Today is a good day to be a Buckethead. Why you ask? We have all 9 games broken down for the DraftKings Pull Up Jumper tonight that is going to award $5,000 to the winner. This slate is massive featuring games from the B1G, ACC, SEC and Big East. You’ll notice Byrd’s conference’s aren’t represented, but that’s okay! With slates this big we need to share the wealth, so his goodness will be included below.
Our slate tips at 5:30 CST with Purdue and Ohio State doing battle in Columbus. The evening concludes with four tips at 8:00 CST including an absolute shoot-out between LSU and Alabama. As of this typing the over under is at a gaudy 162! Now that’s massive.
Enough of the intro already! I’ll let you get into the research! Good luck making those line-ups tonight, Bucketheads! Win all the money!
This game figures to be an old fashioned B1G beat-em-up, so we won’t spend a ton of time here with so many other high scoring games on the slate. Both teams are enjoying three-game win streaks currently. Should be a pretty even matchup on the boards, Purdue’s opponents shoot 43% of their shots from 3 so maybe give Buckeyes’ shooters a small bump. This is the second matchup between these teams this season.
CJ Walker (G, 4800) is still out, nursing a hand injury, and Jimmy Sotos (G, 4100) is highly questionable. That likely means more minutes for Justin Ahrens (F, 4300). He’s your basic spot-up 3-point head, so don’t expect fireworks; 4x in last 2 games. Duane Washington (G, 6800) was stymied by the Illini, but I like him to return to form tonight, especially priced down $700.
To absolutely no one’s surprise, EJ Liddell (F, 7500) turned in another career performance against Illinois. Consequently, his priced has jumped up $600. This is a tough matchup, and his big games have come against more up-tempo teams, so this is a risky GPP play.
Justice Sueing (F, 6100) has started to acclimate to his new surroundings. He’s averaging 33 mpg over last 3 and gone 6x/4x/4x. He went 4x against them earlier this year. He’s a suitable cash play tonight. The other transfer, Seth Towns (F, 3600) showed a beating heart last game, playing 16 mins, going 5x.
Trevion Williams (F, 8600) had 37 DK against the Buckeyes in the first game, but worth noting, Liddell was out that game. Same ol’ story for Williams though, his biggest risk is PT. If he plays, he pays.
If you take away the Notre Dame game, Eric Hunter (G, 6000) has been fairly unspectacular this season, only hitting 4x once at that price in last 10 games. He did score 15 last time but only ended with 21 DK, a pass for me.
We’ve made a mountain out of Sasha Stefanovic’s (G/F, 5800) road splits the last two seasons. The empty arenas haven’t seemed to help much, so looking at another fade here. Brandon Newman (G, 5100) is coming off B2B 5x games. Bad matchup, but he’s playable. The rest of the boilermakers are dart throws.
The Vols will be looking to go 3-0 on the road in SEC play as they travel to Gainesville to face a Florida team that has lost 3 of 4 and will be without the services of Scottie Lewis. Tennessee’s 309th tempo and elite defense (#2 in Kenpom currently) will get a pace up game, as Florida is playing at a top 100 tempo. The Vols are 6.5 road favorites with an over/under of 137.
The Vols are super balanced, with 6 players between 18-25% shot share. John Fulkerson (F, 6800) is the primary scorer down low, but he’s only hit 30 DK once this season so limited upside. Josiah-Jordan James (G/F, 6400) is at a season low price point after a couple of stinkers, but this feels like a decent bounce back spot in a pace up game. Yves Pons (G/F, 5900) played 88% of the minutes in conference play last season, but only 71% of the minutes this year. We know he can do a bit of everything to score DFS points, but his upside is somewhat capped due to the shorter minute share and lack of offensive usage.
