Oh my god, Christmas is here, Bucketheads! The last thing I am going to do is bog you down with a long intro! We have reached the best day of the calendar year! All 16 games are written up below, and we will repeat this process for tomorrow. We went accordion style so you can open and close what you want to read. Dive in! Study up! And win all the f&#k’n money!!!
Our first tip of the tournament is a pick’em between Virginia Tech and Florida. Vegas has the over/under at just 135, but there is some talent here we may want to target. Pace-wise this game won’t be all that up and down as the Gators have slowed significantly in recent weeks. Virginia Tech is the better defense of the two teams, but Florida has the more natural talent.
The issue with Florida lately is how will all that talent be used? Tre Mann (G, 8500) will dominate the ball and get up shots, but on a *cough* 16 game slate that price is a little too much for me. Tyree Appleby (G, 6000) is a good cash option, but we are playing to win this thing, right? I think Collin Castleton (F, 6700) is priced to play. He has 40 DK upside and a Duke-ish personality that should like the big stage. After him, there is some value here with Noah Locke (G/F, 4400), Anthony Duruji (F, 4300) and Scottie Lewis (G, 4200). All are live GPP targets. Locke because of his shooting, Duruji because of his pogo stick athleticism, and Lewis because he is a future NBA player and an elite defender.
Hats off to Mike Young and Virginia Tech. Efficient offensively and stout on the defensive end. Keve Aluma (F, 8500) like Mann, is probably too expensive for me, but what a great fit for this team as a do-it-all 4. Hard to pick who will go off after Aluma. Justyn Mutts (F, 6300) erupted for 40 DK last game, but he can also get you 18. Tyrece Radford (G, 6000) returned and showed little rust getting 30 DK against UNC. Nahiem Alleyne (G/F, 4900) is a safe cash option but lacks ceiling. If we are bargain shopping Hunter Cattoor (G, 4200) and Wassabi Bede (G, 4000) will see plenty of minutes, but I prefer the more talented Gator 4k guys over these two.
161. That is the over/under here – the highest in the opening round on Friday or Saturday. 161. #LFG
Colgate is 14-1 and play at the nation’s 25th fastest tempo. They shoot 40% from 3 and 55% from 2. They do employ a deep bench so finding the right guys here will be crucial. Senior Jordan Burns (G, 7300) has a 31% usage rate and 30% shot share, making him a very appealing option. His minutes are pretty safe around 30, as are Tucker Richardson’s (G/F, 6800). While Burns is the scorer, Richardson will stat stuff across the board. I love both. After those two minutes drop to around 20 and pricing drops to sub-5k for the remainder of the Raiders. This means all of the following plays come with risk, but typically high upside. Nelly Cummings (G, 4300) is probably my favorite of the group. He is scoring dependent, but averaging over 12 ppg. Keegan Records (F, 4700) is the primary post option for the team. He has DD potential given the amount of possessions this game will have. Finally, Jack Ferguson (F, 4600) is another senior that is hitting over 50% from 3 this year while leading the team in attempts. He’ll also mix it up on the boards.
The Razorbacks play at the 17th fastest tempo in the nation. Arkansas star Moses Moody (G/F, 8400) has 45 DK in 4-of-6. I think it goes to 5-of-7 after this one if you want to pay up for him. Justin Smith (F, 7700) has been over 4x this price in 7-of-8. He should eat in this one as well. Jaylin Williams (F, 5700) is expected back for this game, but don’t let that dissuade you from Smith. Going back to the guards, JD Notae (G, 7200) has ridiculous shot and usage rates, but does come off the bench. I am more interested in Jalen Tate (G, 5300). Form isn’t the best and he isn’t offensively gifted like Moody and Notae, but has absolutely smashed some slates this year and the game environment couldn’t be better. Davonte Davis (G, 6500) is the middle ground skill and pricing wise between Notae and Tate if you have problems making decisions. Finally, Connor Vanover (F, 4300), everyone’s favorite 7-3 stretch center, will probably be paced out of this one, so you can’t start him.
The Dragons are far and away the best 16 seed of the 6 in the tournament this year. KenPom has them ranked at #145, ahead of 3 of the 15 seeds. They’re a slow team (#340) and #247 in defensive efficiency, which probably doesn’t bode well.
