We’ve had two Bucketheads win the Pull-Up Jumper on DK over the last 6 days, so the DFS content is straight fire right now. And, if it wasn’t for 3 late turnovers by DJ Stewart in Mississippi State’s blowout of South Carolina last night, your boys @CBB_DFS would be 9-0 in Prize Picks this week as well. Stewart ended with 26.3 and needed 26.8. We hoped for the stat correction that never came. Ugh. It is what it is though and we can still claim to be red hot. You know we have our picks at the bottom but before that be sure to take in all the sizzling DFS content for the 9-games on today’s bloated Thursday slate.
Tonight’s tourney features 4-game from the PAC12, 2 from mid-major-ish contests, and 3 games from the B1G. Of those B1G contests, two are stellar match-ups with major NCAA tourney implications. Good luck tonight, Bucketheads! We’ll keep providing the fire content, you guys just keep winning all the money!
Western Kentucky @ #12 Houston
Whether it be COVID issues, or Texas freezing over last week, this game was in serious jeopardy of being played. Luckily for us all systems are go tonight as Western Kentucky, representing Conference USA will travel to Houston (of the AAC) in a non-conference mid-major showdown. WKU has played one series with Rice in the past month due to the virus, and have a chance to pad their tourney resume with a win here. Charles Bassey (F, 9200) is their best player, but the price point is awfully high given the defensive nature of the Cougars and the 136 total. For almost $3000 less you can target Taveion Hollingsworth (G, 6300) who has similar usage and shot share numbers to Bassey. The rest of the Hilltoppers are hard to recommend against this top flight D. Carson Williams (F, 5300) had his best DK game of the season last time out and his presence will be needed down low. Josh Anderson (G/F, 5100) is a GPP option who averages double figures.
Houston’s Quentin Grimes (G/F, 8300) leads the team in usage and shot share and adds plus rebounding. Marcus Sasser (G, 5800) has the team’s second highest shot share. WKU will give up the three ball and both Grimes and Sasser have taken over 140 on the year. Fabian White (F, 5900) returned two game ago as the Cougars add another important piece to their rotation. Increasing his minutes and getting him tourney ready is the priority now – love him at this price. His return does cut in to the appeal for Justin Gorham (F, 6600). DeJon Jarreau (G, 7300) is a bit overpriced, but has been in great form. Same can be said for Tramon Mark (G, 5600).
UCLA @ Utah
UCLA is somehow 12-3 in conference play and face a Utes team they beat 72-70 on New Years Eve. All 5 Bruin losses have been on the road this season. Jaime Jacquez, Jr. (G/F, 7600) has increased his usage of late, which helps since he already provided peripheral stats. He’s priced up on the road, so more of a tourney option only. Utah gives up a lot of 3s, which is something Johnny Juzang (G, 7200) brings to this offense. He’s been forced to become an active rebounder as well with the limited frontcourt options. I’m not dying to shove in any high-priced Bruins, but he has shown upside with Hill out of the lineup. Tygar Campbell (G, 6700) has been disappointing most of 2021 after a decent start to the year. I do like Jules Bernard (G, 5300) at this price point. He’s seeing 30+ minutes and should return 4x value. Mick Cronin is still limiting Cody Riley’s (F, 5200) minutes despite limited options down low. He can still get 4x, but the minutes restrictions really hurt his ceiling.
Timmy Allen (F, 8100) is the wing version of McKinley Wright. He’s going to hover around 30 DK points night in and night out. His price has dropped a bit, which is nice to see. With Jantunen waiting on COVID protocol, Branden Carlson (F, 6200) will continue to be the primary big down low. He’s a boom or bust tourney option. DK must like Pelle Larsson (G, 5900) as much as I do, as I think he’ll be an excellent player moving forward. He’s probably priced up too much for his current role, however. We’ve seen Alfonso Plummer (G, 5400) get hot from deep and he’s getting minutes, so he has tourney upside. UCLA gives up 3s at a higher rate than most teams, which helps the cause.
#19 USC @ Colorado
USC bounced back from an ugly loss to Arizona with a convincing win over Oregon. They head to Colorado tonight, who they lost to 72-62 at home back in late December. Both teams are slower paced, defensive minded squads. Keep your eyes peeled for Isaiah Mobley’s (F, 6800) status, as his post-tip injury news burned a lot of folks Monday. Without his big brother, Evan Mobley (F, 9000) struggled for the first time in months. I’d expect a bounce back tonight and a slightly reduced price. Tajh Eaddy (G, 6600) has 30+ DK in 3 of his last 4 games, putting on a shooting clinic early against Oregon. This will be a tougher matchup, but 4x is still in the range of outcomes. With Mobley out, Drew Peterson (G/F, 5400) played way more minutes and was excellent. He’s a decent value option if Mobley is out again. Ethan Anderson (G, 4700) also played his best game of the season. Minutes are the real question for him, but if he plays 25+ minutes he should easily hit value.
