As content providers, 10-game slates are a bit of a grind. However, we might make an exception for this one. The SEC is providing a few massive over/unders for us, but even some of the middle tier games in the Big East, Big 12, and B1G are providing a lot of DFS excitement. With so many great games to choose from, ownership should be spread out and we expect a LOT of scoring tonight.
In addition to our flamethrower DFS content, we’ve got our PrizePicks plays below as well. We had a 3-0 night last night and have hit at least 2 of 3 PPs every day for the last week. It’s a great time to fatten your bankrolls as we get closer to March, just like Surfride22 did last Friday. We love seeing Bucketheads rocking the @cbb_dfs logo, ps. We’ll keep bringing the heat all the way through March, so make your best lineups and win all the money!!
Ole Miss @ #24 Missouri
Ole Miss won this meeting at home in convincing fashion back on February 10th. In that game Devontae Shuler (G, 7000) and Luis Rodrigues (G/F, 5400) each had 15 points. Both of these guys can stuff ancillary stats making them solid cash play again tonight. Jarkel Joiner (G, 5000) had 21 in that game, but is more of a GPP target as he hasn’t scored over double figures outside of that contest in his last 5. KJ Buffen (F, 5600) and Romello White (F, 4900) are also playable. I prefer Buffen as his minutes are back up and he’s gone 5x/4x/5x in his last 3.
The loss to Ole Miss was the first of three straight for the Tigers dropping them to #24 in the rankings. They did earn a win last time out against South Carolina on Saturday. That game featured the return of their primary big Jeremiah Tilmon (F, 6000), who missed 2 of the 3 losses. Tilmon is in play tonight especially at home. Dru Smith (G, 7300) is the highest priced Tiger. At this price point I think there are better options on the slate, but Dru’s current form is stellar with 30+ DK in 6-of-7. Other Tigers worth noting are Xavier Pinson (G, 6000) and Mark Smith (G/F, 5000). Pinson has a ridiculous shot share on this team, and Mark Smith always has discounted GPP appeal.
Georgia Tech @ #16 Virginia Tech
On the road against one of the tougher defenses in the league, don’t get carried away stacking Yellow Jackets on your roster. Moses Wright (F, 8200) is your safest option, 4x/5x/5x in last 3, leading the team in shot share. He’s a better cash than GPP play. Jose Alvarado (G, 7600) and Michael Devoe (G, 7400) are both worthy GPP plays, but you’ll have to take your pick. Either is capable of going off on a given night. Jordan Usher (G/F, 6500) is overpriced for this game. No one else on the roster really jumps out.
Hard to bet against a guy with 52 and 57 DK games under his belt in his last 3. Unfortunately, his last 3 games were over 2 weeks ago #covidsucks. Pretty solid matchup at home for Keve Aluma (F, 9300). He should have rebounding and 3-pt upside. I like Justyn Mutts (F, 7600) as well, however his recent price increase ($1100) makes him less attractive. Hunter Cattoor (G, 5400) is in great form and GTech giving up 37% from 3 so some upside here. Keep an eye out for Tyrece Radford (G, 6600) though, some chatter of a possible return. The other guys are more or less darts.
Connecticut @ Georgetown
UConn has nice match-up against a Georgetown team that is the 2nd worst defense in the Big East, but playing at the league’s 3rd fastest pace. James Bouknight(G, 7700) is still underpriced so get him in now before he hits 9k the next time he is on a slate. RJ Cole (6900) is seeing his price decline, but until it is close to 6k I am not interested. Tyrese Martin (G/F, 6600) is a much safer play. At the forward spots the rotation gets a little wonky lately. Isaiah Whaley (F, 5900) has the safest minutes, but is at a season low price point due to 4 clunkers and a smash in his last 5. Adama Sanogo (F, 4300) and Tyler Polley (F, 3400) have shown big time upside if the game script calls for it, but that is a gamble where you are hoping to hit a game flow.
The Hoyas have played much better winning 4-of-6 in Big East play, but they are dogs tonight. Jamarko Pickett (G/F, 8000) and Jahvon Blair (G, 7100) still are playing all the minutes and dominating the ball for GU. Qudus Wahab (F, 6200) plays 30 minutes, which is rare for a true center these days and is always a DD threat. Chudier Bile (F, 5800) is in good form, but there are better options to probably target in this range on a 10-game slate. If you want cheaper Hoya exposure perhaps Dante Harris (G, 5200) is your guy. He is playing all the minutes right now and had 14-7-8 (35.3 DK) in their last game.
#17 Kansas @ #14 Texas
A KU team left for dead has won 5-straight but will face a hungry Texas team that routed KU 84-59 back in early Jan. Shaka’s Longhorns have lost 4 of his last 6, so this is a huge game for Texas tonight. For the Jayhawks, Jalen Wilson (F, 7900) has played better of late and matches up well against Texas, but he’s priced up a ton, on the road, and $7900 is a lot to pay for a balanced KU roster. Big Dave McCormack (F, 6500) remains a boom or bust tourney option, but he’s playing some of his best basketball of the season. Christian Braun (G/F, 5800) probably has the highest ceiling/lowest floor of the remaining guards, while Marcus Garrett (G, 6000) and Ochai Agbaji (G, 5900) are more of 4x cash options. Bryce Thompson (G, 3600) will play his first game without the protective glove on his shooting hand and is a hail mary punt option on the road.
