A new week is here and DraftKings has a nice little tourney for us to wet our beaks prior to a featured Mid-Jan Jumper that is going off tomorrow. The Tuesday tourney that celebrates the end of college football and DK’s “push” of college basketball is set to award $15K to first place, but we don’t want to put the cart ahead of the horse.
Tonight we have $2,000 on the line in a small but diverse 3-game slate. While much of the nation will be focusing on Alabama versus Ohio State, we will be closely monitoring Boise State versus Wyoming and the juicy 149 total that concludes our evening. Plays from this game will surely separate the ones who cash from the ones who don’t. Those who start off slow with plays from Colorado and Utah or Connecticut at DePaul can surely finish with a bang with the Broncos and Cowboys. Those who start off hot, probably from the plays recommended below, well all you’ll have left to do is win all the money!
We’ve got a mild version of Pac-12 heat with Colorado heading to Utah, as this is the lowest over/under of the 3-game slate. Utah is coming off 3-straight Pac-12 losses but was very live against a solid Oregon team on Saturday night. Colorado is 2-2 in conference play and needs this road win to build their resume for tourney time. Colorado is the best free throw shooting team in the country, so that’s cool, I guess.
McKinley Wright (G, 8600) is the price king and is coming off his best game of the season. Utah is not good defensively, so he’s a safe 4x type option. Evan Battey (F, 6200) is also coming off his best game of the year, but he’s generally more of a 20 DK type guy, so his $1300 price increase is too much for me. I have similar feelings about Jeriah Horne (F, 6000). He is going to play 30+ minutes again tonight with Walton out, so he’s in play but not someone I’m going to brag about getting in my lineup, especially with the balanced approach the Buffs utilize. D’Shawn Schwartz (G/F, 5600) is going to play in the low 30s minutes, but his sub-20% usage and “role player” distinction on Kenpom make him a 4x option only. Eli Parquet (G, 4000) has single digit usage, which is really bad, but he’s going to play a ton of minutes if you are desperado.
Timmy Allen (F, 8100) was fired up on Saturday, playing with passion and edge. He’s Utah’s best player in a must win game at home with increased usage, rebounding, and assist rates in conference play so he’s a safe option tonight at a fair price. Alfonso Plummer (G, 6000) is generally a solid GPP play, but he’s seen decreased minutes of late because of the emergence of Pelle Larsson (G, 4800). Our Bucketheads have heard me talk about Larsson several times this year and he’s finally getting the minutes, including a 28 DK effort in his first start Saturday. He’s a really fun freshman to watch and should be high owned on the short slate.
Utah’s also moved away from the 3-man rotation down low, with Mikael Jantunen (F, 5700) playing over 30 minutes in back-to-back games. He doesn’t provide any block or steal upside, but at least he’s on the court a ton and he’s taken 23 shots over the last 2 games. Rylan Jones (G, 5400) remains a low ceiling play as a solid real-life PG, but typically maxes out at or below 4x. You could take a flyer on Riley Battin (F, 4100) given the short slate, as he’ll probably play mid-20s minutes and has a few 4x efforts at this price.
These two teams hooked up 12 days ago, and it was DePaul who did the walk of shame home from Storrs after a 21-point loss. Tonight, the Huskies go for round 2 in Chicago. Vegas has Connecticut as a 5.5 favorite and the over/under sits at 140. The total reached 143 in the first meeting.
For UConn, we are going to monitor the status of James Bouknight (G, 8300) like a hawk, prior to the 5:00 CST tip. The lead guard has been dealing with a hyper extended elbow and is considered day-to-day. He missed the team’s last game against Butler. In his absence Tyler Polley (F, 5300) and Tyrese Martin (G, 6800) led the way.
Polley has been on an absolute heater since missing some time due to COVID protocols. He has 19 and 23 real points in his last two so even if Bouknight goes, he is in play in all formats. Martin is a rebounding wing pulling down 8.5 per game which keeps his floor high, but isn’t a natural scorer in the offense. To me, R.J. Cole (G, 5700) for $1100 less might be a better choice in Bouknight misses, but he will have his hands full defensively with DePaul’s ball-hoggy point guard.
Down low, Isaiah Whaley (F, 7100) has had two 40 burgers this year, but is a GPP only play. Josh Carlton (F, 4600) has 11 and 10 in the first meeting, but played only 9 minutes last game. That is partially due to the return of Akok Akok (F, 3100), the dartiest of dart throws tonight. Akok was an emerging Husky last year before tearing his Achilles. He has worked his way back and got his first action (6 minutes) last game. He looked out of game shape on the floor, and UConn will bring him along slowly, but at near minimum price perhaps you are willing to take that shot.
