We get our first taste of tournament action tonight, as two NIT match-ups take center stage. DraftKings has a nice tournament out for this one where a $15 buy in can bring you home $2,000. In my opinion that isn’t a bad way to start the week! You know your boys @CBB_DFS got these games and all the games through Saturday, so let the madness begin!
You’ll notice a familiar layout below as we are going back to the accordion style for the tournament. We did this for two reasons:
- The sheer volume of games these Friday and Saturday main slates would result in endless scrolling. The according style lets you open and close a game with ease so you can read what you want.
- We want to appropriately set up each game with an intro paragraph. What is the playing style? What does a team do well? Where can they be exploited? These are all discussed in an intro paragraph before we go into team detail.
You’ll also notice that all games are laid about in order of tip time. We have are color coding from red (slow paced) to green (fast paced) as well. That legend is as follows:
- Red – O/U is < 130
- Orange – O/U is 130 to 134.5
- Yellow – O/U is 135 to 139.5
- Light Green – O/U is 140 to 144.5
- Dark Green – O/U is >145
This is the formula for the remainder of the year! This slate may be small, but it is a nice way to ease us in to what is to come! Enjoy the read Bucketheads and lets get on a heater to start the weekend ahead!
Holy Toledo, it’s March Madness!! Well, sort of. We’ve got some NIT heat to start the week. Toledo loves the 3-ball and will get out in transition a bit. Defensively, they eliminate 3s, as teams are shooting the 14th lowest % from deep against them, but are vulnerable inside the arc. Richmond is even worse defensively inside, so expect some easy opportunities from both sides tonight.
The big questions here are the status of Grant Golden (F, 6700) and Blake Francis (G, 6000). Golden has struggled playing thru his finger injury while Francis has missed multiple games, so both would be risky options if they do play. Richmond already plays a super tight rotation, so keep your eyes peeled for injury news. We do know Jacob Gilyard (G, 7900) is going to play literally all the minutes, giving him a high floor. He is priced up a bit given his sub-20% shot share, so his ceiling is probably closer to 4x. Toledo depends the 3 well too, so bump down the Spiders shooters a bit. Tyler Burton (F, 6500) would see increased usage if Golden were to miss and his price is down. He’s volatile but has some spike performances that you like to see when making GPP lineups. Nathan Cayo (F, 6300) is priced up a bit after a couple 30 DK efforts, but for $200 more I think Burton has a higher shot share and rebounding rates making Cayo more of a contrarian option on a short slate. Andre Gustavson (G, 3900) would be a punt play if Francis misses time, while Matt Grace (F, 3500) would likely see more time at center if Golden were to miss.
For Toledo, everything revolves around Marreon Jackson (G, 9500). He has 28% shot share, elite assist rates, and even has a few triple doubles this season. He has legit 50 DK upside, so if you can afford him, fire away. Setric Millner, Jr. (F, 7700) is on a heater lately as well. He’s priced way up but does have 30+ DK in 3 straight. He’s seen significantly increased usage of late and Richmond is one of the worst teams in the country defending 2-point field goals. Freshman Ryan Rollins (G, 6200) has the 2nd highest shot share on the team and is a steady 4x option, while JT Shumate (F, 5700) is an efficient, yet low usage option offensively that has some block upside. Spencer Littleson (G, 5300) will play a ton of minutes and despite low usage, he’s averaging 13.5 ppg and could provide some cap relief on the short slate. Mattia Acunzo (F, 3800) would be the deepest of deep cuts on the short slate.
Excluding the cancellation last year, Saint Mary’s has played in the NIT or NCAA tournament every year since 2007. They, and Coach Randy Bennett, are no strangers to the post season, whereas WKU is making their first trip into a second season since 2018. This game is going to be a low scoring defensive minded affair. Vegas likes the Gaels by -1.5, but the total is just 125. Since we are dealing with just a two game slate, we are going to need some pieces from here so let’s take a look.
Starting with Western Kentucky, Charles Bassey (F, 10,000) has a gaudy price tag for a two team slate. That said he is a factor on offense (27% shot share) and an elite defensive player (5th DR% and 11th in BLK%) giving him a good shot to get value despite tempo. The only question is if you can put the right cheaper options around him. The next highest priced Hilltopper is Dayvion McKnight (G, 5600), but his 41 DK outing in the C-USA semis is still bloating his price. Taveion Hollingsworth (G, 5000) is a much better option and has the team’s 2nd highest usage rate and shot share. Josh Anderson (G/F, 4800) is in play as a rebounding wing who plays heavy minutes. With Carson Williams (F, 4600) likely out, Anderson should see more time at the 4. Jordan Rawls (G, 4500) and Luke Frampton (G, 3700) are the team’s designated shooters. Frampton, with a potential for increased minutes and his 41% 3PT% make him an intriguing dart toss.
WKU gives up 36% by opponents from 3, so give a bump to Saint Mary shooters. Unfortunately for the Gaels, they don’t have any. Tommy Kushe (G, 7200) is 28% from deep this year, but he really fills the ancillary stats and is a safe cash target. Logan Johnson (G, 6600) is 22% from deep, but has been over 20 DK in every game since mid January. He has shown high 30s DK upside on occasion too. Dan Fotu (F, 5100) is one of the team’s better shooters at 33% from deep. He is a GPP target with a volatile game log. More of a traditional big, Matthias Tass (F, 5900) has been around 4x in 4-straight, but doesn’t offer much ceiling and will be pre-occupied with Bassey. Kyle Bowen (G, 4200) starts plays 30 minutes, but…. you guessed it… 23% from deep.