Happy Monday, Bucketheads. Just a reminder that Joe will be in Mexico this week so content will be limited. Today we are going to bring you some Monday heat, but the Tuesday and Wednesday mega-slates won’t have write-ups this week. We’ll see how big the slates are on Thursday and Friday, but odds are we’ll be off until next Monday.
Tonight’s slate has a couple juicy over/unders to open the 6-gamer and a couple late tips to keep the action going into the evening. We’ve got all the right plays written below so dive in and find that winning combination. #LFG
2/28/22
| Game | Time | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| SYR @ UNC | 6:00 | UNC -7.5 | 156.5 |
| NW @ IOWA | 7:00 | IOWA -10.5 | 152.5 |
| BAY @ UT | 8:00 | BAY -1 | 135.5 |
| KSU @ TTU | 8:00 | TTU -12.5 | 133.5 |
| UCLA @ UW | 10:00 | WSU -8.5 | 138.5 |
| WSU @ ORST | 10:00 | UCLA -10.5 | 139.5 |
GUARDS WE LIKE
Buddy Boeheim, SYR (G, 8200) – Buddy is priced $500 off his peak from a couple weeks ago. The matchup against the Tar Heels is a good one though. Naturally, should be a ton of possessions and UNC tends to give up 3s. Buddy isn’t shooting great from 3, but he’ll shoot a ton. You can also play Girard in tournaments, he’s the best shooter on the team (42%) and considerably cheaper (-$1300)
Caleb Love, UNC (G, 8100) – Love hasn’t been shooting well from 3 of late, going 2-14 over last two games. Good game to get right though and should have some assist and steal upside as well. Price is on the high side, but 5x is reachable. If Leaky Black doesn’t go, Puff Johnson (G, 3500) will be a popular price saver. He dropped 26 DK after Leaky went down last game.
Mark Smith, KSU (G, 7600) – Pretty much the same drill for the Wildcats as every other slate. The big 3 of Pack, Nowell, and Smith are basically the entire team at this point stats wise. McGuirl is priced up so I don’t like him above $5k. Rebounds travel and Smith has the lowest price of the top 3, so slight lean toward him but Tech is elite defensively so I’ll probably avoid them completely.
Boo Buie, NW (G, 6700) – Both Buie and Audige are in play. Buie has been really consistent in B1G play, hasn’t showed much of a ceiling but should make an excellent cash play against up-tempo Iowa. Audige is a little more shot-dependent but the matchup here is solid. He can get cooking.
Tyger Campbell, UCLA (G, 6100) – UW is horrendous defensively, so fire away at any Bruin you’d like tonight. Campbell appears healthy from his shoulder injury and should have the ball in his hands all game, making him a fairly safe option tonight. I also like Jaquez Jr. (G/F, 6600) due to his ability to fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways.
Dashawn Davis, ORST (G, 6000) – Davis is wildly inconsistent, but so are the rest of the Beavers. When he’s attacking offensively, he has 30+ DK upside, but he also has games where he just looks to facilitate and not score. Oregon St. is only projected for mid-60s tonight, but if Oregon St. wants to pull off the upset they’ll need the good version of Dashawn tonight.
Jordan Bohannon, IOWA (G, 5700) – Form isn’t bad lately, even if you take away the 50 DK outburst. Price is a little high, but Northwestern giving up 37% from 3 and could have some assist upside. Tony Perkins went 6x against Nebraska in 26 minutes, by far his best outing in a while. Risky play here but worth noting.
Marcus Carr, UT (G, 5400) – Carr battled foul trouble against WVU, so he let a lot of folks down over the weekend. He also got priced up $700 against an elite Baylor D, so that’s not good. That said, he’ll need to be at his best if the Longhorns want to hold serve at home tonight. Carr and maybe Christian Bishop (F, 5800) would be my leans from the UT side, but there are much better game environments to attack on tonight’s slate. I think Timmy Allen will approach 4x as well, but his price jump isn’t ideal.
Daejon Davis, UW (G, 4900) – Davis is back and played 34 minutes last game, scoring 33 DK points. He’s an elite defender and while he’s not a huge usage guy offensively, he does enough to be dangerous. He’s shown 30 DK upside in the past, so not a bad GPP option tonight at home. Terrell Brown, Jr. (G, 9100) has finally showed his mortal side, finishing below 30 DK in 2 of his last 3, but he’s one of the highest usage players in the country so he’s always a live GPP option as well.
