As we continue to thaw, the slates keep coming and tonight we have a 7-gamer that is old-school Rose Bowl worthy. It features 3 B1G and 3 PAC 12 games that make up all but one contest. The Gonzaga/Saint Mary’s rivalry rounds out the docket.
At first glance I had to do a double take as the games with the two highest totals are from…. the B1G! Up-tempo Iowa and Penn State will take on Wisconsin and Ohio State with an over/under north of 145, while Michigan and Rutgers are at 137.5 (and I like the over). The B1G boasts the nations #3, #4, #11, and #21st ranked teams in action tonight.
While the B1G may take the eyes of the common viewer, the PAC 12 games feature major conference tourney implications as the league’s 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, and 8th place teams are all in action. March is getting closer, Bucketheads! Games are becoming more important, and we are here for it! Just like we are here for you, enjoy the write-ups and win all the money!
Rutgers @ #3 Michigan
Michigan is the top defensive team in the league and holding teams to 40% inside the arc. Couple that with Myles Johnson’s (F, 7600) incessant foul trouble, he’s a pass for me. Ron Harper (G/F, 7500) finally broke out against Northwestern, going 5x. His price is back up and this matchup is awful, so he’s a gamble at best. Jacob Young (G, 6100) is more assertive on offense recently, taking 16 shots last game. Minutes would need to increase to hit any value here. Geo Baker (G, 5900) has to be the guy here for Rutgers to have a chance to win. Love his price point, he’s someone you can take a chance with, in tournaments. Same with Caleb McConnell (G, 5600) who’s been excellent in his last 3 (7x/5x/5x).
Isaiah Livers (G, 8400) has been sensational. He’s at max price but extremely high floor and 5x not out of the question. Franz Wagner (G/F, 7100) is a bit of a mystery at times, but he’s at his lowest price in weeks. Great spot for him to shine. Freshman phenom Hunter Dickinson (F, 6600) has had his ups and downs. He torched Wisconsin for 7x however, and he could have another big one tonight, especially if Johnson sees foul trouble. Eli Brooks (G, 5300) will play a lot and should be a solid cash bet. Mike Smith (G, 5000) is a little more sporadic, but you can look at him in GPP tonight.
Utah @ Oregon State
Both teams play slow, but fortunately neither are great defensively so that helps overcome the pace a bit. Utah can be beaten behind the arc while Oregon St. struggles to defend 2-point FGs. That’s good news for Timmy Allen (F, 8000), who has 27% shot share and will play all the minutes. His price is down slightly, and he feels like a safe bet for 30+ DK tonight. With Jantunen gone, Branden Carlson (F, 6000) should get plenty of minutes down low. He’s a good rebounder and shot blocker, so even with the price increase he’s a viable 4x option. Pelle Larsson (G, 5400) is your typical Euro frosh that will have peaks and valleys as he adjusts, but he’s getting all the minutes. Alfonso Plummer (G, 5100) has struggled of late, but if Rylan Jones is out, he’ll get a lot of minutes and he’s shown upside in the past. Riley Battin (F, 3800) is a deep cut flyer who is averaging close to 4x at this price over his last 5 games.
Ethan Thompson (G, 6800) remains priced down despite having 30+ DK upside, so he’s fully in play in all formats. Warith Alatishe (F, 6700) is much more volatile and outside of a couple huge games, he’s been very average this year. Jarod Lucas (G, 4900) profiles well against Utah’s weak 3 point D, but just understand he’s fully scoring dependent. Things get sketchy after the top 3 here due to the Beavers deep bench (they played 10 players at least 10 min last game), but Gianni Hunt (G, 4000) has gone 6x/4x in his last 2 and Zach Reichle (G/F, 4400) plays plenty of minutes but hasn’t produced since Jan.