Camren Wynter (G, 6100) is the alpha scorer for the Dragons. He’s at 26% usage and 27% shot share on the year. Illinois can give up the 3 at times, so he has some upside and will play all game, but recent form is not great. James Butler (F, 6000) will have to matchup against Kofi so not ideal. Zach Walton (G/F, 4700) and Matey Juric (G, 3600) are your typical shooters, some GPP appeal but not much. TJ Bickerstaff (F, 4100) is the one player I would target for the Dragons. He’s in great form, bargain price, and should matchup well against the smaller Illinois 4s.
I think you can play either Ayo Dosunmu (G, 9300) or Kofi Cockburn (F, 9200) in this one. You worry about blow-out being a factor on minutes, but I think Drexel may be able to keep it close enough to keep those guys in the game for enough time. Andre Curbelo (G, 6100) has really turned into a more consistent player over the last month. He should play plenty here and priced fairly. Trent Frazier (G, 5500) isn’t a bad play either for the price, would like to see him get to the bucket. DaMonte Williams (G, 5000) has cash value. This is a game I would target Adam Miller (G/F, 4600). He should get plenty of tick and can cut loose against lesser competition.
We were geeked to see Utah State made the field, but less excited when we saw them matched up vs. Texas Tech. We love us some Neemis Queta, but a Chris Beard coached team in March is a scary opponent. Tech wants to slow this game down and will create turnovers defensively, while Utah St. is equally adept defensively, currently 15th in defensive effective FG% and dominating the glass. Given the undersized front court of Texas Tech, how Chris Beard can neutralize Queta on both ends of the court will be the key to this game.
We mentioned Neemis Queta (F, 9500) multiple times in the opening paragraph, but rightfully so. He’s an elite rebounder, shot blocker, and has enough usage to be a factor offensively. Obviously a sub-130 over/under and massive price tag give us cause for concern, but if you do press the button, I think you’ll get low ownership. Marco Anthony (G/F, 6400) has an outlier 45 DK effort hiking up his price point, which makes him too costly in this game environment. I’d rather look at Justin Bean (F, 6200), who has 35+ DK in 5 of his last 7 as the secondary scorer/rebounder on this Aggies squad. Rollie Worster (G, 5600) is playing all the minutes at PG and while he’s had a few spike games, is generally a sub-4x producer. Brock Miller (G, 4400) may need to hit some shots for Utah St. to contend in this game, so he’s a shot dependent flyer, but again, the game environment isn’t overly sexy here. Finally, Alphonso Anderson (F, 3900) will play around 20 minutes and gets hits shots while he’s on the court who could squeak out a 4x but doesn’t have much upside beyond that.
For Tech, we’ll start with Mac McClung (G, 6600), who has really struggled of late. Despite his struggles, DK refuses to drop his price. We know he’s a talented player and his personality is made for March, but he’s a tourney option only given his current form. I like Kevin McCullar’s (G/F, 7300) ability to impact the game in a variety of ways, but at this price he’s probably a 4x ceiling, making him a better real-life player than DFS option. Kyler Edwards (G, 7000) is a boom or bust tourney option as well. He’s had some 30+ DK outbursts, but is much more scoring dependent than McCullar. Marcus Santos-Silva (F, 5900) could see more minutes, as his strength will be needed down low vs. Queta. He’s not a huge usage guy and there is foul and minutes risk, making him a GPP option only. Our Bucketheads know I love Terrence Shannon, Jr. (G, 5300). He’s still priced to play and appears fully recovered from his ankle injury. I think he’s viable in all formats at this price point, but hard to expect a full smashburger in an ugly game environment. Micah Peavy (G/F, 4600) is extremely talented and will be a heck of a player, but minutes and his recent price bump cap his upside. This should be a heck of a game, so I may just enjoy it from afar and look elsewhere from a DFS perspective on this massive 16 game slate.
This one has a juicy total of 156 as Oral Roberts is going to try and push Ohio State to play at their pace. Will the Golden Eagles be able to get stops though as they come in rated 285th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. Vegas doesn’t think so and has the Buckeye’s at 16-point favorites. Quick math says that is implied point total of 86 for OSU. Yes please.
