Although Groundhog’s day is over, from a DFS content provider perspective, this time of year becomes a bit of Groundhog’s day for your boys @cbb_dfs. At this point, you’ve got a good feel for the teams and players and from our perspective, there are only so many ways to talk about the same teams/players over and over. It really comes down to price and injury/COVID news at this point in the season. Keep targeting those players who have proven track records of success but might be priced down a bit (see Wiggins from Maryland yesterday). Keep your eyes peeled pre-lock for late breaking news, as that is the best way to identify value at this point in the season (see Josh LeBlanc, Sr. tonight). Keep targeting those high over/under games, which have more possessions, meaning more opportunities to score DFS points. Continue to watch as many games as possible and enjoy every minute of college basketball season. And most importantly, win all the damn money tonight Bucketheads!! Best of luck today, tomorrow, and always.
#14 Virginia @ N.C. State
Good news for Virginia, the Wolfpack are terrible on D, play fast, and have a couple key injuries. Jay Huff (F, 8400) should be targeted in GPP, matchup is strong. Sam Hauser (F, 7600) might not hit 7 3s in this one but very playable at the reduced cost. Trey Murphy (G/F, 5800) is a bit hit or miss but 6x 2 games ago vs Cuse, could be a similar matchup here. Kihei Clark (G, 5300) can be used in cash. Reece Beekman (G, 4800) is coming off a stinker, but should be targeted with the price drop, could easily hit 5x here.
DJ Funderburk (F, 5900) violated “policies”, so he’s questionable. If he’s out again, Manny Bates (F, 7500) is there. Coming off 47 DK, his price jumped $2400 making him hard to choke down in an awful matchup. Jericole Hellems (F, 7200) is taking over Daniels’s role, 40 DK as well but probably more of a cash play tonight.
Southern Methodist @ Tulsa
This is a big game for SMU, who sits at 9-4, but has over a 50% chance of winning each of their remaining regular season games per kenpom.com. They may need to win out, as their best win is currently vs. Memphis. Kendric Davis (G, 7800) has struggled recently, but he’s still going to play all the minutes, has the #3 assist rate in the nation, and sits around 25% shot share. You’d like a higher over/under, but still a decent bounce back spot in GPPs. Although Feron Hunt (F, 7000) has been fairly steady, he hasn’t hit 4x at this price in 4 straight and given the total, there are better options. I’d rather drop down to Tyson Jolly (G, 4900), who’s getting starter minutes since his return and a much cheaper price point. Emmanuel Bandoumel (G, 4700) is another tourney option who is getting steady minutes, has flashed in the past, and his price is down.
SMU can be beaten from behind the arc, but Tulsa shooting under 29% from 3 so that isn’t helpful. Brandon Rachal (G/F, 7300) has the highest usage and plays the most minutes for the Golden Hurricane. He’s also priced down, so he’s in play as a low owned tourney option as most players look at the SEC or Big East heat on the slate. Rey Idowu (F, 5400) is coming off 5x/6x in increased minutes over his last 2, so he’s a potential tourney flyer as well. Overall, Tulsa uses a balanced approach on offense, which can be a bit annoying from a DFS perspective, so I’m not going overboard here.
#16 Virginia Tech @ Pittsburgh
Keve Aluma (F, 7900) dropped a 52-bomb his last game, on Virginia no less. He’s priced up naturally but this matchup is solid, so definitely GPP appeal. Nahiem Alleyne (G/F, 6400) is second on the team in shot share (23%). Had a turd vs Virginia but double 6x’s prior to that. He’s a gamble for GPP and will need shots. Justyn Mutts (F, 6200) is similar but a little safer floor as he can grab boards. Pitt does defend the 3 pretty well (31%) which minimizes Hunter Cattoor (G, 5600) a bit. Wabissa Bede (G, 4500) is getting Radford’s minutes, 5x last game.
This will be a much tougher defense than Justin Champagnie (F, 10000) has seen in a while. 5x feels extremely optimistic but also hard to see him stay under 4x, maybe a better cash play. Xavier Johnson (G, 6300) will need to take shots to get home, risky GPP play. Au’Diese Toney (G/F, 6300) is 0-8 from 3 in his last 2 games, going 2x, not an ideal matchup for him. Nothing too enticing here otherwise.
