games ago and 29% shot share.
Jacob Young (G, 7200) is leading the Scarlet Knights in usage at 26%. Obviously a tough matchup, but he’s priced about right. Myles Johnson (F, 6700) is on the same trajectory as Harper, really struggling in the heart of B1G play. Unfortunately, we’re not seeing much price relief with him, so he’s risky tonight. Geo Baker (G, 6100) must have fallen into the Raritan River, because he’s ice cold all of the sudden. He’s a proven scorer so always a chance, but this seems like a tough game to bounce back.
Montez Mathis (G/F, 5200) has been invisible the last couple of games as well. He’s well below his season-low price however, and this is a matchup he could get hot in, so I don’t mind him in tournaments. Caleb McConnell (G, 3800) is seeing an increase in mins and production since returning from injury three games ago; 6x last game in 23 mins and still priced reasonably.
D’Mitrik Trice (G, 7400) has been remarkably consistent, even as the team has struggled. He doesn’t lead the team in usage or shot share, but he has a 117 ORtg. He’s also been playing better on the road. The price hike is unnerving, but a solid all-around play on a small-ish slate.
If the Badgers want to win this game, they will need more from their big men, Micah Potter (F, 6400), Aleem Ford (F, 5100), and Nate Reuvers (F, 4500). They’re all priced down so that’s good. Potter has the biggest ceiling, Ford is probably the safest cash play, and Reuvers…who knows? Nate had 6 DK against Michigan. The only thing attractive about him is his rock bottom price.
Brad Davison (G, 4700) has been playing so poorly, that I’m not even going to make a nut-punch joke about him. Not even anything about Rutgers players getting racked at the RAC.
The Bulldogs and Wolfpack go head-to-head to close out our slate with Mountain West play. Fresno State will want to slow the tempo, while Nevada would prefer to play with more pace. Nevada has won the last 6 meetings and come in as 6-point favorites at home. The over under here is just 136, so be selective when grabbing guys for that late night heat.
Orlando Robinson (F, 9500) is the Price King tonight and rightfully so. The 7-0 sophomore has double doubles in 6-of-8 games this year. Nevada does defend the two pretty well, so things won’t come easy, but he should be a safe cash.
After Robinson, Jordan Campbell (G, 6300) is the next highest priced Bulldog. Campbell is coming off 6x and 4x outings, but has done very little in other games this year. Fade him. Deon Stroud (G/F, 5600) is a better option in my opinion because of his 33.9% usage and 34.9% shot share. Stroud is an energizer off the bench, so be mindful that he’s probably only playing 20 minutes or so.
Isaiah Hill (G, 5100) logs the second most minutes on the team and is a pretty steady performer, but hasn’t flashed upside. The rest of Fresno State options are getting minutes in the low teens so hard to trust.
Nevada has two studs that I expect will be pretty highly owned. Grant Sherfield (G, 8800) has gone 5x this price in two of his last three. His ancillary production makes him a rare safe GPP option. Desmond Cambridge (G, 7500) has scored at least 15 real points in 7-of-8. He has a gaudy 34.7% shot share that is fun to play.
After those two guards, four forwards come in between 4300-4900 for Nevada. Tre Coleman (4300) plays the most minutes and Robby Robinson (4400) is coming off a 28 DK game. Zane Meeks (4700) and KJ Hymes (4900) each have 21% usage when on the floor. Expect all four to take turns on Orlando with Warren Washington (F, 3800), the Wolfpack’s 7-0 footer getting a turn too. The group doesn’t do enough offensively to be considered in cash games, but each in their own right have GPP merit.
Good luck tonight, Bucketheads! Win all the money!
Prize Picks – 1/15/21
Orlando Robinson
Fresno State
The best 7-footer no one has heard of will go OVER 35.5 DK tonight. Robinson has 6 double doubles in 8 games and is the DK price king at 9500.
– Joe
Darius McGhee
Liberty
Stetson is bad defensively, only averaging 15 seconds per defensive possession (#4). McGhee has 25% usage and 30% shot share which is why I think he’s a shoo-in to go OVER 24.5
– James
D’Mitrick Trice
Wisconsin
Trice has over 30 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and Rutgers has given up over 70 points at home in 3 straight games. If he can fall into a steal or two, he should be in great shape to go OVER 25.5
– Byrd