Thursday Sixer

Last night was a good example of late breaking news and chaos that we’ll see over the next month or so. Always remember to put your highest priced, latest played games in your utility spots to provide maximum flexibility to edit your lineup. These late swaps generally lead to lower ownership in tourneys (example below). Guys that we didn’t mention may become very viable as well (see Yetna and Nkamhoua last night), so be diligent and flexible in your process. We’ll do our best to pass along information as we see it as well. As always, we are here for you Bucketheads.

As for tonight, we’ve got a somewhat ugly slate with only one game exceeding an over/under of 140. We’ll do our best to isolate strong options tonight and also try to build upon our 2-0-1 PrizePicks plays from last night. Good luck tonight Bucketheads!! Let’s go!!

**Noah Gurley, written up yesterday, was 1.12% owned even after we pivoted off of Fulkerson. He had 36.5 DK at 3600.

12/30/21

GameTimeLineO/U
BRN @ UMD6:00UMD -11.5135.5
MICH @ UCF6:00MICH -3.5137.5
ODU @ FIU6:00FIU -1127.5
UTEP @ UAB6:30UAB -12.5136.5
MRSHL @ LT8:00LT -7155
UTAH @ ORST8:00UTAH -4140

GUARDS WE LIKE

Taevion Kinsey, MRSHL (G, 8200) – He is on the floor more than anyone in the nation (97% of available minutes) and has 28% usage on a team that plays at the 2nd fastest tempo. We get a price break due to 2 sub-par games recently. I expect him in the 37-45 DK range that he was in during the other 5 of his last 7. 

Jordan Walker, UAB (G, 7700) – UAB is kinda good and Jordan Walker is one of the main reasons why. The PG dominates the ball and picks up ancillary production to go with his 16ppg. Nothing scary about this matchup at home so Walker fully in play tonight.

Darius Perry, UCF (G, 7600) – The former Louisville Cardinal isn’t a stranger to major competition. His logs are all over the place this season, but he’s capable of big time games, even against big time opponents (see Auburn, Oklahoma). He’s a gamble anyway but especially against Michigan’s top 25 defense, that is #1 in A/FGM. He’ll have to do it as a scorer and not a playmaker, so high risk, high reward GPP play.

Eric Ayala, UMD (G, 7500) – Not sure what Fatts Russel’s status is after going down with a knee injury last game. If Russel doesn’t play, then Ayala will become the primary handler and playmaker like he was last season. He’s priced a bit high but recent form and matchup are good, so he’s got a chance regardless.

Souley Boum, UTEP (G, 7300) – The Miners only have an implied total in the low 60s, so don’t dig too deep here. Boum leads the team with 30% usage and although he’s scoring dependent, his price point is very fair for a guy averaging 20 real points per game. He’s volatile, so more of a GPP option.

Keonte Kennedy, UTEP (G, 6600) – Kennedy has been a steady force of late, scoring over 30 DK points in 4 straight games. He leads the team in minutes and unlike Boum, he does a little bit of everything. UAB is solid defensively, but it’s a pace up game and Kennedy’s recent form make him a viable cash game target.

Hakim Hart, UMD (G, 6200) – Hart has really emerged as an extra scoring option the last 3 games. Unfortunately, his price has more than caught up with his production. I’m not as crazy about him now, but he’s playable in GPP due to the favorable matchup. 

Darin Green, Jr, UCF (G, 6100) – He leads the team in shot share at 30% so not scared to get a shot up. He hasn’t shown much of a ceiling so not a ton of GPP appeal. He is fairly shot dependent as well but has consistently hit around 4x at this price.

Jarod Lucas, ORST (G, 5700) – Horrible start to the year for Lucas, but he’s found his range of late with 5x efforts in 3 of his last 4. Utah is one of the best teams in the nation at limiting 3s, which hurts this 43% 3-point shooters ceiling, but he plays the most minutes of any of the Beavers and his slightly cheaper than Dashawn Davis, who is the other viable Beaver guard.

Eli Brooks, MICH (G, 5500) – UCF is only allowing teams to shoot 28% from 3 against them, however, they do give up a ton of attempts (46% 3PA/FGA, #345). Brooks and the freshman, Houstan are the most prolific shooters for Michigan. I favor Brooks in this one for a bit cheaper. His experience and poise will be needed in a hostile road environment. 

Cobe Williams, LT (G, 4800) – Williams is way underpriced given the tempo of this one and the fact that he will play 30+ minutes. I like Archibald and Willis, but the value here is too much for me to pass up as he can easily be stacked with Lofton. Williams will stuff a stat line giving him GPP appeal tonight. 

