$10,000 and 4 Conference Championships Up for Grabs

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Selection Sunday is finally here, Bucketheads! Tonight brackets drop and the Big Dance stage will be set. Our plan is to do our first ever Bracket Breakdown podcast tomorrow and then dive into every match-up the Madness has to offer. It’s amazing to think that we are wrapping up our 3rd year @CBB_DFS. It has been an incredible journey and we are looking forward to finishing strong. We appreciate all of you who have been with us throughout the year(s). Without the Bucketheads there is no @CBB_DFS.

Today we have a 4 game slate with a fat $10,000 purse going to first place. Champions need to be crowned in the A10, AAC, SEC, and B1G and all of these games are on our tight 4-game slate. Overall this slate is diverse with a mix of offensive minded and defensive minded teams. We have high totals and low totals. No one is over $9,000 so the player pool is balanced. This opens up the ability for some diverse builds. While the public may gravitate to the higher totals of the SEC and B1G match-ups, plays from the A10 and AAC game may be where this tournament is won.

Saint Bonaventure -2.5, (128.5) – 12:00

VCU v. Saint Bonaventure

The top two teams in the A-10 face off for the conference championship today. The Bonnie’s were #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency within conference play, while VCU was #2 in defensive efficiency within conference play, hence the lowest o/u on the slate. For the Rams, Nah’Shon Hyland (G, 8600) has been sensational this season. He has 31% shot share and elite steal rates this season and did hit 35 DK vs. the Bonnie’s last game. The game environment isn’t ideal, but he’s certainly “the guy” for VCU. The limited possessions and lack of ceiling make me hesitate on Hason Ward (F, 6200). I’d rather look at Adrian Baldwin, Jr. (G, 5100) and Vince Williams (F, 5200). Baldwin is playing max minutes, which is a rarity for the VCU roster and gives him a higher floor, while Williams price point is much more favorable compared to Ward, giving him a more reasonable shot at a 4x or greater return. Jamir Watkins (F, 4800) and Corey Douglas (F, 4300) are flyers with decent production of late despite very limited minutes, but just keep in mind this will be a defensive minded battle for A-10 supremacy.
 
The Bonnie’s only play 5 guys, which is heaven for DFS players. Osun Osunniyi (F, 8300) is a beast on the board with shot blocking upside. He averaged 33 DK vs. VCU this year and has shown big time upside on the year, so he’s in play despite the ugly game environment. Kyle Lofton (G, 7000) played more minutes than anyone in the nation this season. He did struggle against VCU both games but is generally a high floor play at a reasonable price point. Dominick Welch (G, 6400) is their best shooter and averaged a little over 4x against VCU this year, but certainly a boom or bust tourney option only. Jalen Adaway (G/F, 6000) has scored double figures in 8 of his last 9 and did have 32 DK vs. VCU last game, but again, this game environment is rough. People might still be scarred from the last time Jaren Holmes (G, 5900) was on a slate vs. VCU, as he was priced at $7200 and scored 5 DK points. He has the highest shot share on the team, recent form is good, and his price is down so I probably prefer him over the other mid-range targets here. He did drop 42 DK the first time they played VCU as well, so hopefully that 5 DK egg he put up the last time is out of his system.
 

Saint Bonaventure -2.5, (128.5) – 12:00
Houston -13.5, (135.5) – 2:15

Cincinnati v. #7 Houston

There is a lot of uncertainty here for Cincy, who lost Keith Williams (G/F, 7200) to an undisclosed injury last game. Keep your eyes peeled on his status, but could be bad news for the Bearcats, who lost to Houston by 38 on Feb. 21st. If he were unable to go, Mason Madsen (G, 4400) would see a lot more time and would be a great value option. In general, I’m hesitant to roll out players against Houston’s elite defense. Jeremiah Davenport (G/F, 6900) has shown some upside recently and would see increased usage if Williams missed, but his price is up a bit making him a low owned tourney option. Tari Eason (F, 6100) is priced up as well, so hard to expect anything beyond 4x. Mika Adams-Woods (G, 5300) has shown some 5x+ upside recently as well, so he’s not a bad cheap option despite the tough matchup. David DeJulius (G, 4200) magically opted back into the season recently as well, so he’s a flyer, especially if Williams is unable to go. Houston’s D is elite so hard to get too excited, but it’s a short slate so options are limited.
 
For Houston, Quentin Grimes (G/F, 8000) is very reasonably priced as the best scorer on this Cougars squad and he had 39 DK in the first matchup vs. Cincy. It’s a pace up game as well, so Grimes should be a popular option at this price. DeJon Jarreau (G, 7400) is getting max minutes of late, which traditionally was the only thing holding him back from smashing. He’s more of a tourney option only at this price, but he can fill up a stat sheet. Justin Gorham (F, 6500) is an elite rebounder, but limited offensively, making him a 4x option only. Marcus Sasser (G, 5600) has the 2nd highest shot share on the team and price point is very fair, so don’t hate him in tourneys. There is quite a rotation after the top 4 here, so I’m not as interested in the rest of the Cougs, who would be deeper cut punt options only.

