[sips beer] Ahhh…it’s not college basketball without the Conference of Champions™. Welcome to Thursday night heat Bucketheads! We’ve got some piping hot Pac-12 action on tap…some ‘Zags…and some B1G rags. The DK main event is a $12 entry, $2k to first place, which par for the course. That said, not a lot of no-brainer picks tonight, so it could be anybody’s to win…why not you! Worst case scenario, we order up some pizzas, crack open a few barley pops, and lean into some of the greatest late night basketball action on the planet. Without further ado, let’s dive in!
1/13/22
| Game | Time | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| OSU @ WISC | 6:00 | WISC -2.5 | 139 |
| BUTLE @ GU | 6:00 | GU -1.5 | 137.5 |
| OKST @ TTU | 6:00 | TTU -9 | 129.5 |
| IU @ IOWA | 8:00 | IOWA -3 | 150 |
| ORE @ UCLA | 8:30 | UCLA -10.5 | 142 |
| BYU @ GONZ | 10:00 | GONZ -13.5 | 153 |
| COL @ ARIZ | 10:00 | ARIZ -15 | 150.5 |
| ORST @ USC | 10:00 | USC -15.5 | 141 |
GUARDS WE LIKE
Johnny Davis, WISC (G, 9400) – Held somewhat in check against Maryland last game. Here’s the deal, sometimes we at CBBDFS pour over data, game footage, local news articles, other times we keep it simple. This is the latter. He can explode any given night, so always live in GPP.
Bennedict Mathurin, ARIZ (G, 8100) – I’m not sure Colorado has anyone who can guard Agent 0 tonight. Arizona should score in the mid-80s and Mathurin has a 40 burger or higher in 5 of his last 7 games. His price is more than fair, so he’s a strong option in all formats tonight.
Will Richardson, ORE (G, 7100) – Our long-time Bucketheads won’t be surprised to see Richardson listed, as Byrd has several posters of him in his basement. Richardson plays the most minutes of the Duck guards, has been the most efficient, and has enough shot share to be successful. He has at least 30 DK in 5 of 7 and he’ll need to be at his best if the Ducks want to pull off an upside on the road.
Andrew Nembhard, GONZ (G, 6800) – Against top flight teams Nembhard has had DK games of 39 (TTU), 38 (DUKE), and 45 (UCLA). BYU is one of the few challenges the Bulldogs have left on their schedule, so expect Nembhard to be heavily involved and highly productive tonight.
Tyger Campbell, UCLA (G, 6300) – Campbell continues to be a steady fantasy producer with at least 30 DK in 3 straight. Nothing scary about the Ducks defense this season and he’s priced near his season low price point. Tyger is a high floor play tonight in a game UCLA is expected to approach 80 points.
Aaron Thompson, BUTLE (G, 6200) – Only Bulldog you can count on for 30+ minutes. Gets a pace up match-up and is coming off a 20 point game versus Xavier. Should be one of the safer cash options for Butler tonight.
Dalen Terry, ARIZ (G, 5200) – Kerr Kriisa is more important to this AZ team than Terry, but he’s $1200 less and he’s carved out a nice little role on this team. He’s coming off his best performance of the season and price is down a bit. I don’t expect him to put up another 30 DK, but I think he’ll be a solid 4x option tonight.
Avery Anderson, OKST (G, 5100) – Has shown 8x upside as recently as early December and 4x/5x in last two. Texas Tech remains elite defensively (4th per KenPom) so GPP only option. All that said, Anderson did average 16.5 ppg against the Red Raiders last season.
Chuck Harris, BUTLE (G, 5000) – This is a GPP play as minutes are all over the place, but the game will have a few extra possessions given G-town’s 25th rated tempo. Harris has a 29% shot share and played 30 minutes against similarly paced DePaul back on 12/29.
Adonis Arms, TTU (G, 4900) – A complete stud in the win over Baylor, Arms is playable in all formats tonight. He has 7x/5x/5x in 3 of 4 and his ability to contribute multiple ways keeps his floor high. Only concerns is the proverbial letdown game for the team as a whole.
Kaiden Rice, GU (G/F, 4400) – We constantly write up Rice because you just don’t see many players that are guaranteed to jack up 7 threes in a game on a slate. Rice is a boom or bust option playing at home where he has had DK outings of 46, 32, and 33 in the past.
Nolan Hickman, GONZ (G, 3600) – The freshman reserve is a nice price saver tonight. 5x in 4-straight and playing about 22 minutes per game over that span. Hasn’t shown much of a ceiling, but won’t kill your build and allows you to spend elsewhere.
Parker Stewart, IU (G, 3100) – When it comes to 3pt shooting, Parker Stewart can’t lose. When it comes to playing consistent minutes, he’s a complete nightmare. Matchup is good against Iowa, they could use his outside shooting. Definitely a GPP gamble, but very real possibility he gets 30 minutes. You can also look at Johnson or Phinisee if you want to double down on the IU back court.
FORWARDS WE LIKE
Keegan Murray, IOWA (F, 9500) – Murray is mainly here for posterity. We’re not going to NOT write up the guy with 3 50DK games in his last five, a top 10 KenPom player, and national player of the year candidate. However, when Iowa has faced top 25 defensive teams, he’s struggled to hit 4x (see Iowa St, Illinois). Indiana has the #11 ranked D right now, so play Murray with some caution. He is at home though where he’s 11 DK better.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, IU (F, 9300) – Juicy matchup against the Hawkeyes. TJD is worth a look no matter the opponent, but he has an opportunity to do some damage against Iowa’s porous defense in a high-possession game. Defensive upside will be limited, but I still like him in all formats. You can pivot to Race Thompson for a similar matchup, but I’d only look at him in cash.