Despite a tough USC D, I think McKinley Wright (G, 7100) will be popular, especially in cash lineups. He lives around that 30 DK range and had 19 real points in their first matchup. D’Shawn Schwartz (G/F, 5900) continues to be a boom or bust option only. Honestly, I’m not in love with the rest of the Buffs. They have a deep post rotation going right now, even adding Tristan Da Silva to the mix. The significant bench minutes really hurt the upside and make it impossible to predict who will emerge, especially against a tough USC D.
Oregon @ Stanford
Oregon gets a pace up game on the road against a Stanford team that can be beaten behind the arc. That profiles well for Chris Duarte (G, 7400), who had 23 real points and 4 steals/2 blocks in their first matchup. Eugene Omoruyi (G, 6900) has struggled recently, but it’s not often we get a player with 28% shot share in league play for under $7k. LJ Figueroa (G/F, 6700) has been steady lately and had 13 points/12 boards in their first matchup. Duquesne transfer Eric Williams, Jr. (F, 5800) is another undersized big that’s getting plenty of minutes but has much more volatility than Omoruyi and Figueroa. Will Richardson (G, 5000) continues to play all the minutes, so we are just waiting for his breakout game.
With the disappearance of 5-star Ziaire Williams, Oscar Da Silva (G/F, 7700) is the unquestioned alpha of this team. Not sure who he bribed to get guard eligibility on DK, but he’s a steady 4x performer with upside. Michael O’Connell (G, 6200) is still getting steady minutes, even with Daejon Davis (G, 5700) back. I think Davis is a better player, but he’s still working back from injury, so both are probably tourney options only. Outside of the triple OT game, Jaiden Delaire (F, 5400) and Spencer Jones (F, 5100) minutes are down. It’s crazy to see Ziaire Williams (F, 4800) below $5k, as the 5-star had a triple double earlier in the season but got in the doghouse and is somehow unplayable right now. Stanford plays a very deep bench right now, so Da Silva is really the only sure bet for max minutes.
Boise State @ San Diego State
Two teams atop the Mountain West looking to beef up their dance card play the first of two as Boise State heads to San Diego to take on the Aztecs. Boise State is 18-4 on the season and 14-3 in MWC play. Derrick Alston (G/F, 7800) is their alpha player who can be a bit scoring dependent at times. SDSU plays stellar defense and at a slower pace, so keep that in mind. After Alston, Mladen Armus (F, 6200) and Abu Kigab (F, 6100) patrol the paint about should find buckets easier to come by than their last series against USU Neemias Queta. I think both are safe in cash formats. Marcus Shaver (G, 5700) has hit only 20 DK once in his last 6 so he is a fade for me. RayJ Dennis (G, 4900) has a solid floor due to his ancillary production so I’d play him over Shaver.
For SDSU (17-4, 11-3) it is all about Jordan Schakel (G/F, 7000) and Matt Mitchell (F, 6400). I prefer Mitchell of the two, but both are playable in all formats. The Aztecs do exercise a deep bench, so the rest of the mentions aren’t without risk. Trey Pulliam (G, 5500) is the play if you base your roster on recent form. Terrell Gomez (G, 5000) is the scoring dependent wing that does little else. In the post Joshua Tomaix (F, 4600) is boringly steady at 3x, while Nathan Mensah (F, 4200) is the GPP dart who occasionally smashes.
Washington State @ Arizona
Washington State is coming off a dramatic triple OT win over Stanford in a game Noah Williams (G, 8800) went nuclear, dropping 40 real points. His price is through the roof, especially if Issac Bonton (G, 7900) returns. Bonton is day to day, so keep your eyes peeled on his status. The triple OT really impacted the Cougars pricing, as Andrej Jakimovski (F, 6300) and Alijaz Kunc (F, 5200) are now priced up. Efe Abogidi (F, 6000) price has remained constant and he’s probably the safest of the bigs. Dishon Jackson (F, 4300) is a potential punt option as well, although the front court is getting a bit crowed lately.
Azoulas Tubelis (F, 7200) has 30+ DK in 3 straight and had 12 points and 9 boards in the first matchup and his priced hasn’t changed much, so he’s in play. Hard not to like James Akinjo (G, 6900) under $7k as well. He’s scored 20 real points in back-to-back games and dropped 38.8 DK points in their first matchup. Jordan Brown (F, 6500) had a spike game last time out, but generally has underperformed especially at a higher price point. Bennedict Mathurin (G/F, 5000) has seen a decline in minutes lately, but at least his price is down, and he dropped 41 DK in their first matchup. Part of his decline in minutes is due to Kerr Kriisa (G, 4100), who is getting over 20 minutes a game and has some up and down games, typically of any Euro frosh.