Houston -13.5, (135.5) – 2:15
Illinois -6.5, (148) – 2:30

#9 Ohio State v. #3 Illinois

Everyone was expecting/hoping for an Illinois vs Michigan rematch today, but an injury to Isaiah Livers and a confusing (read: poorly coached) end-game sequence secured the win for the Buckeyes. Everything is going through EJ Liddell (F, 7700) and the former two-time Illinois Mr Basketball makes the Illini bulletin board material every time he plays them. I expect him to stretch Kofi out and get up close to 20 shots. Question will be if he can get enough ancillary stats to be GPP viable. Duane Washington (G, 7500) has evolved into more than just a shooter, actually making him a solid cash play, but I think you can also look at him in GPP as well. CJ Walker (G, 5800) hit 4x last time against the Illini. They will likely stay home on shooters again, allowing him some open driving lanes. One player I really like in GPP is Justice Sueing (F, 5600). He’s been in decent form lately and is a mismatch for the smaller Illinois 4s. Harvard transfer, Seth Towns (F, 3900) is a nice value play. He’s had 21 mpg last two games and can knock down shots. Keep an eye on whether Kyle Young (F, 5000) plays though as that could impact Towns’s minutes.
 
For Illinois, the options are pretty easy. Ayo Dosunmu (G, 8800) and Kofi Cockburn (F, 8500) have stepped their respective games up in the BTT thus far. The Buckeyes did hold both players to close to season lows their last game however, so some risk here if Ohio St can take control of the game. Andre Curbelo (G, 5400) is still a bit matchup dependent but good news is, this is a favorable one. Had close to 6x last time, and he was incredible on both sides of the ball yesterday which bodes well for playing time. Trent Frazier (G, 4900) and Adam Miller (G/F, 4000) both had subpar games against Ohio St last time. Illinois will likely need one of them to get hot today, so you can play either in GPP lineups. I don’t mind Da’Monte Williams (G, 4600) here either. He’s a steady producer and has kept a nice high floor of late. 

Illinois -6.5, (148) – 2:30
Alabama -6, (157.5) – 12:00

LSU v. #6 Alabama

What a way to start the Sunday with an amazing DFS friendly match-up between LSU and Alabama. The Tide swept the season series in convincing fashion, but this one figures to be much closer. LSU, like they have all season, will rely on their core four guys. All four are playable in cash and GPP formats. Guards Cam Thomas (7600) and Javonte Smart (6600) never come off the floor and compliment each others game. Forwards Trendon Watford (7800) and Darius Days (7100) can both break a slate. Days is a little more volatile in his game logs. The 5th spot on the floor has rotated all season for LSU. Currently Eric Gainers (G, 4100) has had 5x in the last two and has played more minutes than Josh LeBlanc (F, 3700). Each could be exposures to a great game environment, but hard to trust.

Like LSU we know the Bama players pretty well by now. Herb Jones (G/F, 8400) had 50-burgers vs. Tennessee and is playing like the SEC player of the year right now. The backcourt is loaded with John Petty (G/F, 6300), Jaden Shackleford (G, 5500), and Jahvon Quinerly (G, 6100) all capable of going off on a given night. Shackleford at 5500 is primed for a bounce back, so expect high ownership. Capable Keon Ellis (G, 4700) is getting additional time with Josh Primo (G, 4000) dealing with an MCL sprain. The forward spot is a little tougher to project. Jordan Bruener (F, 3800) hasn’t really flourished since returning from injury. Some nights Alex Reese (4200) shows out, others it is James Rojas (3300) or Juwan Gary (3400). I tend to avoid this mess altogether, but if you want to win $10k you mighty have to gamble trying to find the one that hits 5-6x.

Alabama -6, (157.5) – 12:00

Prize Picks – 3/14/21

Justice Sueing

Ohio State

He’s gone over in 5 of his last 6 games. He also presents a big mismatch for the smaller Illinois forwards. If Liddell isn’t 100%, he may even take on a primary scoring role as well (which he’s proven to be capable of). I like him to get OVER 20.0

– James

Herb Jones

Alabama

He’s the SEC Player of the Year and Prize Picks has his single bet points line at 10.5. Given that the over/under is 157 in this one points will be scored and Jones will go OVER 10.5 points scored.

– Joe

Marcus Sasser

Houston

Sasser averages 13.6 ppg this season and it’s a pace up game against a Cincy team that might be missing their best player. Give me the OVER 11.5 points scored for another single stat PrizePicks play.

– Byrd