Welcome back Bucketheads. We are pushing towards the finish line, as the regular season ends in a week and a half. With schedule reshuffling, it should be a mad dash to the finish line. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that COVID doesn’t create any unnecessary drama as conference tourneys and March Madness draw closer. Regardless, we are going to roll with the punches and provide you the best info we can to help build your best lineups. Tonight, we’ve got the standard $15 entry and $2k to 1st on DraftKings. Two of the top 4 highest priced players are from Vandy, so if you had that on your season long Bingo card, congrats! Adding to the oddity, Zach Freemantle is the 2nd highest priced player on the slate and Raiquan Gray is 5th highest. If those prices are any indication, should be a very interesting slate.
On the PrizePicks front, we’ve gone 6-0 this week and have hit at least 2 of 3 for over a week now. We’ll do our best to continue to bring the PrizePicks heat along with our normal fireball DFS content. As always, we are here for you Bucketheads. Good luck tonight and win all the money!!
NC State @ #11 Virginia
Just generally a bad game for the middle of the road Wolfpack. DJ Funderburk (F, 6200) and Manny Bates (F, 6000) have a bit of rebounding upside and priced down, but you really shouldn’t be looking at these guys in GPP. WTF is Dereon Seabron (G, 5700)? Great question. I don’t know the answer, but he’s playing 30+ mpg the last two games and smashed for 12x last game. He’s up $2500 now, so pretty risky against the best and slowest D in conference. Jericole Hellems (F, 5300) used to be awesome (32 DK vs UV), now he stinks. Some fouling issues, but I still like his price, even here. Fr. Cam Hayes (G, 4800) still cheap, 6x/6x last 2. The other frosh, Shakeel Moore (G, 4200) has strung together some decent games but suddenly crowded backcourt could squeeze minutes.
On the flipside, pretty good matchup for the Cavs. Jay Huff (F, 8100) has been up and down, but he’s squarely in play for GPP. Sam Hauser (F, 7900) only hit 3x last time, but I think he should be a solid cash play tonight. Same for Kiehi Clark (G, 6000), steady eddy, should have a comfortably high floor. Trey Murphy (G/F, 5700) had one of this best scoring games (18 pts) last time, so he’s in play but riskier GPP option with limited upside.
Indiana @ Rutgers
Nothing scary about this matchup for Trayce Jackson-Davis (F, 9200). He’s back up in price after 51 DK against Sparty. He should have rebounding upside and Rutgers also fouls a lot so can do some damage at the line as well. Armaan Franklin (G, 5500) is coming off a couple 4x games and priced down. I don’t actually mind him here at that price. Race Thompson (F, 5500) is hit or miss, mostly miss. Not a great matchup, so a GPP gamble. Same with Rob Phinisee (G, 4200), his minutes are there but he can completely disappear as a scorer. Good things happen when he does however…
Boy oh boy, Ron Harper Jr (G/F, 6800) has made this writer look foolish this season. Let’s call it like it is at this point, he’s a dice roll. 36 DK last time on 12 boards, so he’s capable but play with caution (at least his price is low). Myles Johnson (F, 6600) is similar in his inconsistency, but I do like him here in GPP, had 5 blocks last time. Geo Baker (G, 5600) was able to get going, scoring 19 points, but Jacob Young (G, 5500) has sort of taken the scoring reigns back over recently. I’d play Geo in GPP and Young in cash. Last but not least, I still really like Caleb McConnell (G, 5300). Tough outing against a good Maryland perimeter D, but he’s poised to bounce back.
Xavier @ Providence
Xavier won the first matchup 74-73 and should be another competitive game tonight. As mentioned in the intro, Zach Freemantle (F, 9000) is priced to the moon. For reference, he was $6900 when these teams played in mid-January. He’s playing great of late and I think he could get 30 DK, but I just don’t see a 45 burger that would provide 5x returns tonight. Paul Scruggs (G, 8300) only has 20% shot share in conference play, which has led to some up and down moments this season. He’s a low owned tourney option only. Nate Johnson (G, 6400) is playing 35 minutes a night and got priced down after a poor outing last game. He was right around 4x the 4 previous games and will likely fall around that again tonight. The freshman Colby Jones (G/F, 5900) is starting to believe, seeing more minutes of late and exploding to 32.5 and 41.3 DK outbursts over his last 2. His price is up $1100 he’s sharing minutes at SF/PF, but obviously recent form is great.
