We are back, Bucketheads! Hope everyone had a nice weekend and had a chance to recharge those batteries. I know Byrd and I did, so expect the heat to come with tonight’s content. DK is giving us a massive 12 gamer this Tuesday with tips going off at 6:00 (6) and 8:00 (5). We also have a stray 7:30 time, but that game is KSU and Texas, which is the day’s lowest over/under. The high total belongs to UNC and Miami and the line there is just -2.5 so expect a lot of nice DFS friendly options to come out of that one!
That’s enough of an intro I think! Let’s get to the fire! Good luck tonight, Bucketheads!
1/18/22
| Game | Time | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIZZ @ MISS | 6:00 | MISS -9.5 | 133.5 |
| SCAR @ ARK | 6:00 | ARK -10 | 146.5 |
| UMD @ MICH | 6:00 | MICH -6.5 | 136.5 |
| KU @ OU | 6:00 | KU -3.5 | 145 |
| UNC @ MIA | 6:00 | UNC -2.5 | 159 |
| BUTLE @ UCONN | 6:00 | UCONN -13 | 126.5 |
| KSU @ UT | 7:30 | UT -11 | 123.5 |
| TENN @ VAND | 8:00 | TENN -6.5 | 134.5 |
| WISC @ NW | 8:00 | WISC -2 | 138 |
| ISU @ TTU | 8:00 | TTU -7.5 | 126 |
| DUKE @ FSU | 8:00 | DUKE -5 | 144.5 |
| CLEM @ SYR | 8:00 | SYR -3 | 149.5 |
GUARDS WE LIKE
Johnny Davis, WISC (G, 9300) – No price relief for Davis after a couple subpar games, but this is a juicy matchup against the Wildcats. Northwestern fresh off the Sparty upset, is one of the worst fouling teams in the country (#318) and Davis averaging 6.1 fouls/40, so he can get to the line often. Throw in his elite usage and shot share, he’s due for a big one.
JD Notae, ARK (G, 8200) – I already miss the days when Notae was a lock play for $2000 less, but in this pacey match-up I am okay with paying up for Notae. Usage, shot rate, and fouls drawn are all top 5 in SEC play, while his assist rate, steal rate and 3PT% are all top 25.
Christian Braun, KU (G, 8000) – I usually just look at whoever is cheaper between Agbaji and Braun and that’s my lean. Both KU guards have high floors, but Braun has shown a higher ceiling due to his ability to fill up a stat sheet. OU’s been in a couple rock fights of late, so that scares me a little, but Braun has been as consistent as anyone in the country this season.
Kam McGusty, MIA (G, 7600) – Moore is price king for the Hurricanes (understandably), as he’s been on a tear lately. I think any of the three guards for Miami are in play, but I’m probably looking at McGusty in tournaments. He’s an elite rebounding guard and should have big steal upside against a sometimes sloppy Tar Heels backcourt.
Chase Audige, NW (G, 7500) – Nearly priced out of consideration, but he’s been consistent so far this year and 30% shot share when he’s in the game, so you have to wonder if we haven’t seen his best yet. Tough matchup against a solid perimeter D, but I think you can play him in cash.
Kennedy Chandler, TENN (G, 7200) – Splits favor Chandler in road games, and nothing scary about this Vanderbilt match-up. The fab frosh leads Tennessee is usage, shot, and assist rates and also creates a lot of steals. Good play in both formats.
Izaiah Brockington, ISU (G, 7100) – Brockington has been unbelievable for the Cyclones this season, leading the team in minutes, shot share, and defensive rebounding. We also got a nice price drop after sitting in the $8k range, so he’s playable again. Obviously, a horrible matchup against an elite Tech defense, but his usage and price point keep him in the consideration set.
RJ Davis, UNC (G, 6800) – At 600 cheaper than Love and better recent form (disregarding the Virginia game for both players), Davis feels like the safe bet in a terrific matchup against Miami. Should be able to make plays and get double digit shot attempts. Love’s advanced metrics are still better across the board on the season, so he might actually be a better GPP play as his ownership may be behind Davis on this slate.
Nigel Pack, KSU (G, 6300) – Priced at a season low, Pack had 33 DK v. Texas back on Jan. 4th. That was without Nowell, but he’s still getting up double digit shot attempts. Horrible over/under here, but Pack could overcome that if he can get hot from deep. I can’t pay $1500 more for Nowell in a sub-130 game environment, but I think some people will play him in hopes of his usage and steal rates continuing. You could also take a punt on Mike McGuirl at $3600 and hope he sees 20+ minutes as he’s a week or so removed from returning from COVID.
Tyrese Hunter, ISU (G, 6200) – Over/under in the mid-120s is a massive concern, so I understand if you just X this game out completely. Hunter appears to have broken the freshman funk, hitting over 28 DK in 3 straight games now. He’s a stud and his price is still completely fair, so the only thing holding him back is the game environment.
