Tuesday Now a 6-game Slate After Another Weather Cancellation

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Many of us in the country are a little chilly today, and have been for a while. No I am not referring to Prize Picks (which we hit 2-0 yesterday with a DNP), but I am referring to the outdoor temperatures that in many state is sub 10 degrees. Monday the CBB schedule did little to take our mind off the cold. Tonight it’s much better, so for at least a couple hours we can sit back on the couch under a blanket and disappear into a warm gym, with sneakers squeaking and coaches barking.

@CBB_DFS is coming in form the cold to watch some hoops!

This slate started out as a 7-gamer, but Auburn and Mississippi State has been moved to Thursday due to icy road conditions. The now 6-game slate features half of its point totals north of 150 according to Las Vegas, and many of those games featuring contrasting styles. The B1G also has two grinder match-ups on the slate, while Providence and UConn get thing started at 5:30 in a defensive minded affair.

Overall this slate should provide an excellent distraction for our frozen Bucketheads. We are all written up below, so pick and choose your plays and win all the money tonight!

UConn -5.5, (133) – 5:30

Providence @ UConn

We’ve got an ugly total here, so let’s not go overboard. The big news is the return of James Bouknight (G, 6600), who is cleared to play. He’s at a phenomenal price point, but we’d love to see a report on how many minutes he’ll play. If we can get 25+ minutes, he’s worth a shot. Since we are talking UConn, we’ll continue with the home team first. Tyrese Martin (G/F, 7200) has benefited from Bouknight’s absence, taking 21% of the shots in a balanced UConn offense. He’s fine but doesn’t stand out given the overall game environment. RJ Cole (G, 6900) went nuts last game, but highly doubt that happens again tonight. I’d rather look to Isaiah Whaley (F, 6900) at the same price point, who has the ability to impact the game in a variety of ways. Adama Sanogo (F, 5400) has played well of late, but price is creeping up a bit which limits his ceiling. Andre Jackson (G, 4000) has potential as well, but I’d like to see what his role looks like with Bouknight back before I feel confident investing in him.
 
The visiting Friars are led by David Duke (G, 8400), who is a willing rebounder and leads the team in shot share and assist rates. He had 32 DK points despite 5-14 shooting a week ago vs. UConn, so he continues to be a viable option in all formats. On the other hand, Noah Horchler (F, 8000) is only viable as a hail mary lowest of low ownership plays, as he’s obscenely overpriced. Nate Watson (F, 7800) is slightly overpriced as well, but he’s a consistent presence down low and his length will be needed against UConn. He had 31.5 DK vs. the Huskies a week ago. AJ Reeves (G/F, 6400) is a scoring dependent tourney option who is in good form, but the game environment is bad and UConn is above average defending the 3. With Jared Bynum (G, 3600) back, it’s hard to press the Alyn Breed (G, 5000) button, especially given his poor form. Bynum would be intriguing if we knew he was going to play 20+ minutes at that price.

UConn -5.5, (133) – 5:30
Purdue -5.5, (135.5) – 6:00

Michigan State @ Purdue

Aaron Henry (F, 7900) has a slight price reduction after a bad outing against Iowa in limited minutes. Had close to 4x the first time vs Purdue. Somewhere in that neighborhood is where I see him tonight. Not a great matchup for Joey Hauser (F, 5100) either. Only 3x last time at this price, he’s capable of 5x but still a gamble. Josh Langford (G, 5300) might be slightly more appealing in GPP since he can create his own shots. He’s emerged as the alpha scorer on this team. Gabe Brown (F, 3800) got 15 points in 21 mins against Iowa, so minutes have increased of late. Marcus Bingham (F, 4400) is playable as a low-cost dart if you need him.
 
