We got ourselves another $10K Pull Up Jumper with 7-teams and giving $2,000 to first place. This tourney is identical to yesterdays from the entry fee to the grand prize. The only difference are the teams. While last night’s slate was full of solid over/unders and balanced scoring, tonight’s has a lot less tempo and a little more D thanks to the presence of Houston, UVA, Wisconsin, and Mississippi on the docket.
It’s not all punch you in the mouth though. Rutgers and Iowa is a 7:30 tip that should be full of fireworks. LSU and Mississippi State should be fun. Read up Bucketheads and construct that winning line-up! We are at the half way point in the week, so let’s win all the money!
#9 Virginia @ Georgia Tech
We’ve got a couple ugly over/unders to start the slate tonight, so feel free to have all the PMR heading into the Iowa game. Georgia Tech scored 62 at home vs. Viriginia in Jan. Jose Alvarado (G, 8500) had 20 points and 5 steals in that one, while Moses Wright (F, 8700) had 6 blocks in route to a 31 DK effort. I can’t pay this much on the road against the best defense in the nation, but you’ll get super low ownership if you want to hope lightning strikes again. Michael Devoe (G, 7000) has 25% shot share in conference play and at least 17 points in 3 straight. He was held to 1-8 shooting in the first matchup and price is up. Jordan Usher (G/F, 5800) will play 25 minutes and had 37 DK against the Cavs the first time around. Bubba Parham (G, 4000) is back from injury and played 31 minutes last game if you are looking for a cheap option to fill out your lineup.
Jay Huff (F, 8100) is in great form, hitting at least 29 DK in 7 of his last 8, including a 37 DK effort in their first matchup. He leads the team in shot share during conference play, slightly ahead of Sam Hauser (F, 7900). Hauser has been good as well, but for $200 more I like the block upside Huff can offer. Kihei Clark (G, 5600) has been a steady 4x option, playing 35 min per game of late. I’m probably not looking beyond these 3, but if you are desperate Reece Beekman (G, 4500) will play quite a few minutes, but is an extremely low usage player.
#8 Houston @ South Florida
This AAC matchup features two slow paced teams, USF’s 258th ranked offense in adjusted efficiency per Kenpom, and Houston’s #5 defense in adjusted efficiency. David Collins (G, 6500) has some spike performances this year, but you’ll need to spike some Tom Collins mixed drinks before pressing the button here. Long time CBB DFS players recognize Alexis Yetna (F, 5700), a tough big man down low that might will his way to 4x. 7-footer Michael Durr (F, 4400) is cheap enough to look at as well. Freshman Caleb Murphy (G, 4300) has 27% shot share on the season and is quicker than a hiccup, but his minutes have fluctuated of late, potentially because of a lingering hip injury. These guys are priced low enough to hit value, but a sub-60 implied point total is pretty ugly.
South Florida is holding teams to 28% from 3, good for 13th best in the nation, which hurts Quentin Grimes (G, 7700), who is coming in with terrible form and is a little banged up. The former Jayhawk has been fantastic the majority of the season, but the recent form, foot issue, USF 3-point D, and lack of a substantial price drop scare me. Justin Gorham (F, 7000) has been smashing lately, which isn’t surprising as minutes were the only thing holding him back. USF is an excellent rebounding team and he’s priced near a season high, so there are probably better options and game environments at this price. Your boys @cbb_dfs are suckers for DeJon Jarreau (G, 6500), USF turns it over a ton, and he’s coming off a smashburger performance. He’s a tourney option only given his volatility, but he has shown upside throughout the year. Marcus Sasser (G, 6000) is priced down despite 26.5% shot share in conference play and 4-5x in 4 of his last 5. He feels like a safe cash play given his price, role, and form. The rest of the player logs are skewed due to a random game against NAIA bottom feeder Our Lady of the Lake, so don’t read anything into that.
#10 Missouri @ Mississippi
Mizzou is #10 nationally and Kentucky is 5-13 on the year. What a weird year. Tonight, the Tigers who have won 6-of-7 find themselves slight underdogs in Oxford. This game should be a physical defensive affair so temper expectations with the highly priced Jeremiah Tilmon (F, 7800) and guards Dru Smith (7800) and Xavier Pinson (7100). All three are capable of good games but should be considered volatile GPP plays. Kobe Brown (F, 4800) and Mark Smith (G, 4700) would be safer options, but still hard to recommend. If I had to play someone from Mizzou give me Mitchell Smith (F, 4100) who has gone 5x/6x this price in his last two.
Ole Miss is still the Devante Shuler (G, 7500) show. He’ll play all the minutes and stuffs stats to keep his floor high. Romello White (F, 6600) and Luis Rodrigues (G/F, 6200) having playing styles that thrive in this game atmosphere. Jarkel Joiner (G, 5300) is a boom or bust GPP option. Boomier and Bustier… wait what… is KJ Buffen (F, 3400). The forward started the first 15 games of the season before dealing with a personal issue that caused him to miss a game. Since returning he’s logged 11 minutes in the last two games. If we get any intel on his PT we will pass along. Even in a crappy game environment like this, Buffen would be too much value to sit if we knew he was getting the minutes.
#21 Wisconsin @ Nebraska
D’Mitrik Trice (G, 5700) didn’t have his best game vs Nebraska in Dec (12 DK), but this might be the lowest price you get him all season; 34 DK (5x) vs Illinois. Tyler Wahl (F, 5500) is getting way more mins now than 2 months ago. His production is spotty but matchup is a good one. Micah Potter (F, 5400) had a double-double the first time and the Cornhuskers giving up 56% inside the arc, so solid GPP play. And yeah, you can even play Nate Reuvers (F, 4700)! We know Brad Davison (G, 4900) is a crapshoot (and a pee-shoot), but 15 points, 7 assists, and 3 rebs in their last matchup. Aleem Ford (F, 4200) is playable at the rock bottom price but some risk.