Duane Washington (G, 8700) and EJ Lidell (F, 8300) are the two primary options that can crush this game from a DFS standpoint. Washington is at a season high price point and that gives me a little pause. All systems go for Lidell though. Justice Sueing (G/F, 6500) has played very well of late and is okay in all formats. CJ Walker (G, 6000) has 5x upside too. Hard to find plays to hate on here. Kyle Young (F, 5800) is questionable with a concussion. He was day-to-day a week ago, so seems likely, but monitor @NCAAFantasyHoop for injury news.
If OSU comes out cold I strongly believe Oral Roberts can make this game interesting. Max Abmas (G, 7600) is the nation’s leading scorer and no one has slowed him down this year. Kevin Obanor (F, 6500) is no pushover in the paint either. Those two both have usage and shot shares over 25%. The rest of the Eagles have their own unique fire power adding to the danger of this team. Kareem Thompson (G/F, 5100) has been near 5x in 4 straight. Carlos Jurgens (G, 4500) rarely comes off the floor. RJ Glasper (G, 4400) is uber-consistent and DeShang Weaver (G, 4000) is in great form.
Baylor is a massive favorite against a Hartford team that lost by 12 to open the year at UConn and by 34 in a neutral site game vs. Nova. They are holding teams to 28.7% from deep, 9th best in the country, so that helps a bit against the 3-point shooting prowess of Baylor. The problem for the Hawks is they aren’t very good at scoring the basketball. They didn’t hit 60 points against the top tier teams earlier this year and I don’t see that improving against an elite Baylor D.
Traci Carter (G, 5700) has the 3rd highest steal rate in the nation and 24% shot share. He’s not the most efficient player on earth, but he’s in good form at least. Speaking of good form, Austin Williams (G, 5200) is rolling of late. The 6’4 guard can do a bit of everything, so he’s probably the safest bet if you want to get weird here. Hunter Marks (F, 4700) and Miroslav Stafl (F, 4400) are the primary bigs down low if you want some international heat in your lineups. Marks plays more minutes, while Stafl is a better rebounder but has somewhat limited minutes. Overall, I’ll probably keep the Hawks in a cage tonight.
There are two concerns from a Baylor perspective. Their prices are high and there is legit blowout risk here. Jared Butler (G, 8900) has 26% shot share, solid assist rates, and steal upside as the lead guard for the Bears. He’s a complete stud, but they do have a balanced offense and he’ll probably only have 25-30 minutes of PT which may limit his upside. Davion Mitchell (G, 8100) has been a high floor play all season, including 46% from deep. Add in MaCio Teague (G/F, 7900), who is on a complete heater of late, and we have 3 strong players in great form that all need 30+ DK to hit value. Baylor should score 80+ points, so there are paths to success here, but the pricing makes it difficult to isolate the right target. Mark Vital (G/F, 6200) is playing more minutes of late and has been incredibly productive. He’s remains a solid cash game target, hitting at least 4x in 6 of his last 7. Hartford does go 6’9/6’10 down low, so Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchou (F, 4200) could see 20+ minutes down low and will certainly have the advantage athletically. We’ve seen Matthew Mayer (G/F, 4500) and Adam Flagler (G,3900) have shown upside throughout the year as dual microwaves off the bench. They have a lot of volatility, so they are definitely tourney options only, but they could get some extra minutes in clean up duty if this one is a blowout.
What was a bigger blow for Georgia Tech? Losing Moses Wright, the ACC Player of the Year, for this game or Sister Jean getting clearance to attend in support of Loyola-Chicago? I lean Sister Jean, although it was probably Wright that moved the line 4 points. The Rambler are now 5.5 point favorites, but for DFS purposes the over under is just 124.5.
Loyola-Chicago has the nation’s most efficient defense and rank 342rd in tempo per Ken Pomeroy. Offensively they are methodical and led by Cameron Krutwig (F, 8700). The 6-9 senior was there as a freshman in 2018 when, behind the grace of Sister Jean, Loyola made an improbably final four run. Krutwig is a bit of a one-man team and will clearly be Georgia Tech’s focus. This means one or two of Braden Norris (G, 5400), Lucas Williamson (G/F, 5200) and Aher Uguak (F, 5300) will need to step up. From a DK perspective I think you can find better game environments and players for the price. For the Ramblers it’s Krutwig or move one.