DePaul has started out 0-3 in Big East play and as James pointed out on our YouTube video Saturday being 33rd in tempo but 244th in opponent FG% isn’t a good combo. Every team has eclipsed 70 points this year, so they will need to score to keep this one close. Charlie Moore (G, 7000), the ball-hoggy one referenced above, is at a season low price point do to current shooting form of 29% from the field in his last two. With 26% usage though he is still in play especially at reduced cost. Javon Freeman-Liberty (G, 8000) is second on the team in usage and shot share. He also provides nice ancillary production for the Blue Demons. The cost is high, but on a small slate he could get to 4x.
After those two DePaul gets a little unpredictable. With just 4 games under their belt, they have had 4 different guys as leading scorers. They are playing 9 guys at least 10 minutes per game and the busiest rotation for Dave Leitao has been in the post. Romeo Weems (F, 6600) has the highest basketball IQ, but has been up and down in 3 games. Nick Ongenda (F, 5100) probably has the rawest talent, brings block upside, and had 24DK in the first meeting. Darious Hall (F, 4800) has 27DK in the first meeting, but hasn’t cracked 16 in any other. Finally, Pauly Paulicap (F, 4300) has been productive when on the floor but only gets around 18 minutes per game. Yes, you could have a Pauly-Pauli vs. Akok Akok stack, which is just fun, but probably not practical. I’d rank the forwards Ongenda, Weems, Paulicap, and then Hall.
I like the over here, but can’t bet it on DraftKings sportsbook because in-state collegiate gambling on local teams is blocked. DePaul plays loose and fast and UConn is far superior at this point with or without Bouknight. I think this is closer than the first meeting since the Blue Demons are at home, but give me UConn -5.5 as well.
The Broncos of Boise St head to Laramie to kick off a pair of games against Wyoming. Boise State’s lone loss came at the beginning of the season against Houston. The Cowboys are 7-2, their best win is against #136 Oregon St. Boise St should have a decisive advantage on the boards but downgrade Broncos shooters as the Cowboys only allow 28% 3PA/FGA (#8).
The highest priced player for the Broncos is Sr. Abu Kigab (F, 7800). He just got back from the burger joint, putting up 52 DK against Air Force. He took 20 shots however, way above his normal 21% shot share. I like his rebounding upside but he’s likely overpriced for tournaments.
The other Senior, Derrick Alston Jr (G/F, 7700) leads the team in shot share at 23.8%. He hasn’t scored below 4x at that price all season, so clear cash game target. While the Cowboys will limit 3pt opportunities, his ability as a playmaker gives him some GPP pop as well.
Marcus Shaver (G, 7400) is shooting 46% from 3 and leads the team in usage (24%). He hasn’t shown a 5x ceiling at that price, so I’m probably off him in this one in GPP. Emmanuel Akot (G/F, 4700) is dealing with a sore achilles, but if he goes, he isn’t a bad tournament play, 7x a couple times this year. PG Rayj Dennis (G, 4400) is a decent flyer as well in spite of a poor showing vs Air Force. He plays 30 mpg and 118 ORtg. For rock bottom pricing, you can look at Arizona transfer Devonaire Doutrive (G, 3500) in tournaments. He debuted against Air Force, not doing a whole lot yet but playing 20 mpg.
The Cowboys feature a couple Hunters in their front court. Point-forward, Hunter Maldonado (G/F, 7600) is the one you want to target in GPP. He has a 26% usage (30% Assist Rate!) and has had multiple 40 and 50 DK games this season. Had a couple of duds against Fresno, so some risk. Stretch-5, Hunter Thompson (F, 5000) is oddly shot-dependent, he has a couple 7x games but some real stinkers like 6 DK vs Fresno his last game. Boise St is only allowing teams to shoot 29% from 3.
Like Maldonado, Marcus Williams (G, 7200) should be looked at in tournaments. He has a 28% usage and flashed 6x 3 different times this season. Kwane Marble (G, 6400) is overpriced but seeing an increase in minutes in spite of not starting. He played 31 minutes last game but he’s only shown 4x one time at that price.
The rest are playable GPP darts on the small slate but Boise St is ranked #299 in defensive average possession length and a plus rebounding team which will limit offensive opportunities for the Cowboys.
