We’ve got a great slate for Bucketheads that hate the Big 12 and Pac 12, as they are nowhere to be found. In all seriousness, should be an awesome slate of hoops, headlined by Illinois at Michigan. We wish Ayo was 100% for this game, but still should be a fantastic matchup and has direct impacts on March Madness for both of these teams. In addition to that B1G heat, we’ve got some fun DFS matchups including Auburn and Alabama’s slate high 157 over/under. The ladder below provides all you need, so check out each rung from the lowest totals to the highest, build your best lineups, and win all of the money Bucketheads!!
#25 Wisconsin @ #23 Purdue
With a sub-130 over/under, let’s not get carried away here. Purdue does give up a ton of looks from behind the arc, so give Wisconsin shooters a slight bump. Wisconsin does have a few shooters, including D’Mitrik Trice (G, 7000), Brad Davidson (G, 4300), and to a lesser extent Aleem Ford (F, 4300) and Micah Potter (F, 7000). Trice is a high floor, low ceiling play while Potter has played his best ball of the season of late. His minutes are still a concern but should get plenty of open looks offensively. Davidson will be a popular value play, as he’s scored at least 20 DK in 4 of his last 5. Jonathan Davis (G, 4500) is getting a ton of minutes lately as well, so he’s a lower owned contrarian option. In addition to the low over/under, Wisconsin is playing 8 guys 15+ minutes so the depth hurts their ceiling as well.
The Badgers are a top 40 defense against 2-point FGs and rebound well, so they have the length to matchup with Trevion Williams (F, 8000) down low. Trev has elite usage rates, so he’s always in play but it’s not an easy matchup. Freshman Jaden Ivey (G, 6800) has been sensational of late, but he’s priced significantly up in an ugly game environment. Sasha Stefanovic (G, 5000) is healthy again, so he has 4x potential at home, where he averages over 5 more DK points than on the road. Eric Hunter, Jr. (G, 4300) is priced down $1k from last game, so he has some punt appeal as well in this low tempo/low possession game. Purdue also carries a bit of injury risk against elite nut-puncher Brad Davison, so keep that in mind in addition to the inherent risks of a low possession game.
Kentucky @ Mississippi
The Wildcats have won 3-of-4 as they look to get into good form going into the SEC tournament. Earning a win on the road tonight would go a long way to boosting that momentum. While the over/under here isn’t great, pricing is favorable on both sides. UK is only playing about 7 guys, and no one is over 6600. Isaiah Jackson (F, 6600) probably plays the fewest minutes of that bunch but is their highest priced option. I love Jackson’s game though and think he is a GPP option tonight. BJ Boston (G/F, 6000), Keion Brooks (F, 6000) and Devin Askew (G, 4400) also are live GPP targets as they have shown 6x upside this price. I think it will be harder to pay up for Davion Mintz (G, 6400), Olivier Sarr (F, 5800) and Jacob Toppin (F, 4900), but there are worse plays you could makes.
For Ole Miss, Devontae Shuler (G, 6700) is kind of match up proof with his usage and shot share (26%/30%). I really like him at this price, and at home. Luis Rodriguez (G/F, 5900), Romello White, and KJ Buffen (F, 4800) all have GPP appeal, but note that you cannot play multiple Rebels. Jarkel Joiner (G, 4600) is a cheaper scoring dependent option if you are looking for a little cost savings. Honestly, outside of Shuler, confidence is low with Mississippi plays.
Marquette @ DePaul
This is DePaul’s final regular season game of the year, so we’ll start with the home team. While 4-12 wasn’t the game or win total they were hoping for, one of those victories did come over Marquette in Milwaukee. Jalen Freeman-Liberty (G, 7600) is still in the concussion protocol so his status remains questionable tonight. In his absence last game, Charlie Moore (G, 7100) scored 22 points and had 33.5 DK. No one else is over 5k for the Blue Demons, so consider the following GPP darts at best. At the forward spots Pauly Paulicap (4900) and Darious Hall (4200) start and have rebounding upside. Ray Salnave (G, 4400) is playing close to 30 minutes per game, and Romeo Weems (F, 4100) is a bet on talent type play.