Arizona @ UCLA
These teams put up over 150 in their first matchup, but both teams look a lot different now than they did back in early Jan. I’m probably more bearish than the Vegas total here, but I am not a great sports bettor either so who knows. Azoulas Tubelis (F, 7000) has 24% shot share and solid rebounding rates in conference play. I think he’s an ok play, but 4x is probably his ceiling. James Akinjo (G, 6700) dropped 43 DK in the first matchup vs. UCLA and has shown higher upside at a lower price point than Tubelis. Terrell Brown, Jr. (G, 6000) has shown a 4x ceiling when not playing teams names Arizona St. and minutes are down a bit with the emergence of Kerr Krissa (G, 3900), who is starting and had the best outing of his young career last game. He’s named after Steve Kerr fwiw. Bennedict Mathurin (G/F, 5900) is probably the best NBA prospect on the Wildcat roster, but very volatile production to date. I love his minutes per game, but he’s the definition of boom or bust. Christian Koloko (F, 4800) had a stinker last game, but I still like him more than Jordan Brown (F, 5500).
Johnny Juzang (G, 8100) price is up over $2k after smashing 3 straight slates. His rebounding is needed with Jalen Hill out. If he continues to get 18+ shots a game, he has to remain in play but his price point is obnoxious. I have no interest in Jaime Jacquez, Jr. (G/F, 6600) until his price drops, as he’s shown no ceiling whatsoever. I’d much rather hope for some regression for Tygar Campbell (G, 5800), who is still playing plenty of minutes and has proven success earlier in the year. Cody Riley (F, 5700) is a low owned tourney option that was only held back by the timeshare he was in with Hill before, but in theory he’s their only reliable big against a big AZ front line. Jules Bernard (G/F, 4500) is yet another tourney option at a bargain price point for the Bruins. This game is tough to navigate due to the inconsistencies on both sides of the ball, but pricing is generally fair to take a couple shots in tourneys.
Colorado @ Oregon
Colorado won 79-72 in Boulder back in early Jan. Oregon didn’t have Will Richardson then, so I do expect a different result tonight, as this game would do wonders for Oregon’s at large hopes. McKinley Wright (G, 7800) led the way in the first matchup with a massive 21-point, 10 board, 5 assist performance. Wright remains a high floor play, as he’ll have the ball in his hands all game long. Jeriah Horne (F, 6200) has played more minutes lately and has low 20s shot share and rebounding rates in conference play, which are solid. I don’t love his price, as it hurts his ceiling, so I’d say he’s just ok. Evan Battey (F, 5400) got priced back up despite his recent struggles, so that stinks because I would have liked him in the mid-$4k range. D’Shawn Schwartz (G/F, 4800) and Eli Parquet (G, 4500) both plays 30+ minutes and find a way to do nothing with that time, but they’ll be on the court most of the game in a solid over/under, so they are punt options. Schwarz in particular has shown some skill in the past, but he’s been super inefficient this season.
Colorado is solid defensively, but they can be beaten down low. Eugene Omoruyi (G, 7800) and Chris Duarte (G, 7400) have turned into option 1A and 1B for a dangerous Oregon team. Omoruyi offers versatility and toughness, while Duarte is a high-level shooter with elite steal rates, block upside, and even gets a few boards. I think they are both solid targets tonight, especially Duarte given his reduced price point and 40+ DK upside. LJ Figueroa (G/F, 7200) has lower shot share, but is a better rebounder and is another solid 4x target for the Ducks. I really like Will Richardson (G, 6400) as a player, but would prefer to see his price in the mid-$5k range as the 4th option offensively. If Erik Williams (F, 6300) misses, give Omoruyi and Figueroa a slight bump. If he goes, he’s probably a bit overpriced given his usage and price tag. You can let the rest of the Ducks swim by as they are too volatile to invest in.
Saint Mary’s @ #1 Gonzaga
The Gaels came off a 3-week COVID pause last Saturday and fell to Pepperdine on the road by two. Minutes were a little off kilter that game, so there is volatility with their line-up today. Regardless, Saint Mary’s wants to slow this game down as much as possible. Ideally each possession ends deep in the shot clock. When the shot goes up, it can be by a number of different players as the team doesn’t boast a true offensive alpha. Tommy Kuhse (G, 6300) leads the team in usage, making him the safest play, while Matthias Tass (F, 6800) and Logan Johnson (G, 6500) are viable cash game options. On the cheaper side, Kyle Bowen (F, 4600) had been logging heavy minutes and went 5x in two straight before the break. Dan Fotu (F, 4100) had 15 and 7 in the first match-up with the Zags, but played just 20 minutes in the game after the COVID pause.