With Moses Wright (F, 8800) out the back court of Jose Alvarado (G, 7800), Michael Devoe (G, 7700) and Jordan Usher (G/F, 6600) will be leaned on heavily. This group thrives on creating turnovers and converting those into easy buckets. Picking up Wright’s 30 minutes in the rotation will be a combination of Khalid Moore (F, 4000) who is more of a small power forward and potentially Rodney Howard (F, 3300). He has a few games this year where he has seen close to 20 minutes and gone over 4x. Bubba Parham (G, 3800) could also get more run if the team decides to go small.
The magical run of Oregon State has taken them to the Big Dance and matches them up against a Tennessee team that seems to be peaking at the right time. Vegas likes the Vols by 9 and the over/under here is a defensive minded 131. Probably not a lot of DFS options here given the size of the slate, but let’s take a look.
The Beavers Warith Alatishe (F, 7600) has been a double-double machine of late. Yes, Tennessee center John Fulkerson is probable for this one after that nasty elbow to the face, but I still think Alatishe is viable. Ethan Thompson (G, 6800) is as steady as they come, but not much GPP appeal against a stingy Vols D. Jarod Lucas (G, 5400) has had a hot shooting stroke of late, and Zach Reichle (G/F, 4200) is a viable cheap option who gets steady minutes.
Fulkerson (F, 5000) has an appealing price tag if we get more clarity on his status and potential work load. He man Yves Pons (G/F, 6500) does the bulk of the work in the interior where ORSU gives up 53% on 2PT field goals. The guard stable is deep and diverse. So much so that you are playing a little Volunteer roulette when considering one. Jaden Springer (7500) and Keon Johnson (7400) are amazing freshman on the big stage for the first time. Josiah Jordan-James (6300) and Santiago Vescovi (5600) are a little more proven as sophomores. Oregon transfer Victor Bailey Jr. (G, 4000) is an interesting GPP target given his ability to break out and familiarity with the opponent.
A lot of folks are already looking forward to the Illini v. Oklahoma St. Sweet 16 matchup, but the Cowboys better not overlook a sneaky good Liberty team on Friday. Liberty will play as slow as humanly possible offensively, but they are ultra-efficient as well. They will take a massive number of 3s, but are hitting 38.8% from deep which, which is a bit scary if you are a Cowboy fan. For how good Liberty’s offensive metrics are, they are very average defensively in all phases. While there are more trendy upsets, this one could be closer than the experts think.
Darius McGhee (G, 7400) has 29% shot share offensively, but far the most on the team. He gets a few periphery stats as well and his price point is reasonable for his role in the offense, so he’s a viable option in all formats. Kyle Rode (F, 5100) is a good passer at 6’7 and can rebound. He’s very efficient and has slightly increased usage of late. He has 5x or greater in 5 of his last 8 games, so he’s a tourney option. Elijah Cuffe (G/F, 4800) will start at SF and plays a ton of minutes, which gives him a reasonable shot at 4x, just understand he has limited ceiling due to his sub-20% usage. Chris Parker (G, 4500) will see the majority of the minutes at PG while Blake Preston (F, 4300) performed well in a time share at center during the ASUN conference tourney. Parker has been a steady 4x option at a cheap price, but just keep in mind the Cowboys are long and athletic defensively, finishing top 20 in adjusted D per Kenpom.
Big 12 POY Cade Cunningham (G, 10,000) gets a major pace down game against the plodding Flames. He’ll be the #1 overall pick in the draft and his ability to impact the game in all phases gives him a massive ceiling, but the pace and price certainly limit his ability to fully break the slate. Kalib Boone (F, 6800) has seen his price increase, and deservedly so. After a slow, foul plagued start to the year, he’s really turned it on of late. He’s an elite rebounder with block upside and energy, so he’s still a viable 4x option in this matchup despite the higher price point. Avery Anderson III (G, 6400) price doesn’t stand out as value, especially with the Cowboys at full strength. He’s a good scorer and in great form, but hard to see him smash with the balanced approach to scoring outside of their alpha Cunningham. Issac Likekele (G, 6100) played 31 minutes last game, so he appears fully healthy and at a significantly reduced price point to what we saw earlier in the year. He’s not a great scorer, but he can fill up the ancillary stats and makes for a decent cash option. Bryce Williams (G, 4000) followed up his spicy chicken incident by only playing 6 minutes the next game, so I’m not sure what to think here. If we knew Rondel Walker (G, 4300) would see 25+ minutes again I’d say he’s a reasonable punt option, but with the depth and pace down game environment, I’m probably looking elsewhere.
