We have made it to the end of the week and DraftKings is giving us a nice little four game slate to love as we get ready for our pre-Valentine’s Day weekend. The slate tips at off at 6:00 when a top-25 showdown puts UConn @ Xavier. The Saints in the A10 (Bonaventure and Louis) are one of two 8:00 tips, the other being Nevada and Utah State from the Mountain West Conference.
Speaking of the Mountain West, there is some good teams hiding out of the national spotlight in that league. KenPom has them rated the best non-Power 6 conference nationally. If you take in some hoops tonight, I’d highly recommend watching some of their top teams. UNLV and Boise State is our last tip at 10:00 CST. The Broncos are currently tied for 1st in the MWC at 9-1.
Whoa, intro running long! My bad! Okay, wrapping up, the last item of note: PrizePicks went 3-0 yesterday! We are typically good for a winner or two a week, we will try to get you another 3-0 tonight or Saturday! Hope you all have been playing along and winning all that money!
2/11/22
| Game | Time | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCONN @ XAV | 6:00 | XAV -1.5 | 140.5 |
| NEV @ UTST | 8:00 | UTST -11.5 | 145.5 |
| STBON @ STL | 8:00 | STL -5.5 | 141.5 |
| UNLV @ BSU | 10:00 | BSU -8.5 | 130.5 |
GUARDS WE LIKE
Bryce Hamilton, UNLV (G, 8600) – There is one other player in college basketball that shoots the ball more than Bryce Hamilton. His gaudy 38.6% shot rate equates to about 18 shot attempts per game, 7 of which come from deep. Boise is stout defensively.
Kyle Lofton, STBON (G, 8100) – Lofton’s high price might scare off some Bucketheads, but the senior guard can fill up a stat line on occasions, most recently with a 50-burger against Davidson. He’ll play every minute and had 17 pts, 5 rebs, 5 asts, and 5 steals at St Louis last season.
Grant Sherfield, NEV (G, 7800) – Sherfield played 36 minutes in his return from a foot injury, so he appears fully healthy. This also marks the first time he’s been priced under fellow guard Devan Cambridge, Jr. While Cambridge is on flamethrower mode, I love the discount we are getting for Nevada’s best playmaker. Both are fully in play in the best overall game environment on the slate.
RJ Cole, UCONN (G, 7600) – In 11 of his last 15 games, Cole has gone out and gotten 35 DK. He is the heartbeat of this UCONN team. In a massive Big East tilt tonight expect RJ to be at his best and turn in another 5x performance.
Paul Scruggs XAV (G, 7400) – Two 40 burgers in the last two weeks, Scruggs is looking like the 2021 version of himself that routinely saw him priced well over 8k. Tough match-up against UConn, but the game is at home and his usage is 5th highest in the Big East. Should be good in cash formats with GPP upside.
Yuri Collins, STL (G, 7100) – The Billikens have only been on a slate one other time, and that was all the way back in November, so no real price history. Here are Collins’s last six games however: 5x/5x/6x/10x/5x/5x. His 45% assist rate is 3rd in the country, and he’s a capable 3pt shooter at 37%. Outside of playing slow, the Bonnies won’t do much to slow him down. The St Bonaventure zone gives up a 64% A/FGM in conference and 42% of opponents’ total points from 3. I expect Collins to be highly owned. If you want a pure shooter, you can also grab Gibson Jimerson (42% 3P) who also leads the team in shot share (26%).
Jaren Holmes, STBON (G, 7100) – Only three players in the country play more minutes than Holmes (94.5%). He can shoot the lights out on some nights, other nights he might literally hit the lights instead of the rim. Tough matchup against the Billikens, but worthy of a GPP roster spot as he won’t shy away from shooting. Adaway and Welch are similarly priced and extremely similar in profile and stats, not a lot to separate the three 6’5 starting guards, so you can roll with any of them really.
Fred Thatch Jr, STL (G, 4100) – St Bonaventure could prove a tough matchup for the slashing wing, but he has two 6x games and an 8x game in his last 4, so he’s capable of erupting on a given night. He’s a capable rebounder and defender, not a volume shooter but very efficient. He’s an excellent punt play on this slate.
Nate Johnson, XAV (G, 4000) – Nate is in an awful shooting slump right now and his price has plummeted from almost 6k to 4k. He still starts, but is losing minutes to Adam Kunkel (4100) so think of this as GPP only. When hitting shots, Travis Steele will ride his hot hand. In his one decent game during this funk he played 35 minutes and had 29 DK against Creighton (5/7 3PTA).
Max Rice, BSU (G, 3500) – If Minutes = Money, Max Rice is a good target. 35/28/35 minutes in his last 3 playing the off guard spot. He’s gotten up 17 three point attempts in those games and gone over 5x in each. If you need a cheap late night option the price is Rice.