Victor Bailey, Jr. (G, 5500) actually has the highest shot share on the team and is priced down quite a bit. He’s a scoring dependent tourney option. Florida does limit the 3-ball, so that hurts Bailey and Santiago Vescovi (G, 5200) a bit. I still like Vescovi a bit more because he can facilitate within this pace up game as well. He lives at 4x and has shown upside as well. Speaking of upside, Jaden Springer (G, 4700) and Keon Johnson (G, 4500) are loaded with it. Both 5-star prospects are fun tourney options that can clear 5x despite the road matchup, especially without stingy defender Scottie Lewis on the court.
The good news is Florida is at home. The bad news is Tennessee’s defense is incredible. I consider all the Florida options tourney plays only. Tre Mann (G, 8000) has a slight price bump after hitting 30+ DK in back-to-back. He’ll have extra usage with Lewis off the court. Colin Castleton (F, 7300) is priced up a bit too, but well deserved after a 50-burger followed up by 38 DK the following game. If DK gave points for taunting, he’d probably be higher priced as well. He has a very Duke-like personality, imo. He’s in excellent form but obviously the toughest defense he’s faced all year too.
Tyree Appleby (G, 5000) has been a very steady presence in the absence of Scottie Lewis. He’s going to play 30+ minutes and 4x return is a fair expectation. Anthony Duruji (F, 4900) has more volatility to his game, but they’ll need his athleticism to compete tonight. Noah Locke (G, 4400) might literally play all the minutes tonight and Tennessee does give up 41.8% of opponents shot attempts from 3, which is what Locke’s specialty is. He doesn’t do much else than score, but he’s a potential punt option despite an overall strong TN defense.
South Carolina is one of those teams that has battled the virus more than scheduled opponents this season. Hence, they only have 6 games under their belt and we don’t know a heck of a lot about them. This was a team I was high on in the preseason, so maybe tonight we can learn a little more when they take on #19 Missouri in Columbia. The Tigers are a -6.5 point favorites and the over under is 143.5.
South Carolina is playing at the 21st fastest tempo in the nation, while Mizzou is middle of the pack. AJ Lawson (G, 7500) and Jermaine Cousinard (G/F, 6900) drive this pace while taking most of the teams shots (29% shot shares for each). After nearly a month off, Lawson has been 5x since they returned. Cousinard has been a little more up and down on the entirety of the season, so he is more of a GPP play.
Forward Justin Minaya (6400) has two double-doubles in his last three and rarely comes off the floor. He is probably fine for cash games. Keyshawn Bryant (F, 5700) is the GPP target here. He had a career high 26 last time out and is an amazing athlete.
Missouri has started SEC play 2-2 after a 6-0 non conference. Jeremiah Tilmon (F, 6700) continues to play well and his price keeps inching up. Having watched and played Tilmon in DFS for three years, I just can’t recommend. Dru Smith (G, 6300) and Xavier Pinson (G, 6000) are just better options, IMHO. Smith because of his complete all-around game, and Pinson because of his 30+ usage and shot rates.
After those three, Mizzou does provide some cheap GPP options. As always Mark Smith (G/F, 4300) is a dead-eye shooter who can get hot. Kobe Brown (F, 4100) is the most productive of the rotational power forwards. Mitchell Smith (F, 3800) will rotate in and could get an extended run if there is any foul trouble from Tilmon (19th highest foul rate in the nation).
It didn’t seem possible, but Wolverines fans were greeted with a large dose of B1G reality over the weekend as Minnesota pulverized their beloved at the Barn. They look to regroup as they host a tricky Maryland team that has collected road wins against Wisconsin and Illinois already. The matchup should heavily favor Michigan however, as their formidable front court should control the boards and force the Terps into tough shots. Maryland giving up 38% from 3 in the B1G this season, so upgrade Wolverines shooters. Michigan won at Maryland 84-73 on 12/31.
In spite of snagging 9 boards and some defensive stats, Franz Wagner (G/F, 8500) really struggled shooting against Minnesota, ending the day at 3x. He’s priced up slightly at home, but nothing scary about the matchup, had 37 DK the first time.
Fr. sensation, Hunter Dickinson (F, 7900) is feeling the grind as we move into the heart of B1G play. He’s gone 3x/2x in his last two games. Maryland has really struggled guarding traditional big men, as evidenced by Dickinson’s 43 DK performance previously. Great spot for him tonight at a reduced price.
