Happy Friday, Bucketheads. While it’s a travel day for Joe, given the smaller slate it’s enough for me to manage. We’ll roll with a one-time only “Musings of a Byrd Brain” today. If today’s content is a complete turdburger, you know who to blame!!
My initial take on this slate is play everyone from Buffalo Kent St. They are all underpriced, so I think that game will be the super popular game stack. In tourneys, you might want to consider a build that consists of less options from that game, as I could see the majority of lineups having at least 4 players from the first tip and potentially stacking that entire game. Should be an interesting small slate. I’ve included my initial thoughts below, but as always trust your gut and win all the damn money tonight!!!
Given the travel day for Joe, we won’t have a Saturday Shoot-Around podcast tonight. No PrizePicks today as well given Joe is unavailable, but we’ll tweet out some PrizePick options for the Saturday slate tomorrow morning. We’ll be back next week with our normal content schedule. Best of luck this weekend Bucketheads!! LFG!!
2/28/22
| Game | Time | Line | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUFF @ KENT | 5:00 | KENT -2.5 | 145.5 |
| RICH @ STBON | 6:00 | STBON -3.5 | 137.5 |
| SEMO @ MURR | 7:00 | MURR -15.5 | 151.5 |
GUARDS WE LIKE
Sincere Carry, KENT (G, 7700) – Carry is playing the 2nd most minutes in conference play with the 4th highest shot share, 5th highest assist rates, and top 15 steal rates. He has a 60 and 40 burger on his resume in the last 5 games as well. He did go 4-15 from the field at Buffalo back in late Jan. but given Carry’s current form and overall body of work he feels underpriced tonight. I think he’ll be very popular tonight and rightfully so.
Tevin Brown, MURR (G, 7500) – Brown is a little shot dependent, but did hit 5x vs SEMO in their first outing. Didn’t shoot it well last game but did play all 40 minutes and got up 14 attempts. I’ll keep riding that all day.
Malique Jacobs, KENT (G, 6900) – Jacobs doesn’t have near the usage of Carry, but he’s an incredible rebounder for a 6’3 kid and did have a triple double a few games ago. Jacobs is better suited for tourneys, but he’s priced fairly and certainly has shown some GPP pop of late. Andrew Garcia (G/F, 4500) is a boom or bust option as well, showing 30 DK upside when he’s cooking and single digit lineup killers when he’s off.
Jalen Adaway, STBON (G, 6600) – Sounds like Osun Osunniyi is going to give it a go tonight. They said he’s at about 85%, so obviously some risk. The one thing we do know is the rest of the starters will play almost every minute of the game, as the Bonnies don’t use their bench. Adaway has been the most consistent of the bunch, basically living around 30 DK these days. I’ll give a nice atta boy to Adaway for his consistency, which makes him a viable cash game target tonight. Given the max minutes the other starters see, they are certainly viable GPP targets as well.
Eric Reed, SEMO (G, 6400) – Reed’s recent logs: 8x/6x/5x/2x/5x. The bad news is, that 2x game was against Murray St a few days ago. You have to hunt for guys on small slates, so he’s an option and you never know what will happen one game to the next. You can drop down to PG Phillip Russell as well who is leading the team in usage (24%).
Ronaldo Segu, BUFF (G, 5800) – Of the Buffalo starters, he’s first in minutes, second in shot share, and first in assist rates. He’s got over 30 DK in 6 of his last 7. I’m no math major, but if he drops another 30 burger tonight at a sub-$6k price point, that’s a 5x performance.
Trae Hannibal, MURR (G, 5000) – Hannibal leads the team in fouls drawn per 40 at 5. SEMO is the foulingest (word?) team in the OVC, so it’s no surprise Hannibal shot 10 FTs last game. He can be hit or miss, but he’s solid at this price and should have a high enough floor. You can also look at Hill for a little more, not quite as safe and max price but has flashed a crazy ceiling at times this year; had 40 DK vs SEMO the first time.
FORWARDS WE LIKE
KJ Williams, MURR (F, 8600) – Williams is the price king on this slate and should be. He’s the best mid-major player in the country and will probably become a household name come tournament time. Should be a safe play, likely highly owned with limited blow-out risk due to the game being a conference tournament game.
Tyler Burton, RICH (F, 8000) – Burton put a hurtin on the Bonnies last time they met, dropping 36 real points on his way to a near 50 pack. Price hasn’t changed much, so Burton and Grant Golden (F, 7400) could have their way down low tonight. Golden had a double double in the first matchup for $600 less, so both are solid tourney options tonight, especially if Big O is limited by the ankle injury.
Jeenathan Williams, BUFF (F, 6700) – We’ve played Jeenathan quite a bit over the years when Buffalo is on the slate, so he’ll be a familiar name to our long term Bucketheads. Kent St. certainly remembers his name, as he dropped 25 points, 11 boards, 6 assists, and 3 steals on them in late Jan. en route to a 57 DK effort. Recent form is fantastic as well so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Williams as one of the highest owned players on the slate at this price point.
Manny Patterson, SEMO (F, 6100) – Patterson is probably the safest Redhawk of the bunch. Coming off consecutive double-doubles, 7x last game and 6x vs Murray St last week. He can provide some defensive upside so shouldn’t kill you, even if he doesn’t hit his recent highs.
Josh Mballa, BUFF (F, 5900) – Not as high of a floor as Jeenathan, but he’s flashed similar upside through the season. Mballa is one of the top rebounders in the conference statistically (including #1 offensive rebounding rates) with increased shot share in conference play. He has double double upside at a cheap price point, so another strong option for those searching for some MACtion tonight.
David Skogman, BUFF (F, 3900) – Like a fat guy visiting a bakery, there are lots of appealing options in this game. A couple of cheap heat seakers include big man David Skogman and SF Maceo Jack (G, 3800). Jack is a low usage player but has over 4x in 12 straight games while Skogman has the 13th best offensive rating in the nation and over 20 DK in 5 of his last 6. It’s ok to gobble up all the treats in this game, as the pricing allows for a massive game stack.