The Bulldogs have only one game left in their regular season after this one – crazy, right? Big favorites at home, we can always look to the usual suspects for the Zags. Drew Timme (F, 9300) checks in at a season high price point after back to back 40+ DK double-doubles. Jalen Suggs (G, 8600) is also at a season high going for 30 DK or more in 5-of-6. Cory Kispert (F, 7700) is on the cheaper side of things for a stud player. Kispert has been quiet of late coming in under 4x in 4-straight. Guards Joel Ayai (6500) and Andrew Nembhard (5900) will get plenty of minutes, but should be considered more cash options – Ayayi with the higher upside. I can’t recommend any of the Zags bench guys. Anton Watson (F, 4500) is technically a starter, but plays reserve minutes (around 18-20 per game).
#4 Ohio State @ Penn State
Penn St has been susceptible to big men all year and EJ Liddell (G/F, 7300) is among the best in the league. He had an easy 4x last time and priced a little cheaper now. I would expect similar results. You can pivot down to Justice Sueing (F, 6500) as well. He’s been a difference-maker of late and 7x last time vs the Nittany Lions. Good matchup for Kyle Young (F, 6400). He’s overpriced and prone to foul trouble, so risky GPP play. You can even look at Zed Key (F, 3900) as a super-saver, 4x last time and 5x vs Indiana. Not really interested in the guards in this one, Penn St really solid on the perimeter d-sticks.
John Harrar (F, 6900) has been terrific this season. His price is creeping up now, won’t hit 6x like he did last time, but the matchup is still good. Izaiah Brockington (G/F, 6300) and Myreon Jones (G, 5800) will take all the shots. Not a great matchup, but I’d probably play Jones in GPP with his 27% shot share. He got up 20 FGAs last game. Seth Lundy (F, 4900) is fools’ gold. His minutes are back down after Myles Dread (G/F, 3900) returned. Jamari Wheeler (G, 5700) is priced a little too high for my liking.
#11 Iowa @ #21 Wisconsin
As the B1G grind as wears on, Luka Garza (F, 9500) has looked pedestrian at times (see IU, UI, and MSU). The Badgers aren’t the same team at home they’ve been in the past, but the pace and matchup aren’t favorable. That said, he’s priced down a bit and maybe won’t have as high of ownership? Joe Wieskamp (G/F, 8300) has been shooting the air out of the ball. 5-7 from 3 in each of last two (46/40 DK). Seems unlikely to hit that again but 4x definitely doable. Jack Nunge (F, 6100) is my BFF obv, but after he crushed Sparty, he is priced out of consideration. Sorry ol’ buddy. After that, it’s just gambling.
Things get more interesting on the Wisconsin side. Iowa is soft defensively. Coupled with the extra possessions, it makes guys like D’Mitrik Trice (G, 7000) stand out. He’s in better form and even at a higher price, looks great for GPP. Micah Potter (F, 5300) can be considered in tournaments but still splitting time with Nate Reuvers (F, 4100), the latter being the better value at this point. Aleem Ford (F, 4700) is very playable at that price, getting close to 30 mpg of late and matchup solid. Brad Davison (G, 4200) probably thinks he’s playing the Buckeyes since he’s always looking for nuts to beat.
Prize Picks 2/17/21
D’Mitrik Trice
Wisconsin
He’s burned me before, but he’s back in good form. Should be fired up after home loss to Michigan and Iowa defense soft as tissue paper. Has only missed this line twice in last 10 games, both against PSU which is why I think he’ll get OVER 23.8
– James
Ron Harper Jr.
Rutgers
Michigan is elite defensively and Harper Jr. hasn’t scored over 20 in a game since before Christmas. Steal and block upside limited too. Give me UNDER 26.5 tonight.
– Byrd
Luka Garza
Iowa
Weird to pick the UNDER with Garza, but on the road against a slow Wisconsin team with a bevy of bigs to throw at him, I don’t see how he can go OVER a massive 38.0 point projection.
– Joe