Overall I think CBB has gone pretty well in the midst of a pandemic. Sure it has been a while since we have seen South Carolina or Villanova on a slate, but overall the game has moved on and programs are coming back online daily. DK has done a fair job managing the cancellations, but Thursday, after the slate dropped a couple of cancellations caught them by surprise.
This originally was a 5-game slate and we already have two games postponed. Iowa and Michigan State was set to be the feature match-up until and it was cut. Then, the Houston at South Florida showdown was cut minutes after the slate dropped. This leaves us with Purdue and Indiana as well as two PAC 12 match-ups featuring Washington at USC and Arizona at Oregon State.
At least we have a tourney, and you know your boys @CBB_DFS are going to write it up. Dive in and win all the money. Better days are in front of us Bucketheads. Stay smart, safe and healthy!
The Boilermakers travel to Bloomington for an intrastate showdown with the rival Hoosiers. These are the 2 slowest paced teams in the B1G after Wisconsin, so don’t expect a lot of fireworks. Purdue should have a slight edge on the boards. Indiana only holding teams to 37% from the arc, so Purdue shooters may have an edge. The Boilermakers are elite at icing their opponents at the free throw line, holding teams to 64%. Miss it Noonan! Miss!
With two cancellations already as of this writing, the elite plays are slim. Trayce Jackson-Davis (F, 9700) is seldom a bad one though. He’s had 2 5x games in the last 3. TJD is impervious to matchups, so play him.
Aljami Durham (G/F, 6700) is at peak price. Nothing scary about the matchup though but probably a better cash play. Armaan Franklin (G, 6100) will be a GTD, so keep your Twitter fingers loose. He’s a live GPP play if he can go full speed. If he can’t, then it’s an easy pivot over to Rob Phinisee (G, 5100) who’s filling in at max minutes; 4x/6x in last two without Franklin.
Race Thompson (F, 6400) is hit or miss, nothing jumps out here, but he’s a GPP option on a suddenly small slate. Jerome Hunter (F, 4600) has been getting some more tick of late so he’s another GPP option as well.
You sort of know what you’re signing up for with Trevion Williams (F, 8600) at this point. He might completely smashburger, or he might catch two quick fouls and spend half the game on the bench. He’s been solid of late with two 40 DK games in last 3. Horrid last year in Assembly Hall though, so stick to GPP and hope for a reversal of fortune.
Decent matchup for Eric Hunter (G, 5700). He’s shooting terrible of late so at near low watermark in pricing. He’s someone I would take a gamble with, in tournaments. We’ve talked for two seasons about Sasha Stefanovic’s (G/F, 5500) awful road splits. This is Purdue’s fourth consecutive road game, and he’s rock bottom pricing now, so maybe pull the trigger?
The rest of the Boilermakers…woof. Maybe take a shot with the youngsters Jaden Ivey (G, 4200) or goliath Zach Edey (F, 3900). Ivey has a 31% shot share and Edey a 30% usage. Of course, Brandon Newman (G, 4900) will play minutes, somewhere between 20-30. Good luck!
One of the worst power 5 basketball teams in the nation head to USC for a Pac-12 battle that has an over/under just below 140. The Huskies are 303rd in effective FG%, give up a ton of offensive rebounds, and generally have no identity through 10 games this season. USC is coming off an ugly overtime win against UC Riverside, but Vegas expects a bounce back here as 14-point home favorites.
In desperation mode early and often, the Huskies have tinkered with their lineups all season so hard to feel fully confident in anyone not named Quade Green (G, 7100). The former UK transfer is playing 86% of the minutes in conference play with 31% shot share overall and a high possession and assist rates. I think his price is fair, especially given how small this slate has turned into. Erik Stevenson (G, 6400) is coming off a 40-burger, but hadn’t played more than 30 minutes in a game since Dec. 1st and hasn’t exceeded 16 DK in any game prior to this smashburger. He has solid pedigree as a double-digit scorer at Wichita St., but certainly a tourney option only given his one-game sample size of success.
Hameir Wright (F, 4900) is, in theory, their 2nd best player left on the roster, but he’s struggled all season long. Nate Roberts (F, 4700) will start at the 5, but same story as Wright with a consistent lack of production from both post men. We played some Jamal Bey (G/F, 4700) last year and Hopkins has given him over 30 minutes in back-to-back games, resulting in mid 20s DK points. He’s generally a low usage guy, but he’s seen the most consistent minutes lately and shouldn’t hurt your lineup at this price point.