David Duke (G, 8000) had 30 real points in their first matchup, resulting in a 50 burger on DK. I certainly prefer him over the high-priced Xavier players, as he has just as much ceiling at a cheaper price point. Nate Watson (F, 6500) also smashed in the first matchup, but is priced down significantly. This feels like a great bounce back candidate after a couple of stinkers lately, but his minutes are down slightly which is annoying. Part of Watson’s decline is Noah Horchler’s (F, 6400) recent production. Horchler is getting more minutes than Watson of late and DK fixed their pricing after the comical $8k price point last week. He’ll be on the floor all game an while we don’t think he’s overly talented, Ed Cooley certainly does. AJ Reeves (G, 4800) is super scoring dependent, but his price is way down, and he’ll play 35+ minutes if you need a tourney flyer. With Jared Bynum (G, 3400) working his way back from injury, Alyn Breed (G, 4400) is still seeing 30 minutes at PG and Greg Gantt (F, 3500) has seen more minutes down low if you are desperado.
#25 Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Instate rivals go head to head as Tennessee and Vanderbilt clash in Nashville. The Vols won this contest by 20 back on 1/16 and Vegas thinks they will be convincingly triumphant again in this one. Vanderbilt will pace up the Vols a little which is good news if you like playing the freshmen Jaden Springer (G, 7500) and Keon Johnson (G/F, 5800). Both seem to be pretty safe plays in all formats. Josiah Jordan James (G/F, 7400) is considered day-today with a wrist issue, so if he misses more love can be spread to the young studs. More love can also go to Victor Bailey Jr. (G, 5600) who has gone for 28 and 45 DK in the two games JJJ has missed. In the interior Pons (G/F, 5100) and Fulkerson (5000) are both priced to play and make nice below-market GPP targets. Santiago Vescovi (G, 5000) has been quiet lately but still playing close to 30 mpg ??♂️.
Dylan Disu (F, 8900) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (G, 8800) have been amazing DFS options this season, but temper expectations against the Tennessee D. Pip Jr. had just 21 DK in the first meeting and Disu 26. Don’t look at Disu’s game log if you want to fade him…. The 62 burger he hung on (also defensive minded) Kentucky could lead to a bad choice. After the two Commodore stars, Maxwell Evans (G, 5200) could be a cheaper GPP flier. We are monitoring the status of Clevon Brown (F, 4600) who missed on Saturday versus Bama. In his place Bralee Albert (G/F, 3300) played 28 minutes.
#11 Florida State @ Miami
Last game was a blowout, so guys like Raiquan Gray (F, 8500) didn’t play enough to hit their value. He’s at max price and doesn’t appear Miami is any better but he’s playable in GPP. The Hurricanes are close to the bottom in defensive efficiency, particularly guarding the 3 (38%), so you can eye-ball Seminole shooters. MJ Walker (G, 5900) isn’t a bad choice for GPP but you’re really rolling the dice with him, needs to be the ball hog we all know he is. Scottie Barnes (G, 6700) is a bet-on-talent guy, but he’s settled into a role here which puts Bucketheads to sleep, has only hit 4x 3 times in last 10. No one else really jumps out, but there are some solid <$5000 plays like Anthony Polite (G, 4800) who’s shooting 50% from 3.
Isaiah Wong (G, 7200) was close to 5x last time these teams played. Only 18 mins last game, so not sure what’s up there, some risk but he’s been their alpha scorer all year. Elijah Olaniyi (G/F, 6800) is in good form. He didn’t play this game back in January, but he’s someone to look at in GPP, plays every minute. Similar story for Kam McGusty (G, 6100), really like his value right now. The big 7-footer Nysier Brooks (F, 5700) struggled with fouls last time, but I still don’t mind him in cash. The rest of the team is either in the infirmary or complete fliers.
Marquette @ North Carolina
One of the very few benefits of COVID is in-flight scheduling, which resulted in a fun Big East/ACC matchup here. Let’s hope that trend continues post-COVID, as it’s a smart way to try to enhance tourney profiles. Marquette gets a pace up game on the road and both teams have struggled to defend the 3, so bump shooters up a bit. For Marquette, Justin Lewis remains out which doesn’t help their chances against the massive UNC front line. Jamal Cain (F, 7000) has seen more minutes due to the Lewis injury, but his $1600 price jump has me looking elsewhere. DJ Carton (G, 5800) and Dawson Garcia (F, 5800) have struggled recently, but these are guys that showed 30+ DK upside consistently early in the year, so might be a good buy low spot in a pace up game. Theo John’s (F, 5200) strength and defensive awareness will be critical tonight. If he can avoid foul trouble, he should be a lock for 4x, which he’s hit in 4 straight. Koby McEwen (G, 5100) is another intriguing tourney option at by far his lowest price of the season. He should benefit from the pace up game and isn’t afraid to rack up some 3s. Greg Elliott (G, 4300) started last game and played his most minutes of the season, which did impact McEwen’s playing time.