This is a powerhouse matchup between 8 and 9 seeds. Wisconsin has the #12 ranked defense and plays at a painfully slow pace. UNC on the other hand, is #45 in adjusted tempo but also has a top 15 defense. The do give up 3s however, so Wisconsin shooters get a small bump. The Tar Heels should have an advantage on the boards.
D’Mitrick Trice (G, 6700) has seen his price slip over the last 3 games after turning in subpar performances. I do like him getting up a ton of shots here though, just like the 17 he had against Iowa. Micah Potter (F, 6600) has been playing great lately but he will have his work cut out against the UNC front court. With UNC struggling to stop the 3, Brad Davison (G, 5700) does have some appeal. Aleem Ford (F, 4600) is priced up a bit but can stretch the defense out. I do like him in a paced up game.
Armando Bacot (F, 8200) was way more interesting at the beginning of March when his price was $5000. Three 40 DK performances later, he’s the highest priced player on the team. I don’t see that kind of output here however, I think the Wisconsin bigs can do enough to contain him, plus the pace won’t help matters. Day’Ron Sharpe (F, 6100) is hard to trust. He has all the talent but if he only plays 16 minutes, hard to pay that price. I actually like Caleb Love (G, 5800) in GPP games. Wisconsin isn’t as solid on the perimeter as years past, which could give him open looks and driving lanes. Garrison Brooks (F, 5600) has really underperformed of late. The matchup isn’t bad but likely safer options. Kerwin Walton (G, 4600) is a microwave and isn’t a bad punt play in GPP.
Cleveland St. got hot at the right time, but they’ll have a tall task ahead of them tonight. The Vikings allow a lot of 3-point field goal attempts and are horrendous on the glass, both areas Houston can exploit. Add in Houston’s lock down defense and Cleveland St.’s questionable shot selection and this one could get ugly.
For Cleveland State, Torrey Patton (G/F, 7200) has 26% shot share and is a solid rebounder. He’s had over 30 DK in 9 straight and is very fair. Houston will be the best D he’s seen all year, so he’s probably a tourney option only. Tre Gomillion (G, 5300) has a million 40 burgers lately. Well, he’s had 2 in his last 3 games, but that doesn’t really rhyme. Before those spike performances he’d never hit 30 DK, but I think he’s a decent 4x target that clearly has some upside. D’Moi Hodge (G/F, 5000) has the 2nd highest shot share on the team but is very scoring dependent. Craig Beaudion (G, 4500) is their PG and while he’s a low usage player, he’s shown a pretty high floor of late and will play all the minutes. The Vikings use a rotation at center, but it’s really the 4 guards that lead the way here. Again, Houston is the #1 D in effective FG%, so it’s a major step up in weight class for the Vikings so keep that in mind when looking at the favorable price points.
Quentin Grimes (G, 9100) played poorly in the first half against Cincy and still finished with 33.8 DK in limited minutes. Q-Dot is their clear usage leader offensively and nothing scary about the matchup. Our boy DeJon Jarreau (G, 8200) is getting more PT of late, which has unlocked his full DFS potential. He can absolutely fill up a stat sheet, but his price point is really the only issue. Justin Gorham (F, 7300) is priced up as well. He should feast on the glass, making him a legit double-double candidate but he’s rarely priced over $7k. Marcus Sasser (G, 6200) is very scoring dependent, as he does next to nothing in ancillary production. Fabian White’s (F, 5200) return provides more post presence for the Cougars, but his minutes will probably max out at 20 minutes which hurts his upside. Tramon Mark (G, 4500) could get more run, especially if this is a blowout and he’s done well in terms of points per minute in the past.
The Mean Green toppled Western Kentucky in the C-USA tournament to punch their dance ticket. They have a top 40 defense, and they’re one of the slowest paced teams in the country (seems to be a theme this year). They shot 37% from 3 on the year. Purdue has the #23 ranked offense and defense in the nation and won 5 straight before losing to the Buckeyes in OT in the B1G tournament.