After getting a big win in Chapel Hill, Marquette stumbled at UConn over the weekend. Dawson Garcia (F, 6800) has gone 4x/6x in his last two and is in the best current form on the team. Jamal Cain (F, 6200) is dealing with a banged up face, and is questionable. If he can’t go Jamal Lewis (F, 3900) is enticing. DJ Carton (G, 5600) has been up and down all year, so GPP only. Theo John (F, 5000) is typically a safe cash option, and he should exploit this matchup creating upside. At the guard spots Greg Elliott (G, 4700) has been pretty good with increased minutes lately. Koby McEwen (4300) has been impacted by his increased PT, hurting his typically high ceiling.
Indiana @ Michigan State
Trayce Jackson-Davis (F, 8400) is coming off a rough outing against the Wolverines so his price is down $600. That’s good news for Bucketheads as he lit Sparty up for 51 DK 3 games ago. Race Thompson (F, 6400) is priced up but he had 6x against the Spartans, so he’s still playable. Armaan Franklin (G, 5200) is dealing with a foot and might not even play again this season, which is more shots for Aljami Durham (G/F, 5900). Jerome Hunter (F, 3800) started last game but hasn’t been spectacular thus far, still someone to take a chance on at basement price.
Aaron Henry (F, 8100) cooled off against Maryland, 4-16 shooting. He went 5x against the Hoosiers though and he should be playable again tonight. Josh Langford (G, 6300) has been playing much better of late. You take away the 42 DK game vs Illinois and the price tag a little high. I do like him in cash games however. Joey Hauser (F, 5500) is still perplexing. He had his worst game against Indiana so very hard to trust here. Gabe Brown (F, 5300) is priced up $1600 since last time these two faced off. I do like his shooting upside but GPP only.
Duke @ Georgia Tech
Matthew Hurt (F, 9200) is at max-price after the 50-burger against Louisville. Only 3x at that price last time but with Jalen Johnson out of sight, you can expect more. He’s still a risky GPP play. I prefer DJ Steward (G, 6500); poor shooting effort against UL but 5x last time vs Tech. Some rebound upside for Wendell Moore (F, 5900), not a great outing vs GT last time but he’s an option. Mark Williams (F, 5600) appears to be locking down the middle, 26 and 25 mpg over last 2, 7x/5x. Jordan Goldwire (G, 5100) is just a guy but 6x last time vs the Jackets so worth noting even though recent form isn’t great.
Moses Wright (F, 9000) is also a peak price after unloading 60 DK on Cuse. He had 47 DK against Duke last time so still a solid play. Jose Alvarado (G, 6600) had 44 DK against Duke on 10-15 shooting. He’s down $1600 since then, so not a bad one to re-run. Michael Devoe (G, 7400) is in great form. He had an awful game against the Devils last time but that seems like an outlier. Jordan Usher (G/F, 5800) had a huge 40 DK against Cuse but I don’t see a repeat here.
Xavier @ Georgetown
Five straight double-doubles have Zach Freemantle (F, 8900) as the 3rd highest priced player on this slate. His consistency makes him a little more of a safer play than Paul Scruggs (G, 8700) who checks in at $200 less. I think both are in play against one of the Big East’s poorer defenses. After those two, Colby Jones (G/F, 6100) has had a few good games, but his low shot share of 12.8% gives me pause. Instead I’d pivot to Dwon Odom (G, 4800) who has gone 6x/4x in his last two games playing close to 30 minutes.
Georgetown is still let by Jamorko Pickett (G/F, 7500) and Jahvon Blair (G, 6600) as they have been since the team fell apart in the middle of the 2019-2020 season. Love Blair at this price, while Pickett is a fade for me. Chudier Bile (F, 6500) is coming off a 44 DK outing in his last game, but Blair was out for that one bumping up his usage. He’s got some cash appeal but a GPP repeat is not likely. Qudus Wahab (F, 6100) is a DD threat, and excellent shot blocker. He’ll have his work cut out for him with Freemantle though. Dante Harris (F, 5900) is the last Hoya worth mentioning. He has been a solid cash play hovering around 4x over his last 4.