Trevion Williams (F, 8200) hit 5x in East Lansing. You know what he is by now but price is down a bit, so definitely a nice option in tournaments. Jaden Ivey (G, 5800) is increasing in price to match his increase in productivity. The freshman is hit or miss and matchup isn’t great. Sasha Stefanovic (G, 4800) is at a season-low price point. He’s been horrendous shooting the ball since coming back (0-fer) but he is at home and due for positive regression. Eric Hunter (G, 5200) is a fine cash play per usual. I like Brandon Newman (G/F, 4500). He’s priced nicely and 4x in last 2 games. Zach Edey (F, 4600) is a bit unpredictable. His minutes can vary widely depending on what kind of foul trouble Williams gets into. Only 9.75 DK against Sparty last time. Mason Gillis (F, 4800) is playing more steady minutes. Has at least 4x in 3 of last 4 games.

Purdue -5.5, (135.5) – 6:00
Illinois -12.5, (143) – 8:00

Northwestern @ #5 Illinois

Chase Audige (G, 7500) has been on a tear lately since playing more on the ball. He leads the team in usage and shot share (27/29). He’s at a season-high price after going 4x/4x/6x/6x in 4 of last 6; had one of his worst games vs the Illini however (12 DK). Pete Nance (F, 6600) didn’t shoot particularly well against Illinois (3-12), but he’s a big matchup problem as he can stretch the defense. He’s playable in GPP. Ryan Young (F, 5800) was a huge problem for Illinois, scoring 22 DK in 15 minutes. He’s starting now and 40/30 mpg in each of last 2. Miller Kopp (G, 5000) and Robbie Beran (F, 3500) are shot-dependent GPP targets in a solid matchup. Illinois struggled with Anthony Gaines (G, 4300) last game and Boo Buie (G, 4500) had his worst game of the year (0.5 DK). Both are GPP gambles.
 
Ayo Dosunmu (G, 9700), yes. Kofi Cockburn (F, 9300), yes. Trent Frazier (G, 6100) will give you max minutes but needs shots to go down to get home; did hit 4x last time. Same story with Adam “Ace Wolf” Miller (G, 4600) who’s price is creeping again. Andre Curbelo (G, 3700) has had a couple stinkers but this is a great game for him to log heavy minutes and get back to his norm. 

Illinois -12.5, (143) – 8:00
Auburn -5, (145.5) – 8:00

Mississippi State @ Auburn – Postponed

Due to icy conditions, this game has been moved to Thursday at 4:00 PM

Auburn -5, (145.5) – 8:00
Arkansas -3, (151) – 6:00

Florida @ Arkansas

The Gators have been off for almost two weeks with COVID issues, but return to the court in Fayetteville tonight. When last we saw them, South Carolina was snapping a 4-game winning streak. Tonight they team will see another fast paced team in the Razorbacks who have cracked the top 25 for the first time since 2018. Pace of play should benefit Tre Mann (G, 7400) and Scottie Lewis (G/F, 5200). Both are live in all formats, but prefer Lewis at the discounted price. Noah Locke (G, 5500) and Tyree Appleby (G, 6500) aren’t on my radar tonight as they are a tad overpriced and shot dependent. At forward Colin Castleton (F, 7300) was 5x in his last two before the pause, and Omar Payne (4100) had been taking minutes from Duruji (3700). Just avoid the latter two. 

The Razorbacks have really leaned on three freshman lately and Moses Moody (G/F, 7000) is the best of the bunch. Davonte Davis (G, 5600) and Jaylin Williams (F, 4000) are the other two and each logged near or over 30 minutes in a win on the road at #10 Missouri last week. I think all three are in play here. Justin Smith (F, 6300) and Jalen Tate (G, 6300) should be decent cash options, whereas Connor Vanover (F, 6000) is GPP only. On the cheap, you can play Desi Sills (G, 3900) or JD Notae (G, 4900) in GPPs, but the aforementioned freshmen are eating into their minutes. 

Arkansas -3, (151) – 6:00
Mizzou -3.5, (153) – 6:00

#20 Missouri @ Georgia

Jeremiah Tillmon (F, 6500) didn’t make the trip so Mizzou will be without their go-to big man. Filling his spot will be Mitchell Smith (F, 4700) who cruised past 4x in this role last game. Kobe Brown (F, 5300) could also make an impact, but this game on both sides will be dominated by the play on the perimeter. Dru Smith (G, 7300) has gone over 4x in 6/7 and brings nice steal upside. Xavier Pinson (G, 6200) and his 30% shot share will let it fly in a game that should have a lot of possessions. Mark Smith (G/F, 4300) is going to play 30 minutes and probably take 5 threes which is a lot to like in a GPP flyer.  