EJ Liddell, OSU (F, 9200) – 50 banger against the Badgers a month ago and 50 in his last game, so no real reason to fade him. Wisconsin tends to give up buckets inside the arc and don’t crash the offensive boards, so all that adds up to a matchup advantage for Ohio St bigs. Young and Key also had nice outings against the Badgers if you don’t want to choke down the enormous price tag.
Isaiah Mobley, USC (F, 8900) – Oregon St. is 275th in 2-point field goal defense and a below average rebounding team, so matchup looks solid for Mobley at home. His price is very fair given his performance this year, so I’m good paying up for Mobley if you’ve got the salary. The rest of the Trojans (Peterson, Ellis, Goodwin) are GPP options only. Gun to my head I’d lean Goodwin for the price savings, but please don’t put a gun to my head. I’ve got kids to feed.
Christian Koloko, ARIZ (F, 7500) – Koloko is the definition of a boom or bust GPP play, but he’s got legit 40 DK upside, along with a floor in the mid-teens. He’s still $900 less than Tubelis as well, so he’s the Arizona forward I would favor if you are looking for a high risk, high reward option tonight.
Jabari Walker, COL (F, 7000) – The good news is Colorado gets a pace up game. The bad news is AZ is really good, especially inside with Koloko defending the rim. There should be enough possessions in this one for Walker to continue to dominate the glass, but we’d like to see more offensive production from the Buffs best player. He’s a low owned GPP option in a pace up game and probably the only Buff I’m considering tonight, unless you want to get super weird and plug in guard Julian Hammond III at min price, who is coming off Pac-12 Freshmen of the Week honors last week.
Tyler Wahl, WISC (F, 6500) – Wahl has always been a bit of a mystery. Had one of his worst games of the season vs the Buckeyes earlier this season. That said, he’s gone back to back 5x in heavy minutes last two games. He’s obviously high risk/high reward in this matchup so only play him if you’re a Kenny Rogers gambler.
Fousseyni Traore, BYU (F, 6000) – Since entering the starting lineup 4 games ago he has gone 7x/5.5x/4x this price in 3-of-4. The Freshman is a ferocious rebounder and also has two double-doubles in that span. Only drawback is that minutes are still capped in the mid-20s.
N’Faly Dante, ORE (F, 5700) – Dante’s minutes restriction appears to be loosening, as he’s seen over 25 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s a point per minute type fantasy producer, so if he can continue to see an uptick in minutes, he has a chance. You can also look at Eric Williams, Jr. for $1300 less. Williams appears fully healthy again as he finished with a double-double last game. He was a steady 20-30 DK performer before he went down, so nice cheap option if you need one.
Bryson Williams, TTU (F, 5700) – The ball hoggy big has a 29% shot share and has seen increased minutes lately. We aren’t in love with this game from a o/u standpoint, but someone will need to put the ball in the basket and Williams isn’t afraid to get shots up.
Anton Watson, GONZ (F, 5200) – Between 4-7x in his last 6, but all have been Zag blowouts. Sub 20 DK vs. Duke, UCLA, Texas and Texas Tech. Hard to argue current form, but use caution. Probably better suited for GPPs in my humble opinion.
Roman Silva, ORST (F, 4000) – USC is 4th in effective FG% defense and a solid rebounding team, but the 7’1 big man is seeing more minutes of late, going over 6x this price point in back-to-back games. It’s not an ideal matchup obviously, but his price point is cheap enough to at least put him in the consideration set.
Malcolm Wilson, GU (F, 3900) – Georgetown’s starting center has 20+ minutes in his last three. Butler loves getting their shots blocked (338th nationally) so in theory there is upside in Wilson who did go for 8x (30.5 DK) back on 12/15.
Cody Riley, UCLA (F, 3400) – Riley is the free square tonight. He’s back from injury and has played over 20 minutes in both games since returning, including 25 DK last game out. Although Dante was billed as a great shot blocker, Oregon is giving up 53.4% inside the arc this season, 301st in the nation. Even if he only scores 15 DK points, that’s plenty of value for the price tag.
Prize Picks
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Avery Anderson
OVER 22.1 fantasy points
Anderson had 16 and 17 points in two meetings with the Red Raiders last year. He also is an absolute thief boasting the 28th highest steal% in the nation (2.1spg). Tech can be sloppy with the the rock (259th in TO%), so I like Anderson to get OVER the 22.1 tonight.
– Joe (23-21-6)
Race Thompson
OVER 6.5 rebounds
I’m on a PrizePicks cooler of late, but in a game with a ton of possesions, I think Thompson will be at or above his season average of 7.7 boards per game. Give me the OVER 6.5 boards for Thompson tonight.
– Byrd (28-21-1)
BUCKETHEAD BONUS (26-19-2)
Isaiah Mobley
OVER 35.1 fantasy points
As mentioned, Oregon St has one of the worst defenses in the Pac-12, particularly in the interior, where they give up nearly 56% from 2 against conference opponents. They’re also ranked in the high 200s in rebounding, so I expect another double-double for Mobley and an easy cover.