Kentucky @ #18 Missouri
The line here is -4, so if you like UK take them now before the public comes flooding in on the Wildcats. From a DFS perspective this should be a slow match-up with a lot of missed shots inside and outside the arc. This would give a bump to UK rebounders Olivier Sarr (F, 6000), BJ Boston (G/F, 6600), and Isaiah Jackson (F, 5700). Keion Brooks (F, 5100) is also a GPP option, and priced down after a 2x and 3x in his last 3. The guards for UK have struggled all season, so this isn’t the game to expect a breakout. We’ll monitor the status of 5-star Terrance Clarke (G, 4100). He’s due back soon and would give that unit a huge lift. Clarke has been out since Christmas.
Jeremiah Tilmon (F, 8300) has put up back-to-back 50 burgers and is playing the best basketball of his long Mizzou career. That being said, UK will be a much tougher match-up in the paint than TCU and Auburn. He’s a hard fade for me. Xavier Pinson (G, 7000) has gone 48, 19, 40, 5, 8 from a DK perspective so GPP only. Dru and Mark Smith (6200 and 4500) are cash options with slim GPP upside, while Kobe Brown (F, 5800) is overpriced and faces the same front line Tilmon will. On the cheap, Javon Pickett (G/F, 4000) saw a season high in minutes (33) last game and has a 22% shot share when on the floor.
Louisville @ Syracuse
This has been cancelled.
Cuse is holding ACC teams to 28% from 3 so far, luckily Carlik Jones (G, 8000) doesn’t need them to come through. Should have a nice high floor with some GPP pop if he can turn his shooting around. David Johnson(G, 7700) is coming off 6x against GT on 20 shots, definitely a tourney play to see if he can stay hot against the zone. Samuell Williamson (G/F, 5300) had a similar game but it was 10x for him. I love his rebounding upside here. Same for Jae’Lyn Withers (F, 6300) who should have a safer floor but more limited ceiling. You can even look at Dre Davis (G/F, 4200) for a value play.
Louisville has also been strong at defending the 3 (29%) and they force teams into taking them (46% 3PA/FGA). You don’t have to force Alan Griffin (F, 9000) though, he should get up plenty. 43 & 48 DK in 2 of last 3. Tough matchup for him and Quincy Guerrier (F, 7700) but both guys can simply go off so always tournament options. Recent form is strong for Marek Dolezaj (F, 6700), 6x vs NC St, but I’m cool on him at the higher price, and I will likely fade the shooters.
Seton Hall @ Providence
As we enter February the Big East is jumbled in the middle with 7 of the 11 teams having 4-to-6 wins. This matchup is a 6-5 vs. a 5-6 team and it is the 6-5 Pirates who are slim favorites on the road. Providence won the first meeting 80-77 in OT, so this should be a good one. Mamu (F, 7800) had 20-6-6 in the first meeting, but comes in at a season low price point. He’s an enticing GPP play. Jared Rhoden (G/F, 6800) has also seen his price decrease more so due to current form of the team. I like both, but not together in lineups. The guard pricing has held steady for Seton Hall and seem to be more suited for cash-lineup with the exception of Bryce Aiken (G, 4000). The Harvard scorer has seen close to 20 minutes in his last two games and has an 8x and 3x in those games.
Paint-by-numbers ??? ? Providence plays haven’t changed much all year. It’s really just a question of where they are priced. After a bad loss to Georgetown, their pricing is down as David Duke (G, 8200) and Nate Watson (F, 6800) are well below their norm. Both smashed the Pirates in the first meeting, so both live in all formats today. In the loss to the Hoyas shooter AJ Reeves (G/F, 6100) went off, so he is at an unplayable price. Alyn Breed (G, 5900) is also too high, but he is getting all the minutes lately with Jared Bynum (G, 4200) still out.
Oklahoma State @ TCU
We’ve got a playable total in Fort Worth, including a potential lock button in Cade Cunningham (G, 7500). He’s back from COVID tracing and played 31 minutes last game. He’s somehow priced down to a season low price point, so fire away in all formats on the future #1 pick in the NBA Draft. Kailb Boone (F, 7100) is priced up $2000 from his previous season high price point. He’s playing incredible lately, but I can’t pull the trigger here. Issac Likekele’s (G, 6500) price drop puts him squarely in play in cash as a high floor target that can do a bit of everything. Similar to Boone, Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe (F, 6400) has seen a $2k price jump over his last 2 games. His price is still in the playable range, but probably more of a 4x target assuming he still gets 30+ minutes. Moncrieffe’s emergence has lowered playing time for Avery Anderson III (G, 5100) and Brice Williams (G, 4700). Rondel Walker (G, 5400) is still seeing his minute share, so I like him best of the 3, but all are risky tourney options only.