#4 Illinois @ #2 Michigan
The big news for Illinois is the status of Ayo Dosunmu (G, 8800). He did make the trip, and while he’s still “day to day”, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the starting lineup. The Wolverines are a top 5 defense nationally, but this is a discount price for Ayo. If he doesn’t go, Andre Curbelo (G, 6700) has been terrific in spite of a steep price increase. Adam Miller (G/F, 4200) would be an excellent bargain. Not a great matchup for Trent Frazier (G, 5400). Kofi Cockburn (F, 7700) is priced down quite a bit which makes him enticing, but the matchup is as bad as it gets. He hasn’t had more than 7 boards in 4 straight games and Michigan just held TJD to 22 DK. Da’Monte Williams (G, 4800) has been more assertive of late, 6x/5x in last 2.
Franz Wagner (G/F, 7800) seems like a good bet. Great form lately and has a size advantage over likely defender Williams; speed advantage over Giorgi. He should have some defensive upside as well. Everyone wants to see the Kofi vs Hunter Dickinson (F, 7400) matchup. I think Kofi matches up well here defensively, so I’m not super keen on Dickinson. Isaiah Livers (F, 7300) could be the difference maker in this one. Illinois giving up 38% from 3, he could have a big one. Eli Brooks (G, 5300) and Mike Smith (G, 5200) should be solid in cash games. Smith could have some GPP pop if he gets to the bucket.
Auburn @ #8 Alabama
Bruce Pearl called Sharife Cooper (G, 7900) doubtful yesterday for his match-up against the Tide. He also said that we shouldn’t expect Justin Powell (G, 5600) to return this season. Regarding Cooper, at this point it is better to get him back for the SEC tourney and attempt to make a run. If Cooper misses, Allen Flanigan (G, 7200) was awesome in Auburn’s win over Tennessee, scoring 38 DK. Against pacey Alabama, I think we can probably expect similar success. I also like JT Thor (F, 6300) and Jaylin Williams (F, 5700). Thor had 44 DK in the first meeting, while Williams has had a steady floor of late. This is a game where we want a lot of exposure. Wrapping up playable options for the Tigers, Devan Cambridge (G, 5500) took 17 shots vs Tennessee, yes please, and Jamal Johnson (G, 4900) is in better form lately.
I’ll be honest, I wonder if Bama peaked too soon? In their last three they were dismantled by Arkansas, and narrowly earned wins against struggling SEC teams Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. The team doesn’t have that swagger they were playing with in January. That being said, this game environment, at home, is a good place to get it back. To do that the wings of Jaden Shackelford (G, 6500) and John Petty Jr. (G, 5800) need to show that killer instinct together, and in the same game. Lately it has been one or the other, or Jahvon Quinerly (G, 6200) who has emerged as their only backcourt threat on a given night. Herb Jones (F, 6900) remains a do-it-all steady play. Got to love his high floor in this match-up. You also have to like that Jordan Bruner (F, 5200) had 20 and 7 in the first match-up with Auburn. Now he missed a month due to injury afterward, but is back in the rotation. Finally, Keon Ellis (G, 4300) has 6x upside if one or two of the core backcourt members struggle. And I repeat – they all have been struggling lately.
Prize Picks 2/17/21
Justin Champagnie
Pittsburgh
Should be able to score big and rebounding big in this one. In spite of not having one of his better games against them last time (17 and 8), he did add 5 steals which easily put him OVER 36.0, which I expect again.
– James
Allen Flanigan
Auburn
With Sharife Cooper doubtful Flanigan will again be the Tigers go-to option. This game will feature a ton of possession and opportunities for him to rack up fantasy production. Hence, Flanigan goes OVER 24.8… easily.
– Joe
Derek Culver
WVU
PrizePicks is offering single stat options for CBB, so let’s dive in here. Culver has never scored double digits in 4 career starts against Baylor and DK Sportsbook has his point prop at 14.5, so we are getting some value here. Give me UNDER 16 points scored.
– Byrd