I’m not sure anyone in the country can produce more points per minute than Day’Ron Sharpe (F, 7300). He hasn’t hit 20 minutes of playing time in 4 straight games yet has a 40 and 30 burger on the resume. I can’t pay over $7k for someone that isn’t going to play a full share of minutes, but he’s a beast and the matchup isn’t scary by any means. Garrison Brooks (F, 6300) has been a higher floor, lower ceiling player as part of the big man carousel. Armando Bacot (F, 5600) and Walker Kessler (F, 5000) round out the foursome down low. Bacot has 4-5x in 3 of his last 4, while Kessler has exploded the last 2 games in limited minutes, but his price has increased to the point where he’s probably not a viable option. Caleb Love (G, 5700) has played much better of late, but still a bit of a gamble. Kerwin Walton (G, 5400) has stepped up recently as well, which has limited Leaky Black’s (G/F, 4600) playing time. UNC is fairly balanced in terms of production, so hard to isolate who the guy is going to be on any given night.
South Carolina @ Mississippi State
Mississippi State plays pretty good defense and at a very slow tempo, so major contrasting styles in this one. For the Gamecocks, we need to temper the expectations for AJ Lawson (G, 8200) due to this pace and the potential return of Jermaine Cousinard (G/F, 3900) and his 25% usage. With Cousinard rigorously discounted, I like firing him up in this one, but I am not expecting an 8x out of the gate due to the foot injury. I do still he is a reasonable cash play with upside. Keyshawn Bryant (F, 7200) is kind of match-up proof given his versatile skills, so he is okay in cash and has GPP upside. Justin Minaya (F, 5100) is a GPP only target.
The Bulldogs will benefit from SC wanting to push the tempo. Like the Gamecocks, they have two guards that are DFS regulars and a forward who has GPP appeal at times. DJ Stewart (G, 6600) and Iverson Molinar (G, 6500) each have a 29% shot share and are both very playable here. The Gamecocks have struggled defending the arc, so I give a slight nod to Stewart who’ll let it fly from deep. Tolu Smith (F, 6700) is their active big. He’s shown 50 DK upside, but traditional resides around 3x this price point. Abdul Ado (F, 4500) and Devion Smith (G, 4300) are both playable as cheaper punts if you just want to get a piece of a slower team being paced up a bit.
#6 Alabama @ #20 Arkansas
I love it when one of the last tips of the night also has the highest over/under on the slate. These teams play at the 10th and 29th fastest tempos in the nation, so we can expect lots of possessions and DFS opportunities on both sides. Pricing is favorable too so let’s take a look at the visitors first. Jaden Shackelford (G, 7600) is in excellent form right now which has resulted in a $1000 price bump. Prefer him more in cash due to the raise. Herb Jones (G/F, 6900) and John Petty (G, 6800) on the other hand are both down $200 and are awesome values at their price. Jordan Bruner (F, 6100) returned at the pivot for Bama last game, but he’ll probably be limited to just 20 minutes as they ease him back in. In the sub 5k range, Jahvon Quinerly (G, 4500) is 5x in his last two. Keon Ellis (G, 4600) hasn’t been under 4x in all of February and Josh Primo (G, 4000) always has GPP upside. With the exception of Bruner and the other forwards, play all the Tide guys you want.
The Razorbacks lost this match-up by 31 in Tuscaloosa, and they are favored by 1 at home. Moses Moody (G, 7100) had 41.3 DK in that first contest and I love him in this game (Prize Picks Spoiler Alert). Justin Smith (F, 7700) is at a season high price point after a 41.5 DK outburst over the weekend, so lower expectations to cash play level. Jalen Tate (G, 6200) and Davonte Davis (G, 5400) are low owned cheaper choices that provide late tourney heat. I worry the 7-3 Vanover (F, 5400) may be paced out of this one. He got only 2 minutes in the first meeting. If you are looking for some bargain basement pricing options, Arkansas has plenty of those. Minutes have been erratic lately for JD Notae (G, 4200) and Desi Sills (G, 3300), but each are capable of 7x this price if the game flow goes their way. Jaylin Williams (F, 4400) is another cheap cut; he has played 23+ minutes in 3-straight.
Prize Picks 2/17/21
Moses Moody
Arkansas
I really wanted to run Petty back, but he burned us Saturday and is our only miss in the last 9 Prize Picks we have published. Therefore, give me the Razorbacks alpha to go OVER 26.4 in the highest scoring game on the schedule.
– Joe
DJ Stewart
Mississippi State
Stewart plays the most minutes in the SEC, has 29% shot share, and steal upside for a team with an implied total in the mid-70s. Give me the OVER 26.8.
– Byrd
Trayce Jackson-Davis
Indiana
PP Bucketheads may lay off this one since he had a (relatively) subpar game last time. I’m full-steam ahead though and see that as an outlier in an otherwise dominant season. He’s better on the road and should be motivated after tough Sparty loss. OVER 33.5
– James