Jordan Wright, VAND (G/F, 6200) – Had a 50 burger last game, breaking out of a mini funk. Tennessee’s defense isn’t Georgia’s defense unfortunately, but at 6200 you are getting Vanderbilt’s 1A, when all the focus will be on Pippen Jr.
Devante’ Jones, MICH (G, 6000) – Two 5x games in last three, seems like Jones is starting to figure it out a little. Far from a certainty, but I do like that he’s at home and priced appropriately finally. Matchup isn’t great but winnable. Could be a low-owned GPP option.
Andrew Jones, UT (G, 5800) – Still cheap despite back-to-back games over 30 DK points. Jones is finding his rhythm and more importantly, seeing close to 30 minutes per game. As long as he’s getting the minutes, he should be a solid cash option with some upside at this price point.
Al-Amir Dawes, CLEM (G, 5800) – I don’t think I’ve gotten him right all season. He’s the best three-point shooter on the team. I loved him vs ND, and he went 2-10 from 3. At least he got up 10 shots I guess, so I’m going to wheel him back out against a traditionally soft 3-pt defense in Syracuse’s 2-3 zone.
Matthew Murrell, MISS (G, 5400) – With Jarkel Joiner sidelined until mid-February officially we can expect more max minutes from Murrell. In his last 4 the sophomore has gone 5x/4x/8x/4x. Like him in both formats tonight.
RayQuan Evans, FSU (G, 4500) – Matthew Cleveland is getting more attention from the DFS community of late, but for $1k cheaper the senior Evans has provided some recent value. He’s had double digit scoring in back-to-back with some steal upside. There is nothing scary about Duke’s defense so he’s a nice cheap option for exposure to a solid over/under, especially if Osborne is out as expected.
Au’Diese Toney, ARK (G, 4200) – Seems to have taken the place of Notae (8200) as the underpriced Razorback guard. Toney’s game logs are a bit of a roller coaster, but this is a player who went 6x this price in 5 of 6 games earlier in the season. 5x last time out and 7x back on January 4th.
Tye Fagan, MISS (G, 3900) – He and Luis Rodriguez (G/F, 4200) basically make up the Rebs 5th starter and 6th man slot. Both are wildly inconsistent, but capable of returning value due to their cheap price point. I lean Fagan as his minutes are more secure. Has shown close to 30 DK upside 3-4 times this year.
Chris Lykes, ARK (G, 3400) – The price is cheap for a player averaging 11 points per game, but I Lykes this match-up against South Carolina. These two teams are both fast paced which plays to the undersized guards style. SC is careless with the basketball too, and that adds steal upside.
FORWARDS WE LIKE
Armando Bacot, UNC (F, 9000) – I expect high ownership for Bacot against a soft Miami interior defense. These are the two fastest teams in the conference, so look for a high possession game. Bacot should be in store for a big rebounding and defensive day. Recent form is top notch and price is lowest in a month. Can’t ask for more.
Pete Nance, NW (F, 8600) – Nance’s status is still uncertain as of this writing, so keep an eye on him. Wisconsin is giving up 60% of opponents’ points from 2 in B1G play so he’s a good option if he can go. If not, then plug in Ryan Young once again, 27% usage on the year with solid rebounding numbers as well.
PJ Hall, CLEM (F, 7900) – I don’t have a ton of confidence in Hall right now, but this is a good matchup for him. Would’ve been nicer if his price returned to normal instead of being close to peak. Clemson is in a bad way after dropping games to ND and BC, so they need a win and Hall needs to be their best player. If you want to play the best offensive rebounder on the team however, then go with Naz Bohannon at 3600, coming off 7x.
Mark Williams, DUKE (F, 7700) – With the other elite Duke options priced to the moon, Williams is at least closer to a playable price point. I’d still lean Griffin, but you can’t ignore Williams massive output of late. He’s an elite shot blocker and with FSUs best rebounder likely out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Williams inside.
Jesse Edwards, SYR (F, 7600) – Edwards isn’t a great rebounding big man out of the zone, but he should get plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, especially from the line as Clemson is the worst fouling team in the ACC. Edwards is an elite shot-blocker as well and could amass multiple blocks in this one.
Timmy Allen, UT (F, 7200) – Foul trouble plagued him last game, but Timmy dropped a 40 burger in Manhattan earlier this month. Texas is a bit of a mess, but Allen has been a solid producer all season and KSU can be beaten inside. If you wanted to get really weird, you could hope for more minutes from Tre Mitchell at $3300 as well. 2022 has been unkind to him, but he was a factor in Nov. and Dec.
David McCormack, KU (F, 7100) – I get a little anxious even writing his name, as it’s been a complete roller coaster season for Big Dave. He has GPP winning upside when he’s on and suicide watch lows, but he started last game and played his best game of the season. He’s maddening to watch, but OU isn’t special defensively down low and he has the #1 offensive rebounding rates in the nation. You can also look to Jalen Wilson for $700 less as another high risk, high reward tourney option from the Jayhawks.
Jaylin Williams, ARK (F, 7000) – We prefer Williams at 5k, but DK pricing models finally caught up with us. Still, given the pace of this game the Arkansas versatile forward should be good for another 5x and possibly his 4th straight double-double.