Northwestern @ Minnesota
I’m old enough to remember when Northwestern was 3-0 in conference play. 13 conference losses later, they are at 3-13 heading into the Barn. Both teams play above average pace, while MN defends the 3 well. For Northwestern, Chase Audige (G, 6900) has 29% shot share and steal upside. His price is down $1k so he’s a viable tourney option as the Wildcat alpha. Pete Nance (F, 6100) has solid usage, rebounding, and a bit of block side. He’s a high floor play. After that, you are looking at tourney options only. Boo Buie (G, 4600) did get 32 minutes last game and smashed value, so he’s a potential value option if you think he can re-find his early season magic. The rest are dart throws.
Marcus Carr (G, 7500) is dealing with a foot injury, but is expected to play. He goes HAM at home and the matchup is good, it’s truly about his health at this point. Jamal “Smashburn,” Jr. (G, 6000) is playing well in extended minutes of late, but the price jump really hurts his upside. At their prices, Brandon Johnson (F, 5500) might provide a bit more upside, but both are certainly playable. Liam Roberts (F, 5000) is probably closer to doubtful than questionable, but that price point is ridiculously low if he has two working ankles. Tre’ Williams (G/F, 4200) is the other beneficiary of the Gopher injuries, as he’s seen 30+ minutes in back-to-back, making him a viable punt option.
#4 Ohio State @ Michigan State
The Buckeyes are in East Lansing to face a surging Sparty team. EJ Liddell (F, 7900) has been the dynamo all season. I do like this matchup in spite of Michigan St playing better defensively; 5x last time. Duane Washington (G, 6400) is a more versatile scorer than last season, but he still relies heavily on the 3 ball. Sparty holding teams to 30% from there so risky tournament play. Justice Sueing (G/F, 5700) has been way more pedestrian of late. Matchup isn’t terrific but price is down some, so you can try him in GPP. CJ Walker(G, 5600) has been steady and a good cash option. Looks like Kyle Young (F, 5500) is out so could open up more PT for Zed Key (F, 3400). I do like the matchup if he can secure minutes.
Aaron Henry (F, 7400) has come to life the last couple of games, both 5x. He’s been tremendous getting to the cup and converting. I like him to keep it going. Josh Langford (G, 6300) is coming off a weird 16 rebound game. Don’t see a repeat of that, while he does look good, pricing doesn’t work out. Not a great matchup for sharp-shooter Gabe Brown (F, 4700). Joey Hauser (F, 4300) could be interesting with Young out, 5x last game. Rocket Watts (G, 4200) is back? (I guess). 31 mpg over last 2 and 6x last game so maybe do it.
#9 Iowa @ #4 Michigan
The best offense against the best defense by the efficiency numbers. It’s tough to say which Luka Garza (F, 9800) will show up or if he can overcome Michigan’s stifling D-sticks on the road. If you’re a Buckethead that likes more certainty paying elite prices, you may want to back off tonight. Joe Wieskamp (G/F, 8700) is at an all-time high, for good reason. He hasn’t fallen below 33 DK in 6 games. Certainly not a smash spot and cooled off a touch last game but playable in both formats. CJ Fredrick (G, 4200) is fully back averaging 30 mpg his last two. That has come at the expense of my best man, Jack Nunge (F, 4300) who only played 7 mins in that stretch. Tough to say if this is a trend or just matchup tinkering.
Hunter Dickinson (F, 8200) is close to a season-high price. He’s netted a couple 40s in the last 3 games. I don’t respect Garza’s defense, so I think Hunter is in a decent spot for GPP. Franz Wagner (G/F, 7300) is your quintessential do-it-all. I do like him tonight as the pace will favor him. Similarly for Isaiah Livers (F, 7100), who I love tonight. After a couple tough games, his price is down $1000. This is a great spot for him to return to form. Don’t expect a slate-breaker but should be safe. Mike Smith (G, 5500) has been super important to Michigan’s success, but he’s an average DFS player. You can take a shot with him in GPP but probably a safer cash play. Same deal for Eli Brooks (G, 5300)
Prize Picks 2/25/21
Charles Bassey
WKU
Houston will be the Hilltoppers toughest opponent to date. Bassey is an incredible talent but WKU has also only played 2 games in the past month. If Bassey was cruising in peak form, I’d have pause. That is not the case. Bassey goes UNDER 37.8
– Joe
Luka Garza
Iowa
I’ve been publicly sleeping on Michigan all season. All they do is keep winning, largely thanks to their top ranked defense. Iowa will give them all they have but I think Michigan will make the other guys beat them, which is why I’m taking him UNDER 38.
– James
Evan Mobley
USC
What could go wrong with taking the under on three of the best bigs in college basketball? Colorado has plenty of bigs to run at Mobley, they defend the 2 at a top 75 rate, and don’t turn the ball over or get blocked a lot, so give me the UNDER 39.0.
– Byrd