Andrew Jones (G/F, 6900) is priced down and is the clear alpha of the guards. He’s a solid cash target with a little upside. Matthew Coleman III (G, 6700) showed upside last game, but he’s priced up a bit here and generally more of a 4x type player this season. Courtney Ramey (G, 6200) had a fantastic game Saturday up until the point he tried to fight his teammates, so assuming he isn’t in the doghouse, he’s a boom or bust tourney option against a KU team known to get torched from 3. Somehow Jericho Sims (F, 5500) has been a steadier contributor than 5-star Greg Brown (F, 5600). Brown definitely has more upside, but certainly a tourney option only. Springy Kai Jones (F, 4100) has spike games on occasion if you are desperate.
Notre Dame @ Louisville
Nate Laszewski (F, 7200) is seeing a price increase after some decent games, 6x/4x/5x in 3 of last 4. Not a great matchup here, so I’m probably off him. Prentiss Hubb (G, 6700) can rack up assists and leading in shot share but shot not going in of late. The Cardinals are the best in the league at guarding the 3 so might be unlikely he turns it around tonight. Juwan Durham (F, 6600) has been rock solid lately, and I do like his matchup as Louisville does give up points in the paint. You can look at Dane Goodwin (G/F, 6300) as well, he’s fairly priced; better suited for cash. Would fade the shooters, Trey Wertz (G, 5400) and Cormac Ryan (G, 5300) in this matchup.
Carlik Jones (G, 7500) has struggled shooting lately, but he’ll play a ton of minutes and has steal upside. He’s always a threat to smash so take advantage of the price cut. David Johnson (G, 6800) is also priced down. He’s a GPP play all the way, but I like his rebounding upside here and good for a couple steals as well. I really like Samuell Williamson (G/F, 6400) who has started to realize his potential lately. Huge rebound upside here, and he’s been way more aggressive scoring of late. Jae’Lyn Withers (F, 5200) has a nice matchup if you can stomach the lack of PT. The only other player to note is Malik Williams (F, 3600) who came back off a foot injury with 17 mins vs UNC. He could have a larger role going forward.
#5 Illinois @ Michigan State
59/50/53 DK…that is 3 of Ayo Dosunmu’s (G, 9500) last 4 games. He’s putting up DFS numbers that we don’t see too often from a guard. He will draw Henry tonight and a Sparty team that has looked much better of late, so wouldn’t be a terrible idea to take a night off. We loved Kofi Cockburn (F, 8500) vs Minny, but Coach Underwood elected to give the big man some rest in a blowout, so he didn’t reap the massive matchup advantage. He’ll have another one tonight as Michigan State has been giving up huge games to big men all season. Sparty is the league’s best three point defensive team, so not as high on Trent Frazier (G, 5600) and Adam Miller (G/F, 4000) in this one. Andre Curbelo (G, 3600) and Giorgi Bezhanishvili (F, 3500) aren’t bad punt options as they could both play a larger role here, particularly Curbelo.
Aaron Henry (F, $7700) has been in beast mode lately, hitting 5x against Indiana. Illinois has done a good job taking away opposing teams’ main offensive threat, so Henry is probably better suited for cash tonight. Similar story for Josh Langford (G, 5700). Gabe Brown (F, 5000) can get hot from 3 like he did against the Hoosiers. Illinois giving up 35% from 3, so he’s playable but mind the $1300 price increase. I hate Joey Hauser’s (F, 4500) recent playing time, but I do love the matchup. Illinois has struggled against pick n pop bigs, so he might be a nice surprise if he can stay in the game. Rocket Watts (G, 3900) played 32 mins last game ?♂️. I mean, really just a big shoulder shrug to the rest of the roster as well. Good luck!
#10 West Virginia @ TCU
TCU will try to slow pace at home, but their defense has struggled most of the season. The Horned Frogs try to limit threes but give up a lot of easy baskets inside the arc. We’ve got massive price drops on Miles McBride (G, 7800) and Derek Culver (F, 7500). Culver showed his volatility on Saturday but has a high ceiling and profiles well against the interior TCU D. McBride has a higher floor with similar ceiling, making him a solid target in all formats. Sean McNeil (G, 5500) and Taz Sherman (G, 4900) are scoring dependent options, while Emmitt Matthews, Jr. (F, 4800) made us look good on the podcast, dropping 27 DK and helping Byrd take down a two-way tie for 1st in the Showdown of the Week slate on Saturday. His price is up, and the matchup isn’t as good, but he’ll play a lot of minutes.