Cole Swider, SYR (F, 6600) – Clemson has been vulnerable from the 3 so far in conference play. The Boeheims and Girard are all more than capable of going off in this one, but I might prefer Swider in tournaments as he’s cheaper than the other three and will play just as much (that means all game). Right at 5x in 4 of his last 6 games.
Tanner Groves, OU (F, 6600) – After peaking at $9k, Groves is priced down to a reasonable amount. Now, he never should have been a $9k player, but he still leads OU is shot share and rebounding % and should feel confident against a Jayhawk team he scored 35 on in the first round of the NCAA tourney last season. He’s struggled of late so only a GPP option, but the Sooners are in must win mode at home and Groves has shown 30+ DK upside.
Adama Sanogo, UCONN (F, 6500) – So his price went up $900 after his 63.5 DK outing. Good news is he is still about $2000 underpriced so even though the game environment is awful no reasons not to take advantage of Sanogo until his pricing is corrected. Expect high ownership.
Bryson Williams, TTU (F, 6400) – Williams is becoming a thing for DFS purposes, scoring over 30 DK points twice in his last 4 games. With Shannon back and McCullar healthy, it might be a different guy every night for the Red Raiders, but Williams has shown upside and Iowa St. is much more vulnerable inside the arc.
Moussa Diabate, MICH (F, 5900) – Not sure what Dickinson’s status or minute load will end up being, but worth noting, Hunter had two of his worst games vs Maryland last season. The Terrapins have been killed by forwards this year though, and the talented Diabate could be next in line if he can get a full load of minutes.
Quentin Millora-Brown, VAND (F, 5700) – 5x in 4 of 5 for QMB. Has shown a DK ceiling of near 40 DK earlier in the year as well. Will block shots (has at least 3 in 3 straight games) and be effective on the offense end. Top 12 rebounding percentages in SEC play.
AJ Griffin, DUKE (F, 5200) – The 5-star forward is finally getting his shot, starting in back-to-back games, and getting at least 27 minutes of action over his last 2. He’s going to have some ups and downs, but he’s priced to provide GPP winning upside when he’s on and FSU’s defense isn’t as formidable as it’s been in past years. With all the other expensive Duke options, I think he’ll be a popular way to cheap exposure to this game.
John Fulkerson, TENN (F, 4600) – Horrible outing last time against Kentucky, but most reliable Vol big in terms of minutes. Has a history of putting up big games when he is involved offensively. Hasn’t been involved much of late. GPP only.
Trevon Brazile, MIZZ (F, 4600) – Since becoming a starter he has averaged just over 22 minutes per game, but the freshman is an excellent shot blocker and defensive rebounder. If he gets a few shots to drop from close could be an intriguing low owned GPP option.
Dawson Garcia, UNC (F, 4400) – Only 17 DK in 20 minutes in his return from concussion vs GT. He’s been up and down all season, but talent still there. Manek is no doubt the safer option against the Hurricanes, but Garcia, with his slate-smashing potential and deep-discounted price, is the type of play that can win a tournament.
Julian Reese, UMD (F, 3800) – Got the start against Rutgers over Wahab and turned in a 5x performance in 25 minutes. Tough to say if Coach Manning will repeat that lineup decision but Reese didn’t do anything to hurt himself. Michigan has struggled defending the paint, especially if Dickinson is not back to full strength. Something to keep an eye on closer to game-time.
Tyler Polley, UCONN (F, 3300) – The UConn sharp shooter averages about 17 DK at home versus just 3x on the road. Threes will need to be dropping, but there are worse punt options though for your GPP builds.
Keyshawn Bryant, SCAR (F, 3200) – 11 Gamecocks played more that 11 minutes last time out for Frank Martin. This has been his gimmick this year as the team is 3rdnationally in bench minutes. This makes recommendations impossible, but Bryant is as talented as anyone on the floor in this one.
Prize Picks
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Matthew Murrell
OVER 19.2 fantasy points
With Jarkel Joiner officially sidelined until mid February Murrell’s run of opportunity should continue. Nothing to fear in this match-up with SEC bottom feeder Mizzou. Murrell goes over 19.2 total fantasy points.
– Joe (23-23-6)
Tanner Groves
OVER 22.4 fantasy points
Must win game for OU at home and Groves dropped 35 real points on KU last time he faced them. I think he scores in the high 20 fantasy points tonight, so give me the OVER 22.4 fantasy points for Groves.
– Byrd (28-23-1)
BUCKETHEAD BONUS (26-21-2)
Al-Amir Dawes
OVER 2 3-pt made
We’re doubling down on this, at the risk of feeling like we’re making a sucker bet. Dawes is shooting 40% on the season from 3 with 41 makes. He has only made less that 2 twice this season. Add in the fact that they’re playing Syracuse who is 4th in the nation at percentage of opponents’ points coming from 3 (43%), you have to feel good. Dawes has gone 2-5, 2-3, and 3-5 career vs Cuse, LFG!