Isaiah Livers (F, 7600) has a nice matchup on paper, but Maryland has excellent wing defenders, was held to 12 DK on 5 shots the first time. He’s a bit of a gamble tonight. More minutes for Mike Smith (G, 5100) if Eli Brooks (G, 4600) is out again. He’s not a world beater, but if he can knock a couple shots down, he can come through. Same for Chaundee Brown (G, 4200) who started in place of Brooks last game (4x).
Aaron Wiggins (G/F, 7100) had one of his worst games of the season against Michigan, but he’s shooting way better now. 6x/4x/3x/5x in last 4 games, plus with Eric Ayala (G, 6100) back, he can play more in his natural role. Both should be considered higher risk GPP plays.
Donta Scott (F, 7000) was the lone bright spot for the Terps the first time around. He can be hit or miss, but his rebounding proficiency gives him a high floor. I like him in cash games tonight. Darryl Morsell (G, 5400) is similar to Wiggins. Terrible game vs Michigan as well, but he’s played better of late; definitely a GPP option.
Illinois has lost its way, dropping two consecutive home games against lower-ranked opponents. They’ll try to get back on track before Iowa as they host Penn St. Illinois won at University Park back in December, 98-81. The Nittany Lions have dropped 4 in a row after losing to Purdue following a near 3-week gap. Penn St allowing 62% shooting inside the arc.
Ayo Dosunmu (G, 8800) dropped a true 50-burger on the Lions the first time. No question teams are angling to stop him and make someone else beat them as is evidenced by his decline in production. He’s priced down slightly from his peak, and I think this is a great spot to play him, even if he doesn’t quite repeat.
The same goes for Kofi Cockburn (F, 8200). His numbers, while great (double-double in 7/8), don’t tell the whole story of how dominant he has been. This team will go away from him at times. I think that’s a pattern that will change however. Really like him in this spot tonight as well.
Andre Curbelo (G, 5600) has really struggled since teams have finally adjusted how they play him. He’s priced low enough to play in GPP, but I want to see how he’ll counter the attention he’s getting in the scouting reports. The other freshman, Adam Miller (G/F, 5300) has gotten more comfortable on the other hand. 6x last game, and I like him again in this one. No one else really jumps out.
Izaiah Brockington (G/F, 6700) and Myreon Jones (G, 6600) each had 21 real points last time these teams played. With 27% and 28% shot share respectively, I think they’re fully in play tonight as well.
Sam Sessoms (G, 5300) went 4x back in December against Illinois but hasn’t shown much of a ceiling otherwise, only 8 DK in 18 mins vs Purdue, maybe more suited for cash play. John Harrar (F, 5200) is coming off an inspiring 14 and 14 game vs Purdue. That’s way outside his norm but is evidence he can be effective. You can play him in GPP if you’re a stat chaser.
Illinois giving up 37% from 3 in conference, so you can try out Seth Lundy (F, 5000) or Myles Dread (G, 4100) to see if one can catch fire.
LFG! Alabama and their 6-0 SEC mark travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU (5-1 in the SEC). Both teams are top 60 in possession length, so expect a lot of shots in a game that will get up and down with ease. This is the game of the slate in my opinion and it should be must watch TV for SEC fans, DFS players, and lovers of pacey basketball. Alabama plays at the 14th fastest tempo and 46% of their shots are from deep. Opponents are only connecting on 27% of 3s against LSU so something has to give. Vegas likes the Tigers by -1.5, but the real number here is the game total of 162.
At first glance the pricing is one-sided with LSU having the four highest priced players, while the Tide have no one over $6600. The big issue with Alabama is they spread the offense out so well. Four players average over 12 points a game and no one has a usage rate over 25%. This means you are looking for the player likely to get hot or have ancillary production that offers additional upside.