Dan Friday, BRN (G, 4300) – What can Brown do for you? (Spoiler alert) Not much. The Terrapins do give up the 3, so you can target a shooter like Lily, but he’s out of my price band, so I prefer Friday (even on Thursday). The Bears play a deep bench (#63 bench minutes) unfortunately, but Friday has 31% usage and 30% shot share, and he’s a plus defender. Rare that you see those numbers at such a low price point, so try him in GPP.

Both Gach, UTAH (G, 4100) – Full blown turd from Gach last time out, but that game was a turd in general so I’m willing to overlook it. Gach was sitting at 7x over the previous 5 games before the stinker and his price point remains low, so he should be highly owned tonight against the 2-10 Beavers.

Eric Lovett, FIU (G/F, 3800) – Minutes are a bit up and down for Lovett, but when on the floor he has a 29% shot share and 24% usage. Full scoring dependent, but has had 30 DK in a game earlier this month. Cheap GPP dart throw.

Jorell Saterfield, UTEP (G/F, 3800) – A couple cheap options from different games here.  Saterfield is playing more minutes of late and averaging over 4x over the last 4 games. Lazar Stefanovic from Utah would fall under a similar description for $3300 as a low usage starter for the Utes. Both are cheap 4x options if you need a price saver.

FORWARDS WE LIKE

Hunter Dickinson, MICH (F, 8500) – Dickinson’s last 4 games have been at the level most were expecting coming into the year, with four straight double-doubles. The competition ramps back up as Michigan travels to Central Florida. His price is close to peak, but it’s clear the offense is running through him again. I like him as a strong cash play tonight.

Obinna Anochili-Killen, MRSHL (F, 8400) – I prefer Lofton (below), but no reason you can’t play both here. OAK didn’t start last game due to an illness, but when the team fell behind he came in and put up 25 DK in the second half. Assuming he is at full strength the ppm machine should be a fine play tonight. 

Kenneth Lofton, LT (F, 8300) – Expect high ownership as Lofton will going against Marshall’s 2nd fastest tempo in the nation. The La Tech big is the focal point of their counter attack with the 11th highest usage in the nation at 33.6%. He averages a double double on the season, no reason he doesn’t get another here. 

Warith Alatishe, ORST (F, 7800) – The price is stupid high and his production is all over the map, but Utah allows the 12th highest point distribution to 2-point field goals in the nation and Alatishe averaged a double-double against the Utes last season. The price point and volatility make him a tourney option only.

Donta Scott, UMD (F, 7200) – Scott is in solid form and getting up plenty of shots. He should have some rebounding and block upside against Brown making him viable for GPP. You can pivot down to Wahab as well for slightly less cost and lower ownership.

Branden Carlson, UTAH (F, 7100) – Carlson will return tonight from a COVID absence and is priced to play given his 30+ fantasy point upside. He leads the team in shot share, is their best rebounder, and has top 50 block rates on the year.

Kalu Ezikpe, ODU (F, 6300) – Kalu is a steady big who won’t be impacted by the slow tempo in this one. He’s shown double double upside throughout his career and should be a safe cash option tonight. Austin Trice (F, 6700) is the ball-hoggy GPP option.

Clevon Brown, FIU (F, 5800) – The former Vanderbilt star… err.. player, is the team’s best rebounder and is two games removed from a 49.8 DK outing against EMU. With this game being slow and physical, I would lean toward playing bigs and Brown is viable in cash.

Prize Picks

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Kenneth Lofton Jr.

OVER 34.9 fantasy points

This number seems low for a great player being paced up. Lofton averages a double double on the season and he is normally good for an assist or two to go with a block and a steal. That anicallry production might not even be needed tonight. Lofton goes OVER 34.9.

– Joe (20-16-4)

Both Gach

OVER 19.3 fantasy points

Gach struggled last game, but has been living in the mid-20 range in fantasy points over the previous 5 games. Oregon St. stinks, so give me the OVER 19.3 fantasy points for Gach tonight.

– Byrd (24-15-1)

BUCKETHEAD BONUS (21-14-2)

Darius Perry

UNDER 5 Assists

Michigan is the #1 team in the country at limiting assists, 34.1% A/FGM. They have only allowed 5 or more assists from a single player twice this season, Kerr Kriisa (7) and Jordan McCabe (5). You’d have to go back to the UNC game since an entire team had more than 6. Perry is an outstanding veteran playmaker, but I think he’ll be more of a scorer tonight.