Sean Bairstow, UTST (G, 3000) – Bairstow plays around 30 minutes a game, averaging almost 6x on the season at this price point. He was fighting an illness recently but should be good to go tonight. DK algos had a rough day pricing this slate and Bairstow is a good example of that. Ashworth is the other viable Aggie guard at $5100 if you want to super stack this game.
FORWARDS WE LIKE
Justin Bean, UTST (F, 8300) – With so many mispriced options, I’m assuming Bean will be one of the more popular plays on the slate. He’s averaging 18 and 10 and has 40 DK upside on any given night. He “only” had 31 DK against Nevada last time they met, but they’ll likely be without their best interior defender and it’s a full pace up game for Utah St. He really should be priced in the $9k range, so he’s a really strong option in all formats tonight.
Adama Sanogo, UCONN (F, 8000) – Broke out of a mini-slump with 49 DK last game. Was averaging 45 DK points in the 5 games prior to his three game dry spell. Assuming he is back in and engaged, 8k is a value for the Big East’s best big man.
Osun Osunniyi, STBON (F, 7700) – Normally we don’t highlight guys for defensive stats, but Osunniyi is #18 in the country in block rate (11.8%). The Billikens are ranked #323 giving up blocked shots, so could be a big advantage. His high price makes him a bit of a gamble since he’s not a volume shooter and won’t have a huge mismatch on the boards.
Jack Nunge, XAV (F, 7200) – We are still at Nunge for sitting on 12 points last Saturday for the final 17 minutes and ruining another 3-0 PP day, but he bounced back with 22 on Wednesday. He’ll need to be in good form tonight against UConn, if the Musketeers want to hold their home court. Nunge has been around or over 4x in his last 8, so good cash option with mid-5x upside.
Abu Kigab, BSU (F, 6900) – Leads Boise State in usage and shot share. 30+ DK in 3 of 4 and coming off a 45 DK outing last time. Armus (6700) is the better rebounder of the two, but Kigab’s minutes and general offensive ability make him way more appealing for just $200 more.
Brandon Horvath, UTST (F, 6400) – Horvath has seen increased minutes, shot share, and improved rebounding rates in conference play. He has over 35 DK in 4 straight, providing a great secondary scoring option behind Bean. Great price point and exposure to the highest over/under on the slate.
Donovan Williams, UNLV (F, 5700) – The UNLV forward is hoping to play after missing his last two with a knee issue. He has practiced this week and is a true GTD. If he goes you are getting a good bargain for a guy who is 2nd on the team in shot share (29.6%) and plays well over 20 minutes.
Francis Okoro, STL (F, 5500) – The pride of Normal West High School, former Oregon Duck, Okoro is in solid form going 5x in 4 of his last 5 games. He’s the best offensive rebounder on the team at 14% (#36), so he should have a big-time advantage against the Bonnie zone. The Bonnies don’t give up many points inside and don’t foul so some scoring risk, but worth a tournament roster spot on the small slate.
Will Baker, NEV (F, 4900) – I (Byrd) am contractually obligated to mention Will Baker when he’s on a slate. It’s weird, but just go with it. I’m assuming Washington is still out, so Baker should see plenty of playing time as a stretch 5 with rebounding upside. He’s volatile and there are a lot of mispriced options on the slate, so he’s not a must play but you can at least consider him if he fits your GPP builds tonight.
Tyson Degenhart, BSU (F, 3900) – He is averaging 14.4 points and 5.8 rebounds over his last 5 games and is priced under 4k. He’ll knock down the open 3, and is coming off a season best 39.5 DK effort. That is 10x if you are doing the math at home. Expect lofty ownership for this long lost member of the Hart Foundation.
Prize Picks
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RJ Cole
OVER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
He is a gamer and this is a big game. Has surpassed this total in points along in 2 of 3, and averages 3.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Last year at Xavier Cole went for 24-4-7. I think RJ goes OVER 22.5 PRA tonight.
– Joe (36-29-6)
Brandon Horvath
OVER 23.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
Horvath has over 30 PRAs in each of his last 4 games, so recent form is strong. Add in a fast paced Nevada team who is likely missing their best post defender and I like the path for Horvath to go over 23.5 PRAs tonight.
– Byrd (39-31-1)
BUCKETHEAD BONUS (39-27-2)
Nelly Junior Joseph
OVER 30.9 Fantasy Score
Nelly has been a popular play for the Buckethead Bonus. Siena will run shooters off the line, funneling everything into the middle. That’s where NJJ likes to do work. He had a complete scorcher the first time these teams played this season, collecting 21 fantasy points off blocks and steals alone. While we don’t expect a repeat, he should be able to do enough to get to 31.