We mentioned the game beyond the arc so be mindful when considering John Petty (G, 6500) and Jaden Shackelford (G, 6100). The wings are awesome, but the triple is a big part of their arsenal. I prefer Jahvon Quinerly (G, 5900) and Herb Jones (G/F, 6600) because of their more balanced games, however, both have been banged up over the last week or so and might not be playing at 100%.
Joshua Primo (G, 5700) and Keon Ellis (G, 3900) can flash, but he need to be knocking down shots. In the absence of Jordan Bruner (F, 5500), the post really hasn’t solidified itself yet. Alex Reese (F, 4600), Juwan Gary (F, 4000), and James Rojas (F, 3700) will all share minutes and are GPP dart throws.
With LSU the production is much clearer. Cameron Thomas (G, 8300), Trendon Watford (F, 8100), Javonte Smart(G, 7900), and Darius Days (F, 7700) each are around or over 30 DK a game, with Watford the high man at 35. Thomas will benefit from the pace and number of possessions while Smart will run the team and stuff the stat sheet. Days is a tremendous offensive rebounder who has 3 double-doubles in his last 4, missing a 4-4 in last game by one board.
All four are safe cash options that bring additional GPP upside. Sadly they are priced extremely high when attempting to stack. Mwani Wilkinson (F, 4700) is the 5th starter who has been close to 5x in 2-of-3, but not offensively assertive enough on a team with many mouths to feed. Josh LeBlanc (F, 3500) is a punt option. The Georgetown transfer should hit value if you are looking for cheap exposure.
Try to get as much as possible in this game, but be mindful that this is a 9-game slate. LSU brings DFS studs galore, while Bama has the GPP darlings woven through their roster. A mix on each side will surely benefit your line-ups. Then all you have to do is sit back and watch the fireworks! LFG!
The Rebels invade Starkville tonight to take on the in-state rival Bulldogs as Mississippi and Mississippi State battle for the Magnolia State. Vegas likes the hosts by -2.5, but the over/under is a slate low 133 here. This makes the plays interesting, but complex.. much like the characters in the Magnolia movie.
Both these teams want to slow the tempo. State is the slower of the two teams, but they are a much more efficient offense. Sophomore guards Iverson Molinar (8200) and DJ Stewart Jr. (6400) each average over 17 ppg. Obviously, Stewart is the much better value.
Tolu Smith (F, 7800) does most of the work in the paint for the Bulldogs. He is coming off a 51.5 DK effort last time out and could threaten another double double here. Abdul Ado (F, 5600) starts at the 5 next to Smith, but only provides ancillary production. Jalen Johnson (G/F, 3900) starts but splits his minutes with Devion Smith (G, 3800) when State goes small.
Ole Miss has a go to player in Devontae Shuler (G, 7600) who is in good form. He is a safe cash game play tonight. Luis Rodriguez (G/F, 6300) is typically a good cash play with his ability to stuff the stat sheet all over, but lately that hasn’t been happening.
Not much has been happening for Romello White (F, 6500) either. He hasn’t cleared 20 DK in his last 4. KJ Buffen (F, 5900) has been surprisingly bad too over the last 4 not clearing 20.5 DK. Outside of Shuler the only viable option for me, given current form, would be Jarkel Joiner (G, 4200). The junior has a 27% shot share in conference play and is coming off a 22 point outing last game.
Duke is a 3-point road favorite at Pitt with an over/under of 141.5. Both teams are 3-1 in conference, so this is a big ACC matchup tonight. Weird statistical anomaly, as Pitt gives up a bunch of 3-point attempts, but they rarely go in, while Duke prevents 3-point attempts but the ones they do give up tend to go in. Random…
Matthew Hurt (F, 8900) has flourished with Jalen Johnson out, scoring at least 36 DK in 4 straight. He’s got 27% shot share and solid rebounding rates and has been steady all season long, even with Johnson in the lineup, but it’s a tall price to pay with JJ likely returning to the starting lineup. DJ Steward (G, 7000) has also exceled with JJ out, with 25% usage and some surprisingly good rebounding games. His price is down a bit and this is a pace up game, so he’s a GPP option.