PG Javion Hamlet (G, 6900) is whole show for the Green. His 29% usage, 29% shot share, and 30% assist rate is by far the best on the team. He’s also a 87% free throw shooter. He’ll draw Hunter’s d-sticks, but he’ll need to produce if they want to stay in it. Zachary Simmons (F, 4800) will have his hands full against Wiilliams and Edey. I do like the price though, has hit 4x very consistently. James Reese (G/F, 5600) has some defensive upside and has hit 5x in 3 of his last 4 games. Thomas Bell (F, 5400) is a sharpshooter. The Boilermakers do give up a ton of 3s, so I don’t hate this play. For $900 cheaper, you can get an even better shooter, Mardrez McBride (G, 4600). He doesn’t rebound as well but plays more minutes.
Trevion Williams (F, 8600) took 23 shots against Ohio State and scored 58 DK. I don’t expect that here, but it’s hard to know what to expect from him (15 and 19 DK two previous games). He’s a strong GPP play here with massive rebounding upside. Jaden Ivey (G, 7100) is close to his max price. The electric freshman has gotten more consistent over the last several games. He’s a bit risky at that price but should hit 4x. No real advantage for Sasha Stefanovic (G, 5600). His biggest games come against paced-up opponents which this isn’t. Zach Edey (F, 5000) has been solid in spurts lately with 32/34 DK against Indiana and Wisconsin. I could seem log some minutes in this one so not a bad play.
Rutgers and Clemson are both top 20 defenses in the nation and among the bottom of their respective conferences in offensive efficiency. All said, don’t expect a ton of scoring in this one. Rutgers should have some defensive stat upside and Clemson does give up 3s so you can play the Scarlet Knight shooters.
Ron Harper Jr (G/F, 7200) had a couple 4x games in the B1G tournament, but they were both against teams he’s generally matched up well against (Indiana & Illinois). Harper will likely draw Tyson which is a solid defender and has size. Harper hasn’t had much of a ceiling since this season. Myles Johnson (F, 6400) on the other hand, has flashed a big time ceiling at times this season. Foul trouble will always be his undoing. He’ll draw Simms so definitely risk, but I do like him in this game. Jacob Young (G, 6200) leads the team in usage and shot share (28%/27%), which is pretty attractive at that price point. The matchup is terrible, but he’s a bright lights kind of player, so I like him GPP. I’d like to see Geo Baker (G, 5800) get double digit shot attempts up in this one after a couple quiet games, love him at this price.
The dynamic Aamir Simms (F, 7500) is in decent form in his last 10 games, going 5x in 6 of those. Johnson will be a difficult matchup, but he’ll need to be in top form for the Tigers to come through, so I don’t mind him in GPP. Al-Amir Dawes (G, 6000) has had 2 nice scoring games lately with 34 DK games in his last 4. Rutgers is just average at defending the 3, so he has a chance to stay hot. Clyde Trapp (G, 5500) is probably better suited for cash games (or not at all). Hunter Tyson (F, 5100) had a nice game against Miami in the tournament, going 7x. He’s priced up slightly, but I don’t hate this matchup.
If you are sober when this one tips off, you might be doing March Madness wrong. All kidding aside, this 6/11 match-up should be a really competitive one. Vegas likes the Aztecs by 3, and the over/under is a playable 139.
Last year SDSU was on their way to a #1 seed before the pandemic shut the tournament down. This year they settle for a 6 seed with a 23-4 record. The Aztecs haven’t lost since January 16th and if the streak continues, they will need to get past the 2-3 zone of Cuse. The team shoots 38% from 3 so that should help. Matt Mitchell (F, 7100) and Jordan Schakel (7000) are the primary offensive threats. I prefer Schakel of the two given his 46% 3PT shooting on 166 attempts. Nathan Mensah (F, 5500) should be in line for a good game as the 2-3 can give up offensive rebounds and put backs. Terrell Gomez (G, 5100) can be considered as well since he is a 41% 3PT shooter. I prefer Gomez to Trey Pulliam (G, 5900). He is cheaper and a more natural scorer. Pulliam is probably a little less shot dependent though.