Not much to like on the Nebraska side. Dalano Banton (G/F, 7300) is their best player but priced a bit too high for this matchup, still a cash option. Trey McGowens (G, 6600) will have to find some driving lanes against a stingy Badger defense to hit value. Teddy Allen (G, 6400) was in smash position against Minny but ended up being a late scratch. No clue tonight but matchup is bad anyway. Shamiel Stevenson (G, 4600) got 31 mins in Allen’s absence for 6x. Lat Mayen (F, 5300) isn’t a terrible play, maybe the only one I would actually consider here; can grab boards and get a few defensive stats.
Marquette @ #5 Villanova
Marquette lost to Nova at home by 17 earlier in the year. In that game they turned the ball over 17 times to Nova’s 4, fueling the loss. Tonight, they will need to take care of the ball and the onus starts with DJ Carton (G, 6700), the Eagles highest priced player. From a DFS perspective Carton looks to be a safe cash play along with backcourt mate Koby McEwen (G, 6400). The forward spot is where the Marquette gets tricky. Cain (6300), Garcia (5900), John (5200), and Lewis (5100) all log significant minutes but tend to take turns going off. Lewis has been dealing with a leg injury so check his status before the game, but he is priced the best for GPP. Garica is the most talented of the group, John is in the best form, while Cain directly benefits if Lewis doesn’t play significant minutes again.
Writing up Villanova is like putting on your favorite pair of shoes. They are familiar and don’t change much day to. Gillespie (7600) and Robinson-Earl (7500) are live in all formats. Gillespie and Justin Moore (G, 6800) combined to take 18 3PT attempts in the first match-up so add Moore to the live group as well. Jermaine Samuels (F, 6800) is coming off a 54.5 DK game against Georgetown and has shown upside of late, but we prefer him more in the high 5000s typically. Caleb Daniels (G/F, 4700) will play close to 30 minutes and do all the little things. Cole Swider (F, 4000) is a punt in cash line-ups. He has been 4x in 4-of-6, but no upside beyond that.
LSU @ Mississippi State
Darius Days (F, 6000) went down with a knee injury on 1/30, but there is a chance he plays tonight for LSU. If he goes, I love him at this price. Will Wade isn’t the type to ease someone back, so you can play Days if active. His return would minimize the value of Josh LeBlanc (F, 4500). After that the usual suspects are live for the Tigers but note Mississippi State is a top 40 defensive team. Cam Thomas (G, 8200) is scoring dependent, but averages 22.3 ppg. His 35.4% shot share is the 7th highest in the nation. Trendon Watford (F, 8000) and Javonte Smart (G, 6900) will bring safe ancillary production and have shown GPP upside.
Mississippi State is going to give us three playable options that are all being paced up here. LSU isn’t all that strong defensively, so I like all three in DJ Stewart (G, 7200),Tolu Smith (F, 6700), and Iverson Molinar (G, 6200). After those three the options get a little risky. Deivon Smith (G, 4400) went 6x last game in almost 30 minutes. Derek Fountain (F, 4300) also got near 30 minutes and had 23 DK. He also drew a lot of coaching praise after the game with a hint of aditional minutes continuing. Abdul Ado (F, 4000) starts at the 5, but is too limited offensively to consider.
#25 Rutgers @ #15 Iowa
Iowa is near the bottom of the B1G in defense, particularly soft on the perimeter (37% 3P, 41% of total points), so Rutgers shooters get a big upgrade. Myles Johnson (F, 7200) has had 43.5 DK twice in the last 3 games. He had 5x vs Iowa last time so definitely playable in GPP. Ron Harper Jr (G/F, 6900) is near a season-low price. He’s been underwhelming of late, but this feels like a great spot for him to smash. You can pivot down to Geo Baker (G, 6300) as well for a bit safer option. Jacob Young (G, 5500) has seen his mins steadily decline over the last few games so risky GPP play tonight. I prefer Caleb McConnell (G, 5100), 30 mins last game for 7x.
If you’ve been too cheap to get a piece of Garzilla, now might be your chance. Luka Garza (F, 9700) is at a season-low price and in a favorable matchup. He should be able to surpass the 35 DK he got at the RAC. Joe Wieskamp (G/F, 7400) has been dynamite the last two games, going 6x/5x. Only had 17 DK in 25 mins last time but I don’t expect foul trouble to be an issue at home. Jordan Bohannon (G, 5900) shooting well again and priced to play. Keegan Murray (F, 4900) had his best game vs Rutgers going 10x. He’s playable along with Jack Nunge (F, 5000).
Prize Picks – 2/10/21
Moses Wright
Georgia Tech
Unless he goes bananas with blocks and steals, he won’t sniff this total on the road against an elite D. Give me the UNDER 34.5.
– Byrd
John Fulkerson
Tennessee
He’s been a little hatchy lately that has lowered his expectations, but against a sloppy UGA team that is going to want to play fast, I think Fulkerson could threaten a DD and get OVER 20.8
– Joe
Ron Harper, Jr.
Rutgers
Despite recent struggles, this is a get right game in a pace up matchup for Harper, who still has 27% shot share in conference play. Ever the optimist, give me OVER 28.0.
– James