As mentioned above, Jalen Johnson (F, 6000) has practiced all week and should be good to go. He was almost $9k earlier in the season, so as long he’s healthy, this should be a great spot for JJ in all formats. Coach K has leaned on the veteran presence of Jordan Goldwire (G, 6200), who has really improved this season. He’s a low usage player offensively but has steal upside for tourneys. Jeremy Roach (G, 5800) got priced up unfortunately, giving him a 4x ceiling, while there is no telling which Wendell Moore, Jr. (F, 4800) will show up, although most of the times it’s been the bad one.
Justin Champagnie (F, 9200) shocked the CBB DFS community by playing on Saturday and not only did he played, but he completely smashed. He’s provided more splash games than almost anyone in the country and there is nothing imposing about Duke’s defense. Xavier Johnson (G, 7800) is in excellent form as well. He’s got the #1 possession rate in conference play and #2 assist rates with 28% shot share. He’s another viable option at home in a game I think Pitt wins outright.
Au’Diese Toney (G/F, 7400) has more stable production, hanging around 4x all season long. If you are looking for value, Ithiel Horton (G, 4300) is playing 35+ minutes in 3 straight games and has 24% shot share in conference play. The former Blue Hen is very scoring dependent, but he’s in good form. Femi Odukale (G, 4300) has 4x+ in 3 straight as well, but his price is creeping up a bit and he did see decreased minutes with Champagnie back.
It’s nice to see Villanova hoops playing again for the first time since Dec. 23rd. There could be a bit of rust, although Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned, making Nova 9-point home favorites with a 141 over/under. Both teams play slow, but Nova is taking it to an extreme, playing at the 351st tempo in the nation right now.
Sandro Mamukelashvili (F, 8400) is priced down a bit, which is good to see. He’s got 28% usage and averaged 18 points/9 boards against Nova last season. He needs to reduce his turnovers a bit and we’d like to see more block/steal upside, but he’s always a tourney option. Jared Rhoden (G/F, 7200) is Robin to Mamu’s Batman role, playing 84% of the minutes with 23% shot share. He’s only exceeded 30 DK once in his last 8, so he’s generally more of a 4x option.
Myles Cale (G/F, 5200) price is starting to slip back down into the playable range again, as he’ll play 30+ minutes and they’ll need his production to compete tonight against Nova. Shavar Reynolds (G, 4800), Tyrese Samuel (F, 4100), and Ike Obiagu (F, 4000) round out the rotation. Reynolds has the steadiest role, especially with Aiken out, while Samuel may have the highest upside but needs the minutes to get there.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (F, 8000) continues to the primary weapon down low for Nova. He didn’t hit double digits in either game vs. Seton Hall last year, but absolutely gobbled up boards on the glass. Justin Moore (G, 7700) has seen a price increase as the #2 scoring option on a balanced Nova offensive attack. He’s a risky option given the price bump and fact his efficiency has dropped considerably in conference play. I prefer Colin Gillespie (G, 7300), whose price has dropped despite 30+ DK in 3 of his last 4.
Caleb Daniels (G, 6200) was seeing a steady increase in playing time before the Rona outbreak, but his price is jumped $1300 from mid-December. Someone tell Byrd to close his eyes, as Jermaine Samuels (F, 5300) is at a season low price point. He had 19-7-5 vs. the Hall last season, so he’s a solid cash game target at this price.
Prize Picks – 1/19/21
Xavier Pinson
Missouri
Pinson has 30% usage rates and Missouri’s implied total is 75 points, so let’s not overthink this one. OVER 20.0.
– Byrd
Isaiah Wong
Miami
Had 18 pts, 9 boards, 4 assist, 3 stls against them last year, so can exploit the zone, which is why I like him to go OVER 30.5
– James
A.J. Lawson
South Carolina
I love A.J. Lawson, and he has been in good form, so naturally I think he goes UNDER the 32.0 tonight. Mizzou is going to want to slow this game down, and honestly he has overachieved of late.
– Joe