Friday Funday – $5K Heating Up [1K to 1st]

It’s Friday Funday, Bucketheads! For all of you mid-major lovers, this is the day we step out of our comfort zone and bring you some of the unknown. Two Conference USA games and one Moutain West game make up 75% of this 4-game slate. With lesser know squads we dive a little deeper to see what we can find, but encourage our followers to do their own due diligence because news on these lesser know programs can be hard to find. We know…

More and more Friday’s feel like an episode of the grossly underrated X-Files shows from the 90s. Byrd will do his best Fox Mulder impression searching for truth. I’ll (Joe) will keep us on task and grounded like AD Skinner. James… well he’ll take the lone Big Ten game no one is interested in that is just like the character Alex Krycek – boring and not needed.

CSM all-time great villain and known Bills hater

If I haven’t lost our readers yet, good luck tonight and have a great weekend Bucketheads! Enjoy the Super Bowl and check out our pod we drop this weekend! We’ll be in the studio tonight breaking down that Saturday AM slate.

North Texas -5, (129) – 7:00

Louisiana Tech @ North Texas

La Tech plays their 20^th game of the season tonight and sit at 14-5 on the year (7-3 in Conference USA play) – pretty impressive. The Bulldogs are reasonably priced with Isaiah Crawford (F, 7000) their high man. Crawford is a safe cash option, but has also flashed GPP upside when the shots are going down. Firmly in the cash category are guards JaColby Pemberton (6100), Amorie Archibald (5900) and Cobe Williams (5700). Kenneth Lofton Jr. (F, 6000) is more of a boom or bust option. The freshman has 29% usage when on the floor, but is normally limited to around 20 minutes. Look for Kalob Ledoux (G/F, 4800) to be a popular play tonight here and on Prize Picks. The senior missed a pair of games in January deflating his price. If he is back to his normal 30 minutes he should cruise past 4x.

With North Texas we get a team that wants to play slow and get good shots. This formula has them 15^th nationally in effective FG% at 56.2%. Their usage and shot share alpha is Javion Hamlet (G, 6600) who seems underpriced tonight. He had a 43 DK game last week. Zach Simmons (F, 6900) is coming off a double-double and is playable in a slate light at forwards. James Reese (G/F, 5800) has taken at least 5 3s in every game this year but one, so that makes him a GPP long shot (see what I did there). The rest of the Mean Green hover around 20 minutes with no one in particular standing out. Of that group, Thomas Bell (F, 5500) is the team’s best shot blocker and a solid rebounder.

North Texas -5, (129) – 7:00

Marshall -4, (140) – 6:00

Marshall @ Old Dominion

Marshall is going to try to pace up this game against Old Dominion. The Thundering Herd have the 8^th shortest possession rate offensively in the nation, so expect them to get up a lot of attempts both inside and outside the arc. Taevion Kinsey (G/F, 9200) is the slate’s price king and leads Marshall in shot share amongst players getting significant minutes. He has only hit 4x this price point once in his last four, but it was last time out. I’d be cautious with him and maybe consider Andrew Taylor (G, 7700) instead. He’s in better form going over 4x in his last 5. Jarrod West (G, 7100) is boom or bust option, and the forward rotation is probably something to avoid altogether.

For ODU, Malik Curry (G, 8500) leads the team in usage and shot share and will benefit from the pace. He also brings massive steal upside (7 last game, 20 in last 5). Monarch forwards are much more appealing in this one, but hard to choose between Reece (6300), Ezikpe (5900) and Trice (5600). Senior Xavier Green (G, 4400) is a cheaper option who plays the second most minutes. AJ Oliver II (G, 4700) takes the most 3’s and where Marshall is allowing teams to connenct at a 36% clip (258^th nationally).