Adonis Arms, TTU (G, 4800) – The return of McCullar and Shannon hasn’t stopped Arms from producing. He’s averaging 5x this price over his last 5, scoring above 24 DK in 5 straight. He doesn’t have break the slate upside, but he’s been remarkably consistent at a cheap price point. You could also take a flyer on Santos-Silva (F, 4100). He’ll only play half the game, but KSU’s front court is pillow soft down low.
David Singleton, UCLA (G, 4100) – Juzang is doubtful tonight so Singleton should see another 20 minutes or so. He’s an excellent shooter and UW’s defense is not good. Juzang missed the last time these teams squared off and Singleton dropped 22 real points on them. Jules Bernard (G, 6100) will have really safe minutes tonight and 30 DK upside when he’s on, so plenty of solid options for the Bruins tonight.
FORWARDS WE LIKE
Keegan Murray, IOWA (F, 10,200) – My goodness, that’s a steep price. Murray averaging 4.5x at home and Northwestern isn’t going to scare anyone on D. Be tough for him to smash at that price, but he should be safe even though the Wildcats tend to pack it in. I really like his bro Kris in this matchup, should get to the line and get some open looks from 3.
Armando Bacot, UNC (F, 9700) – Priced up a hair after a 65 DK hammer against NC St. Another great matchup here, should complete dominate the boards, 20+ wouldn’t be shocking. Manek is a good option as well, should have some rebound upside as well and inside-out game should be effective against the zone.
Pete Nance, NW (F, 7800) – Nance’s price is stable after Penn St game where he went 3x. Matchup is good against Rebracca, even though he’s averaging 27 DK on the road. Not in love with him, but he should have some offensive rebound upside and high possession game could mean high shot volume.
Jeremy Sochan, BAY (F, 6500) – Price wise, no one really stands out for the Bears. Akinjo has been building small houses with all his bricks lately, Flagler is priced up, and Cryer should be back any day now. Sochan looked incredible as a point forward against KU, but I think that was more situational against Big Dave. While I don’t see him serving that role tonight, he’s still been a consistent 4x performer and playing 30+ minutes per game of late. Thamba and Mayer are fringe options as well, but with the balanced Bears attack there isn’t ton of ceiling here.
Mouhamed Gueye, WSU (F, 5900) – Oregon St. is a horrible rebounding team and giving up 55% from 2-point FGs defensively this season. Gueye has seen increased shot share of late and the freshmen is accurately priced. He’s shown 30 DK upside on occasion and even though this is a road game, it’s a good matchup for him. He’s still a freshman and very inconsistent, so he’s a GPP option only. As for the rest of the Cougs, Flowers (G, 7300) is going to get a bunch of shots up but he’s at a season high price point and Williams (G, 5900) price is too high for his current role unfortunately.
Benny Williams, SYR (F, 3600) – Sidibe and Anselem are firmly splitting time at the 5 at this point. To make matters more difficult to predict, freshman Williams played 30 minutes on the wing vs Duke. Coach Boeheim likes his athleticism and he took serious minutes away from Jimmy B and Swider. No clue if the Williams move was just matchup based, but you can take a moonshot with him against UNC.
Prize Picks
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Armando Bacot
OVER 29.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
Joe texted this PrizePick from Mexico, so he might already be on the sauce. It’s a massive number, but not many softer matchups than the ‘Cuse zone. He averaged 16.5 points and 13.5 boards against the Orange last year in a crowed frontcourt against a better version of the 2-3 zone than this year’s 220th ranked D.
– Joe (44-35-6)
Graham Ike
UNDER 38.2 fantasy score
A rare under from us, as we are certainly glass half full type of personalities. San Diego St. has the #1 adjusted efficiency D in the nation per KenPom and a low number of possessions and Ike isn’t a big shot blocker. Ike didn’t score over 10 points in any of the 3 games vs. SDSU last season, so I’m taking the under tonight.
– Byrd (48-36-1)
BUCKETHEAD BONUS (45-35-2)
Orlando Robinson
OVER 26.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
Robinson only got to 18 PRA against New Mexico the first time around but was limited to 15 minutes of action due to a minor injury that kept him out most of the game. Robinson is top ten in the country in usage and plays 30+ minutes most nights. The Lobos are an awful rebounding team and give up 54% of opponents’ points from 2, so should be a big night for the big 7-footer at home.