As mentioned above, the Huskies 2-3 zone gives up a ton of offensive rebounds, so give the Mobley brothers a bump. Evan Mobley (F, 8900) has broken through the freshmen wall with two 40 burgers and 50 burger over his last 3. His price is back up, but he’s a top 3 NBA pick in a favorable matchup. Older brother Isaiah Mobley (F, 5700) is starting to believe as well, playing his best basketball of late. He’s a slightly better rebounder than his brother and should clean up on the glass tonight. Expect high ownership here.
The good news about Drew Peterson (G/F, 7600) is he’s been very steady of late, hovering right around 30 DK over his last 4. His minutes, assists, and block rates are up in conference play despite being a generally lower usage player. The bad news is his price has skyrocketed to a season high, which really hurts his upside. Peterson and Tahj Eaddy (G, 5800) should get a bunch of clean looks against the 2-3 zone as the primary marksmen for the Trojans. Eaddy’s playing 30+ minutes every game, has 25% usage in conference play, and is priced to play. Isaiah White (G, 5900) has been incredibly efficient in conference play and gets good minutes as a 6’7 SF that can grab some offensive rebounds, but he’s a tourney option only given his variance game to game and lowest offensive usage of the starters.
The Wildcats head to Corvallis to face a really slow-paced Beavers team. Vegas has Arizona as 8-point road favorites with an over/under around 140.5. Give me the under in this one, as I could see a sloppy game to end the night.
For Arizona, we’ll see how they adjust to life with Jermal Baker, Jr., who is out for the season. This should lead to increased usage for James Akinjo (G, 7300) and Azuolas Tubelis (F, 7500). Akinjo has shown a few ceiling games lately and is probably priced fairly given the 3-game slate we are working with now. Tubelis has taken the reigns as the Wildcats starting center. He has 26% usage in conference play and solid rebounding rates, but with this success comes his highest price point of the season.
I’d guess Bennedict Mathurin (G/F, 6400) and Terrell Brown, Jr. (G, 5400) see increased minutes with Baker out. Mathurin has shown a GPP winning ceiling but is more of a boom or bust tourney option at this price. Brown is a natural scorer who should have an easier time hitting 4x value at the price point. He’s coming off an ugly shooting performance last game, but he was a 20 ppg scorer at Seattle, so he knows how to put the ball in the basket.
I don’t play Jordan Brown (F, 5200) anymore. He’s a former 5-star and looks like a man among boys on the court, but rarely plays like an alpha. At least his price is down, so that’s cool. With Baker out, freshman Dalen Terry (G/F, 3700) could be in line for more minutes as well, especially if Sean Miller wants to start building towards the future. They already put a self-imposed ban on this season, so winning now doesn’t seem as important as it once was for Arizona.
It’s weird not to see Ethan Thompson (G, 6800) as the highest price Beaver, but Warith Alatishe (F, 7700) takes that honor. War Machine (if this isn’t his nickname, it should be) is averaging almost a double-double despite rarely playing 30 minutes. He’s an incredible offensive rebounder and shot blocker with steal upside. Statistically, AZ rebounds and guards inside the arc well, so it doesn’t profile as a great game setting for Alatishe so he’s best suited for tourneys only. We are getting a massive discount on Ethan Thompson, who is a cash game lock and strong play in all formats. I am terrible at the ownership guessing game, but it should be super high.
Jarod Lucas (G, 6200) has the greenest of green lights to shoot the rock, but is incredibly scoring dependent, as he does next to nothing besides shoot the ball. Coach Tinkle has tinkered with starting lineups recently, but Gianni Hunt (G, 4800) is getting more playing time as the Beavers prefer more ball handlers on the court. He’s responded with 5x/4x over his last 2. Zach Reichle (G, 5900) has seen significantly reduced playing time of late while Maurice Calloo (F, 4100) hasn’t hit value since early December. While I normally have a great pulse for Pac-12 heat, I’m still shook from my misread of the Colorado/Utah game earlier this week. There is nothing more tilting than seeing a game go the opposite of what you expect, but that’s why they play the games. Trust your guy tonight Bucketheads and we hope to see you win ALL THE MONEY!!
Prize Picks – 1/14/21
Quade Green
Washington
Green soaks up all the usage for the Huskies and his form is solid. If he can get a couple steals, he should cruise OVER 24.5.
– Byrd
Evan Mobley
USC
Swing the big bat – Mobley goes OVER 37.5. The Huskies are 338th in OREB% and Mobley leads the team in minutes and usage. He is also 25th nationally in block rate.
– James
Drew Timme
Gonzaga
Zags are going to smash per the norm in league play. Tonight’s victim, Pepperdine, is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. Timme threatens a double double and goes OVER 29.5.
– Joe