Marshall -4, (140) – 6:00

Penn State -3, (143) – 6:00

Maryland @ Penn State

Aaron Wiggins (G/F, 7600) was red-hot last game, going 6x against Purdue. He’s up $1500 tonight though and the Nittany Lions are tough on the perimeter, so limit expectations. Donta Scott (F, 7200) is a safer choice against a weak and undersized PSU front court. Eric Ayala (G, 6400) should be able to keep a high floor and can be considered in cash. Darryl Morsell (G, 5400) and Hakim Hart (G, 4500) are risky tournament plays. Morsell’s ability to get to the cup makes him more appealing of the two.

John Harrar (F, 6700) is the price king for the Nittany Lions, after a stretch of solid games (5x/4x/6x/5x/3x). He’s an elite offensive rebounder and can draw fouls. Not the best matchup but playing his best ball. Izaiah Brockington (G/F, 6500) had a stinker at the Kohl Center. His price is down $900 which makes him playable at least. Myreon Jones (G, 6000) you can get even cheaper and profiles very similarly. As mentioned last time, Seth Lundy (F, 5700) has seen a dip in PT since Myles Dread (G, 3600) returned, making neither particularly appealing. At least Lundy is playable in GPP now. Jamari Wheeler (G, 4900) and Sam Sessoms (G, 4100) are your standard tournament dart throws.

Penn State -3, (143) – 6:00

Boise St. -4, (144) – 8:00

Boise State @ Nevada

This weekend’s doubleheader against Nevada is important for Boise State’s Mountain West title chances, as they currently sit a game up in the standings over Utah St. Both teams play at an above average tempo. Nevada gives up a lot of 3s, so bump up Boise St. shooters. Derrick Alston (G/F, 7900) and Marcus Shaver are shooting 39% and 43% respectively from deep. Alston has higher shot share, while Shaver has been more balanced. Alston has slowed down recently but lived in the mid-30s DK range for two months so he’s a solid target. Shaver is more boom or bust so he’s better suited for GPPs. Former Duck Abu Kigab (F, 7300) is the team’s best rebounder and is very involved in ancillary production, raising his floor and ceiling. Mladen Armus (F, 6200) is a Serbian big man with strength down low. He’s played some of his best basketball of late, so another solid tourney option. Rayj Dennis (G, 5100) is their starting PG, but minutes are down a bit lately. I like former AZ Wildcat Devonaire Doutrive (G, 3800) a cheap value play tonight. He’ll play roughly 20 minutes and should cruise to value at this price point.

Nevada is coming off some cupcake matches against a horrible UNLV defense, so beware of the bumps in production of late. Wichita St. transfer Grant Sherfield (G, 8700) has 28% shot share and top 20 assist rates nationally. He’s the alpha of this wolfpack and very playable if you can afford him. Desmond Cambridge (G, 6800) actually has higher shot share than Sherfield and gets enough ancillary production to provide a high floor. I don’t think he’ll smash the slate, but he won’t ruin your lineup either. I was impressed with the length and skill Warren Washington (F, 5300) plays with, but he doesn’t bring it every night. The good version of WW has 5x upside, making him a tourney option at a reasonable price. Zane Meeks (F, 4900) is hampered but sub-20-minute playing time since returning from a 3-game absence. KJ Hymes (F, 4500) is a similar story. He’s producing almost a point per minute lately, but only getting limited minutes behind Washington right now. Tre Coleman (F, 4200) is right around 4x over his last 5 and Daniel Foster (G, 3400) has started recently if you are looking for punt plays on the short slate.

Boise St. -4, (144) – 8:00

Prize Picks – 2/5/21

Derrick Alston, Jr.

Boise St.

Solid over/under and Alston averaging 18 real points per game. He has 8 games with at least two steals as well, which are huge with PrizePicks scoring. Give me the OVER 24.5.

-Byrd

Donta Scott

Maryland

Penn St giving up 57% from 2 in B1G play. They’ve been getting crushed by bigs all season, even Nate Reuvers. He’s also shooting 47% from 3 and leads the team in blocks. Scott should cruise OVER 26.5

– James

Kalob Ledoux

Louisiana Tech

Starter missed two games in mid-January, but is back and should see his normal minutes. I like him to go OVER 16.5 considering he averages 12 points and 4 rebounds per game.

– Joe