Not often you can get a point guard with 86% of the minutes in conference play and 28% shot share in a pace up game for less than $7000, but if you like that sort of thing RJ Nembhard (G, 6900) is your guy. He’ viable in all formats. Mike Miles (G, 6000) is coming off a 50 burger, so form is good and generally a high floor option. Kevin Samuel’s (F, 5500) minutes continue to drop along with his production. He matches up well against Boone down low and we know he can go, but obviously tread lightly given the recent struggles. If you want a weird narrative, you could play Chuck O’Bannon (F, 5200), who may be celebrating the announcement of EA Sports College Football coming back soon, as his uncle was one of the primary reasons why we lost the greatest game in the history of video games back in 2014.
#3 Villanova @ St. John’s
After nearly a month long COVID break, Villanova is back and regaining that familiar form. Tonight they get paced up by St. John’s meaning we can get all the Wildcats we like in this one. Collin Gillespie (G, 7400) has 30 or more DK in 3-of-4 and just needs 29 to his 4x value. Jeremiah Robison-Earl (F, 6900) may be my favorite play on the slate and is due for a smash. Justin Moore (G, 6400) is priced way down for no explainable reason. He is VU’s leading scorer on the year. Caleb Daniels (G/F, 4600) and Cole Swider (F, 4500) have appeal too on the cheap. The only Nova guy I wouldn’t consider is Jermaine Samuels (F, 6600) but he is still a viable cash option.
Julian Champagnie (G/F, 8500) has one of the safest floors in CBB, but hasn’t broken a slate since 1/9 ⏳. Freshman Posh Alexander (G, 7200) has 4x or better in 5-straight behind increased usage in conference play. The rest of the Red Storm are a bit of a guessing game, but Josh Roberts (F, 4200) and Vince Cole (G/F, 4900) could get extended run if Nova is able to dictate pace.
LSU @ #10 Alabama
Bama put up 105 on LSU in regulation in the first meeting and that was when they had Darius Days (F, 6100) who is expected to miss 4-weeks with a knee injury suffered Saturday. The game total is a slate high 163 and pricing looks ??? for this one. Let’s get it to it starting with the visiting Tigers. Replacing Days will probably be Josh LeBlanc (F, 4100). If given 25 minutes I can see him hits 5x pretty easily. LSU wasn’t a deep team so Mwani Wilkinson (F, 3700) will also see a minutes bump, maybe Shaq’s boy Shareef O’Neal (F, 3700) gets some run too. As for the more known Tigers pricing is down for Cam Thomas (G, 7100) and Trendon Watford (F, 7400) smash them both tonight. Pricing is up for Javonte Smart (G, 7600) due to his recent form, which has been great.
For Bama, Herb Jones (G/F, 8100) continues to make his case for SEC POY. He should absolutely eat here. Note, he is banged up so LSU‘s Thomas and Watford are a little more appealing for less money. John Petty (G, 6700) and Jaden Shackelford (G, 6100) are priced to play and have GPP upside. Alabama has a slew of players sub 5k that also are enticing. Alex Reese (F, 4800) is the most reliable forward option and coming off his best DK game of the season. Guards Primo (4400) and Ellis (4100) flash at times, while Jahvon Quinerly (3800) is still in Nate Oats’ dog house ?. JQ had 22 real points in the first meeting against LSU and is 3800 today… wow.
Prize Picks – 2/3/21
Trendon Watford
LSU
With Days out Watford becomes even more critical to the success of the Tigers. The man does everything and will be asked to do more. In the fastest paced game of the night Watford will fly OVER 30.5 on Prize Picks.
– Joe
John Petty
Alabama
He’s coming off one of his worst games of the year, but had 40+ fantasy points in the last matchup vs. LSU and this is by far the highest over/under on the slate. Give me the OVER 25.0.
-Byrd
Collin Gillespie
Villanova
As mentioned, he’s in great form. The Johnnies play fast and are soft defensively so should be a lot of possessions to boot, which is why I like him to go OVER 27.0
– James