GUARDS WE LIKE

Javon Freeman-Liberty, DPU (G, 8800) – JFL has 38 and 43 in his last two, so he is fully back. Took 22 shots in each game. In this match-up versus Georgetown the pace will be fast and the defense will be next to non-existent. A 50-burger is definitely within reach especially if David Jones (F, 7200) misses his second straight game. 

Fatts Russell, UMD (G, 7700) – Russell has become the alpha scorer on this team over the course of league play, closing in on 28% shot share. He wasn’t super efficient vs Indiana last time around, going 3-12 shooting. Will be a tough outing in Bloomington, so quite a bit of risk here but he will be more involved than anyone so always a chance to produce.

Andrew Nembhard, GONZ (G, 7500) – Andrew has 30+ DK in 6/7 games. He is someone we like when the Zags have a competitive matchup. His usage goes up in these games as does his ancillary production. Nembhard and a Zags big is an expensive stack, but with the slate’s highest O/U and some cheap San Fran counters, it’s very doable. 

Aminu Mohammed, GU (G, 7400) – The talented freshman has been a GPP roller coaster this year with highs (46 DK) and lows (14.5 DK) all through February. If you are looking to stack this game know that the GU production comes from Aminu, Carey (7000) and Harris (6600). There is no viable forward production on this team. 

Will Richardson, ORE (G, 7100) – With losses in 3 of their last 4, it’s desperation time for the Ducks. They did win the first matchup vs. UCLA in Pauley back in early Jan., utilizing a balanced approach as six Ducks scored in double figures. Richardson has been by far the most consistent Duck and he’s averaging 28 DK at home, so I think he’s a solid cash target at a reduced price point. Hard to fully trust the rest of the Oregon guards, but Jacob Young (G, 5500) probably has the highest upside of the other options given his price point. N’Faly Dante’s (F, 5700) interior presence will be needed against UCLA’s Johnson/Riley post combo making him a GPP option for our biggest risk takers.  

Johnny Juzang, UCLA (G, 7000) – I never play Juzang. Not sure why. Probably because of his love for 18 foot contested jump shots, which make me want to puke in my mouth. He played 34 minutes last game, so he appears fully healthy. He also had 23 real points in route to a 38 DK performance vs. the Ducks earlier this season. His price is also down over $1k from its peak. I’m turning into a stubborn old man at this point in my life, so I probably won’t play him again, but his price and overall matchup are pretty solid tonight.

Justice Hill, MURR (G, 6800) – Hill can absolutely erupt at times, just as he did last time against Belmont, going 8-11 from 3 for nearly 7x. He isn’t as shot-dependent as you might think, so but still more suited for tournaments. He’s an excellent GPP play at home tonight.

Xavier Johnson, IU (G/F, 6500) – Johnson hit 4x against the Terrapins last time on 1-8 shooting. He also hit 4x vs Ohio St last game and basically played the whole game with Phinisee and Galloway out. His price has dropped a lot recently, so I think he could be a really nice play at home, especially if the other guards are out once again. You can also pivot down to Stewart who played 31 mins hitting 4x.

Jaylen Clark, UCLA (G, 5700) – With Campbell day to day, a phoenix has risen from the ashes in Westwood. Clark has gone 49/35/36 DK over his last 3 as a fill in for several Bruin injuries. He had eclipsed 20 DK once prior to this sudden outburst and his price has gone up $2k, but if Campbell is out he’s on the biggest heater on the planet right now. Jules Bernard (G, 6100) would likely see more usage as a more proven commodity if Campbell was out, but at his price point he’s an option regardless of Tyger’s status.

DJ Horne, ASU (G, 5400) – Colorado is 310^th in possession length defensively and have limited assists this season, so a few warning signs for the Sun Devil guards. That said, Horne and Jay Heath (G, 5300) are consistently getting up double digit shots, so they have a chance. Jalen Graham (F, 5900) is in the consideration set despite poor recent form as well, but with an over/under of 133 the Sun Devils are mostly risky GPP options on the road tonight.

Jamari Wheeler, OSU (G, 5200) – Typically Wheeler isn’t much of an offensive threat but going out on a limb here, I suspect Frazier will be guarding the red-hot Branham all night, which could open driving lanes for Wheeler. Illinois has struggled keeping shifty guards out of the paint all season which has led to big games. Wouldn’t fault anyone for staying with Branham, who’s at max price, but Wheeler could be a sneaky GPP option for the adventurous.

Courvoisier McCauley, DPU (G/F, 5100) – Position flexible, cheap, and 7x last time out. McCauley has played more than 26 minutes in 5/6 and in those games has averaged 27 DK. The Georgetown match-up just adds extra flavor for Courvoisier.  So sit back, relax, and enjoy his production like a premium French cognac.

Gabe Stefanini, SFO (G/F, 4700) – So he is your exposure-based price saver for this game. I am ignoring his 2.3 DK first meeting with the Zags, he’s been quite good since then. In 9/1,0 he’s gone 4x or better including 5x/7x/4x/9x in his last 4. Stefanini’s production comes across the board with balanced distribution.

Andre Curbelo, IL (G, 4600) – Curbelo has struggled to find his role on this team since returning, and his lack of practice and conditioning has caught up. I do feel a break-out game is coming though, and Curbelo’s last two games against the Buckeyes were huge. I expect Underwood will want to get the pick and roll going, and Curbelo is at a price point now, you can take a shot with him.

Both Gach, UTAH (G, 4300) – I have a hard time paying up for Anthony and Worster, especially considering their sub-20% usage. Gach has shown some upside in the past and his length could serve them well trying to defend Mathurin. He’s definitely a boom or bust GPP option, but at least his price is cheap.