As it has been all season Sahvir Wheeler (G, 7700) and Toumani Camara (F, 7600) have been the Bulldogs best players. Each should be solid this evening, but my favorite play lately has been KD Johnson (G, 5900). Having played just 10 games he owns a 29% usage rate and a Pinson-esque shot share. While he is limited in minutes, he will maximize them having gone 5x in his last two. The rest of Georgia is hard to trust, but Justin Kier (G, 5100), Tye Fagan (G/F, 4400), and PJ Horne (F, 4300) will get good minutes. I like the Horne the best of those three. 

Mizzou -3.5, (153) – 6:00
Saint John’s -1.5, (155) – 7:30

Xavier @ Saint John’s

We’ve got a potential shootout here in Jamaica, NY as the Johnnie’s look to avenge a 69-61 loss earlier in the year to Xavier. Zach Freemantle (F, 8300) is coming off a massive game and St. Johns can be exposed down low. He’s at a season high price point and only had 18 DK in their first matchup, but you’ll get low ownership in GPPs for a guy that’s shown a nice ceiling this year. Paul Scruggs (G, 8100) is probably priced appropriately for a pace up game and current form is excellent. His ability to handle pressure will be a key storyline to watch. He struggled in their first matchup, but has a high possession rate, elite assist rates, and some steal upside. Nate Johnson (G, 6000) has been super consistent of late, hitting over 4x in 3 straight with steady minutes. Jason Carter (F, 4900) had 16 rebounds in their first matchup and is priced down a ton after a rough 3-game stretch, so he’s best suited for tourneys as a risk/reward option at a fair price. You could also look at Adam Kunkel (G, 4500) or Colby Jones (G, 4200) as value options in a pace-up game.
 
Julian Champagnie (F, 8600) went 4-14 from the field vs. X the first time, but still managed 32 DK points. He’s a high floor option with upside who will likely catch lower ownership as everyone will focus on Posh Alexander (G, 7100) at a cheap price point. Outside of a clunker last game, Alexander has been great, living in the low to mid 30s in DK scoring. It’s a big game for the Johnnies tourney hopes and his price is right in all formats. Rasheem Dunn (G, 6400) has clearly locked in his spot in this lineup, as he played every minute of crunch time against Butler last game. He might be slightly overpriced, but I’m not going to argue with anyone trying to find a way to get exposure to this game. Dylan Addae-Wusu (G, 4600) is another player earning more minutes on a St. John’s team that is stacked with depth. He can do a bit of everything and has over 20 minutes in 4 straight. Isaih Moore (F, 4300) has a wider range of outcomes than Addae-Wusu, as he probably has a lower floor but higher ceiling, especially at a cheaper price. Even Marcellus Earlington (G/F, 4100) is averaging around 4x over his last 3, which is why it helps to find exposure to games with tons of possessions. Vince Cole (G/F, 3500) and Greg Williams Jr. (G, 3400) round out the rotation and are high risk punt options.

Saint John’s -1.5, (155) – 7:30

Prize Picks – 2/16/21

Tre Mann

Florida

I like him OVER 27.2 against the paced-up opponent. Razorbacks are bottom of the league in FG% and he should have some steal and rebound upside as well

– James

Xavier Pinson

Missouri

We said we’d never list him again if he missed, but he smashed last time he was on PP and you can’t get a better matchup than Georgia. Give us the OVER 22.6. #Pinson4Life

– Byrd

R.J. Cole

Connecticut

With Bouknight returning and this game being the slowest on the slate. I don’t see RJ having a big night. The Friars defend the 3 well, and that may be the only looks he gets. Cole goes UNDER 25.2.

– Joe