For Cuse, they need to be hitting from deep, which teams have not done a lot of against SDSU. Only 38% of opponent’s points came from behind the arc against the Aztecs this year, 11th lowest rate in the nation. Alan Griffin (F, 7800), Buddy Boeheim (G, 7200) and Joseph Girard (G, 5100) take the most triples, but Griffin is the best at finding alternate ways to put up DK points; Boeheim and Girard are more high risk GPP options. In the paint Quincy Guerrier (F, 7400) is a roller coaster, but capable. Marek Dolezaj (F, 6300) is active in all facets of the game, but down the pecking order in shot share. Thankfully Syracuse only plays these 5 guys, so no need to dive into the bench.
Morehead St. would prefer a slow-paced game, something that didn’t happen when they allowed 81 to UK and 77 to Ohio St. early in the season. They are pretty sound defensively but do allow a lot of open looks from 3 and they turn the ball over a lot offensively. WVU will want to push pace and like most Huggins teams, has steal upside that can lead to easy baskets in transition.
Johni Broome (F, 6900) probably helped his stock more than any mid-major in the country during conference tourneys. The 6’10 center looked like a high major player and will be a fascinating matchup against Culver. He has almost 30% shot share and is their best rebounder and shot blocker and the price is very fair. The freshman struggled against the elite teams earlier this year, but he’s obviously improved a lot since December. Devon Cooper (G, 5900) will play max minutes at SF and can do a bit of everything. He’s more of a 4x option in this one. If you are a risk taker, Skyelar Potter (G, 4900) is your guy. His game logs are littered with spike performances, but he could easily get you 2x as well. He’s a heck of a rebounder for a 6’3 kid, so we’ll see how that translates against a long WVU team. Ta’lon Cooper (G, 4800) hasn’t shown much upside throughout the year, so he’s kinda meh. James Baker, Jr. (F, 3900) has seen an increase in minutes of late if you need a hail mary.
For WVU, the pricing was pretty favorable for Derek Culver (F, 8000) and Miles McBride (G, 7900). Culver has a bit more volatility, but when he’s on his game he’s a walking double-double that should be motivated against the young Morehead St. center. McBride should capitalize on the turnover opportunities here and feels like a solid cash target at this price point. Senior Taz Sherman (G, 6300) is a flamethrower right now, hitting at least 28 DK in 5 of his last 6. He’s got the greenest of green lights from deep and even though he’s scoring dependent, he’s probably still a decent 4x target tonight. Emmitt Matthews (F, 5200) got priced up for some reason, so don’t love him as much. Jalen Bridges (F, 5000) will have random smash games, so he’s a risky tourney option. Sean McNeil’s (G, 4500) price dropped a bit, but we’ve seen 20+ DK performances throughout the year and is playing a ton of minutes, so he’s not a bad price saving option if you think he can get hot.
We end the night with a trendy upset pick as many have the 12th seeded Winthrop over ailing Villanova. The Eagles will want to push tempo while Nova will want to play slow and dominate this game with their length and athleticism. Vegas leans Wildcats by 6.5 and the o/u is just 143.
Winthrop brings a lot of good and a lot of bad when scouting this game from a DFS perspective. For the good, they play at the 11th fastest tempo, have a guy who routinely gets triple doubles and shoot a ton of threes. For the bad, they play 11 guys over 11 minutes per game and no one averages over 12.2 points per contest. Chandler Vaudrin (G/F, 8000) is the triple double guy and has 3 on the year. He only boasts a 17.6% shot share, so scoring can be a challenge, but of all the Eagles he is the only lock for 30 minutes on the court. No other Winthrop player is over 4800 because of the time share. DJ Burns (F, 4800) and Adonis Arms (G, 4500) have absurd shot rates when on the floor of over 30%. Charles Faden (G, 4800) is the team’s best 3-point shooter and Kelton Talford (F, 3600) is the team’s best inside presence after Burns. It’s all a gamble though.
For Nova, they are 0-2 without Collin Gillespie, and he is done for the year. Chris Arcidiacono (G, 4900) could be a trendy play as he has taken over the PG duties and has run the team pretty well. Be mindful though that he hasn’t made a field goal this year… like all year so not sure I am going to take that gamble. I’d much rather pay for Jermaine Samuels (F, 7000) who’s usage has gone way up in Gillespie’s absence. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 9000) carries a much higher price tag. He is fine, but probably more of a cash target for 9k. I think Justin Moore (G, 5800) is priced intriguingly. He is now a week removed from an ankle issue that slowed him in the Big East tournament. If 100% I’d expect at least 5x.