This feels like a good spot for some positive regression for RJ Nembhard (G ,7200) and Mike Miles (G, 6400), who are both priced down and lead the team in usage. Kevin Samuel (F, 6100) has played better recently, hitting 4x or better in 3 of his last 4 with increased minutes. He matches up well to the physicality of Culver down low but needs to avoid foul trouble. Outside the top 3, TCU plays a very deep bench, and no one stands out.
Saint John’s @ #8 Villanova
Nova will be looking for revenge from their 70-59 loss to the Johnnie’s earlier this season. Vegas expects a lot more points in this matchup, as St. John’s plays as fast as possible and while their D has improved some, they are still giving up a ton of easy baskets. Nova has been surprisingly bad defensively as well, especially from behind the arc. Despite 4-12 shooting, Julian Champagnie (G/F, 8700) scored 38 DK in the first matchup and is a double-double threat every night. Posh Alexander (G, 6900) is priced down quite a bit and while he’s had some struggles recently, he had 35 DK in the first matchup and has shown 5x upside in the past. Rasheem Dunn (G, 6200) is playing a ton of minutes of late, even with Greg Williams likely back, but he’s a risky tourney option at this price. Isaih Moore (F, 5500) and Dylan Addae-Wusu (G, 4800) are the steadiest options left, but both play less than 25 minutes per game making them tourney options only.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 8400) had 40 DK in the first matchup and is priced appropriately as a high floor play. Collin Gillespie (G, 7900) is a great player in a great pace-up environment, but he struggled in the first matchup and doesn’t have the ceiling like some similarly priced players. Justin Moore (G, 6500) is a high floor play at a fair price point. He hasn’t smashed many slates, but he’s been a solid cash game target all year. Jermaine Samuels (F, 6500) has a higher ceiling and lower floor than Moore, making him a tourney option. The nice thing for Nova is generally these are the 4 guys scoring most of the points, so you know where the DK production is coming from.
Florida @ Auburn
Freshman Sharife Cooper (G, 8300) is at his lowest price point since his first week playing college basketball. He needs 33.2 to hit 4x value. He’s done that in 9 of 12 career games. After Cooper, Allen Flanigan (G, 6800) has been incredibly consistent over his last 4 so nothing not to like there. JT Thor (F, 6300) and Jaylin Williams (F, 5300) will hold down the interior. Thor in better form, but I like Williams of the two. Guards Devan Cambridge (5100) and Jamal Johnson (4400) are both live GPP darts.
Colin Castleton (F, 7300) is down $400 and is the best big man in this game. Big time block upside and a very high floor. Tre Mann (G, 7100) is a little more volatile for the price, but game flow fits his style. For those watching Scottie Lewis (G, 4300), he played 27 minutes last game, which is encouraging. The stats will come. I prefer Lewis to Noah Locke (G, 5000) and Tyree Appleby (G, 6300), but in this game environment, neither of those two are bad plays. Last note on the Gators, Anthony Duruji (F, 4700) has his minutes going back up, but his price went up $1,000 as well.
LSU @ Georgia
Play everyone! The total here is one of the highest we have seen on a slate this year, and pricing is pretty favorable on both sides. LSU’s big four are awesome plays on any night and this match-up screams stack. If I were to put them in order, I’d go Cam Thomas (G, 7400) and Darius Days (F, 7000) first, due to their GPP upside. Trendon Watford (F, 7800) and Javonte Smart (G, 7000) are in that second tier, mainly due to name recognition and likely higher ownership. Josh LeBlanc (F, 5100) will get around 20 minutes if you want cheaper exposure at forward. Aundre Hyatt (G, 3900) is the real punt play here. Hyatt has averaged 23.6 minutes and 4x in his last 3.
For UGA, I will limit my time screaming for extended minutes to be given to KD Johnson (G, 5800). I am playing him though. Sahvir Wheeler (G, 8100) busted out for 48 DK on Saturday raising his price 1400. He’s still fine tonight, but the 6700 price tag from Saturday would have been nice. Speaking of Saturday, on our pod we cautioned about the volatile nature of Toumani Camara (F, 6700) and he ended up with just 15.3 DK. He should be better in this one and is $500 buck less thanks to that effort. Other Bulldogs that will give us cheap exposure to a fun game include Tye Fagan and Justin Kier at 4200. PJ Horne (F, 3800) is cheaper than that, and will do very little in 30+ minutes on the floor. Minutes = opportunity though.
Prize Picks 2/23/21
Keve Aluma
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech not a great rebounding team and have been a little soft defensively inside as well. He’ll have some block upside, plus Aluma is just on one right now, which is why he should get OVER 32.5.
– James
Tre Mann
Florida
Not just their team leader in usage and shot share, Mann also has top 20 rebounding, assist, and steal rates in SEC play. Against an Auburn team that can get sloppy at times, I think Mann goes OVER 27.2.
– Joe
RJ Nembhard
TCU
The lowest total in the last 7 WVU games is 148, so should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points for Nembhard, who is TCU’s highest usage player. Give me the OVER 28.0.
– Byrd